AngelsWin.com Today: The Angels Top Prospect is….

[AngelsWin.com]

Last year the debate was Matt Thaiss vs. Jahmai Jones.  It was your classing prep vs college, potential vs actual, age vs refinement.  I personally chose Matt Thaiss, but did so knowing that there wasn’t a wrong answer.  Others on the staff disagreed with me, and agreed with me.  And here we are a year later, and it hasn’t gotten any easier.  In fact, it’s become much more difficult.

This year, it’s Jahmai Jones vs Matt Thaiss vs Jordon Adell vs Brandon Marsh vs Griffin Canning vs Jaime Barria vs Grayson Long vs Trent Deveaux vs Chris Rodriguez…..

Yeah some of these names are outside shots, but they all come with at least some justifications as to why they should be the top prospect.

Jahmai Jones – He was #2 on our list, and #1 on a bunch of others lists.  This year, as a 19 year old in the Midwest League, he’s held his own.  Jahmai should be the top prospect because he has a ton of potential and seems likely to capitalize on it.  He shouldn’t be our top prospect because he doesn’t have th most potential and is only having a mediocre season.

Matt Thaiss – He was #1 on our list #2 on a bunch of others.  This year, Thaiss held his own in Advanced A ball as a 22 year old, but made measurable progress and has began his tenure with AA Mobile with a bang.  Matt should be our top prospect because he’s the safest bet here to be a solid contributor at th major league level and will be doing it the soonest of anyone.  Matt shouldn’t be our top prospect because he’s only average on the age curve, doesn’t have the highest upside and his bat doesn’t play exceedingly well as a 1B.

Jordon Adell – Adell is off to an explosive start in the Arizona Summer League.  In fact he’s crushing the ball, flying around the bases, showing tons of bat speed and athleticism.  It’s easy to see why the Angels picked him tenth overall.  Jo should be our top prospect because he has the highest upside, was picked with the highest overall selection of any prospect in the system, and is crushing the ball in his first taste of professional ball.  Jo shouldn’t be our top prospect because he’s far from the major leagues, and we don’t know if he’ll make good on any of that production.

Brandon Marsh – Fans have been eager to see Marsh in action, and so far, they’ve been left wanting.  Btu still, in the few games that we’ve had the chance to see him play, Marsh has lived up to all the expectations and then some.  He played is seven games, put up numbers across the board while hitting .500.  He should be our top prospect because he’s the best combination of upside and performance (limited) so far.  His upside might be higher than anyone besides Adell.  He shouldn’t be the top prospect because he just hasn’t been healthy enough to justify it, and he isn’t a first round pick.

Griffin Canning – Canning had a great season at UCLA, but accumulated enough innings that the Angels didn’t see any upside in making him pitch.  Canning has a good combination of upside and closeness to the majors.  He should be our top prospect because there’s a good chance he’s our best pitching prospect with the most upside.  He’d probably be able to get major league hitters out right now.  He shouldn’t be our top prospect because he hasn’t thrown a single professional pitch, and even though the Angels felt comfortable with his medical report, other teams passed on him due to potential shoulder concerns.

Jaime Barria – I don’t think any prospect in the season has as much helium as Jaime Barria does.  He’s just flat out a good pitcher.  He gets hitters out any number of ways and already carries himself like a professional.  Jaime should be our top prospect because he’s only 20 years old and is nearly dominant in AA.  He made his way onto the Future’s Game roster, and Jaime had a really good outing.  He could be a mid-rotation starter in the big leagues at age 21.  Barria shouldn’t be our top prospect because he just doesn’t have the upside as others.

Grayson Long – Long is a big bodied starter that keeps the ball on the ground, gets ahead in the count, keeps his composure and is great at putting hitters away in the most efficient way as possible.  He’s climbed his way up to AA and probably could be in the starting rotation right now as a 23 year old.  Long should be the top prospect right now because he’s the most consistent, reliable option for the rotation right now, is young and could be a fixture in the rotation for years.  There’s no risk of him being a reliever. Grayson shouldn’t be our top prospect because he isn’t as young as Barria, doesn’t have the upside as Rodriguez, and wasn’t drafted as high as others.

Trent Deveaux – Trent is the highest international signing since Roberto Baldaquin, and before him, Kendrys Morales.  The Angels simply didn’t have the men on the ground to sign many of the top Dominican or Venezuelan prospects.  So they jumped head first into the biggest emerging market in the prospect world right now, which is the Bahamas.  Deveaux should be the top prospect in the Angels system because they spent 1.5 million of their international budget to acquire him.  When you compare that someone like Adell in terms of percentage, the Angels risked a lot more to bring in Trent Deveaux.  Deveaux also has maybe the highest upside in the system, and the Angels themselves said they picture Trent breaking into the major leagues at age 20.  Trent shouldn’t be the top prospect because he hasn’t had a single professional at bat, and is still a long way away from the majors.

Chris Rodriguez – Rodriguez has everything you’re looking for from a  pitching prospect.  Premium fastball, great breaking ball, developing slider, athleticism, and youth.  He’s mad this way to Orem this year and in his last three starts has flashed that extreme upside of his.  Chris should be the top prospect because he has the highest upside of any pitcher in the system and has already started showing he can make good on it and develop into a front of the rotation starter.  Rodriguez shouldn’t be our top prospect because he isn’t close to the majors, we have no idea if he’ll make good on that potential, doesn’t have a viable third pitch yet, and still has some reliever potential in him.

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[Second Base]

My own personal vote is Adell, but Thaiss is climbing too,

[Angelsjunky]

Nice piece. I agree with Scotty - Adell is #1, followed by Jones and Marsh in some order.

Grayson is a bit of an under-the-radar guy. At first I saw his name and scratched by head (proverbially speaking). But he also seems like a sure bet to be a solid major league starter, and perhaps as soon as next year. Still, when I think "top prospect" I think upside first and foremost, and I think Canning, CRod, and Duensing all have higher upside, and Long is more in a group with Castillo, Barria, and ERod. Nothing wrong with that.

Anyhow, I don't know how it happened but all of a sudden the Angels have a good farm system. I think it will take another year or two for BA and the rest to catch up, but I definitely think they're at least in the 15-20 range. Not quite deep enough or with enough proven upside players, but they've got so many talented outfielders and pitchers that I think they've jumped a huge amount.

[Docwaukee]

Nice job Scotty.  

It's fun again.  Some guys are panning out.  There's some actual depth developing.  Some huge upside.  Some solid high floor with some upside.  

To start the 2016 season, 6 of our top 20 prospects were drafted in 2015.  3 of them were in our top 10.  The rest were Victor Alcantara, Nate Smith, Kaleb Cowart, Joe Gatto, Kyle McGowin, Jake Jewell, and Kyle Kubitza.  A year later, only 2 of those guys is still in the top 10.  But that's a good thing they've been pushed down by better players.  Even our former #1 likely isn't even in our top 10 anymore.  Not because he played his way out of that spot.  He's still pretty much what we thought he'd be.  A C+ grade guy who will likely be a defensive specialist that could play everyday if some things go right.  

Not all these guys are going to pan out.  But some of them are.  Quite a few of them are going to see time in the majors.  

Can someone name the Angels prospects brought up in 2015 and 2016 that made significant contributions at the major league level?  Well, let's see.  Carry the 5.  Divide by 7.  Take the square root of that and you get ......0. zero. zilch.  There have been exactly zero home grown Angels brought up in 2015 or 2016 currently contributing on the major league roster.  The most recent position player is CJ Cron.  Drafted in 2011 and up in 2014.  Then Kole.  Then Trout.  On the pitching side it Middleton and Paredes brought up this year.  Shoe.  Bedrosian.  

I think we are going to see that change.  

[Angelsjunky]

Man, I forgot about Kubitza. The guy is floundering in AAA: .236/.323/.330 this year. Ouch. Wasn't he the guy that was going to replace Cowart as the third baseman of the future?

Not that Ricardo Sanchez is lighting up the minors: he's got a 6.23 ERA in A+ this year. But he is still just 20 and is striking people out.

[tdawg87]

I think most publications will list Adell as our #1 prospect. Draft position seems to hold far more weight than actual proven numbers, for some reason. 

Not to say he isn't deserving. He probably has the highest upside of any prospect we've had since Trout. And he's certainly showing a lot at AZL right now. 

I'd give it to Jones, personally. He's young, has a high ceiling, and has so far shown he can hit beyond rookie ball. 

My top 5 would be:

1. Jones
2. Adell
3. Barria 
4. Marsh
5. Thaiss

That's a pretty good mix of high upside and high floor guys.

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I think most publications will list Adell as our #1 prospect. Draft position seems to hold far more weight than actual proven numbers, for some reason. 

Not to say he isn't deserving. He probably has the highest upside of any prospect we've had since Trout. And he's certainly showing a lot at AZL right now. 

I'd give it to Jones, personally. He's young, has a high ceiling, and has so far shown he can hit beyond rookie ball. 

My top 5 would be:

1. Jones
2. Adell
3. Barria 
4. Marsh
5. Thaiss

That's a pretty good mix of high upside and high floor guys.

Adell had the highest upside of any player in the draft. He has the highest upside of any player in any draft since Brendan Rodgers, and before that, Harper probably..

There's upside and there's what Adell has.

[Second Base]

9 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Nice piece. I agree with Scotty - Adell is #1, followed by Jones and Marsh in some order.

Grayson is a bit of an under-the-radar guy. At first I saw his name and scratched by head (proverbially speaking). But he also seems like a sure bet to be a solid major league starter, and perhaps as soon as next year. Still, when I think "top prospect" I think upside first and foremost, and I think Canning, CRod, and Duensing all have higher upside, and Long is more in a group with Castillo, Barria, and ERod. Nothing wrong with that.

Anyhow, I don't know how it happened but all of a sudden the Angels have a good farm system. I think it will take another year or two for BA and the rest to catch up, but I definitely think they're at least in the 15-20 range. Not quite deep enough or with enough proven upside players, but they've got so many talented outfielders and pitchers that I think they've jumped a huge amount.

It'll take them longer that that. Those guys are still believing a lie from a decade ago and applying it to the system. It'll take different decision makers before they catch up.

[totdprods]

Jones is still my #1.It's pretty nice having more than two names to consider for that spot now though!

Gotta say, it's becoming suddenly very easy to put together a Top 30 Prospects list for the Angels. For several years, it was a clear (yet still usually underwhelming) Top 10 or so, followed by a bunch of shrugging and squinting and dreaming to round it out. I can rattle off 30 names right now without even glancing at the rosters and feel good about any one of them. 

In no order and purely off top of my head...
Near MLB contributors - Hermosillo, Fletcher, Paredes, Smith, Bridwell, Thaiss, Magnifico (partly because of his name, I admit)
Young Toolsy OFs - Adell, Jones, Marsh, Pearson, Deveaux, Vega, Sala, Hunter Jr.
High Floor, more advanced OFs - Lund, Montgomery, Sanger, Gibbons, Todd
Catchers - Ward, Wass, even Briceno slots into the depth charts
Back of rotation SP depth a couple years out - Barria, Long, Scribner, Canning, Jewell, Gatto, Castillo, Elvin Rodriguez, Jose Rodriguez
Younger IFs with promise - Williams, Rivas, Rojas
Younger SPs with higher upside - Chris Rodriguez, Chris Duensing, Jose Suarez, Stiward Aquino
Chingos of relievers - Hofacket, Lillis-White, Rogalla, Hanewich, Procopio, de los Santos, Isaac, Grendell

Guys like Cesar Puello, John Lamb, Manny Banuelos, Sherman Johnson, Zach Houchins, Forestt Allday could all contribute still too.

That's 50 guys right there....


 

[Angel Oracle]

Regarding the OP's post, hopefully by ST 2019, we will have a much better idea of where the current crop of prospects stands.   Sure looks a lot better on paper, than it did when Dipeutered was here. 

[Inside Pitch]

Jo Adell was a wish come true as far as pure upside goes.  He's got a lot of volatility in him regardless of how well he's doing right now.  Chances are he will hit a wall at some point when met with premium pitching because of how relatively raw he is but we haven't see a pure upside guy like him in a long long time...  Trout aside because he's Mike Trout, but you have to go way way way back.....  maybe Troy Glaus but he was a high floor guy to start with.   Adell is easily the biggest lottery ticket type in ages.  But like Trout, Adell is more than just tools, there was a very strong family unit there along with the family sports history.  I think it's that component away from the diamond coupled with the genetics that ultimately helps him reach his potential.  At least, I'm hoping.

All I know is Tank might remember how high I was on Glaus prior to the draft and the lengths I went to talk him prior to us drafting him.  I haven't been that high on anyone the Angels had a legit shot to draft since Glaus until Adell.  To be fair, it's partially because they just had not been in the top 10 in a long, long time.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Jones is still my #1.It's pretty nice having more than two names to consider for that spot now though!

Gotta say, it's becoming suddenly very easy to put together a Top 30 Prospects list for the Angels. For several years, it was a clear (yet still usually underwhelming) Top 10 or so, followed by a bunch of shrugging and squinting and dreaming to round it out. I can rattle off 30 names right now without even glancing at the rosters and feel good about any one of them. 

In no order and purely off top of my head...
Near MLB contributors - Hermosillo, Fletcher, Paredes, Smith, Bridwell, Thaiss, Magnifico (partly because of his name, I admit)
Young Toolsy OFs - Adell, Jones, Marsh, Pearson, Deveaux, Vega, Sala, Hunter Jr.
High Floor, more advanced OFs - Lund, Montgomery, Sanger, Gibbons, Todd
Catchers - Ward, Wass, even Briceno slots into the depth charts
Back of rotation SP depth a couple years out - Barria, Long, Scribner, Canning, Jewell, Gatto, Castillo, Elvin Rodriguez, Jose Rodriguez
Younger IFs with promise - Williams, Rivas, Rojas
Younger SPs with higher upside - Chris Rodriguez, Chris Duensing, Jose Suarez, Stiward Aquino
Chingos of relievers - Hofacket, Lillis-White, Rogalla, Hanewich, Procopio, de los Santos, Isaac, Grendell

Guys like Cesar Puello, John Lamb, Manny Banuelos, Sherman Johnson, Zach Houchins, Forestt Allday could all contribute still too.

That's 50 guys right there....


 

The Top 20 were super easy. It's when you get to 25-30 that you're seriously excluding some good prospects. The Angels have had a deep system for quite some time. A lot of prospects that could fulfill reserve roles in the majors. What they lacked was upside. 

That just isn't the case anymore.

[ten ocho recon scout]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Man, I forgot about Kubitza. The guy is floundering in AAA: .236/.323/.330 this year. Ouch. Wasn't he the guy that was going to replace Cowart as the third baseman of the future?

Not that Ricardo Sanchez is lighting up the minors: he's got a 6.23 ERA in A+ this year. But he is still just 20 and is striking people out.

Yeah, kubitza was supposed to be manning 3B right now with a casey kotchman bat.

[ettin]

I think Jordon Adell is my #1. The only person that does not belong on that top 10 list is Trent Devereux in my opinion. The rest are all Top 10 material.

[Second Base]

15 minutes ago, ettin said:

I think Jordon Adell is my #1. The only person that does not belong on that top 10 list is Trent Devereux in my opinion. The rest are all Top 10 material.

I mean look at it like this, 1.5 million dollar signing bonus is in line with a second round pick. That's what Deaveaux got. Plus when you consider how much money is allotted for the draft vs what is allowed for international signings, he took up a greater percentage of that budget than Adell did our draft. And his scouting report indicates great foot sped and bat speed, which reads the same as Adell. 

There'sa case to be made.

Me personally, I rank him right next to Pearson.

[Angelsjunky]

Trent Deveaux could be Roberto Baldoquin or he could be Andrew McCutchen. We really need at least a few weeks of professional ball (beyond DSL) to have some semblance of who he is.

Speaking of which, where is Deveaux right now and when is he going to join a club, and where? Does he get AZL time this year?

[JarsOfClay]

20 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Adell had the highest upside of any player in the draft. He has the highest upside of any player in any draft since Brendan Rodgers, and before that, Harper probably..

There's upside and there's what Adell has.

Why did he fall all the way to the angels in the draft then?

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, JarsOfClay said:

Why did he fall all the way to the angels in the draft then?

He "fell" to 10.  He was the most athletic but also the most raw.  The scouts also questioned the talent he faced.  At least that's my memory of what I read pre-draft.

[JarsOfClay]

44 minutes ago, Stradling said:

He "fell" to 10.  He was the most athletic but also the most raw.  The scouts also questioned the talent he faced.  At least that's my memory of what I read pre-draft.

Oh ok, thanks for clarifying.

[Inside Pitch]

5 hours ago, Stradling said:

He "fell" to 10.  He was the most athletic but also the most raw.  The scouts also questioned the talent he faced.  At least that's my memory of what I read pre-draft.

I don't so much think he fell as much as he was the fastest hardest riser in the draft class.  Sometimes when a guy sees that much of rise it's dismissed.

Adell was a known guy for years, there was always a buzz and there had been talk of him as a potential first rounder for 2-3 years -- but as you pointed out the concerns were always about the parts of his game that weren't as advanced.   Everyone believed he had it in him to do the things he did his final year of HS, but few expected him to do them as quickly as he did..   His dominance was so swift and so complete this year people stopped talking about how he was destroying the competition and started questioning if the level of competition was lacking.  

The Angels were on him early, they made their intentions known if not verbally by virtue of having people at most of his games...   Where other teams may have seen him once or twice and been more willing go with the notion the competition was weak, the Angels saw enough of him to bank on it being him being that good...

Early results are making the Angels look very good.

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I don't so much think he fell as much as he was the fastest hardest riser in the draft class.  Sometimes when a guy sees that much of rise it's dismissed.

Adell was a known guy for years, there was always a buzz and there had been talk of him as a potential first rounder for 2-3 years -- but as you pointed out the concerns were always about the parts of his game that weren't as advanced.   Everyone believed he had it in him to do the things he did his final year of HS, but few expected him to do them as quickly as he did..   His dominance was so swift and so complete this year people stopped talking about how he was destroying the competition and started questioning if the level of competition was lacking.  

The Angels were on him early, they made their intentions known if not verbally by virtue of having people at most of his games...   Where other teams may have seen him once or twice and been more willing go with the notion the competition was weak, the Angels saw enough of him to bank on it being him being that good...

Early results are making the Angels look very good.

Scholarship to Louisville by the 8th grade, major league teams talking to him by his sophomore year. 

[Dave Saltzer]

On 7/14/2017 at 9:51 AM, Inside Pitch said:

Jo Adell was a wish come true as far as pure upside goes.  He's got a lot of volatility in him regardless of how well he's doing right now.  Chances are he will hit a wall at some point when met with premium pitching because of how relatively raw he is but we haven't see a pure upside guy like him in a long long time...  Trout aside because he's Mike Trout, but you have to go way way way back.....  maybe Troy Glaus but he was a high floor guy to start with.   Adell is easily the biggest lottery ticket type in ages.  But like Trout, Adell is more than just tools, there was a very strong family unit there along with the family sports history.  I think it's that component away from the diamond coupled with the genetics that ultimately helps him reach his potential.  At least, I'm hoping.

All I know is Tank might remember how high I was on Glaus prior to the draft and the lengths I went to talk him prior to us drafting him.  I haven't been that high on anyone the Angels had a legit shot to draft since Glaus until Adell.  To be fair, it's partially because they just had not been in the top 10 in a long, long time.

I'm very excited about Adell. Getting him was really exciting this season. However, I wouldn't go back that far for someone that I was tbat excited about. I was very thrilled when Weaver fell to us and we took him. I saw him pitch a few times in college and knew that his stuff would be 'ace' stuff in the Majors. For a while, it was. And it is so sad to see him still playing when his stuff is so far gone. 

[Inside Pitch]

42 minutes ago, Dave Saltzer said:

I'm very excited about Adell. Getting him was really exciting this season. However, I wouldn't go back that far for someone that I was tbat excited about. I was very thrilled when Weaver fell to us and we took him. I saw him pitch a few times in college and knew that his stuff would be 'ace' stuff in the Majors. For a while, it was. And it is so sad to see him still playing when his stuff is so far gone. 

I was talking position players.....  I should have said that, my bad.   

Weaver was definitely someone that was worth getting excited about -- not sure I ever saw him a pure upside type, but he was as sure a bet as we had drafted when it came to pitchers.

Frankie on the other-hand was exactly the sort of high upside type I was thinking of when talking about Adell.