Taking on an overpriced player?

[Farmbuildingfan]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

the good young pitching staff is essentially a hold over of drafts that happened before Dipoto.  JD's one good skill was getting young unproven, major league ready players for known  major league players.  As evident by the trumbo, conger, and kendrick trades.  Yet, even those haven't been and may never be fully realized because of injury.  Even though they were lauded at the time and are retrospectively good.  

Granted, JD and his team drafted pitchers at a disproportionately high rate during his 4 drafts, but 2012 and 2013 are likely to have produced zero everyday major league position players and zero starting pitchers with a chance of being in a rotation long term.  There is one guy who will likely have a solid major league career.  Key Middleton.  

2014 has Newcomb, the 15th overall pick but otherwise the same criteria applies.  No regulars unless a couple guys fin their way to the pen.  

2015 is the only draft that has some guys with potential and that might be because it's still pretty early for them.  Ward was a stupid first round pick but it allowed us to draft Jahmai Jones.  There is also Grayson Long (upside of a #2/3.  probably ends up mid to back end).  Sanger (OFer with some potential.  tough year last year because they tried to switch him to an IF position.  .848ops at A+) who probably ends up a 4th OFer or fringe starter for a couple seasons.  David Fletcher (has some starter potential but likely a util).  And a few others that you can dream on a little like Vega, Blumenfeld.

As someone else mentioned, we won't be trading our top prospects for short term players anymore.  It will only be for guys like Simmons.  Young and club controlled.  

We've got several guys who are fringy top 100 but at least top 150.  Jones, Adell, Marsh, Barria, Thaiss, Rodriguez, Canning.  We already had a few of those guys coming into this season with major holes to fill at LF, 2b, in the pen and SP.  We used none of them to do so.  

The philosophy will never change.  The major league club comes first.  What has changed is how to make sure that happens long term.  Two years in a row we've maxed out our draft allotment including absorbing penalties and we are likely to do the same on the international front.  We're still gonna make trades and sign free agents but going forward, it won't be an either/or in terms of player development.  it will be and.  that will be the big difference.  

It still boils down to a team's ability to assess talent.  Eppler's crew seems pretty solid in that regard so far.  But guys like Adell and Deveaux need to pan out.  As important, however, is that so do guys like Brennon Lund, Troy Montgomery, Cole Duensing, Nonie Williams, Jerryell Rivera, and Griffin Canning.  Not all of them of course, but at least a couple.  That's where the rubber will meet the road.  

A great write up Thanks!

Where is the evidence,  either direct or indirect, that indicates that top prospects will no longer be traded for short term players?

I sure hope you are right, and this is merely common sense, but there was no common sense in Pujos of Hamilton, so common sense is not evidence.

Eppier increases the probability, but I would like to know if there are any quotes from Moreno, Eppier, or anyone else within the organization that demonstrates an end to short term players for prospects.

[Lou]

12 minutes ago, Farmbuildingfan said:

Where is the evidence,  either direct or indirect, that indicates that top prospects will no longer be traded for short term players?

You're asking for evidence of something happening in the future? 

[Lou]

14 minutes ago, Farmbuildingfan said:

I would like to know if there are any quotes from Moreno, Eppier, or anyone else within the organization that demonstrates an end to short term players for prospects.

You will never read anything from Arte, Eppier, etc remotely close to what you are asking for. 

[Farmbuildingfan]

5 minutes ago, Lou said:

You're asking for evidence of something happening in the future? 

A couple here have said the Angels are not going to trade prospects for short term players.

We can't predict the future, but they must know or have heard something to indicate this will likely be the case.

If they say this because it is common sense, then there is no evidence, since the owner has defied common sense on multiple occasions.

[Lou]

Just now, Farmbuildingfan said:

A couple here have said the Angels are not going to trade prospects for short term players.

We can't predict the future, but they must know or have something to indicate

I'm guessing it's their opinions based on the last couple of years. 

[Farmbuildingfan]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

I'm guessing it's their opinions based on the last couple of years. 

I think your'e right, but there have not been enough good prospects over the last couple years to test their opinions.

[Homebrewer]

42 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Granted, JD and his team drafted pitchers at a disproportionately high rate during his 4 drafts, but 2012 and 2013 are likely to have produced zero everyday major league position players and zero starting pitchers with a chance of being in a rotation long term.  There is one guy who will likely have a solid major league career.  Key Middleton.  

2014 has Newcomb, the 15th overall pick but otherwise the same criteria applies.  No regulars unless a couple guys fin their way to the pen.  

This was a holdover from the Stoneman era, and iirc Stoneman was still part of the FO and involved in most if not all of those drafts.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Farmbuildingfan said:

A couple here have said the Angels are not going to trade prospects for short term players.

We can't predict the future, but they must know or have something to indicate this will likely be the case.

If they say this because it is common sense, then there is no evidence, since the owner has defied common sense on multiple occasions.

That same owner was around when Bill Stoneman wasn't trading away prospects.   

It's been 6 years since they signed AP -- 5 since they signed Josh Hamilton...    At what point do people stop pretending like the team is still spending like drunken sailors. Two years ago MLB had one of it's deepest FA markets in a long time -- the Angels passed on all of them.

Maybe, just maybe, there is a better plan in place now, the Angels are in a different position than they were back then..  Or I guess people can continue to ignore all the recent developments and pretend it's still 2012 and that the team thinks it's a player or two away from being WS contenders.

 

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Homebrewer said:

This was a holdover from the Stoneman era, and iirc Stoneman was still part of the FO and involved in most if not all of those drafts.

Stoneman was out after 2008 -- the guy that replaced him canned Bane.... and then Jerry Dipoto dismissed the bulk of Stoneman's scouts when he came on board in 2012 -- so no, Stoneman had little say or impact on what went on those four years.

[Homebrewer]

5 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Stoneman was out after 2008 -- the guy that replaced him canned Bane.... and then Jerry Dipoto dismissed the bulk of Stoneman's scouts when he came on board in 2012 -- so no, Stoneman had little say or impact on what went on those four years.

Stoneman was out as GM, but he was still a high level adviser and had an office for a few years after that.

[Inside Pitch]

7 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Stoneman was out as GM, but he was still a high level adviser and had an office for a few years after that.

And?   If he had any power over the draft then you'd think the team would have continued his draft strategies -- they didn't.

The guy he left in charge of player development and who he went to great lengths to bring over from TB (Bane), was fired by Reagins.   The Sutherland brothers one of which had been named minor league exec of the decade by BBA while in Montreal, Ken Forsch, all the scouts, and the international guys got fired by Dipoto...  There was no trace of the Stoneman front office after 2012.

It takes a great deal of creative thinking to believe that the GM that fired the entire scouting department then turned around and drafted based on the recommendations of the guy who's staff he just fired.  

 

 

[Angel Oracle]

The main players in this meh decade have to be Reagins, Dipeutered, and some Arte circa 2010-2012 off-seasons (Wells, Pujols, Nibs, and Hackilton). 

So far, I like the first year and a half of Eppler being in charge.  As long as Arte continues to leave the "scouting" to those that Eppler hired, it's good.

[UndertheHalo]

22 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

The main players in this meh decade have to be Reagins, Dipeutered, and some Arte circa 2010-2012 off-seasons (Wells, Pujols, Nibs, and Hackilton). 

So far, I like the first year and a half of Eppler being in charge.  As long as Arte continues to leave the "scouting" to those that Eppler hired, it's good.

Arte gets it pretty rough from us I think.  IMO he's a been a very good owner.  Especially considering what the Angels have had in their history.  

We were all pissed when they didn't make moves under Stoneman( other then the Vladdy and Bartolo deals) and then when he basically went video game and brought in Albert freaking Pujols followed by Josh Hamilton every one is all pissed about that.  There's no winning for Moreno with some people.  

Its unfortunate how badly those deals have turned out.  But all of us,  except I guess CALZONE were fucking fired up about it when they happened.  

Sometimes these things work out, I guess more often you get burned.  I don't think anyone could have really predicted how bad the Hamilton thing got.  All we ever heard was how he found Jesus and shit and was awesome.  I'm not gonna hold it against Arte.  I'm glad that they tried. 

 

Edited July 10, 2017 by UndertheHalo

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Farmbuildingfan said:

A great write up Thanks!

Where is the evidence,  either direct or indirect, that indicates that top prospects will no longer be traded for short term players?

I sure hope you are right, and this is merely common sense, but there was no common sense in Pujos of Hamilton, so common sense is not evidence.

Eppier increases the probability, but I would like to know if there are any quotes from Moreno, Eppier, or anyone else within the organization that demonstrates an end to short term players for prospects.

If there wasn't a paradigm shift of the franchise's philosophy as it relates to player development, wouldn't we have continued to trade away anything we possibly could in order to supplement the major league club?  even if there wasn't very much?  I am sure the likes of Jahmai Jones etc could have netted us better major league replacements than Danny Espinosa.  Your evidence is that there was nothing to trade so we stopped.  Which actually isn't true.  The gut job could have been even worse.  Because, to be honest, they went to the point of having one of the worst farms in the history of baseball.  What would have taking it one step further mattered in order to 'go for it'?  

People think that Arte was out there spending like a drunken sailor?  He is and always has been fairly disciplined.  The problem wasn't spending.  It was who he spent it on.  He took payroll to a specific level and not beyond.  He stuck with that through a couple of free agent periods where spending more could have made the team better.  Yet he stood fast.  

I am not concerned about the halos having an emphasis on the farm any longer.  Yes, we will make trades to improve the club but right now, I think Eppler has us going in the right direction.  

Arte is going to continue to spend money.  Count on that.  He'll take payroll to it's max level as it fits with his ability to make some money.  But that's likely right up against the CBT threshold.  Which is great.  

You shouldn't have any lingering concern about the above.  The only place where I still hold my breath a little is where Arte's influence comes into play when selecting free agents.  He has show that he wants marketable players.  Guys that will put butts in seats in and of themselves as opposed to letting wins take care of that.  So if you are going to be worried, be worried about him chasing the wrong guy and forcing Eppler's hand to sign or trade for him.  

As long as he lets Eppler do his job, we have a much better chance.  Then it's on Billy and his staff to improve the team.  Confidence in that is rising.  It ain't a done deal by any stretch, but only then will the vicious cycle be complete.  When Arte trusts the right baseball people to make the baseball decisions.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

Arte gets it pretty rough from us I think.  IMO he's a been a very good owner.  Especially considering what the Angels have had in their history.  

We were all pissed when they didn't make moves under Stoneman( other then the Vladdy and Bartolo deals) and then when he basically went video game and brought in Albert freaking Pujols followed by Josh Hamilton every one is all pissed about that.  There's no winning for Moreno with some people.  

Its unfortunate how badly those deals have turned out.  But all of us,  except I guess CALZONE were fucking fired up about it when they happened.  

Sometimes these things work out, I guess more often you get burned.  I don't think anyone could have really predicted how bad the Hamilton thing got.  All we ever heard was how he found Jesus and shit and was awesome.  I'm not gonna hold it against Arte.  I'm glad that they tried. 

 

Agreed, although i think were in the minority. My gripe is that he stopped spending. I would be ok if we got gunshy because we were spoiled fans, and wanted a top FA every winter (yankee fans). But stopping signing any good guys because you had a bad experience has killed us. Im all for developing a farm, and prefer it, but when you dont have one anymore...you need to sign people.

[WeatherWonk]

22 hours ago, Stradling said:

This is all past tense for the most part.  

It's present tense until we draft and/or sign someone who produces and makes it past tense.

The jury is still out. 

[Stradling]

12 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

It's present tense until we draft and/or sign someone who produces and makes it past tense.

The jury is still out. 

So the change in draft philosophy doesn't mean anything?

[Farmbuildingfan]

18 hours ago, WeatherWonk said:

It's present tense until we draft and/or sign someone who produces and makes it past tense.

The jury is still out. 

I would add....and is developed by the Angels FOR the Angels.

[WeatherWonk]

18 hours ago, Stradling said:

So the change in draft philosophy doesn't mean anything?

No, it's important. I just want to see results.

[Stradling]

3 hours ago, WeatherWonk said:

No, it's important. I just want to see results.

Results in drafting takes a minimum of three years usually five plus years. 

[WeatherWonk]

48 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Results in drafting takes a minimum of three years usually five plus years. 

Good pitchers, not so much anymore. Teams are bringing pitchers up earlier, before they wreck their arms for 1/3 of their controllable time. It's easier to finish out learning pitching in the majors than it is to learn hitting.

[Ender]

Yo, you guys want Cano?

[CanadianHalo]

2 minutes ago, Ender said:

Yo, you guys want Cano?

Cano for Pujols straight up 

[Ender]

10 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

Cano for Pujols straight up 

Yuck!

[Dick B Back]

How 'bout Albert, Cron, Espinosa , and Morin for Cano?