Preliminary Thoughts on the Offseason

[disarcina]

Starter Vargas will be a decent contract during the off-season..........some club will over-pay for him based on his near career season this year -- and Vargas -- with not much on the market -- will use supply and demand to his advantage to demand a multi-year deal and could get  it........

[jsnpritchett]

4 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

As for second base, we saw with Espinosa that defense comes first here, and with good reason when your double play partner is the best defensive SS this century. I think Eppler will go for quiet production, and that's Eduardo Nunez. He'll fit perfectly into the bottom half of the lineup and get himself in scoring position. He's been solid for the Giants and he'll be solid for us.

 

Nunez isn't really a 2B.  He's barely played there in the majors or minors.  He doesn't really get on base, and both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have him as a negative value defender over his career.  What am I missing?

[Second Base]

14 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Nunez isn't really a 2B.  He's barely played there in the majors or minors.  He doesn't really get on base, and both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have him as a negative value defender over his career.  What am I missing?

He hit .288 last year, .282 the year before. Stole 40 bags last year and is on pace for close to 40 this year while hitting .300. He's ill-suited for 3B but since then Giants have Crawford at shortstop and Panik+ more at 2B, he's slid over. 

Watching him more than dozen times since he was traded to San Francisco, I can tell you he certainly has the athleticism, reactions, lateral movement and arm to play solid shortstop (similar to Danny Espinosa in that regard). His fielding percentages back much of that up. I think it's fair to assume that since Nunez can pick it at shortstop, and has experience playing 2B in both the majors and the minors, which is a much less demanding position, the talent translates.

Nunez is a better player than WAR shows. Not a knock on WAR, I like it as a generally encompassing stat, I just think there are some guys it misses in, and the root of that in my opinion is defensive metrics, which I think are completely unreliable. That's one of those cases where the eye test is a better measurement.

Nunez is a solid player, and because of the lack of OBP, profiles quite nice in the bottom half of a lineup. Nothing wrong with .290 and 40 SB from the 7-spot.

[jsnpritchett]

38 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

He hit .288 last year, .282 the year before. Stole 40 bags last year and is on pace for close to 40 this year while hitting .300. He's ill-suited for 3B but since then Giants have Crawford at shortstop and Panik+ more at 2B, he's slid over. 

Watching him more than dozen times since he was traded to San Francisco, I can tell you he certainly has the athleticism, reactions, lateral movement and arm to play solid shortstop (similar to Danny Espinosa in that regard). His fielding percentages back much of that up. I think it's fair to assume that since Nunez can pick it at shortstop, and has experience playing 2B in both the majors and the minors, which is a much less demanding position, the talent translates.

Nunez is a better player than WAR shows. Not a knock on WAR, I like it as a generally encompassing stat, I just think there are some guys it misses in, and the root of that in my opinion is defensive metrics, which I think are completely unreliable. That's one of those cases where the eye test is a better measurement.

Nunez is a solid player, and because of the lack of OBP, profiles quite nice in the bottom half of a lineup. Nothing wrong with .290 and 40 SB from the 7-spot.

He has a .957 fielding percentage as a SS. The league average for SS during that time is .974. His career fielding percentage at 3B is .945, which is 13 points below league average.  In his limited games at 2B? Yep, you guessed it: below average fielding percentage. His range factors at all 3 positions are also below average.  

He'll probably cost $6M/year, if not more.   I don't see it happening.

[Docwaukee]

Nice job AJ. 

Lineup:

I always felt Valbuena would replace Escobar at 3b.  I honestly think that'll happen.  Cron will get the nod at 1b full time.  People aren't going to like this, but the platoon of them them splitting at bats has been shit and negatively affected both.  Personally, not a fan of Nunez or Hosmer.  I also think Moustakas is going to turn into a pumpkin after year two of whatever deal he gets.  Most would disagree, but I think Todd Frazier would be an interesting option.  I think he could have a bit of a resurgence on the halos, plays good defense and he'd be cheaper.   Probably get him for a 2-3yr deal.   He's an east coast guy though.  In the end, I think we dance with who we brought and maybe add a Moreland type on a 1yr deal.  I really don't think Cowart is in the teams future plans even though I'd like to see him get a shot.  

2b is going to be an issue again.  There isn't one player who I'd invest in.   I could see Eppler doing a deal for Josh Harrison like he did for Maybin/Espinosa.  A 1yr stop gap type.  

I think keeping Maybin in LF would be a nice option, but my guess is that he gets a 4yrs deal of around 60mil.  I am not sure they'll make a long term commitment to a LFer with guys like Jones, Hermosillo etc. waiting in the wings.  I see another stop gap coming.  Like a Saunders or Granderson 1yr type move.  

Bullpen:

Bedrock, Middleton, Parker (arb eligible in 2018), Paredes.  I think Eppler has tricks here.  It would be nice to keep Hernandez, pettit and Norris, but I trust him to get adequate replacements without spending the money.  

SP:

There are some solid options with similar profile to a bunch of guys we got.  Injury risks with good upside.  Darvish, Cobb, Chatwood, Pineda, Tanaka, Tillman, Arrieta.  Potential target is Tillman.  Something ain't right with him.  Velo is down 3mph.  If his arm is sound, he'd be a guy to take a flyer on considering he's a socal boy. 

At the end of the day though there isn't anyone I would throw considerable money at.  

 

The entire 2017 FA class feels loaded with risk.  I trust Eppler, but there isn't much in the way of solid bets.  

My ideal scenario is a catch-22.  While I would love to see us capture a wild card slot (division is out of reach), I hope that if we aren't going to that it's clear within the next 4 weeks so we can move some players.  That could certainly take the edge off our needs for 2018.  Parlaying a package of Maybin and Norris into the 2bman or LF of our future or a solid rotation candidate for next year would be terrific.  It would mean a pretty severe tank job over the next 20 games and it would also require another team in the WC mix to take off.  Granted, I'm not hoping for it, but I want it to be clear.  If we're 3 games back of the WC and 1-2 games below .500 at the deadline but we don't sell, that is going to be a tough pill to swallow.  

[Brent Maguire]

I see the Angels exploring the trade route for a 2B, 3B, LF or SP this offseason. They'll have money to spend but not enough to get everything they need in free agency. Finding an option to stabilize one of those positions for a few years(or more) would go a long way in creating a more stable roster, even if it means selling some prospects. It's going to be a fun offseason for sure because of the payroll flexibility and pretty solid free agent class. I'm excited to see what Eppler does this offseason, hopefully following a playoff berth from the 2017 squad. 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Brent Maguire said:

I see the Angels exploring the trade route for a 2B, 3B, LF or SP this offseason. They'll have money to spend but not enough to get everything they need in free agency. Finding an option to stabilize one of those positions for a few years(or more) would go a long way in creating a more stable roster, even if it means selling some prospects. It's going to be a fun offseason for sure because of the payroll flexibility and pretty solid free agent class. I'm excited to see what Eppler does this offseason, hopefully following a playoff berth from the 2017 squad. 

I could see us targeting Kinsler or Josh Harrison.  Or we could go with a more long term option.  Like a Cesar Hernandez or Yolmer Sanchez (2b for CWS blocking Moncada).

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

At the end of the day though there isn't anyone I would throw considerable money at.  

The entire 2017 FA class feels loaded with risk.  I trust Eppler, but there isn't much in the way of solid bets.  

My ideal scenario is a catch-22.  While I would love to see us capture a wild card slot (division is out of reach), I hope that if we aren't going to that it's clear within the next 4 weeks so we can move some players.  That could certainly take the edge off our needs for 2018.  Parlaying a package of Maybin and Norris into the 2bman or LF of our future or a solid rotation candidate for next year would be terrific.  It would mean a pretty severe tank job over the next 20 games and it would also require another team in the WC mix to take off.  Granted, I'm not hoping for it, but I want it to be clear.  If we're 3 games back of the WC and 1-2 games below .500 at the deadline but we don't sell, that is going to be a tough pill to swallow.  

Yes, exactly, this is the problem. If the Angels stay in the wildcard race they are losing a good opportunity to package some of those relievers, Maybin, maybe Yunel, to a contender with particular needs, and thereby address some of next year's holes.

And of course Eppler can't sell now even if they tank over the next week, because Trout is coming back and he'll want to give the team a chance to catch fire with their superstar back on the field. On the other hand, if they do tank in the next 1-2 weeks, maybe Eppler has a closed door meeting with Sosh, Trout and Pujols and explains why he's gutting the team for next year. Maybe they'd be on board.

I agree with your reasoning about Valbuena/Cron - both would likely do better with regular jobs. If Valbuena struggles to play third or doesn't hit, Cowart can always come in. If Cron doesn't hit, Valbuena goes to 1B and Cowart to 3B.

I still see a role for Cowart on this team - if only as a back-up 2B/3B. That's a useful combination to have on the bench. Maybe he earns his way into a more regular role. Regardless, if the team does tank then they really need to give him a solid 200+ PA to see if he can hit.

[ten ocho recon scout]

19 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Eppler will target, my basic prediction is that he continues his approach of going small-to-medium, and avoids and large-to-huge 

My approach is going from small to medium, too

[ten ocho recon scout]

17 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Anaheim is playing more neutral this year.

The people hitting against our starters are likely skewing it...

[AngelStew43]

Fletcher can replicate what Espinoza is doing with the bat for the Major League minimum.  Keep Maybin, sign Moose to play 3B, let Escobar walk.  Cowart can be the fall back option if Fletcher doesn't hit. 

We also need to look at adding a number 1 starter, so that we are not so reliant on Richards' health.

 

[Brent Maguire]

11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I could see us targeting Kinsler or Josh Harrison.  Or we could go with a more long term option.  Like a Cesar Hernandez or Yolmer Sanchez (2b for CWS blocking Moncada).

Solarte is another guy that makes a ton of sense for the Angels. He's roughly a 1.5-2 win player isn't too old(29 years old) and is owed 17.5 million from 2018-2020. He's the type of player who doesn't move the needle a ton but he'd offer a stable option at 2B while being an affordable option. 

[Dick B Back]

2 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

The people hitting against our starters are likely skewing it...

Especially the HR numbers.

[totdprods]

I'm operating under the assumption that the Angels will be buyers in some shape or form this next month, and that will greatly affect the offseason plans and needs. I don't see them buying any pure rentals, only someone that fills a need for the long-term. Perhaps a rental is worked into an expansion of a deal.

I could see them pursuing, and landing, a deal for one of the following. Could just be for the first player mentioned, but I can see the Angels either absorbing some salary to lessen the prospect cost or paying a little more and pulling in a rental in addition to a long-term acquisition to justify the prospect expense. 
1) Brandon Belt + SF arm
2) Sonny Gray + one of Lowrie/Alonso/RP
3) Dee Gordon + contract from Miami (Ziegler, Prado, Volquez, anything to eat money and fill a '18 need)
4) Yangervis Solarte + SDG LHRP (Hand, Buchter)

I think they could pull off one of those packages by putting together something from the following groups:
- one of our toolsy young OFs (Marsh, Jones, Pearson)
- one of our A/AA/AAA back-end SPs (Long, Barria, Jewell, Gatto, Castillo, Smith)
- maybe one of Middleton/Paredes
- one of Thaiss/Ward
- one of our redundant 40-man players (Marte, Cron, Perez, Cowart - possibly Ramirez or Bridwell if we're receiving a SP)
- one of our more advanced A/AA OFs (Lund, Sanger, Montgomery, Hermosillo, Gibbons) - though I don't think any have much trade value and are better off held on to

In addition, I expect the team to actively shop and be willing to deal Norris and Revere, regardless of their playoff hopes, likely for prospects, and that's about all I think they will sell. 

If they land one of Gordon or Solarte, they can shift focus this offseason to pitching and power, and wait out the lead-off market for Maybin, Escobar, or Lorenzo Cain. 
If they land Sonny Gray, they can forego the SP market entirely and put all of their money into bats of any kind. They may even be able to trade a SP for a bat.
If they land Belt, the unlikeliest option IMO because it brings back the most redundant player, they will still need to address SP, 2B, 3B, and OF in the offseason.

At the end of the day, I think I'd like to see them stun us all and pull off a deal for the Oakland package, landing Gray and one of their rental bats in Alonso or Lowrie, or even Doolittle.
I believe a TORP is the hardest asset to obrtain; we don't have anyone in-house likely to fill that role anytime soon, we don't have the prospects to land one of the big aces in a trade, and they rarely make it FA. Sonny Gray is the only 'ace' type that I think we could pull off acquiring (and their rental players fit our needs as well) and it would put us into a position where we can go into this offseason worrying only about our offensive needs. With Eppler's track record, I wouldn't expect him to spend like crazy on bats - he'd likely still go cheap at one position - but if everyone comes back healthy, we'd have SP surplus to deal midseason for bats, and extra arms to round out the pen for departing relievers. Eppler really likes having a lot of flexibility in how he can turn his roster over the course of an offseason and acquiring a good SP now really opens his options come offseason.

[Angel Oracle]

And TORP's cost an arm and a leg (and more) to sign as FA's.   Ask Arizona and Baahston how Greinke and Price are working out for them.   

[Blarg]

Re-sign Cameron Maybin

Let go of Yunel Escobar, Danny Espinosa, Ben Revere, Cliff Pennington, Ricky Nolasco, Jesse Chavez, Huston Dead End

Re-sign Bud Norris, Yusmeiro Petit,  David Hernandez, Andrew Bailey

Promote Cowart for third base.

After that Eppler will have to come up with the rest.

[totdprods]

31 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

And TORP's cost an arm and a leg (and more) to sign as FA's.   Ask Arizona and Baahston how Greinke and Price are working out for them.   

Yes - I don't see a TORP ever being worth it via FA. You're paying a million bucks a start these days, which is one thing, but rarely are they even TORP quality. 

I think Gray is attainable because some teams are going to be a little scared off by his injuries, size, and lack of dominance recently. If they're going to pay a prospect premium midseason, it'll be more for the guys like Quintana, Archer, and Cole or vet stability like Verlander. Its a good opportunity for the Angels to sneak in, sort of like the Rangers acquiring Hamels in a year that seemed like a move more for the future. I also think Beane is unorthodox enough to find value in what we're willing to offer.

[Angel Oracle]

46 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Re-sign Cameron Maybin

Let go of Yunel Escobar, Danny Espinosa, Ben Revere, Cliff Pennington, Ricky Nolasco, Jesse Chavez, Huston Dead End

Re-sign Bud Norris, Yusmeiro Petit,  David Hernandez, Andrew Bailey

Promote Cowart for third base.

After that Eppler will have to come up with the rest.

This is a good idea, especially if Moose's power is a one year fluke.

That leaves Eppler to solve 1B and 2B, and add a mid/lower rotation starting pitcher and LH reliever.

[Adam]

I don't know if I can watch another Valbuena at bat

[mulwin444]

 "Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, Shoemaker, Meyer, with Tropeano starting in AAA"

Richards, Skaggs, and Shoemaker need to come back sometime this season and contribute something - anything - to at least provide some confidence that they can be counted on for the rotation.  Richards has pitched under 40 innings in the past season and a half combined...Skaggs under 80 innings...Shoemaker has red flag-ish forearm issues.  We don't have a workhorse or even a quasi-ace to even consider at this point. 

I'd say, given the current uncertainty, you starting 5 next season is likely to still include Bridwell, Chavez and Ramirez

[Angel Oracle]

So appropo that Ric "high floor" Wilson's first ever selection turned out to be the mediocre CRONic bad bat

[totdprods]

36 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

 "Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, Shoemaker, Meyer, with Tropeano starting in AAA"

Richards, Skaggs, and Shoemaker need to come back sometime this season and contribute something - anything - to at least provide some confidence that they can be counted on for the rotation.  Richards has pitched under 40 innings in the past season and a half combined...Skaggs under 80 innings...Shoemaker has red flag-ish forearm issues.  We don't have a workhorse or even a quasi-ace to even consider at this point. 

I'd say, given the current uncertainty, you starting 5 next season is likely to still include Bridwell, Chavez and Ramirez

I'd go a step further and assume outright that Richards winds up non-tendered and Shoe needs TJ. Hopefully neither happens, but may as well give yourself some cushion now for '18 and expect the worst.

[Angelsjunky]

@totdprods, good stuff, but one quibble: I don't see the Angels trading any of their toolsy outfielders this year, mainly because their potential trade value is so much greater after they get more time under their collective belts - especially talking about Marsh, Pearson, Adell, and Bell Biv, but also Jones really.

I also don't see Barria being traded, especially with the huge question mark that is next year's rotation. Barria could be in the major league rotation.

The challenge is that most of the players that could bring back something useful for the future are players that are needed to thread the needle and take the wildcard this year: the bullpen, Maybin, Escobar, etc.

I'm Eppler, I'm working on three scenarios, depending upon how the Angels do over the next 2-3 weeks to take us up to the week before the deadline:

1) The team tanks and falls out of wildcard contention - sell, sell, sell. You trade as many non-essential parts for whatever good young players you can get. Likely players to depart: Maybin, Escobar, Norris, Petit, Hernandez (I think you keep Parker, Bedrosian, Middleton, Paredes as the core of next year's bullpen, and maybe sign one of the traded players in the offseason). Maybe also Chavez and Nolasco if you can find a taker. Unlikely but possible: Cron, Calhoun, Young, Revere, Marte, etc.

2) The team surges, especially with Trout coming back. This is the opposite extreme. At this point you look for a bat (Belt) and a starter (Gray) that can help both this year and in the future. You don't bankrupt the future to do so, but you can't get something for nothing so we'd probably see some good prospect traded - Maybe Thaiss/Ward, Long, possibly Barria or Castillo. But again, I don't see the toolsy outfielders being traded.

3) The team sticks around .500, not quite falling out of contention but not really moving forward. This is the hard part, and I think Eppler only makes minor moves - maybe nothing at all. But at most, he sheds redundant parts (e.g. Cron, Marte) for something reasonably useful.

But the main point is, it probably won't be clear which path he's going to take until the Angels either take path 1 or 2, or sometime in the July 15-25 range.

[totdprods]

@Angelsjunky can't disagree with anything you said. Barria to me is close to untouchable, Hermosillo almost to a degree too, simply because both are on the cusp of factoring into the big league depth, and we really can't afford to deal any of that away unless it's very redundant (Cron, Marte, Perez, Cowart) and I agree that all of those toolsy OFs only have room to grow, value-wise. I don't really expect Eppler to shop these guys aggressively, but if another team is interested in a Marsh, Long, Perez, Cron package for an impact player, there's a surplus to deal from of those types.

Someone would have to really like one of the toolsy OFs, because of all our prospects, those are really the only ones who have biggest potential. Someone like the Braves could have a lot of interest in Marsh, being that he's from Georgia and they heavily scouted him prior to the draft. Unfortunately, I think Jahmai Jones will probably be the one asked about the most, and he'd be the hardest to lose, but the presence of the toolsy OFs could make that loss a little easier to swallow. In those instances, if they had to part with someone as valuable as Jones, that's where I'd presume the Angels could up their return and try and expand into pulling in someone like Yonder Alonso.

[Angelsjunky]

Yeah, I expect Barria and Hermosillo to figure into the major league club next year, Fletcher, Long, and Smith too.

The other thing about the toolsy outfielders is that at least one or two of them probably won't pan out - either flame out somewhere in the minors, or never be better than a 4th/5th outfielder. I'd hate to trade, say, Marsh and then see him become a star on the Braves, while Jones turns into a 4th outfielder. I think Eppler will hold onto all of them at least until this time next year. By then we should have a sense of how quickly they'll all develop, as well as if the Angels have anything special--or anything at all--in the new crop of Dominicans, especially Deveaux.

But one more quibble: While I agree that the Angels have the most aggregate upside in their toolsy outfielders, they also have a handful of young pitchers with good upside: Barria, Castillo, Canning, the two Rodriguezes, Duensing, Swanda (in rough order of when they'll be major league ready). All of those guys have at least mid-rotation upside, and one or two of them could be better. But yeah, not quite as rich as the outfielders.