Who are Our Top 10-20 Prospects Now?

[Angelsjunky]

I'm especially calling out the prospect guys: @Dave Saltzer, @Scotty@AW, @Dochalo, @Inside Pitch, @Chuckster70, @John Smith etc - but please anyone and everyone feel free to make a list. I know we'll have a better sense of things in a few months, after the season, but it is fun to give it a shot now.

First off, graduates (no longer prospects): Alex Meyer, Keynan Middleton. I'm still considering Paredes a prospect as he just got called up.

Mine, off the cuff:

1. Jo Adell A- : Is there any question that he's #1? We need to see how he adapts, and how quickly, but he's got all the tools and the necessary great make-up to be a star. He might need some patience.

2. Brandon Marsh B/B+: I just have a feeling about him, which his first few games at Orem confirm. I know, small sample size, but I think he'll move quickly and should catch up or surpass Jones.

3. Jahmai Jones B: Not a horrible showing at A ball this year, and he's still young so I'm not too worried. I just don't think he has the upside of Adell or Marsh, maybe closer to Pearson. In other words, I think Adell and Marsh both have star potential, while best-case Jones and Pearson is probably more borderline star. That said, Jones might have a higher floor than any of them.

4. Griffin Canning B: Could be in the majors late next year, but injury a serious concern. Seems like #2-3 upside, with a high floor of #4 (assuming health).

5. Jacob Pearson B-: Like Marsh, I could be too high on this guy but I think he's going to be really good and advance quickly. The 2020s Angels outfield is getting very crowded.

6. Chris Rodriguez B-: Could rise quickly with a strong showing this year. Highest upside pitcher in the org?

7. Jaime Barria B-/C+: What a nice surprise Barria has been. Last year he looked a bit like smoke and mirrors, as his peripherals were mediocre, but he's continued to improve and is now a legit prospect - and still quite young at 20 years old in AA. Seems to be a classic high-floor, moderate ceiling type: in other words, a #3-4 starter in the bigs. Potential for a bit more?

8. Matt Thaiss B-/C+: The luster is fading. The high floor remains - that of a fringe regular/good platoon player, but I just don't see the upside beyond a Mitch Moreland type. Absolute best case scenario is Eric Hosmer, but we really need to see Thaiss start hitting better as a 22-year old in A+ ball. For comparison's sake, Moreland hit .324/.400/.536 as a 22-year old in A ball, similarly the next year in A+/AA; Hosmer was already in the majors.

9. Taylor Ward C+: Ditto Thaiss. Ward still could become an above average starting catcher, but is looking more like a future platoon player.

10. Cole Duensing C+: High upside but we just need to see more.

11. Jesus Castillo C+: Having a bit of a breakthrough year.

12. Nonie Williams C+: Upside, I know, but I'm skeptical. At first I was tempted to put him towards the end of the list, but the skill-set is so intriguing. As Sickels put it, at this point "he could be anything or nothing." We just need to see more. A year from now he could be in the top 5 Angels prospects, or he could be firmly on the Chevy Clarke career path.

13. Kaleb Cowart C: He's back on the list! OK, he's 25 and hitting well in Salt Lake, but I still think he can be an average regular in the big leagues - especially at 2B. Hope to see him soon.

14. Eduardo Paredes C: Hard to rate a reliever higher, but Paredes looks good.

15. Elvin Rodriguez C: Like Castillo and Barria, his upside might be limited but is a solid prospect.

16. John Swanda C: Hard to rate, but seems like good upside. I'm probably rating too high at this point.

17. Jonah Todd C: I have a Calhoun-esque feeling about him, although chances are he's more Lund/Montgomery and will max out in the mid-minors.

18. Grayson Long C: Or you could insert Nate Smith here -solid, but unexciting. Long is the type of pitcher who has a surprisingly decent career filling out the #5 starter slot on major league teams. Might be too bullish on him, and he probably deserves to rate above Swanda and Elvin.

19. Michael Hermosillo C: Struggling a bit in AA, but still young at 22. Probably projects as a good platoon player/4th outfelder in the Mark Kotsay vein.

20. Torii Hunter Jr C: A bit of a sentimental pick, as I was tempted to put either Leonardo Rivas, Ryan Vega, or even Brett Hanewich. Still, he's Torii.

Or something like that. The order is rough, but mainly meant to get conversation started. I'm sure I'm missing folks that should be on there.

Anyhow, I might be being overly optimistic, but it seems to me that the Angels farm has gone from fringe and bottom five, to solid and #15-20ish, with the potential to be top half by this time next year. There are more high upside prospects, and more solid grade C+ types. Still a bit thin beyond the first dozen or fifteen or so, but turning into a nice group of talent.

[Angelsjunky]

By the way, I list players in order of who I'd most like to keep. The grades are based on Sickels approach, which you can read about here.

[Second Base]

I won't get into specifics, but I love the way our top 10 is shaping up. I think the big thing I've noticed Eppler do is infuse this system with athleticism. Whether he's better at team building than his predecessor remains to be seen (I am optimistic), I don't think anyone can deny we have a more athletic farm than before. Adell, Jones, Marsh, Nonie and Hunter Jr. are all guys you can envision roaming the OF in the majors someday.

[Angel Dog and Beer]

Where's Hunter Jr. playing?

[Angel Dog and Beer]

I guess I can look him up myself. In Orem. Smashing .571/.625./.571 !!!

 

 

 

 

In 2 games. 

[Docwaukee]

As always with drafts and prospects, familiarity breeds contempt when you have a bunch of shiny new toys.  

I still really like last year's draft class.  Probably more than I do this one.  The big difference is having the #10 overall pick and getting a guy with superstar potential.  

1. Jam Jones - I have a tough time dethroning him from the top of my list.  Still one of the youngest kids in the league.    Rough start but owns an .874 ops over his last 162 PA.  K'ing less.  BBing more.  I guess he's not Mike Trout, but that's ok.  A solid year to year progression but him in the bigs at age 22.  He's still a legit top 100 guy.   

2. Jo Adell - too much talent to put anywhere else but here or at #1.  But I like to see guys get a taste pro ball before I lock them in at the top regardless of their potential.  

3. Jaime Barria - K rate climbing from last year at 6.0 to this year almost 8.  Almost 21 and doing well in AA.  Topped out at 117ip last year and already in the mid 80's.  So we might see him slow down a bit as the season wears on, but he's been terrific.  

4. Grayson Long - Just turned 23 and doing very well in AA.  They say he profiles as a 4/5, but I think there's more than that here.  

5. Brandon Marsh - love the start.  Gotta see him play more, but raw tools are excellent

6. Matt Thaiss - apparently, he's been pull happy and it's sapping his power.  Still, good discipline.  Personally, I would like to see them move him off of 1b.  At least to the OF or let him give 2b/3b a shot.  That would potentially improve his value.   

7. Griffin Canning - Mostly floor.  A little ceiling.  

8.  Chris Rodriguez - funky delivery but really good stuff and pretty good control for a young kid.  Long way to go.  

9.  Nonie Williams - too much upside not to have in our top 10.  A guy that, after getting a taste of pro ball and with proper instruction, could really hit the ground running this year.  

10. Jacob Pearson - got a good feeling about this kid's bat.  

11. Taylor Ward - Courtesy pick at this point.  Bat has come around a bit, but he's basically repeating A+ ball at 23.  Still draws walks, but no power developing (as he's hitting a hr and double while I am making this list) and all that defense we heard about is translating to being decent but nothing special in game. 

12.  Jesus Castillo - Nice pull by Eppler and Co.  Finally age/level appropriate so he's not dominating anymore but still decent with his A+ promotion and only 21.  

13. Brennon Lund - which everyday player (albeit in limited at bats) is leading the 66ers in ops?  Still 22yo.  Got promoted after a putting up a 137 wRC+ at burlington.  Haven't seen him in the lineup for awhile though.  Not sure what's going on with him.  

14.  Cole Duensing - very exited to see him this year.  Added that necessary weight everyone was talking about.  

15.  Eduardo Paredes - about to contribute at the big league level.  big arm

16.  Troy Montgomer -  did well at burlington.  Started a bit slow at IE but still getting on base.  

17.  David Fletcher - probably has util written on him unless the hit tool plays up and he can be a 2bman.  

18.  Mike Hermosillo - I was over zealous on my projections for him after last years breakout.  He's definitely come back to earth upon his promo to AA but he's still getting on base.  There's just been no power progression from last year which is where I thought he would turn a corner.  

19.  Zach Gibbons - Struggling now that he was moved to AA so he might be one of those typical advanced college guys who ends up a 4th OFer.  

20.  Elvin Rodriguez - could move up the list pretty quick or fall off of it at the same rate.  

Other guys to note

Cowart - not really leaving him so much as I consider him a major leaguer.  I know he's 25 and playing at SLC, but he plays gold glove defense and is rockin an .870 ops (129 wRC+ which is still excellent even for SLC).  He'd be the prototypical guy Eppler would pick up.  Former top prospect coming around and we'd all be gushing over what a genius Billy was for doing so.  Time to write this kid's name into the lineup everyday for awhile a see what happens.  

Brendon Sanger - 23 at IE.  .768 ops

Wade Wass - a sleeper pick of mine.  Is a decent defensive C but the bat has been really good in AA.  Maybe one of those typical late developing bats because he's been at the C position for most of his career.  .887 ops and leading the team in hrs.  Missed some time this year due to injury.  

Jake Jewell - back end starter projection doing well in AA at 24yo.  3.88 era.  

Connor Lillis-White - lots of k's.  24yo reliever at AA has given up 19h in 37.2ip with 47k.  

Troy Scribner - could be another Shoemaker type where his game improves with a promo to the bigs.  Almost 26yo.  More than a k per inning in his minor league career.  

Nate Smith, Kevin Grendell, and a few others who seem to have been mia due to injury.  

Keith Greishaber - 16th rounder from last year.  22yo at burlington with a 1.000+ ops in limited at bats.  Playing mostly 3b this year but was at SS/2b last year.  

A few from last years and a bunch from this years drafts as well as a slew of young foreign players who haven't played much as of yet.  A bunch of those guys with potential to be top 20 by years ends.  

totally forgot about Leon Rivas - he killed it in the DSL last year and got the call to the AZL where he was just ok.  off to a quick start with Orem.  Probably should be in the 15-20 range.  

[OregonLAA]

The knowledge of the minor league system is why I love this place so much. Thank you guys for always sharing what you know and filling us regular folk in on what's waiting in the wings. I love seeing that we have some arms down there. I actually really love bullpen arms more than anything. I can't wait to have a lock down pen again (almost have one now)

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, OregonLAA said:

The knowledge of the minor league system is why I love this place so much. Thank you guys for always sharing what you know and filling us regular folk in on what's waiting in the wings. I love seeing that we have some arms down there. I actually really love bullpen arms more than anything. I can't wait to have a lock down pen again (almost have one now)

same here actually.  Scioscia teams were never better than the one where we had dominant bullpens.  Even in the second half of 2014, there weren't any really bad options to choose from.  

Right now it's good news and bad news as far as relievers are concerned.  The good news is that we've got some really strong, young arms that are close to dominant at the major league level.  

Bedrosian and Middleton are both really really good or going to be.  Paredes has that potential.  Parker has been amazing but he's 32 years old. But we have him controlled for the next three years.  Pounders has some potential.  David Hernandez has been great but he's also 32 years old and a FA at seasons end.  Norris a free agent at seasons end.  Street and Petit as well.  Petit is 32.  Norris is 32.  Weird.  

Jose Alvarez, Deolis Guerra, and Mike Morin aren't very good and we need better options.  

So the good news is that there is a really strong Major league core in Cam, Middleton, Paredes, and Parker.  

The bad news is that Street, Norris, Hernandez and Petit are all free agents.  Best case if we fall out of the race is that all those guys get traded for parts.  Street was 88-90.5 mph tonight.  With a little luck he'll return to form and close out games solidly.  Giving him some value on the trade market.  I think the other three could net us a nice little prospect or two each.  Especially Norris assuming he gets healthy.  Usually that means a low minors starter/position player with some upside or a AA/AAA reliever with upside.  

Because the other bad news is that after Paredes, we've essentially got nothing in AAA and AA after that.  Or at least not much.  

Eric Karch - former pittsburgh draftee.  25yo with a 2.06 era in AA with 33k in 35ip.  

Connor Lillis-White - 24 yo 32nd rounder from 2015 with some potential.  

I had high hopes for Vicente Campos and Abel de Los Santos. The latter was doing pretty well but just went back on the DL

After that you've got to dig a little to find the next Bedrosian or Middleton.  

There's guys in A+ with some potential but at that level who knows what they'll be.  Sam Holland, Winston Lavendier, Samil De Los Santos.  In A it gets to be even more of a crapshoot.  

A couple guys to keep an eye on:

Jonah Wesely - Lefty with lots of K's and good stuff.  Not sure where his fastball is now that he's primarily in relief.  but he used to max out at 92/93.  

Kevin Grendell - lefty that had 92k in 61.1ip last year but just coming back from injury and threw for the first time the other night at Orem.  93-96mph now that he's in the pen.  Finished last year at AA so he could move pretty quick.  Thought he had a chance to see time in the bigs this year.  

There's also a few guys who could end up relievers like Gatto, Bertness, Pastrone etc

But overall, we're pretty thin on potential pen arms.  Those tend to come out of nowhere though and Eppler has show to have a knack for finding some scrap heap types that end up pretty solid.  

 

 

 

[wopphil]

Thaiss is a bust. His season has been a huge disappointment.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, wopphil said:

Thaiss is a bust. His season has been a huge disappointment.

I disagree he's a full blown bust -- but he's a bad fit for his home park....   It's dragging him down. 

Inland Empire LHB HR index - 70  

Inland Empire LHB GBh index - 87

Inland Empire LHB Run Index - 85

Thaiss home - .213/.300/.333 - .633

Thaiss away - .302/.389/.442 - .831

His neutral park numbers are pretty much in line with what we saw last year in Low A and I doubt there would be any talk of him being a bust if his overall line was more in line with his AWAY numbers.

Right now he's sporting a GB rate of nearly 50% in a park that deflates GB%.  Trying to yoke it out of the park isn't gonna happen because the park is even harder to hit for power in - in fact the only significant stat it seems to inflate is K rate.   Despite that Thaiss is well below the league average striking out while his walk rate is well above the league average.  http://www.statcorner.com/bat/642136/Matt-Thaiss

The problem with Thaiss is lacks the sort of over the top offensive skills you want to see in a 1B -- he's got a good batting eye and he will likely hit for average but he's unlikely to show the sort of power you'd expect from a corner IF postion.  

LF/2B -- his bat would likely profile much better.

You look at his overall batting line and it's hard to argue he deserves to be moved up -- I look at his walk and K rates, his league average HR/OF rate and I wonder if moving to a better offensive environment might not just get bat going.   Check the park indexes at Mobile http://www.statcorner.com/team/417/2017/Mobile BayBears

[Inside Pitch]

@Angelsjunky, I personally am holding off making any real lists until we see all the leagues up and going -- end of July we will finally see guys like Nonie and the sort.  I love the Adell pick, talked him up early and was over the moon he fell to us but I've always had a hard time ranking guys that just signed until they have a track record.  But if I had to make a top 5 based simply on tools athleticism it would likely go like this..

1 - Adell

2 - Jones 

3 - Marsh -- excellent start to his season

4 - Williams

5 - Pearson

IMO - these are the guys to be most excited about -- not necessarily the best prospects in the system or guys most likely to make it to the majors but far and away the best athletes with the biggest potential upsides.  Cole Duensing is the only pitcher I'd consider as a top 5 guy tools wise -- he's got a lot of projection in him.  We have a lot of guys that have enough to be MLB players -- but no Sean Newcomb type pure arm types.

 

[Angelsjunky]

Thaiss as a bust is an overstatement. A disappointment? Certainly. First round college bats should move through the minors quickly, while Thaiss is pretty much an average hitter in A+ at 22 years old. We can still hold out hope that something clicks and he starts to mash, but right now it's hard to see more than s future fringe starter or 1B/OF platoon type.

Maybe the Angels should move him back to catcher, where his bat would look better.

[Docwaukee]

None of the college bats from the first round have been all that impressive.  Especially the ones we had a shot at.   We probably missed on taking Blake Rutherford, but still a ways to go for all these guys.   

Thaiss is actually doing solidly relative to the competition.  Stat Corner has a stat call paV or plate appearance value.  It's kind of an oWAR equivalent and Thaiss actually leads the league in this category.  It's a shade misleading in that it's cumulative and guys come and go from A+ ball so you have to take it with a grain of salt.  He then takes a considerable hit for the positional value adjustment.  So he's not killing it as we can tell, but he's not anywhere near a 'bust'.  

He was considered one of the most 'advanced' bats in the system and that has certainly held up.  His approach remains excellent.  His LD rate is solid.  His GB rate is way too high for a guy with his pop.  Which lends to the issue mentioned in another thread where he's rolling over and hitting grounders to the right side of the infield.  

Interestingly, there are some similarities to Taylor Ward in this regard.  Granted, he's repeating A+ ball and is a year older, but he's shown some significant improvements at the plate.  

If Thaiss can figure out how to elevate the ball more, he's going to turn a corner very quickly.  But I still think he's better served trying his hand at the OF and maybe even 2b.  

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

@Angelsjunky, I personally am holding off making any real lists until we see all the leagues up and going -- end of July we will finally see guys like Nonie and the sort.  I love the Adell pick, talked him up early and was over the moon he fell to us but I've always had a hard time ranking guys that just signed until they have a track record.  But if I had to make a top 5 based simply on tools athleticism it would likely go like this..

1 - Adell

2 - Jones 

3 - Marsh -- excellent start to his season

4 - Williams

5 - Pearson

IMO - these are the guys to be most excited about -- not necessarily the best prospects in the system or guys most likely to make it to the majors but far and away the best athletes with the biggest potential upsides.  Cole Duensing is the only pitcher I'd consider as a top 5 guy tools wise -- he's got a lot of projection in him.  We have a lot of guys that have enough to be MLB players -- but no Sean Newcomb type pure arm types.

 

I like that.  

Mine would be:

1. Jones

2. Marsh

3. Adell (only because I haven't seen him play yet)

4. Williams

5. Chris Rodriguez

6. Duensing

7. Jerryell Rivera (don't know why, but because of the way the draft is now structured, that top pick after the slot rounds intrigues me)

8. Pearson 

 

[Angelsjunky]

That's pretty close to mine, Doc, although I'd have a hard time ranking them in order under those criteria - maybe more in groups:

Really excited about: Adell, Jones, Marsh

Borderline excited about/could be a sleeper: Pearson

Cautiously excited about: C Rodriguez, Duensing, Nonie, Canning

There's something about Pearson I can't put my finger on, that just really excites me - like he could sneak in and be a star. I could be completely wrong, but I think he'll progress fast and catchup with Jones in terms of when they arrive in the majors.

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

That's pretty close to mine, Doc, although I'd have a hard time ranking them in order under those criteria - maybe more in groups:

Really, excited about: Adell, Jones, Marsh

Borderline excited about/could be a sleeper: Pearson

Cautiously excited about: C Rodriguez, Duensing, Nonie, Canning

forgot about Canning.  He'd be my 9th then.  

[tdawg87]

1. Baldoquin

 

All the other assholes.

[Dave Saltzer]

I'm working on my list and maybe Scotty and I will get a little piece going on this. 

[Dave Saltzer]

17 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Jonah Wesely - Lefty with lots of K's and good stuff.  Not sure where his fastball is now that he's primarily in relief.  but he used to max out at 92/93.  

 

He hit 90 in his first game back from TJ surgery last year, and was 90-92 later on. I am planning on getting out to IE soon to go check the team out.

[Dugout]

Don't forget that Matt Thighs had a pretty good spring and held his own with the big boys. He has only been a pro for 12 months, I still like him.

[Stax]

Brendon Sanger is starting to figure it out. A bit old at 23, 24 in September, for Cal league. He is hitting .424 the last ten games. At tonight's game, he hit a hard one hopper at the second baseman and it deflected off his glove since he was just defending himself from the hard shot and staggering backwards from the ball deflecting off his glove.

[Second Base]

32 minutes ago, Stax said:

Brendon Sanger is starting to figure it out. A bit old at 23, 24 in September, for Cal league. He is hitting .424 the last ten games. At tonight's game, he hit a hard one hopper at the second baseman and it deflected off his glove since he was just defending himself from the hard shot and staggering backwards from the ball deflecting off his glove.

Sanger was one of my bold predictions from March. 

[Docwaukee]

Sanger is on fire.  10 of his last 16 with two doubles, a triple and 2 hrs after going 3 for 5 tonight.  Greater than a 1.000 ops over his last 100 plate appearances.  

He's been playing corner OF only this year.  Bummer they don't think 2b is a good fit for him.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

6 hours ago, Dugout said:

Don't forget that Matt Thighs had a pretty good spring and held his own with the big boys. He has only been a pro for 12 months, I still like him.

Matt thighs and the big boys sounds like a porn i accidentally downloaded once.

And finished. Had a good story.

[Second Base]

13 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Sanger is on fire.  10 of his last 16 with two doubles, a triple and 2 hrs after going 3 for 5 tonight.  Greater than a 1.000 ops over his last 100 plate appearances.  

He's been playing corner OF only this year.  Bummer they don't think 2b is a good fit for him.  

There aren't words to describe just how awful Sanger was defensively at 2B last season. I think it really bled over into his hitting. Sanger is a good hitter and he had a very poor season. I think now we are seeing who Sanger is as a player. A solid offensive corner OF.