AngelsWin.com Today: That moment when you realize everything you knew about prospects was a lie…

[AngelsWin.com]

By @Scotty@AW, AngelsWin.com Staff Writer

I’ve made it a hobby of predicting the future, quite unsuccessfully.  I am not a prophet (at least, I don’t think I am), but I sure do like baseball.  I loved playing it, watching it, dissecting it.  It helped me maximize my limited skills as a player and has led to some side jobs on the scouting side of things.  With a new family, I don’t travel as much as I used to, which makes the use of milb.tv all the more important.  While it offers limited views, it helps with repeat exposure and allows me to singularize my focus when I do go out to watch them play live.  Having prefaced all of that, so far this season, pretty much everything I thought would happen, hasn’t, yet.

Let’s start with our top picks…

1B Matt Thaiss – I thought he’d be in AA by now.  Clearly, such an advanced hitter with such a hot spring, playing in such an environment that would maximize his skill set would be too much for the Cal League.  As of writing this, Thaiss is batting a clean .250 with good-not-great power, but an advanced eye at the plate.  It looks like a full year at Inland Empire might still be the plan.

INF Sherman Johnson – I really thought he’d have it all together in his repeat year at AAA.  Not so much so far.  While he is definitely better than last year, he still isn’t hitting the way I thought he would.  On the bright side, he is still getting on base and is a very efficient runner.  Maybe it’ll be another year before his promotion comes.

RHP Vicente Campos and LHP Manny Banuelos – I did figure both would log some time in AAA, and while Manny has struggled finding the plate before, I don’t think I fully understood the magnitude of this.  Banuelos currently has more walks than strikeouts and has since moved back to relief.  Campos, who I thought would be a reliever has since moved back to starter, and while he was injured to begin the year, which I figured would happen, he hasn’t been able to find the plate at all, which is a very new development for him.  It’s early though.

OF Michael Hermosillo – I did figure his numbers would be held at bay in AA as a 22 year old, I didn’t think he’d be hitting .163.  He’s still showing solid plate discipline and a good combination of power and speed, but AA has definitely been a difficult transition for a prospect that had as much helium as Hermosillo did.

INF David Fletcher – Clearly, this was the year Fletcher would put the paper minors behind him and make the leap to Anaheim.  A third consecutive brilliant spring…this kid opens eyes with his defensive play, hustle and timely hitting.  The next David Eckstein…..except he still has’ conquered AA yet.  In fact, he’s hitting just .217.

OF Troy Montgomery – I knew starting the year in A ball was ridiculous, and so did Montgomery, and he showed it.  However, upon being promoted to Inland Empire, he’s hitting just .188.  The plate discipline is still there, but that line is ugly.

OF Jahmai Jones – I knew the numbers would be suppressed by the home field and league he’s in, but Jahmai’s early season struggles have been a bit of a eye opener.  He’s turned it around of late though, and his power and speed are both playing up in a way that’s quite surprising.

And now for the good surprises…

SS Roberto Baldoquin – I thought he was pretty much done after two terrible years in the Cal League.  however, upon his demotion down to A Ball, Baldoquin has actually been…..get ready for it….pretty darn good.  The defense looks better, more refined than it did before, he’s tracking the ball better, he’s hitting for some power finally, and he’s running the bases a lot better.  Perhaps the lack of expectations is just what Baldoquin has needed the thrive.

RHP Jesus Castillo – We knew keeping down in A Ball was a mistake, and Castillo showed his typical dominant self in  Burlington before earning a promotion.  Now at Inland Empire, or more specifically, the California League, Castillo is still doing a bang up job.  4.15 ERA in that hitter friendly league is solid, and again, more K’s than innings pitched and spotting his pitches….Castillo looks like he’ll be a major leaguer someday.

RHP Jaime Barria – Yeah, he was good in Burlington as a 19 year old.  But that was a pitching friendly league, and we have to see what he does in the Cal League before truly buying in.  53 innings, 46 K’s, only 8 walks and a 2.18 ERA.  Ummm, a 20 year old in AA?  Possibly the Angels best prospect?  Yeah, it’s all in play.  He conducts himself like a 10 year veteran in the majors.  He competes, nothing rattles him.  You can’t fake that.

C Wade Wass – Always a physically imposing player, never the results to back it up.  But now in AA, he’s hitting .277 with great plate discipline and very good power.   I remember a breakout that was similar to this in Jett Bandy.  Bandy didn’t have Wass’s power, but was a better defender behind the plate.  Catchers tend to take a bit longer to develop, and I think Was stay have turned the proverbial corner.

RHP Osmer Morales – A 2.63 ERA and more K’s than IP from a soft-tossing minor league free agent?  The Angels were excited when they got this kid, and he’s proving right now that what the Angels saw is real.  Read up on revolutions per minute with pitchers, or more specifically, spin rate.  Morales spins the ball and locates it.  The pitches are always moving and he generates swings and misses, caught looking, and weak contact.

RHP Troy Scribner – He has a 3.34 ERA in the Pacific Coast League with more K’s than IP.  It’s getting harder and harder to ignore this kid.

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[Inside Pitch]

24 minutes ago, AngelsWin.com said:

OF Michael Hermosillo – I did figure his numbers would be held at bay in AA as a 22 year old, I didn’t think he’d be hitting .163.  He’s still showing solid plate discipline and a good combination of power and speed, but AA has definitely been a difficult transition for a prospect that had as much helium as Hermosillo did.

Hermosillo is doing a lot better than his numbers would lead us to believe at first glace -- he's got some warts, his LD rate is down and his pFB% is a career low -- but those two things are likely connected and it's likely the result of how they are pitching him initially.  The reason to believe he'll get better?   He's put up a169 BABip... the league average is .313, and he's never posted a figure below .289 -- the guy has been hitting "at-him" balls..   Among the things he CAN control -- his unintentional walk rate is above the league average, and his Swinging K rate below it...   

So he's a 22 year old, two years below the league optimal age showing he can control the count .vs more experienced competition.   I suspect some of those lases he's been hitting will start finding holes and everything will start falling into place.

[ettin]

This is one of your best articles in recent memory, not so much for the player summaries but for the self-reflectance on your maturity as a writer and prospect-watcher. Most writers, after a period of time, grow and mature in their skills, wisdom, and knowledge. Great post @Scotty@AW

[Angelsjunky]

Good stuff, Scotty. I think ettin is on to something, and will elaborate on my take of that.

What you are talking about is inevitable for all sports fans: It is impossible for us to be objective. In this context, we tend to over-value our own prospects and when they don't fulfill our expectations, we think "something went wrong," when in fact what really happened is that our expectations didn't match the reality and were far higher than they should have been.

Going back about a decade, I used to fantasize about the future all-star lineup that included Kotchman, Kendrick, McPherson, Wood, etc. I remember thinking that Howie Kendrick was the next Tony Gwynn, Brandon Wood would hit 40 HR a year, and Casey Kotchman would be Todd Helton (at least I thought outside of Coors, of course). It is kind of embarrassing to think about. For a few years back then, I would predict stat lines for the Angels lineup, but after a few years I realized that my projections were almost always too high.

I'm not Chuck, but I tend to veer on the side of optimism. I'd like to think that Thaiss, Jones, Marsh, etc, can all be average or above major leaguers. But I've also toned it down a bit from years past, because I find that again and again, my expectations were being disappointed. It sounds like you are going through a similar process.

Anyhow, this is why I tend to take the prospect evaluations of non-fans more seriously than fans. Don't get me wrong: you guys do a bang-up job with your prospect lists, and you include a lot of info that we can't get elsewhere. Plus, you're more likely to find the diamonds in the rough. But you're also, first and foremost, fans. So when you look at Jahmai Jones you think, "future star" when everyone else is saying that he projects as an average or above average starting outfielder, which is still pretty good.

On the other hand, there is the "failo" mentality which turns this around and is overly pessimistic. It is hard to find a balance, especially when you're invested in something.

 

 

[ettin]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Good stuff, Scotty. I think ettin is on to something, and will elaborate on my take of that.

What you are talking about is inevitable for all sports fans: It is impossible for us to be objective. In this context, we tend to over-value our own prospects and when they don't fulfill our expectations, we think "something went wrong," when in fact what really happened is that our expectations didn't match the reality and were far higher than they should have been.

Going back about a decade, I used to fantasize about the future all-star lineup that included Kotchman, Kendrick, McPherson, Wood, etc. I remember thinking that Howie Kendrick was the next Tony Gwynn, Brandon Wood would hit 40 HR a year, and Casey Kotchman would be Todd Helton (at least I thought outside of Coors, of course). It is kind of embarrassing to think about. For a few years back then, I would predict stat lines for the Angels lineup, but after a few years I realized that my projections were almost always too high.

I'm not Chuck, but I tend to veer on the side of optimism. I'd like to think that Thaiss, Jones, Marsh, etc, can all be average or above major leaguers. But I've also toned it down a bit from years past, because I find that again and again, my expectations were being disappointed. It sounds like you are going through a similar process.

Anyhow, this is why I tend to take the prospect evaluations of non-fans more seriously than fans. Don't get me wrong: you guys do a bang-up job with your prospect lists, and you include a lot of info that we can't get elsewhere. Plus, you're more likely to find the diamonds in the rough. But you're also, first and foremost, fans. So when you look at Jahmai Jones you think, "future star" when everyone else is saying that he projects as an average or above average starting outfielder, which is still pretty good.

On the other hand, there is the "failo" mentality which turns this around and is overly pessimistic. It is hard to find a balance, especially when you're invested in something.

 

 

This is exactly what I was driving at. I too look back at some of my deadline trading articles a couple of years ago and blush at some of my takes on what the Angels could get at that time for various players. You'll notice if you flip back through some of my Primer Series articles this year that I tended (not always!) to talk more generalities in regards to possible off-season targets in the trade and free agent markets simply because it is very difficult to predict how the team will go when you factor in all of the various possibilities and factors that lead teams (and the players!) to make the decisions they do. It is just like finding a needle in a haystack.

So as I have progressed I've come to realize that I, like AJ (and probably you too Scotty), tend to be more on the optimistic side and I have to temper that inclination by trying to stay grounded and realistic when writing those (and other) articles. It is not easy and that is also why I generally try not to over react when a player is added or subtracted. Remember when most of AW.com nearly fainted at the Huston Street trade? I was guilty then too.

I don't think most of what you know is a lie Scotty. I just think you've realized that your internal Angels bias has led you to incorrect prognostications. Player development is really tricky. Moving up even one level in the Minors can stunt (or accelerate) a player's development. There is no magic 8 ball for the future. Baseball prospects have the deck stacked against them a lot more than other sports it seems which makes your undertaking that much more difficult (but not useless!).

[Angelsjunky]

Good stuff, ettin. And to play devil's advocate a bit, you never know when something is going to just "click," and a prospect will take a huge leap forward. I still see no reason to think Jones and/or Thaiss won't have a moment like that this year. I've been saying Thaiss is a bit overrated for some time now, that he's more Cron/Trumbo than Rizzo, and best case scenario is probably Brandon Belt. On the other hand, I'd be surprised if he doesn't get that click moment sometime in the next month or two and start dominating A+ ball. Jones might be more gradual.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Good news about baldoquin. Glad he can get sent down to A ball and hold his own. Dipo nailed that one for sure. 

[Angelsjunky]

LOL, Ocho.

Baldoquin is a non-prospect at this point. Best case scenario and he ends up being a bench guy in the majors, but if you look at what he's doing even in his "breakout" year, he's still a 23-year old in low-A ball. That's like a late round college player.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Well, maybe hes just still learning the culture. Jerry said hes ready for the bigs now (3 years ago). He just needed to learn culture.

 

Edit: ive been to cuba. The only difference between it and santa ana is humidity, better internet here, and he makes more than 50 bucks a month. Good call, Jerry.