Pick your poison. A 'Choose Your Own' SP Adventure...

[totdprods]

You're Billy Eppler. It's late at night in Anaheim. You and your buddy Steve Martone had planned on staying late tonight to catch up on some scouting reports of recently DFAed top pitching prospects, but he had to leave early when Eric Chavez slipped on the stairs on his way out and sprained his ankle and needed a lift home. The storm has passed outside, but thunder is still rumbling in the distance, and aside from the dim glow of your laptop, the occasional flash of lightning is the only illumination the Angels' front office sees on this grim evening. You've just read the last report on your desk, and you've grown tired of your phone ringing from Boone Logan's agent. It's time to go home. 

You step into the hallway - it's dark save for the light in the elevator. You see that Eric Chavez's briefcase is laying inside, papers strewn about. "He must have tripped on his way in", you surmise. You close your door and lock up, and look back at the elevator and jump when you see AARON SELE standing there. 

"'Aaron? Wow, it's been years? How are you? Are you okay?"
"Silence mortal" he responds. 
"Aaron?"
"I am no longer Aaron Sele. I am but a nameless member of GUILD," he responds, pulling a crimson hood over his head.
"Guild?" you ask, puzzled. 
"Yes the Guild of GUILD - Group of Uninspiring, Injured, Leftover Depth."
"..."
"I am here to inform you that you are in violation of our agreement," the beast responds.
"Agreement?" you reply, casually glancing at your phone, looking for Tony Reagins' number. 
"YES our agreement. You may be unaware of this, but for generations our organization has an agreement with the teams of baseball. All teams are to have under their employ one member of our great guild," the humanoid known as Sele responds.
"What about last year?" you query, confused as to why you don't know about this. 
"Weaver, Lincecum, Wilson...." the beast responds, unfurling a scroll of paper. He reads on, but you see a text notification from Bud Black: Hey Billy, just letting you know we're going to DFA Eddie Butler tomorrow. You know, he was a top prospect, so I thought..
"Hey sorry, can we get on with this?" you interrupt. 
"Very well, mortal. Per our agreement, you must agree to take under your employ one of the following by end of week, and they are to remain under your employ through at least the month of June. Do not question their age, mortal, nor there splits, lowly human, for they are all members of our great Guild of GUILD, of which we do not discriminate such trivial aspects. Do not fret the financial details or cost, it will be minimal. Besides, Arte knows how to write it off as a charitable deduction. Pick your poison."

You are handed a terrifying briefcase that looks to have been stitched together from old baseballs. It reeks of Axe body spray and dirt. You open it, and see a simple sheet of paper. You look back up at the creature known as Sele, but all that remains is a crimson hood, lying next to Chavez's briefcase, which also reeks of Axe bodyspray and dirt. Maybe this means something. Anyway, you look back inside this garish baseball briefcase at the depressing sheet of paper inside. 

PICK YOUR POISON. CHOOSE WISELY, MORTAL. YOUR ADVANCED STATS CANNOT SAVE YOU. 


"Sweet Jesus," you wonder. "How am I going to do this without considering where they ranked on prospect lists years ago?"
You look up and around the dark hallway. "Did Dipoto have to deal with this shit? Where was their GUILD member in 2014 when they won 98 games?"

"THAT was a violation," a voice growls in disgust. You turn, and a crimson-hooded Joe Blanton emerges from the shadow. 
"I did all I could, gollum, gollum, to ensureses I would pitch in 2014, yes, yes...we signed a precious contract we did, yes, two years it saidses," Blanton shrieked. 
"But Jerry saw things differently," speaks a warm, comforting voice. You turn to see Ian McKellan and see from Bill Stoneman's office. "Jerry decided to cut Blanton, you see. You may think Jerry resigned in 2015, my dear Fro- Billy.  But that is not the truth. The truth is, the dark agents of Guild were in pursuit of him, so he ---," 
"Fled?" you finish. 
"Yes my boy. He fled. Eventually to Seattle."
"It all makes sense now. That's why he---"
"Dealt for Gallardo" you say in unison with Ian McKellan. 

You smile and nod. Then realize you're talking to Ian McKellan and a naked, crimson-hooded Joe Blanton while holding a briefcase made of baseball skins. Life comes at you hard, man. It matters not. You get to work. You are Billy Eppler.



 

[totdprods]

So, who do you choose, and why? Based solely off the numbers. Please try to not look up who they belong to, because as stated, it matters not. Just pick the line you feel best with, and try to explain why you see something beneficial there. Just a good ol' fashioned stats debate.

Even if you can identify to whom each line belongs, please try to not make it public. There may be more clues, hints, and twists to come as the GUILD strikes elsewhere.

[Blarg]

This is like global thermalnuclear warfare,  best not to play. 

[I WAS AARON SELE]

24 minutes ago, Blarg said:

This is like globsl thermalnuclear warfare,  best not to play. 

Mortal. It matters not. All must bow to the Guild.

[ettin]

Tots I'm getting worried about you. I'm sure they have hotlines and medical assistance for those that are seeing the ghost of Aaron Sele.

 

For the record I selected the 5.54 ERA simply due to the fact that it was the best K/9-BB/9 rate of the group.

[totdprods]

I went with the 5.10 ERA simply because he could strike some guys out if moved to the pen. And the FIP reflected some bad luck. 

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, ettin said:

Tots I'm getting worried about you. I'm sure they have hotlines and medical assistance for those that are seeing the ghost of Aaron Sele.

 

For the record I selected the 5.54 ERA simply due to the fact that it was the best K/9-BB/9 rate of the group.

I have a hunch before all is said and done, we're going to see Eppler add one really unpopular FA SP option, even if just on a ST invite. How often does a GM, especially an Angel GM, go through an entire offseason without making at least one move, no matter how minor, that drives everyone crazy? One of these guys may be that guy.

[Blarg]

I'm going with the 80+ era dude because he allowed the fewest home runs,  the highest K totals and it seems his fip is out of line with era which could point to improvement. 

Or disaster. 

[Troll Daddy]

Screw that stats ... you're splitting hairs. You go to your scouts before you make a decision.

[I WAS AARON SELE]

9 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Screw that stats ... you're splitting hairs. You go to your scouts before you make a decision.

Mortal, do you remember that scene in the film Independence Day where the aliens talk to Jeff Goldblum by using the doctor pressed against the glass?
That's what your scouts will look and sound like if you approach them.

[Docwaukee]

So at first glance the guy with the highest k rate and higher ERA than FIP seems like the obvious choice

But the one I find interesting is the player with the era+ of 89 yet an ERA and FIP over 5.  This tells me he plays in Colorado or some other major bandbox.  If it truly is Colorado, I would have to look at his stuff, but I have always felt an undervalued play is taking a guy from high altitude and putting him at sea level.  Of course, you have to look at his stuff.  But Shoe, for instance, took a beating at SLC, yet has shown success at the major league level.  A reason why Nate Smith might be an underrated prospect.  

Guys who rely on movement that doesn't happen at high altitude end up with high bb rates as well because they dance around the zone.  But get them in a park where the ball moves appropriately and they succeed.  It usually takes that player about half a season to get their bearings.  

[Docwaukee]

11 minutes ago, I WAS AARON SELE said:

Mortal, do you remember that scene in the film Independence Day where the aliens talk to Jeff Goldblum by using the doctor pressed against the glass?
That's what your scouts will look and sound like if you approach them.

bill pullman dude.  bill pullman.  

[I WAS AARON SELE]

25 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

bill pullman dude.  bill pullman.  

Noooo, you right! This can't beeeee...
:explodes into the ether:

[Inside Pitch]

I went with 5.10, but the guy with the 89 ERA+ must have been pitching someplace awful...

 

[Angel Oracle]

Playing along, I chose 5.54 ERA on the assumption that the higher hits allowed was due to a weak defense (FIP more than 1.00 less than ERA).   

The Ks/BBs is nearly 3/1.

[Oz27]

I'm taking the 5.10 ERA too, with the 5.54 ERA my second choice. The 5.10 ERA is by far the best of the bunch though, he must have been pretty damn unlucky. That is a good strikeout rate, his walk and homer rates are fine and it's not like his H/9 is awful either. I'd definitely have more faith in him going forward than anyone else.

Okay, after writing all that I looked up who the 5.10 ERA was. Holy crap. Even when you look at more of the stats than you provide, it's still pretty hard to explain why his results were so bad. Sequencing must have been unkind to him.

Also, I was thinking that 5.06 ERA guy must be absolutely terrible and then I worked out who it was without even having to look it up. lol.

[totdprods]

On January 28, 2017 at 5:13 PM, Oz27 said:

I'm taking the 5.10 ERA too, with the 5.54 ERA my second choice. The 5.10 ERA is by far the best of the bunch though, he must have been pretty damn unlucky. That is a good strikeout rate, his walk and homer rates are fine and it's not like his H/9 is awful either. I'd definitely have more faith in him going forward than anyone else.

Okay, after writing all that I looked up who the 5.10 ERA was. Holy crap. Even when you look at more of the stats than you provide, it's still pretty hard to explain why his results were so bad. Sequencing must have been unkind to him.

Also, I was thinking that 5.06 ERA guy must be absolutely terrible and then I worked out who it was without even having to look it up. lol.

The 5.06 ERA guy has an awful line, but so too the 5.50 ERA guy and the 5.54 ERA guy. At least the last guy strikes some guys out.

[totdprods]

Vance Worley just signed a minor league deal with the Nats. Worley is younger and arguably better than pretty much all of these guys. Sign that their price tags may be very low.

[totdprods]

If you could immediately rule out one of the above players, again, simply off the stats and not looking them up, which one would you automatically rule out?

[Docwaukee]

11 minutes ago, totdprods said:

If you could immediately rule out one of the above players, again, simply off the stats and not looking them up, which one would you automatically rule out?

the one you'd expect.  

[Angel Oracle]

Yep, I suspected correctly.   Weave is the 5.06 ERA.

[ukyah]

ok, so who's D and F? i chose F, but it was obviously between those two.

[Oz27]

8 hours ago, totdprods said:

If you could immediately rule out one of the above players, again, simply off the stats and not looking them up, which one would you automatically rule out?

The one some people advocated the Angels signing this off-season.

I still struggle to believe that a 5.2 K/9 was a thing in 2016.

[totdprods]

16 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

The one some people advocated the Angels signing this off-season.

I still struggle to believe that a 5.2 K/9 was a thing in 2016.

How much worse is it than a 5.7 K/9? 

[Rico]

Went with the 5.54 guy simply for the K/BB ratio.