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Padres offer Weaver $1.75


daygloman

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I'm interested in the theory I see floated here a lot that Weaver was much better in the second half and that should be seen as an encouraging sign. His ERA was half a run better in the second half than it was in the first half. But his strikeout rate, walk rate, WHIP, FIP and xFIP were all worse. He also allowed a worse batting average, OBP, slugging % and wOBA in the second half than he did in the first, while his home run rate was essentially the same. I'd love to see Weaver do well and I understand why people are looking for reasons for optimism, but a deeper look at his second half numbers indicates there isn't much there. His September was much better, but he benefited greatly from luck (his BABIP was .236).

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16 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

I'm interested in the theory I see floated here a lot that Weaver was much better in the second half and that should be seen as an encouraging sign. His ERA was half a run better in the second half than it was in the first half. But his strikeout rate, walk rate, WHIP, FIP and xFIP were all worse. He also allowed a worse batting average, OBP, slugging % and wOBA in the second half than he did in the first, while his home run rate was essentially the same. I'd love to see Weaver do well and I understand why people are looking for reasons for optimism, but a deeper look at his second half numbers indicates there isn't much there. His September was much better, but he benefited greatly from luck (his BABIP was .236).

He's done.... people will try to look for something that supports the opinion that he got better -- whatever.. the dude isn't Jered Weaver anymore.

All that being said, he's always been a bit of a BABIP outlier type, likely a byproduct of his deception and other crap we really can't identify with the numbers -- the smoke and mirrors.  He was smokier and more mirrory in September but, still done.   It's sad, I wish it wasn't true but it is..   Again, it's not something I can readily support with data, but I've often felt he managed to stave off the end for as long as he did because some hitters may have been expecting more of the old Weaver than what he's become.

Anyway, I offer no predictions on what to expect next out of Weaver, but moving to the NL is likely his best shot at prolonging his career -- but it will all be built on smoke and mirrors IMO.

 

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