Angels nearing multiyear deal with Luis Valbuena

[Rico]

Muy buena!  

[totdprods]

9 hours ago, ukyah said:

i really don't see the quinlan reference at all. they're not even remotely similar profile players. robb never had any power at all. he hit a career total of 25 homeruns, with a season high of 9. he never hit more than 5 in any other season. marte hit 15 last year in 258 AB's. the season isn't linear, but that projects out to more than 30 homeruns with a full season's worth of AB's.

the truth is, if given the opportunity, marte has shown the possibility that he could give you 250avg/310obp/30hr, without any improvement. that's decent, significantly better than what we've had, and there's the potential for growth still.

i'm not trying to hitch my horse to his wagon, but i think he deserves his sophomore shot at starting. as i said, i place all of that on the fact that he hit well to start the season, struggled, then made the adjustment to finish off on a tear. i think he hit in the 350's or something like that to finish a long stretch on the season.

I'm really not trying to argue, because I have literally said the exact same things in support of Marte - the way he rebounded midseason, his improvement on plate discipline, the consistent power, the ability to remain productive during sporadic playing time and playing multiple positions - I'm easily one of Marte's biggest fans here, so don't take it as me disagreeing with you. I'm just simply recognizing the reasoning behind creating some extra depth. We shouldn't count on or expect Marte to continue on that path, even if we hope, believe, and expect it to be true. Good teams have good depth, good teams have players with untapped potential shuttling between AAA and the bigs, good teams even squander some of those players because of a lack of opportunity. May be a little cruel, but it happens. And that's where the Quinlan thing comes in.

The Quinlan comparison stems less from their actual numbers and more to the impact they had and the role they played. Both were brought up to be lefty-mashing corner infielders who wound up seeing time in the corner outfield spots as well. Marte and Quinlan both had a little cup of coffee debut season where they were okay, reserve level, and then exploded when they got a second chance.

Robb Freakin' Quinlan hit .344/.401/.525/.926 with an OPS+ of 142 in 177 plate appearances. Should we have made him a full-time starter after that? He hit over .400 over 100 plate appearances in the second half. Was it a total fluke? Yeah, for the most part. But two years later, in 244 plate appearances, he put up another good campaign hitting .321/.344/.491/.836 with an OPS+ of 113 over 244 plate appearances. So, it wasn't a total fluke. Robb Quinlan was just a decent to good role player who had a couple really nice seasons for extended periods of time. In those seasons, he managed a better slash than Marte's '16 in virtually every capacity. Had we decided to go with Quinlan full-time after either of those seasons, it would have burned us bad. 

Compare their minor league numbers:
Marte: .259/.327/.388/.715 over 3460 plate appearances
Quin: .313/.376/.474/.850 over 2800 plate appearances

Fully aware and acknowledging Quinlan had some factors working for him - he came out of college, Marte started when he was 17. Quinlan also spent most of his minor league career in hitting friendly PCL. There's still a huge difference there, and plenty of reason to have been excited about Robb Quinlan after his breakout year.

I think Marte truly turned a corner last year in AAA with Detroit. He was still young, and his power developed in a hurry. I fully think he will be an everyday MLB starter, hopefully with the Angels, and could see him being a borderline All-Star in a couple years. But I commend Eppler and the FO for not just banking on 300 great plate appearances from Marte and anointing him. If we were signing Kelly Johnson? Yeah, I'd be pissed, but Valbuena is pretty damn good. He plays everywhere Marte does and then some, he can hit left-handed (which we need), he has comparable power to Marte, better plate discipline, and better defense. We can afford to keep Marte in AAA for a few months or the season. Good teams have good depth. This checks off a major need for our '17 offseason checklist.


 

[Blarg]

11 hours ago, Stradling said:

Obviously you won't, but I would love for you to share why you think I am wrong.  

His artistic skills at third base are unparalleled in baseball. No one can draw home plate in the clay the way he can.

[Glen]

I like this deal. Seems like Eppler is doing the best he can with the restraints he,apparently has to deal with.

[totdprods]

Valbuena himself could be attractive trade bait midseason too. I'd imagine since he's under contract for '18 he's going to be pretty high value to the Angels though. Either way, good problem to have.

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

His artistic skills at third base are unparalleled in baseball. No one can draw home plate in the clay the way he can.

Even better than the Phillies' Dick Allen writing NO in the dirt around the 3B bag in the 1960s, in response to his critics?

[Troll Daddy]

Valbuena had season ending hamstring surgery in August ... hope he's ready for ST!

[totdprods]

11 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Valbuena had season ending hamstring surgery in August ... hope he's ready for ST!

He's been raking in winter ball.

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

He's been raking in winter ball.

he's Mexican?

órale !

[Blarg]

19 minutes ago, totdprods said:

He's been raking in winter ball.

He was part of the grounds crew? 

[totdprods]

Gotta stay in shape!

[HaloNArizona]

12 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I forgot something obvious but crucial: Pujols questionable health. This makes me think that Cron won't be traded, but that we'll see a DH platoon of Valbuena/Marte/Cron, with Valbuena also being an insurance policy in case Espinosa can't hit better than Mario Mendoza.

So the Opening Roster is likely to be (position players):

C: Maldonado, Perez (unless Wieters is signed)

IF: Cron, Espinosa, Valbuena, Simmons, Escobar, Marte, Pennington

OF: Trout, Calhoun, Maybin, Revere

If and when Pujols comes back, one or more of severals things could happen:

1. Marte is sent to AAA

2. Espinosa is benched (if he can't hit)

3. Cron is traded

4. Pennington is sent to AAA, released or traded

5. Escobar is traded

But the point is, unless someone makes Eppler an offer he can't refuse for Cron--a grade B/B+ pitching prospect--I expect CJ to start the year as the Angel's first baseman.

 

 

Agreed... WE are all jumping on the trade bandwagon, but this is from Rotoworld regarding Pujols:

 

Angels general manager Billy Eppler said Albert Pujols (foot) has begun physical therapy.

Pujols underwent surgery in December on his right plantar fascia. He's expected to be limited for the start of spring training and might not be ready for Opening Day. Pujols turns 37 next week and batted .268/.323/.457 with 31 homers and 119 RBI over 152 games last season. He's now halfway through his megadeal with the Angels, but he's still owed $140 million over the next five years. Jan 10 - 9:40 AM

 

Nothing happens on the trade front until we know if and when AP can play.

[eaterfan]

25 minutes ago, HaloNArizona said:

Agreed... WE are all jumping on the trade bandwagon, but this is from Rotoworld regarding Pujols:

 

Angels general manager Billy Eppler said Albert Pujols (foot) has begun physical therapy.

Pujols underwent surgery in December on his right plantar fascia. He's expected to be limited for the start of spring training and might not be ready for Opening Day. Pujols turns 37 next week and batted .268/.323/.457 with 31 homers and 119 RBI over 152 games last season. He's now halfway through his megadeal with the Angels, but he's still owed $140 million over the next five years. Jan 10 - 9:40 AM

 

Nothing happens on the trade front until we know if and when AP can play.

It depends on the deal. If you get a good deal you just stick Cowart at third for a month. Big downgrade with the bat. Big upgrade with the glove. Overall a slight downgrade but for a short time it's worth it if you can get long term value for one of the corner/dh pieces.

[ukyah]

11 hours ago, Oz27 said:

"By and large, good plate discipline is something a hitter either has or he doesn’t; and while most — if not all — hitters constantly strive to take a more disciplined approach, only a select few are able to really move the needle."

http://www.hardballtimes.com/improvements-in-plate-discipline-rare-but-effective/

" ...among above average regulars in the big leagues, less than 10% of them materially improved or regressed their plate discipline numbers once they got into pro ball and the more accurate number is probably around 5%."

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-hit-tool-pt-2/

In other words, Cron probably isn't going to make significant plate discipline improvements. Very few players do. His walk rate is very low and he swings at pitches outside the zone at an above average rate, so it's not like his plate discipline is good now. Maybe the home run power will come out a bit more, but expecting an MVP type breakout seems awfully optimistic. I'd actually see it on the opposite side to you and view this as a good time to trade him. He's coming off a good year and I'm not convinced he is a 115 wRC+ hitter going forward. There is merit in the idea of cashing in on him now.

 

fair enough.

i have no idea how his career will progress or cap, but progress he has. in his first three years his avg/obp increased from 256/289, 262/300, 278/325. i don't think one can argue that he's not progressing and developing. in fact, the only area where he hasn't improved is the power category, which we all know he has naturally.

i just don't agree with trading players in their prime who continue to improve. i think those are the players all teams need to keep. i'm also coming from the perspective that plate discipline can't be taught at the major league level.

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, ukyah said:

fair enough.

i have no idea how his career will progress or cap, but progress he has. in his first three years his avg/obp increased from 256/289, 262/300, 278/325. i don't think one can argue that he's not progressing and developing. in fact, the only area where he hasn't improved is the power category, which we all know he has naturally.

i just don't agree with trading players in their prime who continue to improve. i think those are the players all teams need to keep. i'm also coming from the perspective that plate discipline can't be taught at the major league level.

Early last year, I noticed Cron was making huge strides in drawing walks, cutting strikeouts, and making a lot more contact, but his power was nowhere to be found. Based off the types of players Eppler had been acquiring, I figured there was a big push from the staff for players to really focus on cutting strikeouts and just making contact, and we saw that result prove true over the course of the year. 

Cron was the clearest example we saw last year of one of our players adapting to whatever new offensive strategy they were trying to implement. I had a hunch that his power would come around once he had made adjustments to the new focus on making contact, and sure enough, his power finally exploded. 

I really think Cron has put it all together and I think he can take it to the next level this year. He was well on his way when he got hit by that pitch last year, and I think trading him now would be a big mistake. We'd be selling far too low. I want the org to give him one more year and see if he can put together something like a prime Billy Butler-type season, and cash in at that point. 

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Early last year, I noticed Cron was making huge strides in drawing walks, cutting strikeouts, and making a lot more contact, but his power was nowhere to be found. Based off the types of players Eppler had been acquiring, I figured there was a big push from the staff for players to really focus on cutting strikeouts and just making contact, and we saw that result prove true over the course of the year. 

Cron was the clearest example we saw last year of one of our players adapting to whatever new offensive strategy they were trying to implement. I had a hunch that his power would come around once he had made adjustments to the new focus on making contact, and sure enough, his power finally exploded. 

I really think Cron has put it all together and I think he can take it to the next level this year. He was well on his way when he got hit by that pitch last year, and I think trading him now would be a big mistake. We'd be selling far too low. I want the org to give him one more year and see if he can put together something like a prime Billy Butler-type season, and cash in at that point. 

Cron is super streaky.  Mostly because he swings at everything.  Which is fine when he's going good because his walk rate isn't as big of a concern in that he's making tons of hard contact.  His biggest problem has been when he's not going good.  He would trend toward swinging at everything still yet it would result in horrible whiffs where he's swinging at a ball above his head, or these loopy weak sauce swings that resulted in chopped grounders and popups.  Last year, early in the season, he had a much higher walk rate even though he didn't do much with the bat otherwise.  

So what I am hoping can happen with him is to maintain a solid bb rate while he's not hitting well and go ahead and swing away when he is.  tough task.

Last year, his first 205 pa resulted in 14bb in 185 ab with 15 xbh.

his final 240 pa resulted in 10 bb in 222 ab but 28 xbh.  

his k rate stayed pretty static.  

he needs to find a way to avoid weak contact when he's not going well.  he's never going to have the conventional 'plate discipline' that truly elite hitters have, but he might be able to compensate for that by a growing understanding of his pitch selection and what he can hit hard vs. what he doesn't even if it isn't in the zone.  

[Blarg]

Every time Cron gets on a roll he goes on the DL for something stupid. Then has to start back up again.

[Tank]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Even better than the Phillies' Dick Allen writing NO in the dirt around the 3B bag in the 1960s, in response to his critics?

are you sure he wasn't writing ON?

[CanadianHalo]

If Valbuena can duplicate his numbers last season this could turn out to be a very nice signing.

Ive always valued OBP more than any other stat. We got a bit of everything on this roster. We got some guys with speed, some guys with pop and guys with solid OBP's. On paper we're one of those scrappy teams that if you look down the order the batting averages don't "wow" you but we find ways to win. 

Starting to look like one of those Oakland/Houston type teams that find ways to win despite not having a bunch of stars on their teams. 

This is the first time in a few years I've actually had some hope going into the season. 

[ukyah]

1 hour ago, CanadianHalo said:

If Valbuena can duplicate his numbers last season this could turn out to be a very nice signing.

Ive always valued OBP more than any other stat. We got a bit of everything on this roster. We got some guys with speed, some guys with pop and guys with solid OBP's. On paper we're one of those scrappy teams that if you look down the order the batting averages don't "wow" you but we find ways to win. 

Starting to look like one of those Oakland/Houston type teams that find ways to win despite not having a bunch of stars on their teams. 

This is the first time in a few years I've actually had some hope going into the season. 

 

i'd agree with all of this, if they would have just signed one difference maker SP, which is not to say an ace, and a couple of difference maker relievers. in that scenario, i think the angels have a likely playoff team, but without it it's a massive reach.

[DMVol]

2 minutes ago, ukyah said:

 

i'd agree with all of this, if they would have just signed one difference maker SP, which is not to say an ace, and a couple of difference maker relievers. in that scenario, i think the angels have a likely playoff team, but without it it's a massive reach.

Every day lineup looks ok---Maybin, Revere, Espinosa and Valbuena were all good pick ups...but if Chavez is our only pitching addition, I wouldn't think we all need to make playoff reservations either......

[totdprods]

Another big plus to Valbuena, is you are adding a hitter who arguably has more offensive skills than Escobar. At least a more varied set of skills. It is that much easier to pull Escobar early in a game now, improving the defense by adding Valbuena and not losing much of anything offensively. Valbuena can still draw his share of walks and take a lot of pitches before the meat of the order. 

Pre-Valbuena, if you removed Escobar you were either adding in Cowart or Pennington and getting nothing offensively, or adding in Marte and gaining some power, but losing some contact/OBP. Marte didn't necessarily thrill me with his defense either, but it was tolerable. 

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, DMVol said:

Every day lineup looks ok---Maybin, Revere, Espinosa and Valbuena were all good pick ups...but if Chavez is our only pitching addition, I wouldn't think we all need to make playoff reservations either......

I agree and hope we pick up at least another good reliever or intriguing hybrid starter/reliever, but we're selling our current crop a little short. 

Our pitching is already greatly improved by the 90 games started of 5.50 ERA ball we've subtracted by cutting Weaver, Santiago, Chacin, Lincecum, Huff, Wright, Oberholtzer, and Rasmus. 1/2 of those games should easily be replaced by simply having a healthy Skagg/Richards for an entire year and Nolasco for a full year. 

I don't think we're done. If Eppler felt comfortable enough spending a few mil on a UT IF that we arguably could have done without, that means he probably isn't at his spending limit. There's a lot of pitching out there that would still be a step up from the crop we ran out last year. No one that is going to shake the Earth, but with our improved defense, offense, and pitching depth, we don't need that. Just need some stable, league average pitching to replace the pitchers who took us to the bottom last year. I don't think Wieters is out of the question either. 

[mtangelsfan]

So have they reached an agreement yet, or are they still near an agreement?  And, if they are still just near an agreement are they any nearer than they were yesterday?

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, mtangelsfan said:

So have they reached an agreement yet, or are they still near an agreement?  And, if they are still just near an agreement are they any nearer than they were yesterday?

yes