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Angels nearing multiyear deal with Luis Valbuena


John Smith

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1 minute ago, wopphil said:

Now let's sign Weiters and two pen arms and potentially be competitive.

Eppler  has improved this team dramatically without spending a ton of money or making any long term commitments. I have a lot of confidence in the direction he is taking the organization.

Best thing is that is totally reasonable. May be ambitious and unlikely, but there isn't anything really keeping them from doing that. It won't kill payroll.

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I forgot something obvious but crucial: Pujols questionable health. This makes me think that Cron won't be traded, but that we'll see a DH platoon of Valbuena/Marte/Cron, with Valbuena also being an insurance policy in case Espinosa can't hit better than Mario Mendoza.

So the Opening Roster is likely to be (position players):

C: Maldonado, Perez (unless Wieters is signed)

IF: Cron, Espinosa, Valbuena, Simmons, Escobar, Marte, Pennington

OF: Trout, Calhoun, Maybin, Revere

If and when Pujols comes back, one or more of severals things could happen:

1. Marte is sent to AAA

2. Espinosa is benched (if he can't hit)

3. Cron is traded

4. Pennington is sent to AAA, released or traded

5. Escobar is traded

But the point is, unless someone makes Eppler an offer he can't refuse for Cron--a grade B/B+ pitching prospect--I expect CJ to start the year as the Angel's first baseman.

 

 

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3 hours ago, totdprods said:

Robb Quinlan looked like a badass too for awhile. Not trying to be snarky, just trying to weigh both sides. I imagine Valbuena will be relatively cheap at this point, and it gives us a lot of depth for next year too, which gives Eppler a lot of freedom and flexibility when it comes to making deals over the next year. More than Marte offered.

i really don't see the quinlan reference at all. they're not even remotely similar profile players. robb never had any power at all. he hit a career total of 25 homeruns, with a season high of 9. he never hit more than 5 in any other season. marte hit 15 last year in 258 AB's. the season isn't linear, but that projects out to more than 30 homeruns with a full season's worth of AB's.

the truth is, if given the opportunity, marte has shown the possibility that he could give you 250avg/310obp/30hr, without any improvement. that's decent, significantly better than what we've had, and there's the potential for growth still.

i'm not trying to hitch my horse to his wagon, but i think he deserves his sophomore shot at starting. as i said, i place all of that on the fact that he hit well to start the season, struggled, then made the adjustment to finish off on a tear. i think he hit in the 350's or something like that to finish a long stretch on the season.

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somewhere in another thread i spoke about how trading cron right now based on his career progression might be a terrible idea, and that trading for him might be an incredible buy low trade.

cron has hit like a guy with a good eye and little power, but we all know he has tremendous power. a big power guy with plate discipline is not something i would be so keen on trading. there is the potential there for a massive breakout, and as i said then, i'm talking about one of those out of nowhere mvp type seasons.

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17 minutes ago, ukyah said:

somewhere in another thread i spoke about how trading cron right now based on his career progression might be a terrible idea, and that trading for him might be an incredible buy low trade.

cron has hit like a guy with a good eye and little power, but we all know he has tremendous power. a big power guy with plate discipline is not something i would be so keen on trading. there is the potential there for a massive breakout, and as i said then, i'm talking about one of those out of nowhere mvp type seasons.

I agree ... Eppler's philosophy for hitters is plate discipline/contact w/power being a plus factor. Doubtful he's being shopped. 

I see Valbuena as a utility player. I can see  Pennington being the odd man out. 

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Nice.  Avg defender.  Maybe even a little better than that.  Above average bat.  115 wRC+ bat over the last 3 years.  Avg base runner.  You've got a ton of infield positional flexibility now.  Espinosa can back up short and play 2b or 3b.  Valbuena can play 3b, 2b or 1b.  He's the replacement for Yunel or Espinosa.  

probably 2/12 with a 7 mil option and a 1 mil buyout.  

Like Fletcher has said, there likely isn't much interest in Escobar on the trade market, but I would move him for a solid AAA reliever about to join the majors if it available.  

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37 minutes ago, ukyah said:

somewhere in another thread i spoke about how trading cron right now based on his career progression might be a terrible idea, and that trading for him might be an incredible buy low trade.

cron has hit like a guy with a good eye and little power, but we all know he has tremendous power. a big power guy with plate discipline is not something i would be so keen on trading. there is the potential there for a massive breakout, and as i said then, i'm talking about one of those out of nowhere mvp type seasons.

"By and large, good plate discipline is something a hitter either has or he doesn’t; and while most — if not all — hitters constantly strive to take a more disciplined approach, only a select few are able to really move the needle."

http://www.hardballtimes.com/improvements-in-plate-discipline-rare-but-effective/

" ...among above average regulars in the big leagues, less than 10% of them materially improved or regressed their plate discipline numbers once they got into pro ball and the more accurate number is probably around 5%."

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-hit-tool-pt-2/

In other words, Cron probably isn't going to make significant plate discipline improvements. Very few players do. His walk rate is very low and he swings at pitches outside the zone at an above average rate, so it's not like his plate discipline is good now. Maybe the home run power will come out a bit more, but expecting an MVP type breakout seems awfully optimistic. I'd actually see it on the opposite side to you and view this as a good time to trade him. He's coming off a good year and I'm not convinced he is a 115 wRC+ hitter going forward. There is merit in the idea of cashing in on him now.

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Cron's ability to hit for avg is what is going to keep him in the Majors unless his tremendous power shows up more in games.  

He's got a chance to hit 30 hrs with a walk rate of less than 6% and a k rate of less than 15% (ie less than 100k in a season. ) 

That's the difference between him a Trumbo.  

Assuming if he does that, he doesn't decrease his hart hit ball rate.  If all else remains consistent, and he has a high BABIP he could end up hitting .300 with close to 30 bombs.  Granted, that's not the ideal profile for a hitter, he would drive in a ton of runs in a Garrett Anderson sort of way.  Especially with that one guy 2 spots ahead of him getting on at a .420 clip.  

I'd be inclined to hang on to him for the above reason and for the fact that he had a solid year last year with the bat but it wasn't a full season.  Even though you'd be losing a year of club control, even if he only produces what he did but over the course of an entire season you've added some additional counting stats and consistency to his profile which I personally feel increases his value from where it's at.  I really don't think he's gonna be worse.  

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