2016 vs. 2017 SP depth at AAA and MLB

[Docwaukee]

Last year's starting staff and immediate depth:

Richards, Heaney, Santiago, Shoe and Weaver

Depth - Trop, Wilson, Skaggs and Smith.  

2016 AAA rotation opening day:

Smith, Yunesky Maya (30+yo minor league journeyman), Zach Nuding (26yo minor league journeyman with bad peripherals), Skaggs, Chris Jones (27yo minor league journeyman with bad peripherals).  

Even with all of our injuries, the only guy on the starting AAA roster to come up and help the big club was Skaggs.  That also includes AA where, of course, no one was capable of contributing.  

For a huge chunk of the season, two spots in our rotation was filled with two guys who weren't even in the org to start the season.  And another by a guy that was projected to be our #5/6.  

 

This year's starting staff and immediate depth:

Richards, Shoe, Skaggs, Nolasco, Chavez

Depth - Meyer, Smith, Campos, Banuelos, Pounders, Scribner, O'Grady, Ramirez, Kipper, Lamb and Blackford.  I am probably forgetting some.  

My guess is that the AAA rotation will be:

Meyer, Smith, Campos, Banuelos, Ponders.  Which is very interesting because pretty much all of those other guys deserve a chance to fill a rotation spot.  

 

Part of the reason I bring this up is that while it seemed like we had some capable depth in the AAA pen, it was really a collection of older failed relievers with almost no upside talent.  Guys like Alburquerque, David Carpenter, Jose Valdez, Javy Guerra, Ramon Martinez, Lucas Luetge, AJ Achter etc.  

Most of the guys who are rotation depth are guys who have upside but haven't been able to make it work for whatever reason.  Mostly because of injury.  You know what those guys end up being pretty good at?  Relieving.  

So by creating rotation depth, Eppler has also created pen depth.  

Right now it looks like our pen will be Street, Bedrosian, Guerra, Bailey, Alvarez, Morin and maybe Ramirez from that bunch with depth as Middleton, Mahle, De Los Santos, Paredes, Yates, and Blake Parker.  But you've also got Campos, Meyer, Pounders, Banuelos, and Lamb who also have good stuff.  Probably better stuff than any of our other pen depth.  

So i've just sold myself on the fact that the pen is going to be better than expected.  Granted, it's going to be the typical april/may tryout, but by the time June rolls around, It will be good.  BTW, watch out for Kevin Grendell.  

 

[ettin]

Honestly I have been feeling like you were a little too gloomy on this group he assembled Doc, so glad to see you coming around on this subject.

This Spring Training should be really interesting to watch. I have high hopes for our bullpen especially for young guys like Bedrosian, Middleton, Meyer, and Parker. I like the direction Alvarez took in 2016 (but I am in the minority there). I'm not giving up on Morin either because his peripherals against RHH's last year were outstanding.

In the end all of this pitching depth should provide us with enough good solutions to our bullpen. It will just take time to sort out in Spring Training and once the season gets underway. Will Bailey perform? Street? Will Guerra maintain? Time will sort this out and I think in the end we will have a better bullpen by a far cry over last year.

[Brent Maguire]

Starting to come around to this idea as well. I would still love to add another vet(Hunter, Storen) but there looks to be some solid depth of very intriguing arms in the AA/AAA levels who probably aren't starters long term but could fill bullpen roles. 

I still want to see Meyer full converted into a multi inning relief specialist. I truly believe that he can become a real weapon if they crank down his innings and let him go all out in shorter stints. 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, ettin said:

Honestly I have been feeling like you were a little too gloomy on this group he assembled Doc, so glad to see you coming around on this subject.

This Spring Training should be really interesting to watch. I have high hopes for our bullpen especially for young guys like Bedrosian, Middleton, Meyer, and Parker. I like the direction Alvarez took in 2016 (but I am in the minority there). I'm not giving up on Morin either because his peripherals against RHH's last year were outstanding.

In the end all of this pitching depth should provide us with enough good solutions to our bullpen. It will just take time to sort out in Spring Training and once the season gets underway. Will Bailey perform? Street? Will Guerra maintain? Time will sort this out and I think in the end we will have a better bullpen by a far cry over last year.

I am gloomy on the front 7 as it stands and nothing has changed in that regard for me.  I have little hope that Street is capable of being a closer.  My only hope for Alvarez is that he faces lefties almost exclusively and I have my doubts that Scioscia will use him that way. Guerra is smoke and mirrors.  I would be ok as him being our 5/6th inning guy ie 5th or 6th on the depth chart.  I don't share your confidence in Morin.  His peripherals are decent, but I see him as an untimely hr waiting to happen every time he goes out there and I don't want him near the game if it matters.  

My remote confidence comes from the fact that I think we've got enough upside depth where none of those guys will even by part of the pen by June.  I am talking myself into a group of Bedrosian, Campos, Middleton, Pounders, Lamb, Grendell, and Paredes being the primary squad if it's going to work.  Maybe a couple guys of Bailey, Guerra and Ramirez work out or maybe Banuelos or Meyer or De Los Santos or Yates or Parker get it done but I am banking on the depth and not the guys who break camp.  

As much as I think our defense will help in offsetting the fact that our current pen as constructed doesn't miss bats, I like guys who miss bats coming out of the pen. I don't want them to need the defense to help.  I want a bunch of guys throwing in the mid nineties with wipeout sliders and solid control/command.  Not a bunch of guys who rely on weak contact and the corner of the plate.  Personally, I would prefer that we not have to rely on 'depth' at all.  But the fact that we have some guys who might be able to do what I want the current guys to be able to do is better than where we were last year.   

[Angelsjunky]

I really see it less as rotation vs. bullpen depth, but just pitching depth. Eppler has given the Angels a lot of options to work with, a shotgun approach in which even if only a quarter of his acquisitions work out as hoped, they've got something to work with.If half of them work out, then they've got themselves a pitching staff come mid-season.

Another possibility is that if enough of those guys work out, we might see Nolasco, Chavez, and Street shipped for useful pieces.

[arch stanton]

It is frustrating watching the April/May reliever auditions but there does seem to be enough arms there to piece together a good group. 

[ettin]

14 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I am gloomy on the front 7 as it stands and nothing has changed in that regard for me.  I have little hope that Street is capable of being a closer.  My only hope for Alvarez is that he faces lefties almost exclusively and I have my doubts that Scioscia will use him that way. Guerra is smoke and mirrors.  I would be ok as him being our 5/6th inning guy ie 5th or 6th on the depth chart.  I don't share your confidence in Morin.  His peripherals are decent, but I see him as an untimely hr waiting to happen every time he goes out there and I don't want him near the game if it matters.  

My remote confidence comes from the fact that I think we've got enough upside depth where none of those guys will even by part of the pen by June.  I am talking myself into a group of Bedrosian, Campos, Middleton, Pounders, Lamb, Grendell, and Paredes being the primary squad if it's going to work.  Maybe a couple guys of Bailey, Guerra and Ramirez work out or maybe Banuelos or Meyer or De Los Santos or Yates or Parker get it done but I am banking on the depth and not the guys who break camp.  

As much as I think our defense will help in offsetting the fact that our current pen as constructed doesn't miss bats, I like guys who miss bats coming out of the pen. I don't want them to need the defense to help.  I want a bunch of guys throwing in the mid nineties with wipeout sliders and solid control/command.  Not a bunch of guys who rely on weak contact and the corner of the plate.  Personally, I would prefer that we not have to rely on 'depth' at all.  But the fact that we have some guys who might be able to do what I want the current guys to be able to do is better than where we were last year.   

I agree with this statement. However the rest of baseball probably does too. I suspect Eppler's heavy move towards even more defense is probably due to the fact that the Angels cannot afford to acquire a bullpen guy that misses bats and has to settle for pitch-to-contact type ground ball relievers instead. Working within the confines of his universe.

[NachoPop]

I'm looking forward to seeing how the bullpen turns out. It may be a complete cluster to start out, but will be interesting to see which of the potential starters that miss out on that no. 5 spot end up in the pen. They will be good to help limit the innings on starters as well.

[Oz27]

15 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I am gloomy on the front 7 as it stands and nothing has changed in that regard for me.  I have little hope that Street is capable of being a closer.  My only hope for Alvarez is that he faces lefties almost exclusively and I have my doubts that Scioscia will use him that way. Guerra is smoke and mirrors.  I would be ok as him being our 5/6th inning guy ie 5th or 6th on the depth chart.  I don't share your confidence in Morin.  His peripherals are decent, but I see him as an untimely hr waiting to happen every time he goes out there and I don't want him near the game if it matters.  

My remote confidence comes from the fact that I think we've got enough upside depth where none of those guys will even by part of the pen by June.  I am talking myself into a group of Bedrosian, Campos, Middleton, Pounders, Lamb, Grendell, and Paredes being the primary squad if it's going to work.  Maybe a couple guys of Bailey, Guerra and Ramirez work out or maybe Banuelos or Meyer or De Los Santos or Yates or Parker get it done but I am banking on the depth and not the guys who break camp. 

This is a pretty good summary. I think the 'pen could be awful early on, especially since Bailey and Street will probably start in key roles and Morin and Guerra will probably be around then too. I have no confidence in any of them and a group with them (plus Alvarez, who'll inevitably throw too often against righties and get hammered by them) throwing so many innings shapes as terrible. But there are enough arms around that some of them should not be so terrible right? I doubt Banuelos or Meyer stick in the rotation so maybe they'll end up being okay relievers. Middleton could develop quickly. Campos actually looks pretty good. Paredes is a breakout candidate. So there are the guys there who could make the bullpen not totally suck. But for that to happen, you're counting on a lot going right. Plenty rides on Bedorisan staying healthy and good and then everyone else beyond that has major question marks. While it's far from impossible to see the bullpen actually being kinda good, it still strikes me as likely that it's below average and possible that it's terrible.

[Docwaukee]

18 minutes ago, ettin said:

I agree with this statement. However the rest of baseball probably does too. I suspect Eppler's heavy move towards even more defense is probably due to the fact that the Angels cannot won't afford to acquire a bullpen guy that misses bats and has to settle for pitch-to-contact type ground ball relievers instead. Working within the confines of his universe.

we just haven't spent on the pen.  purposefully.  

[ettin]

38 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

we just haven't spent on the pen.  purposefully.  

I was writing that from Eppler's viewpoint so same difference.

[Troll Daddy]

1 hour ago, Oz27 said:

This is a pretty good summary. I think the 'pen could be awful early on, especially since Bailey and Street will probably start in key roles and Morin and Guerra will probably be around then too. I have no confidence in any of them and a group with them (plus Alvarez, who'll inevitably throw too often against righties and get hammered by them) throwing so many innings shapes as terrible. But there are enough arms around that some of them should not be so terrible right? I doubt Banuelos or Meyer stick in the rotation so maybe they'll end up being okay relievers. Middleton could develop quickly. Campos actually looks pretty good. Paredes is a breakout candidate. So there are the guys there who could make the bullpen not totally suck. But for that to happen, you're counting on a lot going right. Plenty rides on Bedorisan staying healthy and good and then everyone else beyond that has major question marks. While it's far from impossible to see the bullpen actually being kinda good, it still strikes me as likely that it's below average and possible that it's terrible.

 

[Oz27]

2 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

 

 

Numerous studies have suggested the attention seeking behavior you exhibit is a symptom of jealousy. Of course it could be neglect too. Or loneliness. Either way, it's boring. Get a new act.

[Troll Daddy]

31 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

Numerous studies have suggested the attention seeking behavior you exhibit is a symptom of jealousy. Of course it could be neglect too. Or loneliness. Either way, it's boring. Get a new act.

You're so cute ... I couldn't help myself lol

 

[Second Base]

If you aren't going to spend money on a bullpen, then I'd call Banuelos, Meyer, Campos, Pounders, a pretty savvy set of moves.

[Troll Daddy]

I believe the bullpen will be above average to one of the best in baseball. 

There's no reason to believe that Street and Bedrosian won't come into camp healthy and ready to compete. Street will compete for the closers job per Eppler. Bailey did a great job as closer to end the season. 

Guerra, Alvarez, Morin, Ramirez, Chavez, Wright, and Meyer are ready to compete. There's also a star somewhere hidden on the farm waiting for his opportunity. 

Lets not forget there's eight months to add or subtract to improve the bullpen. 

 

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

I believe the bullpen will be above average to one of the best in baseball. 

There's no reason to believe that Street and Bedrosian won't come into camp healthy and ready to compete. Street will compete for the closers job per Eppler. Bailey did a great job as closer to end the season. 

Guerra, Alvarez, Morin, Ramirez, Chavez, Wright, and Meyer are ready to compete. There's also a star somewhere hidden on the farm waiting for his opportunity. 

Lets not forget there's eight months to add or subtract to improve the bullpen. 

 

There's a good chance that I would come into camp healthy and ready to compete.  Which means f**k all in terms of actual talent and performance. Another vaguely optimistic rabbit's foot analysis as expected.  

[wopphil]

Put me on record as saying this pen, as constructed, will be one of the worst in baseball.

But, I think Eppler still brings in another arm or two as the prices drop (guys like Romo or Feliz). If he does that, and if some things break right, the pen could be league average. 

[totdprods]

Going with our other FAs, I imagine Eppler is just waiting out the market, trying to get the shortest/cheapest commitment possible, and if that doesn't develop, he's comfortable with what's in house. He seems to be pretty firm on sticking to a plan and not paying anyone else's price and is content to wait it out. Which is a good thing if it's a temporary mindset. 

[Inside Pitch]

Im a big fan of failed SPs being the best source of RPs...   A return to that is a positive IMO.

[Troll Daddy]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

There's a good chance that I would come into camp healthy and ready to compete.  Which means f**k all in terms of actual talent and performance. Another vaguely optimistic rabbit's foot analysis as expected.  

Your pessimistic analysis is on the same rabbit's foot. There's plenty of young talent and depth to work with ... don't believe everything you read in fangraphs.

There's always room for improvement for every team. Eppler may or may not add another piece ... either way, we're good to go.

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Your pessimistic analysis is on the same rabbit's foot. There's plenty of young talent and depth to work with ... don't believe everything you read in fangraphs.

There's always room for improvement for every team. Eppler may or may not add another piece ... either way, we're good to go.

????   You are trying way too hard to be contrarian -- to the point where you seemingly ignored much of what he actually said.  

He was optimistic, in fact the intent of his post was to publicly state he has sold himself on the idea that the pen will be better than he believed it would be.  You basically are parroting most of what he said regarding young guys with potential and overall depth.  I understand people love to take digs at statistical analysis and those who use it but when you ignore the message just to take a shot at stats you come off looking rather dim.

Seriously -- read the last paragraph of his opening post...

 

[Docwaukee]

29 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

????   You are trying way too hard to be contrarian -- to the point where you seemingly ignored much of what he actually said.  

He was optimistic, in fact the intent of his post was to publicly state he has sold himself on the idea that the pen will be better than he believed it would be.  You basically are parroting most of what he said regarding young guys with potential and overall depth.  I understand people love to take digs at statistical analysis and those who use it but when you ignore the message just to take a shot at stats you come off looking rather dim.

Seriously -- read the last paragraph of his opening post...

 

Everyone who actually takes the time to do a  full 2 minutes of research on any topic is a pessimist.  The angels are ready to compete.  It's all that matters because it gives them a huge edge over those teams that aren't ready to compete. 

[Oz27]

3 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

There's always room for improvement for every team. Eppler may or may not add another piece ... either way, we're good to go.

Wow, this is some top notch analysis. Perhaps you should send something like this to Fangraphs or Baseball Prospectus and see if they'll hire you? People who can deliver such cutting, thoughtful insight are hard to find.

[Hubs]

7 hours ago, wopphil said:

Put me on record as saying this pen, as constructed, will be one of the worst in baseball.

But, I think Eppler still brings in another arm or two as the prices drop (guys like Romo or Feliz). If he does that, and if some things break right, the pen could be league average. 

I'll bet you a beer at the Stadium that we finish top 18 in MLB in Bullpen WAR and ERA.