Five years later: Albert vs Yu

[Angel Oracle]

It was a hot topic five years ago, when both Pujols and Darvish signed their contracts with the Halos and Rangers.   Pujols' contract was of course longer and much more lucrative (10 years/$240 million + $10 million signing bonus vs 6 years/$56 million + posting fee that made it about $100 million total spent by the Rangers).

Five years later, Pujols still has 5 years/$140 million to be paid, while Darvish is only owed $11 million in 2017.  

Five years later, both have not produced as much as expected.  

Pujols' 5 year averages are: 565 at bats, 29 HRs, 98 rbis, 3.0 WAR, .266/.325/.474/.799.   They are solid numbers, but not what one expects for $24 million/season AAV, especially the .325 OBP.

Darvish's totals for 5 years (only 17 starts the past 2 seasons) are:  100 starts, 645 innings, 3.29 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 65 HRs allowed    Pretty solid, just not able to stay healthy the past 2 seasons.

If Darvish stays healthy in 2017 and puts up solid numbers, wouldn't it be the ultimate LOL if he ended up signing with the Halos after 2017?   He would be just 31 to start the 2018 season.   Granted, he was reported to have pitched a lot of innings in Japan through 2011 (age 24/25 season). 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

No chance, do I invest in Pacific Rim Arms.......... That have had so many innings put on them there and been under the knife here!...

 

Irabu.........

[Angel Oracle]

The Pacific Rim pitchers who became relievers over here generally seem to hold on much longer than the starters.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

The Pacific Rim pitchers who became relievers over here generally seem to hold on much longer than the starters.

True, but short of Shiggy and Uehara..... And Park who started out as a starter and had a few solid years as a reliever but ended up having a Mental Breakdown..... How many come here as a reliever?....

Some swing guys but that is due to them being borderline starters and have some decent stats vs same side hitters and situational stuff.

[tomsred]

4 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

It was a hot topic five years ago, when both Pujols and Darvish signed their contracts with the Halos and Rangers.   Pujols' contract was of course longer and much more lucrative (10 years/$240 million + $10 million signing bonus vs 6 years/$56 million + posting fee that made it about $100 million total spent by the Rangers).

Five years later, Pujols still has 5 years/$140 million to be paid, while Darvish is only owed $11 million in 2017.  

Five years later, both have not produced as much as expected.  

Pujols' 5 year averages are: 565 at bats, 29 HRs, 98 rbis, 3.0 WAR, .266/.325/.474/.799.   They are solid numbers, but not what one expects for $24 million/season AAV, especially the .325 OBP.

Darvish's totals for 5 years (only 17 starts the past 2 seasons) are:  100 starts, 645 innings, 3.29 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 65 HRs allowed    Pretty solid, just not able to stay healthy the past 2 seasons.

If Darvish stays healthy in 2017 and puts up solid numbers, wouldn't it be the ultimate LOL if he ended up signing with the Halos after 2017?   He would be just 31 to start the 2018 season.   Granted, he was reported to have pitched a lot of innings in Japan through 2011 (age 24/25 season). 

Interesting retrospective AO.  I view them as kind of typical of what you get when you delve deeply into the free agent market.  You are kind of paying for a floor performance, and hoping for ceiling results.  Rarely does ceiling performance happen, either due to injury, or because the acquiring team ignores the aging of the athlete and increased chance of injury and corresponding downers they provide.  Although I feel that we make tiny strides each year closer to pay for performance, the reality is that players really are still heavily paid for what you did in the past.  While the numbers rarely bode well for these types of transactions, there are still some intangibles that come with former mega star like players such as increased box office draw, leadership, quality experience, etc. that never seem to be quite quantifiable, and fans take little comfort in.  

In the end I believe the winning model has changed forever under the current league rules regarding player acquisition.  Now the core of your team has to be great young players acquired either through the draft, by shrewd trades, or by seeing something in young players that others miss.  Veterans are a luxury supplement that you add when you get close to pennants, and need one more final quick boost.  The veteran acquisition process is way too inefficient to be the core way of building.

I think some of our fans think Eppler will go deeper into the veterans when we clear more annual salary.  I'm kind of skeptical, I think he continues to tinker with the lineup and pitching staffs until he (a) has the depth he feels is sufficient to contend, (b) creates an environment of self sustainability throughout our minor league system, and (c) creates a constant flexibility with regard to payroll that would allow him to go really big if and when we get close to sniffing a ring.

[Angel Oracle]

This is why Eppler is earning respect.   Meanwhile in Seattle, former Halos GM Dipoto seems to be focusing on adding veterans, which on the surface seems okay since they were over .500 in 2016.

But like in Anaheim under Dipoto, the future seems to be minimized in Seattle. Their window to make the post-season will thus begin to shorten.

[Ohtaniland]

I'd trade Albert for Yu. 

[tomsred]

31 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

I'd trade Albert for Yu. 

Certainly, but Texas wouldn't do it.  It would give us ultra-flexibility in 2018.  Better think of another plan though.

[Tank]

1 hour ago, CALZONE said:

I'd trade Albert for Yu. 

i'm shocked - SHOCKED! - to read this from you.

 

 

i'd make this trade, too.

[Dtwncbad]

Free agency really has become so much less fun for the fans.  I wish owners would get smarter overall in terms of contract length.  The market is a function of player wants and owner willingness.  I get it.  But when will owners learn?

You can't have collusion but at some point you can hope for consensus, which is not the same.  Contracts longer than 3 years for free agents really should be rare.  Most free agents are 30+ yrs of age.  It would be reasonable to give three years and then take a new look at the 33 or 34 yr old to see what they have left.

If owners could smarten up a bit and not piss all over themselves for free agents with 5, 6, 7 or more year free agent contracts, maybe the league would be better with teams not trapped in mediocrity.

To be clear I am not talking about a rule about contract length (Trout and Harper types, of course).  I am just talking about showing some wisdom, and having that wisdom have an effect on a typical contract length for free agents.

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Free agency really has become so much less fun for the fans.  I wish owners would get smarter overall in terms of contract length.  The market is a function of player wants and owner willingness.  I get it.  But when will owners learn?

You can't have collusion but at some point you can hope for consensus, which is not the same.  Contracts longer than 3 years for free agents really should be rare.  Most free agents are 30+ yrs of age.  It would be reasonable to give three years and then take a new look at the 33 or 34 yr old to see what they have left.

If owners could smarten up a bit and not piss all over themselves for free agents with 5, 6, 7 or more year free agent contracts, maybe the league would be better with teams not trapped in mediocrity.

To be clear I am not talking about a rule about contract length (Trout and Harper types, of course).  I am just talking about showing some wisdom, and having that wisdom have an effect on a typical contract length for free agents.

I think we're already starting to see that - the days of Fielder and Pujols contracts may be gone. You'll see those deals for the extremely elite talent like Harper, Machado, Trout - true five-tool players - but I don't think there is a single FO out there now that isn't run by someone more on the young, analytical, sabremetric side of things. There's at least a significant influence in each FO now, with Stewart/LaRussa out in AZ. 

I think we will see more contracts for fewer years and bigger money (like Cespedes and Encarnacion) more often.

[gotbeer]

18 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

No chance, do I invest in Pacific Rim Arms.......... That have had so many innings put on them there and been under the knife here!...

 

Irabu.........

And if the Angels are the only team not to take a run at Ohtani.  Then LOL on our pathetic front office and ownership. 

That being said, neither the Rangers or the Angels have won a WS.  So both are sucky signings.  But at least the Rangers are still signing people and making trades, while also developing a minor league.

[Erstad Grit]

While I have been a harsh critic of pujols, his numbers have not been too bad.  Def not elite,  but sometimes I act like he is garbage.  Good post.  

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, gotbeer said:

And if the Angels are the only team not to take a run at Ohtani.  Then LOL on our pathetic front office and ownership. 

That being said, neither the Rangers or the Angels have won a WS.  So both are sucky signings.  But at least the Rangers are still signing people and making trades, while also developing a minor league.

so two things.  One, everyone and their brother is going to make a run at Otani.  Spending limits on international free agents and posting will be maxed out so it will come down to where he wants to play.  I doubt we have a chance in hell.  

second, take another look at the Rangers. 

They are slated to lose Darvish and Lucroy after this season.  They've got 82 mil left on Choo and almost 90 mil left on Andrus.  They just paid 21.5 mil for Carlos Gomez and Andrew Cashner.  Hamels is entering his age 33yo season and had an era above 4 in the second half as well as an era of almost 7 in late august thru september.  He was also horrible in the playoffs.  

Odor had a nice season offensively but damn if 19 walks and 135k seems like something that works for very long.  And he's a terrible defender.  Mazara could be a nice player but he struggled second time through and he's also a poor defender.  

Their minor league system has taken some serious hits the last couple years to the point that it's probably close to the bottom third in terms of talent and it's still very questionable whether Gallo or Profar pan out.  

They also massively out performed their run differential last year.  

It would not surprise me to see them finish in 4th place this year and start a downward spiral where they aren't good again for awhile.  

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

I think we're already starting to see that - the days of Fielder and Pujols contracts may be gone. You'll see those deals for the extremely elite talent like Harper, Machado, Trout - true five-tool players - but I don't think there is a single FO out there now that isn't run by someone more on the young, analytical, sabremetric side of things. There's at least a significant influence in each FO now, with Stewart/LaRussa out in AZ. 

I think we will see more contracts for fewer years and bigger money (like Cespedes and Encarnacion) more often.

With opt outs continuing to be part of more contracts 

[Oz27]

If you include the posting fee, the Rangers will outlay $107 million over six years for Darvish. By both bWAR and fWAR he has been worth more than 15 WAR (15.4 for BR, 15.5 for FG), even though he missed an entire season. Even if he never throws another pitch for the Rangers, that works out to $7.13 million per win. If he has a 2 WAR season, that would make it $6.15 million per win. Either way, that is below the current market rate and will either be a pretty good or excellent return on the Rangers' investment.

If we really want to compare that to Pujols, so far he has been worth 14.7 WAR with the Angels and he has been paid $100 million. As it stands, he has been paid $6.8 million per win. Barring some super natural event, that number will soon go up by a lot however. The contract is strongly backloaded and his performance is declining. If he gets to 20 WAR with the Angels, he'll end up earning $12.5 million per win. Even if he gets to 25 WAR, which is an incredibly optimistic assessment, that would still make it $10 million per win.

[Oz27]

3 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Here's the thing though. Pujols annoys me. Darvish doesn't. How many millions per win does that add to his total?

Damn, I was really hoping the next post would be something about RBIs.

[Inside Pitch]

40 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Here's the thing though. Pujols annoys me. Darvish doesn't. How many millions per win does that add to his total?

Eleventy

[Dtwncbad]

2 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

Here's the thing though. Pujols annoys me. Darvish doesn't. How many millions per win does that add to his total?

Pujols personally doesn't annoy me.  He seems to be a pretty good dude.  But it scares me that at this point in his offensive game he is basically up there to hit a fly ball to left and hope it catches a wind flurry and drifts out.  I am not seen him destroy balls like he used to.

He can probably be functional for a couple.more years but the thrill of watching him hit is long gone.

[tomsred]

Each year that goes by it becomes not what Pujols can do performance wise, but more about his ability to provide experience to the younger guys by mentoring them, and how much he can provide in revenue enhancement due to his player reputation especially among casual fans.  For serious fans who want to win now, he loses ground bit by bit, and he is seen as an impediment toward moving to the next generation of player.  Personally, I can't see the Angels signing a veteran player on the decline to a long term commitment any more.  Team executives will tell you that Pujols was a good move, but they are looking at what he brings to the community, enhanced revenue, reputation, leadership, charitable development, etc., not what he can practically provide on field alone anymore.  

So far I really like what Eppler is doing, if nothing else it highlights for me just how poor a job JD did in his tenure here.  2018 is going to be real interesting as financial restrictions will be behind us.  That doesn't mean we will go hog wild adding talent, but what kind of talent will Eppler chase when he gets there will be interesting and very telltale about his abilities in that kind of environment and stage of development.  So far he is acting maturely, on a good overall plan, and very patiently (like he plans on being here for the next 10 years).  I like that, we should have went straight to him after the Reagins' regime.

[Jobu]

If you need a mentor, call Tony Robbins. We need a hitter. 

[tdawg87]

I hear Darvish is a terrible driver.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

11 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

It would be reasonable to give three years and then take a new look at the 33 or 34 yr old to see what they have left.

Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson still had high 90+ fastballs into the mid 40s.

But they were super human.

[eligrba]

9 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson still had high 90+ fastballs into the mid 40s.

But they were super human.

Velocity helped but it was not what made them super humans.

[Docwaukee]

11 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I hear Darvish is a terrible driver.

but Anaheimbob is an excellent driver.