AngelsWwin.com 2017 Season Primer Part X: Catcher

[AngelsWin.com]

 

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer - 

 

Author’s Note: If you missed the previous installments you can find Part I here, Part II here, Part III here, Part IV here, Part V here, Part VI here, Part VII here, Part VIII here, and Part IX, here.

 

Continuing the positional roundtable discussion, let us talk about the Angels current catching situation.

 

When AngelsWin.com released the Primer Introduction it was my heavy suspicion that the Angels would sign or trade for a veteran catcher and trade one of Carlos Perez and Jett Bandy.

 

To be honest the Bandy trade caught the author off guard as he seemed to be a good choice to be the team’s backup catcher. Here Eppler decided to pull off a “two birds, one stone” approach again by acquiring right-handed hitting catcher Martin Maldonado and right-handed pitcher Drew Gagnon from the Brewers in exchange for Jett.

 

Despite the loss of Bandy, it is understandable why Billy went this route because it does provide a capable veteran replacement in the form of Maldonado who has two years of arbitration control left and is widely considered an above average pitch framer. Essentially we traded experience for youth.

 

On top of that Eppler may have picked up a sneaky-good pitcher in Gagnon, who ran a 52.2% GB% in 2016 as was pointed out to me by Angelswin.com member ‘Dochalo’ here, shortly after the trade. Drew may have developed or reincorporated a two-seam or sinking fastball into his pitch repertoire. Only time will reveal the reasoning behind the deal.

 

This trade has incrementally improved the team for 2017 but the guy that seemed the more likely of the two to be traded, Carlos Perez, is still here. Could he also be moved in trade?

 

The answer of course is maybe, which is not much of an answer but is a real possibility if Eppler continues to reimage the team to align with his vision of the 2017 Angels squad.

 

To get a better idea of what we have we need to understand our projected offensive output for our current catching tandem, looking at running MLB averages in recent history as seen below:

Maldonado tends to hit LHP better than he does RHP. Perez hits RHP better than he does LHP. Neither one of them is “hot fire” in regards to their platoon splits.

Both of them do bring excellent defensive skills to the table. As mentioned above Maldonado is a good pitch framer and ranked in the top 25% of catchers in that metric, per StatCorner, in 2016 and has a career 35% caught stealing rate. Perez has good mobility behind the plate and is good at throwing runners out with a career 38% caught stealing rate as well. Unfortunately Perez ranks in the bottom 25% of pitch framers for 2016.

 

If Eppler is emphasizing better pitch framing as part of his defensive makeover of the team there is a possibility that he could still trade Perez in favor of another catcher either in free agency or in trade to not only improve overall team framing but also offense against RHP.

 

When you examine the remaining free agent catchers on the market only one of them, A.J. Ellis, ranked positively in pitch framing and he is borderline in the metric. This really means that if the Angels want to upgrade again for a catcher who is a better pitch framer they will need to trade for a catcher that can do that for them.

 

Looking at that same StatCorner 2016 leaderboard a couple of names jump out as possibilities, Miguel Montero and Tony Wolters.

 

Montero, during the 2016 World Series, expressed displeasure at the lack of playing time he was given during that run. More importantly he is in the final season of his 6-year contract and the Cubs are probably willing to move him in trade with the emergence of Willson Contreras as their primary backstop. He also hits RHP well to the tune of a career wRC+ of 108 so Miguel improves defense and offense, checking off two important boxes for offseason upgrading.

 

When you consider the likelihood that the Cubs probably do not want to put Schwarber behind the plate very often, if at all, the makings of a trade could take shape here with a swap of bad contracts.

 

It would not be a complete surprise to see the Angels approach Chicago with a swap of Huston Street for Miguel Montero. They both underperformed in 2016 so in terms of basic surplus WAR value they are nearly equal (about negative $6MM-7MM each). Cases could certainly be made that Street and Montero are actually better than what we saw in 2016 so those WAR valuations could certainly shift based on which argument you buy.

 

A deal like this would certainly impact our bullpen but there would be a real improvement in pitch framing as Miguel has consistently graded out very well in the metric per StatCorner. Also the Angels could then go out and pick up a right-handed reliever in free agency of which there are quite a few to select from and replace the loss of Huston.

 

There is even a possibility the trade could expand. The Cubs will need a backup catcher behind Contreras so the Angels could conceivably send Perez in the deal. Chicago, even after the Soler trade, has a lot of outfield depth and the Angels could target someone like Happ (unlikely) or Zagunis (more likely) in a potential exchange.

 

The other name, Tony Wolters, plays for Colorado and the Rockies probably do not want to start the season with two inexperienced backstops behind the plate. Here, too, the Angels could possibly dangle Cron (particularly if Colorado does not sign a free agent hitter) or Perez as the basis for a trade.

 

Also, just like a possible Cubs deal, the Angels might be able to expand this trade by trying to acquire left-handed reliever Jake McGee, who is also in the last year of his contract. A Cron or Perez based trade for Wolters and McGee would make a lot of sense for the Halos.

 

Beyond those two names the remainder of the market is bare. Catchers, due to their part-time nature, are a pretty fluid currency and so the Angels may not be done making moves to improve their catching duo for the 2017 season especially when you look at what remains on the free agent market at the position.

 

To be clear the Angels can stand pat after the Bandy trade and they will have a backstop tandem that will provide good defense, catch and throw ability, and a measure of pitch framing ability (Maldonado). This combination will likely prove to be good enough to impact the Halos season in a positive way. Either way there is still room for improvement behind the dish.

 

Behind the current projected starting two the Angels also have the following catchers in AA and AAA as depth:

 

• Jose Briceno
• Tony Sanchez
• Webster Rivas
• Wade Wass

 

If a Major League starter goes down the Angels would likely call up Jose Briceno or Tony Sanchez to fill in temporarily (probably the latter).

 

It would also not be a surprise to see the Angels sign one or more additional catchers to Minor League contracts to shore up the depth chart before Spring Training arrives.

 

Author’s Choice – If Eppler’s obsession with pitch framing continues I could easily see a trade with the Cubs involving Street and Montero. Both of them have young guys breathing down their necks (Bedrosian and Contreras respectively), both underperformed in 2016 primarily due to injury and some bad luck, and both have fairly expensive 2017 salaries ($9MM and $14MM respectively).

 

This potential swap makes a lot of sense for both teams. The Angels would take on another $2.5MM in AAV (the difference between Street’s and Montero’s AAV’s for 2017) and could use the opportunity to either a ) send Perez in the trade or b ) send one or more prospects, to acquire one or more pieces back from the Cubs to fill long-term holes in our farm system. The Cubs add another relief option to their bullpen with closer experience and an option year if he performs well in addition to freeing up additional payroll to sign one or more of their young superstars to a long-term extension.

 

Personally if this went down I could see a Huston Street and Carlos Perez deal for Miguel Montero, OF Mark Zagunis, and LHR John Leathersich or something similar. It would give us one year of an excellent pitch framer who could platoon properly with Maldonado (Montero is a lefty who hits RHP better than Perez), it would give us a potential long-term solution in LF with Zagunis, and Leathersich could join the bullpen as a left-handed option to pair with Alvarez.

 

If the Angels prefer Wolters (and he is actually available) I could see the team sending Perez and another prospect or two for Wolters and McGee with the Rockies picking up some of Jake’s projected $5.9MM arbitration salary. The latter really underperformed primarily due to the high altitude environment which clearly impacted the movement of his pitches.

 

Finally you may be asking why we have not seen these moves yet. The Angels and the Cubs may be waiting for Spring Training to see Street and/or Montero in action to make sure things are acceptable performance-wise. The Rockies seem to be setting the stage for a trade of one of their outfielders so they can move Desmond off of first base and either sign a free agent bat or trade for a first baseman and they have been rumored to be considering a veteran upgrade at catcher themselves because both Wolters and Murphy are young and the Rockies rated very poorly at controlling the running game (which Perez would definitely improve for them).

 

Of course none of this could actually be in the works or happening which is fine too but it feels like the Angels have at least one more trick up their sleeve if pitch framing is critical in Eppler’s eyes (and that appears to be the case).

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[Chuck]

Good read, @ettin

[totdprods]

Francisco Arcia is currently coupled with Sanchez to be SLC's catching tandem, FYI.

[Troll Daddy]

Sign Weiters ... he's a terrible pitch framer but he can hit the frickin ball. 

Maldonado was signed because he's a superior defender and has a canon for a arm ... plus veteran leadership. 

[ettin]

39 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Francisco Arcia is currently coupled with Sanchez to be SLC's catching tandem, FYI.

I felt like I was missing someone. The Angels have lost three catchers recently, Graterol, McGee, Bemboom (I had a really great Soprano's reference in my original write up of this article "Bada Bing Bada Bemboom!" which flew out the door with him), who were lost on waivers, to free agency, and Rule 5 respectively and the team acquired a new one in Sanchez so it has been a pretty fluid situation in the Minors. Oops!

[Hubs]

While I understand why the Angels would be interested in Miguel Monetero, the trade of Huston Street makes zero sense for either team. While it's true both players are on coming off a below average year, a closer with a 6+ ERA has zero trade value, even for a low tier hitting catcher, albeit one with an outstanding pitch framing ability. 

Cron is appealing to Colorado, and Wolters appeals to us, sure, but asking the Rockies to throw in a solid if underperforming lefty reliever and pay part of his salary is sadly dreaming. If they don't want to pay him, they can simply cut him. Therefore, he has value.

Finally, while I see this article seems to be focused on pitch framing and defensive backstops, there is no mention of getting any offense from the position. While some players may not make sense from a defensive point of view, they may from an offensive point of view, so you should consider whether they want to add offense at the position. Normally, you have examined multiple options at each position of doubt, but in this one, you clearly went one way and stuck to your guns. 

The Angels OPS at the catcher position last year was a measely .648 with a low .271 OBP. Adding offense, especially OBP may also be a consideration at the Catcher position, so familiar names like Geovany Soto or Chris Iannetta, or someone like Nick Hundley or someone else more offensive minded may get passing interest if they remain unsigned closer to the middle of February. Soto and Iannetta are not far removed from having positive defensive ratings and even Hank Conger is around if they want another defensive bat. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

Sign Weiters ... he's a terrible pitch framer but he can hit the frickin ball. 

Career .249/.302/.402-.711 OPS away from Baltimore

Combined .250/.302/.422 - .724 OPS (94 OPS+) 2013-2016

Iannetta managed a 105 OPS+ and a 716 OPS as an Angel....   Weiters made 15 Mil last year.    His bat hasn't been that impressive.
 

[Troll Daddy]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Career .249/.302/.402-.711 OPS away from Baltimore

Combined .250/.302/.422 - .724 OPS (94 OPS+) 2013-2016

Iannetta managed a 105 OPS+ and a 716 OPS as an Angel....   Weiters made 15 Mil last year.    His bat hasn't been that impressive.
 

So you understand my point

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Troll Daddy said:

So you understand my point

If directly contradicting your statement means I understand your point..  Sure.     Also, black is white and stop means go.

[ettin]

58 minutes ago, Hubs said:

While I understand why the Angels would be interested in Miguel Monetero, the trade of Huston Street makes zero sense for either team. While it's true both players are on coming off a below average year, a closer with a 6+ ERA has zero trade value, even for a low tier hitting catcher, albeit one with an outstanding pitch framing ability. 

You do realize that Street had two separate injuries last year combined with some terrible BABIP numbers particularly against RHP? See here for the details: https://angelswinblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/angelswincom-2017-season-primer-part-v.html

Cron is appealing to Colorado, and Wolters appeals to us, sure, but asking the Rockies to throw in a solid if underperforming lefty reliever and pay part of his salary is sadly dreaming. If they don't want to pay him, they can simply cut him. Therefore, he has value.

C.J., with his remaining four years of control has approximately $30M-35M in surplus value. Wolters, who is a much less defined and unproven entity in the Majors, probably has something on the order of $15M-$20M in value at best. McGee, with one year left, probably has about $10M or so left in surplus value. So maybe they don't eat salary but the trade has basis in reality. The reason I suggested they eat some of his salary is to balance out the total value of the trade and it would ease the Angels AAV concerns in making the trade.

Finally, while I see this article seems to be focused on pitch framing and defensive backstops, there is no mention of getting any offense from the position. While some players may not make sense from a defensive point of view, they may from an offensive point of view, so you should consider whether they want to add offense at the position. Normally, you have examined multiple options at each position of doubt, but in this one, you clearly went one way and stuck to your guns. 

Did you miss the graph that talked about Maldonado's and Perez's offense? It pretty clearly shows that there is room to upgrade, particularly vs. RHP. You may be correct that I didn't dwell on offense as much and that is probably because defense is so important out of the catcher position, particularly for a Mike Scioscia-led team. In the above I did explore the options and there are not many if pitch framing is the goal. Only two players might be available in trade that match that criteria and I listed them and discussed them. Yes I did go hard in that direction because it seems like the only direction the team can go in if they want to improve at catcher any further. Montero would be a boon not only in pitch framing but he would improve the team against RHP significantly over Perez/Bandy which makes the 2017 team that much better vs. RHP.

 

58 minutes ago, Hubs said:

The Angels OPS at the catcher position last year was a measely .648 with a low .271 OBP. Adding offense, especially OBP may also be a consideration at the Catcher position, so familiar names like Geovany Soto or Chris Iannetta, or someone like Nick Hundley or someone else more offensive minded may get passing interest if they remain unsigned closer to the middle of February. Soto and Iannetta are not far removed from having positive defensive ratings and even Hank Conger is around if they want another defensive bat.

Agreed that catcher is clearly a position the team could improve on offensively in 2017. However defense is the #1 priority so the team will likely sacrifice offense for defense if they have to make a choice. This is why a Montero trade makes sense because they would improve in both. The team could certainly revisit with Soto but Hundley is a terrible pitch framer and as we just discovered Eppler values that skill so it makes that seem less likely from my point of view despite the fact that Nick is left-handed which is what we need. Thanks for responding Hubs.

 

[Hubs]

Ettin, I did miss that graph, sorry. Still, you had put out suggestions for free agency and trade in both your left field and second base primers. Seeing as Catcher is the other offensive black hole position, I just wanted to see another out of the box option. Thanks for the good articles.

To revisit your other points, I disagree completely that Montero is even available, let alone could be had for Street. Schwaber is not going to catch full time in the majors so they need backstop depth. And you can bet Epstein and Maddon value his defense highly.

I also wouldn't get that caught up in surplus value, sure people look at that, but that is only one facet of a potential trade. I think they will go offensive if they get another catcher, likely via free agency when ST gets closer and they can get a deal. Nick Hundley would fit, even though he is rated as a poor pitch framer. His offense slipped a bit in 2016, but had a career year in 2016, so if he is available for a one year deal to split time with Maldonado, Perez can always be stashed at AAA. I doubt this happens, but I think it's more likely than a trade for Wolters or Montero.

Hundley's bat, if he hit like he did in 2015 would more than make up for his lack of defensive skills with his bat. He was above average in 2016, for the catcher spot too. And he is as you said, left handed.

[ettin]

35 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Ettin, I did miss that graph, sorry. Still, you had put out suggestions for free agency and trade in both your left field and second base primers. Seeing as Catcher is the other offensive black hole position, I just wanted to see another out of the box option. Thanks for the good articles.

To revisit your other points, I disagree completely that Montero is even available, let alone could be had for Street. Schwaber is not going to catch full time in the majors so they need backstop depth. And you can bet Epstein and Maddon value his defense highly.

I also wouldn't get that caught up in surplus value, sure people look at that, but that is only one facet of a potential trade. I think they will go offensive if they get another catcher, likely via free agency when ST gets closer and they can get a deal. Nick Hundley would fit, even though he is rated as a poor pitch framer. His offense slipped a bit in 2016, but had a career year in 2016, so if he is available for a one year deal to split time with Maldonado, Perez can always be stashed at AAA. I doubt this happens, but I think it's more likely than a trade for Wolters or Montero.

Hundley's bat, if he hit like he did in 2015 would more than make up for his lack of defensive skills with his bat. He was above average in 2016, for the catcher spot too. And he is as you said, left handed.

I mentioned free agents too with the link embedded in their to a list I put together on FanGraphs of remaining free agent catchers, none of which were good at pitch framing out of the ones remaining unsigned (Ellis being the best of that group in 2016 at basically a net gain/loss of zero).

Montero is entering the last season of his contract (his walk year). He will lose playing time to Contreras who is great offensively and was an above average pitch framer. I could easily see Miguel complaining about playing time even before the year starts as Willson is likely to pick up the lion's share of it. Although the Cubs could certainly afford to keep Montero they are just as likely to trade him as well for other areas of need in my opinion. One of their primary areas of need is their bullpen and they know just as well as the Angels that injury and bad luck played a large role in Huston's 2016 season. Just like bad luck played a role in Montero's season.

When we consider what impact a bad pitch framer can have for the team I'd reference this article, posted recently on FanGraphs, that illustrates the possible impact of a bad framer: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-bad-could-a-pitch-framer-possibly-be/

It may make you reconsider the value of someone like Hundley who could certainly improve our offense but could also be a large, negative impact on our pitching staff that would outweigh any value he brings with his bat as Nick has consistently ranked at the bottom of pitch framers year after year.

Just something to consider Hubs and thanks for the back and forth

[Hubs]

AJ Ellis was signed by the Marlins a few weeks back.

 

[Angel Oracle]

Can Maldonado be a good pitch framing mentor for Perez?   Perez actually hits righties decently; and does everything else, besides pitch framing, solidly behind the plate.

Combine Maldonado's OPS vs lefties with Perez' OPS vs. righties, and the total OPS approaches .700.   That is fine for the catching position, given their solid defensive talents. 

As decent/solid as Montero's hitting and pitch framing are, his arm has become substandard with a CS% sinking down to not much over 10% in 2016 after having back-to-back 40% CS% seasons in 2011-2012.

[nikkachez]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Career .249/.302/.402-.711 OPS away from Baltimore

Combined .250/.302/.422 - .724 OPS (94 OPS+) 2013-2016

Iannetta managed a 105 OPS+ and a 716 OPS as an Angel....   Weiters made 15 Mil last year.    His bat hasn't been that impressive.
 

 

Thaaaaank you

[nikkachez]

This is one area of concern for me, I think Perez and Maldonado are fine as backups, but one has to start and finding a catcher on the free agent market in upcoming years just isn't an option (unless you want to overpay for a 32-year old Jonathan Lucroy next winter). Catcher is a position of long-term uncertainty for me (up there with second base, third base, and left field). 

[Hubs]

22 minutes ago, nikkachez said:

This is one area of concern for me, I think Perez and Maldonado are fine as backups, but one has to start and finding a catcher on the free agent market in upcoming years just isn't an option (unless you want to overpay for a 32-year old Jonathan Lucroy next winter). Catcher is a position of long-term uncertainty for me (up there with second base, third base, and left field). 

The Angels obviously believe strongly in Ward. His power and average dipped in full season ball, but he is still the catcher of the future. I wouldn't be surprised if he started at AA, but also could start at A+ again, with a promotion to AA and then to AAA if he does well. We could see him in 2018.

[totdprods]

12 minutes ago, Hubs said:

The Angels obviously believe strongly in Ward. His power and average dipped in full season ball, but he is still the catcher of the future. I wouldn't be surprised if he started at AA, but also could start at A+ again, with a promotion to AA and then to AAA if he does well. We could see him in 2018.

I'm a way more worried about 2B, LF, and 3B come 2018-19 than I am catcher. Maldonado, Perez, Ward, and possibly even Sanchez should be sufficient, and I expect it's a real possibility we see a vet back-up brought in sometime in that span too. Usually not too hard to find.

[Second Base]

I get the feeling we're reinventing the wheel a bit with the trade possibilities. I mean the Angels clearly value defense in a catcher and feel they have enough offense to sustain fielding a catching tandem that doesn't hit particularly well.

We're set for 2017-18 at catcher. What we really need is a RP. And rather than trade fir one create another hole, why not just sign one in FA? There are a ton available.