Maybin Signing a Precursor for Angels Offseason?

[Second Base]

In November 2015, I think just about everyone had pegged the Angels a prime target for the top free agents on the market.  The Angels had finished a game shy of the playoffs after having the best record in the AL the year before, and there was a need in left-field after the Josh Hamilton fiasco and Matt Joyce floundering.  The Angels had a new General Manager waiting to make his mark, and a plethora of free agent outfielders that included Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and more.  The stars had seemingly aligned for a big splash or three.  But then the unthinkable happened.  The Angels suddenly stopped spending money.  In his ill-advised interview aboard a yacht, Arte Moreno explained in not so many words that the Angels had to get their payroll under control.  Future obligations and previous ill-advised trades and signings (Vernon Wells and Josh Hamilton specifically) had hampered the Angels' ability to invest in their future. 

This proved to be a disastrous development.  Not only were they stuck with an unproductive Daniel Nava-Craig Gentry platoon in LF, but the Angels had a dead-last ranked farm system and a bloated payroll.  Article after article came out with every writer agreeing that the Angels were wasting Mike Trout and should trade him.  This would of course begin a frenzy of trade scenarios that every fanboy from every team would concoct (Trout to the Yankees for A-Rod and Teixeira!).  This was all frosting atop the crap cake served to Angels fans when they finished fourth in a weak AL West and had their worst record in over a decade. 

Most fans wouldn't blame Billy Eppler though.  He inherited this mess, and would have to steer them out of it, all while juggling the engorged egos of a meddling, yet suddenly prohibitive billionaire owner and a manager that has grown used to having more of a say in the direction of the team than any other manager in baseball.  No, most blame would go places other than Eppler.  Moreno was the easiest target, as most fans blamed him for the Hamilton situation, as he had signed him in the first place, knowing full-well what may happen if a relapse occurred.  Others still would blame former General Manager Jerry Dipoto, who had quit mid season, only to work for the Boston Red Sox and then the Angels division rivals, the Seattle Mariners.  Dipoto had gone on a spending spree that just did not work out, all the while depleting the farm system. 

Yet here we stand in year two of the Eppler regime, and the one thing we can say for sure is that Billy just can't pass up a chance to buy low.  Daniel Nava, Craig Gentry, Cliff Pennington, Jefry Marte, Geo Soto, Jose Valdez, JC Ramirez, Deolis Guerra and Ji-Man Choi come to mind.  Of course the risk you take when investing in players that are formerly good, or might still be good someday is that sometimes, you're either too late, too early, or just not in the right place.  Gentry and Nava were a disaster.  Pennington was either hurt or unproductive.  Soto was hurt and Choi was over-matched.  And yet Eppler did score with Guerra, Marte and Ramirez.  All had considerable success with the Angels.

And now we've reached our current conjecture in Eppler's "buy low" investment process.  Cameron Maybin.  The Angels acquired the up and down outfielder in exchange for minor leaguer and Nuke LaLoosh impersonator Victor Alcantara.  Maybin has been spectacularly hyped, and a giant disappointment at times.  He's also been quite productive in short busts, like last year's 90 game stretch and that one year he had in San Diego.  At the price of 9 million and a inconsistent prospect, Eppler appears again to be investing in another candidate that could make him look brilliant, or silly.  But the advantage in this process is that the Angels (or more specifically) Arte Moreno have a greater opportunity to pocket extra money.  Fans will hope that this stringent approach to free agency will result in someday acquiring the talent they need to compete, but we'll wait and see what the future holds.  For now, it appears the angels are hoping their current roster as constructed will be enough to compete.  Their record in the second half certainly appears to support this sort of hope.  Injuries are unpredictable, and perhaps the 2016 Angels may have had their glory if not for losing Richards, Heaney and Tropeano.  Or perhaps the real goal is to compete in 2018, when heaney and Tropeano return, and top prospects Matt Thaiss and Jahmai Jones could perhaps help. 

Still, it has become apparent that the Angels may end up not spending much money again this winter.  And if that's the case, holding onto that second round pick (their first is protected) and remaining under the salary cap could be their likeliest option.  It may not make fans happy, and it might result in a boring offseason, but it could be beneficial.  Neil Walker is clearly an amazing fit for this team.  But with his qualifying offer, it would mean that not only would they need to spend money, the'd also be sacrificing their future, which runs counter-culture to what Eppler has done so far.  As for second base, rumor has it Chase Utley wants to remain in Southern California.  You never know. 

[Ohtaniland]

I think Arte will actually cut the payroll slightly this season. Things haven't exactly gone his way with the big contracts so buying low isn't such a bad idea. Why not, other teams are doing it and getting better or even equal results. 

[disarcina]

YES - Halos not going to do much -- no blockbuster trades/ signings are going to get done.

[DMVol]

I don't get your point...no comparison between Maybin and Gentry/Nava...he's a better player and much more expensive...

[Troll Daddy]

1 hour ago, CALZONE said:

I think Arte will actually cut the payroll slightly this season. Things haven't exactly gone his way with the big contracts so buying low isn't such a bad idea. Why not, other teams are doing it and getting better or even equal results. 

Everything that the FO has said going into the off season ... leads me to think otherwise. Getting Maybin was a nice early surprise. 

[Second Base]

I think the point is what Cal echoed, we may be in for another long winter, 3rd or 4th in a row. I'm thinking Maybin, Utley and a reliever might be all of it.

[Troll Daddy]

8 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I think the point is what Cal echoed, we may be in for another long winter, 3rd or 4th in a row. I'm thinking Maybin, Utley and a reliever might be all of it.

I think another SP is in the plan.

[totdprods]

I don't think spending money is the biggest concern for the FO, but rather working themselves into a corner with contracts or players that are untradeable due to contract length or cratering production. Contracts like that coupled with a struggling big league team and desolate farm is a bad recipe.

But the money is there to spend on short-term contracts and mid-tier players. Eppler and Arte know they need to still keep the team competitive to keep the franchise profitable. 

[Ohtaniland]

21 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I think the point is what Cal echoed, we may be in for another long winter, 3rd or 4th in a row. I'm thinking Maybin, Utley and a reliever might be all of it.

I think that we are going to be waiting on the tarmac for another season. We all know that the plane's going to eventually take off but we're going to have to wait until Arte is satisfied that Eppler is done de-icing the wings. 

[ukyah]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

I think the point is what Cal echoed, we may be in for another long winter, 3rd or 4th in a row. I'm thinking Maybin, Utley and a reliever might be all of it.

 

the point should be that i didn't go to a single game this year or last. the last game i attended was game one of the alds. my wife, who was with me, now infrequently asks me about them. their "prudence" is driving away fans, and all this 3 million attendance is hogwash and nobody argues that.

you created farm system problems? buy your way out of it, and draft well in the meantime.

[Second Base]

4 minutes ago, ukyah said:

 

the point should be that i didn't go to a single game this year or last. the last game i attended was game one of the alds. my wife, who was with me, now infrequently asks me about them. their "prudence" is driving away fans, and all this 3 million attendance is hogwash and nobody argues that.

you created farm system problems? buy your way out of it, and draft well in the meantime.

No argument here. They've been fudging those attendance numbers for years. And as for the financial strain, Arte created this. Taking on Vernon Wells' salary, paying Hamilton 25 million a year, Weaver and Wilson 17 million a year. He wants a winner, no doubt about that. But his poor decision making put the team in the financial hole it's in, and instead of spending his way out of it by using the money to acquire prospects while maintaining a competitive team, he's basically told Eppler to fix it and not spend any money anymore.

The only way that works is if you're willing to rebuild, but they said in no unclear terms that they won't rebuild. So the end result is a roster that can neither be supplemented by free agents or prospects (because the farm is weak). Instead of getting players that can truly help, you're forced to invest in guys no one else wants that you think can work.

I don't blame Billy for Nava or Gentry, both were very good only a year and a half before they were signed. I don't blame him for Maybin either. Maybe he's a late bloomer and finally figured it out, or maybe he can replicate what he did in San Diego. But it's not hard to envision Maybin simply being unspectacular. But it's an upgrade over the garbage we've had I suppose. Even if it did cost 9 million and a decent relief prospect.

[Stradling]

31 minutes ago, ukyah said:

 

the point should be that i didn't go to a single game this year or last. the last game i attended was game one of the alds. my wife, who was with me, now infrequently asks me about them. their "prudence" is driving away fans, and all this 3 million attendance is hogwash and nobody argues that.

you created farm system problems? buy your way out of it, and draft well in the meantime.

Absolutely. 

[Ohtaniland]

59 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Absolutely. 

You can't really expect Arte to keep throwing money at players to help subsidize the failed contracts and years of failed trades, farms and drafts. It would require Arte to spend about $250M in payroll to fix this mess right away. We need an Ace pitcher and a number 2, we need a revamped bullpen with a true setup guy and a real lights out shutdown closer. We need a 3B, a 2B and you think Arte can do that. We also need to buyout Albert and Sosh and move forward with a new manager and a  new team of youthful athletic players. 

Tall order and it's not going to happen. We will continue contending with the A's until they finally get it.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, ukyah said:

 

the point should be that i didn't go to a single game this year or last. the last game i attended was game one of the alds. my wife, who was with me, now infrequently asks me about them. their "prudence" is driving away fans, and all this 3 million attendance is hogwash and nobody argues that.

you created farm system problems? buy your way out of it, and draft well in the meantime.

that was my mantra last off season.  We passed up ample opportunity to do so.  If there was ever a time for Arte to extend beyond his normal comfort zone in terms of payroll, it would have been last year when there was plenty of low hanging fruit.  But the early returns on many of those high end contracts have been mixed at best.  Even though many on the list would have helped, I am guessing that Arte feels he dodged some bullets by not tapping into last years LF market.  Namely by staying away from Upton and Heyward.  Two guys on the aw wish list for many (myself included).  Coupled with the fact that our injuries derailed us from the start, the decision looks both smart and lucky.  

this year's FA pool is similar to what will be happening tomorrow.  A lot of nose holding.  

Our 2016 payroll ended up just shy of 170mil.  The CBT hit was even higher.  

For 2017, with the addition of Maybin and with exercising Escobar's option, and the extra 5 mil for Nolasco we are around 150mil with the tax hit around the same level.   Leaving us with about 20mil to spend  if we were to get back to that 170mil.  

But I agree with Calzone (hold on why I go take a shower ).  I don't think we are going anywhere near the CBT threshold and in fact we have seen in the past that Arte's general comfort level for payroll is up to 165mil.  So I figure we'll add about 15mil from where we stand.  That means a couple of 1yr contracts in my opinion.  

I had mentioned it in some previous musings on our winter plans that I think we are going to want to maintain our current payroll flexibility for 2018.  As Scotty mentioned, I think Maybin is a good indicator of the direction we are going.  Trout's salary take a big jump next year.  We'll see arb raises again to Richards, Shoe and Calhoun and several players will become arb eligible although most won't be getting a ton as they are relievers.  Nonetheless, I think we'll certainly decline the options on Street and Nolasco and we won't be paying Escboar, Maybe, Pennington so we are at around 125mil for 2018.  

By that time, there should be a minor league player or two that can actually help as well.  

I seriously doubt we make a move on a player requiring us to give up our 2nd round pick.  So we're looking at drawing from a pool that includes Chase Utley, Stephen Drew, Aaron Hill, and maybe Luis Valbuena for 2b.  Nova, Volquez, Niese, Holland, Fister, Dickey, Chacin, and Cashner for SP.  We are likely excluded from any of the top end relievers not just because of comps, but also because we have a closer that we are paying 9mil.   Yes, Huston Street will be in the BSOHL after his knee replacement.  

If they want to add a bunch of guys on 1 yr deals, I am all for it, but adding significant payroll for this year doesn't excite me and likely doesn't move the needle enough to get us where we would be a legit contender.  With our farm system and/or depth, the weak FA market, and our potential injury concerns, we are a fringy 2nd wild card hopeful at best.  Now that we have LF filled, who else out there is gonna make that much of a difference? 

 

[ukyah]

1 hour ago, CALZONE said:

You can't really expect Arte to keep throwing money at players to help subsidize the failed contracts and years of failed trades, farms and drafts. It would require Arte to spend about $250M in payroll to fix this mess right away. We need an Ace pitcher and a number 2, we need a revamped bullpen with a true setup guy and a real lights out shutdown closer. We need a 3B, a 2B and you think Arte can do that. We also need to buyout Albert and Sosh and move forward with a new manager and a  new team of youthful athletic players. 

Tall order and it's not going to happen. We will continue contending with the A's until they finally get it.

 

that's a misrepresentation of the facts. however, to your overall point, yes, i do expect arte to throw huge money at the payroll. am i getting a lot of breaks financially, as a fan? 

[ukyah]

doc, i agree with your assessments of the available FA market, etc. 

my point is, i'm a fan, and if you want me to really invest, which means financially, then i don't want to hear about your financial restraint. put the best team on the field that you can. if i decide that what you "can" do isn't enough, then i'll withhold my dollars. 

i've followed the angels every day since that game 1 alds loss, i am a true fan, but what dollars have they earned from me since then?

if you've fucked up your drafts and trades, then i expect them to go out and wisely invest in the best players to help them. go get a jansen and move street to the eighth inning. that's a good investment and will make the team better. i'm not saying go give the wrong guy money. i'm saying, i don't believe in their ceiling. show me the money. draft and develop better, and then you can save money.

this is california. this is LA. get busy getting busy.

[beatlesrule]

^^^Is your shift key broken?   Can't be because I see a question mark.  Why do you hate capital letters?

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, CALZONE said:

You can't really expect Arte to keep throwing money at players to help subsidize the failed contracts and years of failed trades, farms and drafts. It would require Arte to spend about $250M in payroll to fix this mess right away. We need an Ace pitcher and a number 2, we need a revamped bullpen with a true setup guy and a real lights out shutdown closer. We need a 3B, a 2B and you think Arte can do that. We also need to buyout Albert and Sosh and move forward with a new manager and a  new team of youthful athletic players. 

Tall order and it's not going to happen. We will continue contending with the A's until they finally get it.

No I don't expect him to do it, but he should do it.  He got us into this mess, so buy a quality team while building the farm.  Invest in the now while you develop the future.  Also, nowhere did I say he has to sign huge free agents to make this happen.  The team should be right up against the salary threshold though, there is no reason not to be.  Also this team can be very good with Albert and with Scioscia, there's zero reason to buy them out.  Even if you're right, as a fan why shouldn't I expect him to buy them out, he's the one that bought them in the first place.  Claude you don't want an athletic team, you want a cheap team, which is fine, just don't pretend it's not true.  Maybin is athletic and yet you don't like that trade.  

[DMVol]

12 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I think the point is what Cal echoed, we may be in for another long winter, 3rd or 4th in a row. I'm thinking Maybin, Utley and a reliever might be all of it.

Scotty:  I didn't mean to be gruff but, at least at this point, I am encouraged....again, Maybin is a 9 million dollar investment as opposed to a minimal investment in Nava/Gentry last year....he is also, if he performs close to most of 2015 (faded some in the second half) and 2016, a far superior player to either....We'll see what happens but I don't think we're finished spending....With the FA market so weak, I wouldn't be surprised to see another Maybin type of deal (taking on money) for a SP or a 2bman.....But, point being, Maybin to me is an encouraging, rather than discouraging start....Eppler made a splash early last year with Simmons and then he shut it down but, with Simmons, we moved some salary (Aybar) to make it a neutral type of deal....With Maybin, we've added...so we'll see....

[Stradling]

The more I think about this trade the more I like it.  At the current cost for WAR in free agency which I think I read is over $8 million, Maybin moving from center to left, well I think he will be worth his contract on the defensive side alone. It wouldn't shock me if he has a 1.5 dWar, to go along with a 1oWar.  He very easily could be a 2.5-3 win player next year.  I also love what this does to our line up.  The thought of his speed batting in front of Trout makes me happy. If we solve 2nd base with a guy like Utley, we will have a good deep line up.  

Escobar

Maybin

Trout

Albert

Calhoun

Cron

 

Utley 

Bandy

Simmons

 

[Ohtaniland]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

The more I think about this trade the more I like it.  At the current cost for WAR in free agency which I think I read is over $8 million, Maybin moving from center to left, well I think he will be worth his contract on the defensive side alone. It wouldn't shock me if he has a 1.5 dWar, to go along with a 1oWar.  He very easily could be a 2.5-3 win player next year.  I also love what this does to our line up.  The thought of his speed batting in front of Trout makes me happy. If we solve 2nd base with a guy like Utley, we will have a good deep line up.  

Escobar

Maybin

Trout

Albert

Calhoun

Cron

 

Utley 

Bandy

Simmons

 

Pujols turns 37 and Utley turns 38 before 2017. Escobar is 34.

Yep, building a team around Trout is fun. 

[ScruffytheJanitor]

I don't know. Eppler's comments about looking outside the organization for pitching help makes me think at least one FA pitcher is in the offing. MLBTR is giving us Nova, Utley, and... Nick Hundley? I could see that happening, with "Nick Hundley" being replaced with "Bench-Bat Du Jour" (Steve Pearce?) and a reliever (Cecil? Feliz?). 

Also: Why are people putting Maybin as the #2 hitter? I'd bet a dollar he's batting #9 most of the season. His OBP from last year ain't happening again.

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

Pujols turns 37 and Utley turns 38 before 2017. Escobar is 34.

Yep, building a team around Trout is fun. 

Let me know when we can find 22 year old free agents.  It is the responsibility of the owner and GM to put a competitive team out on the field.  You can sign free agents and build for the future by building a farm.  Jesus you truly hate your favorite team.  

[mtangelsfan]

14 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

Pujols turns 37 and Utley turns 38 before 2017. Escobar is 34.

Yep, building a team around Trout is fun. 

There it is!

[Stradling]

He took a time out, came back more subtle, and gradually became himself again.  He isn't happy unless he is miserable and shares that misery.