Weaver or Wilson?

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Weaver is one of my all time favorite Angels and a fellow CSULB alumni (channeling my inner AO) but that aside if it weren't for his history with the Angels would anyone here advocate bringing him in given how he did last year?  The answer should be no because there's got to be other options out there who have higher upside.  Each of the last 5 years his ERA has gone up, his WHIP has gone up, his HR/9 has stayed the same (1 yr) or gone up and his H/9 have stayed the same (1 yr) or gone up while he posted the second lowest K/9 of his career last year.  It's not a matter of him not putting forth the effort it's the fact that physically his skills are declining and that won't change.  As far as Wilson goes he's a good bounce back candidate for another team if he's able to pitch again but I think the Angels need to move on from him.

[Angelsjunky]

A couple months ago I advocated for giving Weaver a few million to stay on as the fifth starter/feisty veteran presence. But now I think it is time to move on. Wilson? Buh bye.

I'd much rather see what Meyer, Banuelos, or Campos have.

 

[Second Base]

6 hours ago, totdprods said:

I wouldn't sign either. If I was absolutely forced into signing one the week before spring training and we had done nothing else to address any pitching, I'd sign Weaver because I know he'd at least be able to take the mound, eat innings, and spin a decent game every third or fourth time out.

I don't know if CJ will ever pitch again.

I would take CJ for the exact opposite reason. We already know Weaver sucks. We can suck without Weaver. But Wilson, he might just be a good reliever like he was earlier in his career. 

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I would take CJ for the exact opposite reason. We already know Weaver sucks. We can suck without Weaver. But Wilson, he might just be a good reliever like he was earlier in his career. 

Three or four elbow surgeries and two shoulder surgeries, 35 years old, and he wasn't exactly lights out his last few years. 

Angels have spent way too much money on guys not even taking the field in recent years to gamble any amount of money on CJ. He's not worth it.

[Troll Daddy]

8 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Three or four elbow surgeries and two shoulder surgeries, 35 years old, and he wasn't exactly lights out his last few years. 

Angels have spent way too much money on guys not even taking the field in recent years to gamble any amount of money on CJ. He's not worth it.

I agree ... he's not right for the Angels. Although, he could be a comeback player for another team. I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers signed him. 

[disarcina]

Weaver or Wilson --  where is the Neither option?

[disarcina]

If you are asking which is more certain of pitching in 2017 -- I'd say Weaver.

Neither one pitches in Anaheim.

Going to be strange seeing Weaver in a different uniform........maybe the Dodgers will sign Jered -- pitcher's park -- he could be a fifth guy there.

[Tank]

don't think i'd sign wilson under any circumstances.

i see a glimmer of hope for weaver, but that really depends on the health of our other starters come spring. if we have the healthy arms we need, i don't really see a role for weaver on this team next year.

[eligrba]

No.

[Oz27]

A question for all the people saying Weaver will get signed ... by who and under what circumstances? I only see two paths for him playing organized baseball next year. One is we do something stupid and bring him back. The other is he is willing to accept a minor league deal with someone, which seems unlikely.

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Oz27 said:

A question for all the people saying Weaver will get signed ... by who and under what circumstances? I only see two paths for him playing organized baseball next year. One is we do something stupid and bring him back. The other is he is willing to accept a minor league deal with someone, which seems unlikely.

Last offseason, Detroit, a team intending to contend, signed a guy for two years and $16m who had been 11-27 with an ERA around 5.00 over his previous three years work. A guy who had, in that time, also given up 10.8 H/9 and walked 3 BB/9 while striking out 5.2 K/9. Those numbers pretty much match Weaver's 2016.

That guy is 33-year old Mike Pelfrey, he of a 65-91 career record. And he got a multi-year deal.

If Weaver wants to pitch, someone out there will offer a MLB-deal. San Diego, Miami, Atlanta, Dodgers, Oakland, Kansas City all have needs at SP, and most don't have vast payrolls to overpay guys like Nova, Hellickson, Hill, Hammel. 

Weaver was a terrible major league SP pitcher last season but he can still eat up a lot of innings and grind out a good start every three or four times, and for a team on a shoestring budget, that can have value.

 

[Oz27]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

Last offseason, Detroit, a team intending to contend, signed a guy for two years and $16m who had been 11-27 with an ERA around 5.00 over his previous three years work. A guy who had, in that time, also given up 10.8 H/9 and walked 3 BB/9 while striking out 5.2 K/9. Those numbers pretty much match Weaver's 2016.

That guy is 33-year old Mike Pelfrey, he of a 65-91 career record. And he got a multi-year deal.

If Weaver wants to pitch, someone out there will offer a MLB-deal. 

 

That's not a fair comparison, really. Pelfrey was coming off his best year in a long time. His FIP in 2015 was 4, his ERA was 4.26. His peripherals were trash but 2015 Pelfrey was much better than 2016 Weaver. I would be floored if there is a team stupid enough to think they should plug Weaver into its rotation. Now Amaro and Stewart and Ryan are all gone, baseball is rid of truly awful GMs. Nobody who is left could be that silly, surely.

[totdprods]

33 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

That's not a fair comparison, really. Pelfrey was coming off his best year in a long time. His FIP in 2015 was 4, his ERA was 4.26. His peripherals were trash but 2015 Pelfrey was much better than 2016 Weaver. I would be floored if there is a team stupid enough to think they should plug Weaver into its rotation. Now Amaro and Stewart and Ryan are all gone, baseball is rid of truly awful GMs. Nobody who is left could be that silly, surely.

Pelfrey was absolute garbage in '13 and '14. He had a decent '15. Point is even without much of a track record and only middling success, a contending team with money to spend saw him as a guy to give two guaranteed years too. 

There are plenty of small-budget teams that would take a risk on someone like Weaver for a one-year deal to eat innings. Any team that doesn't have big payroll or immediate playoff aspirations and has holes in the pen and rotation would find value in having Jered eat up some innings while they sorted out their long-term options. They're not signing him to be good. They're just signing him to keep the seat warm and save some service time and mileage on young arms, maybe teach some youngsters a thing or two.

I don't know if I can even name any SP for the Padres. Christian Friedrich? I'm not even entirely convinced Eppler won't keep an eye on him. If they use up the rest of their coin on 2B, RP, 4th OF, and C it wouldn't surprise me if they brought Weaver back cheap. 

 

[Erstad Grit]

1 hour ago, Oz27 said:

A question for all the people saying Weaver will get signed ... by who and under what circumstances? I only see two paths for him playing organized baseball next year. One is we do something stupid and bring him back. The other is he is willing to accept a minor league deal with someone, which seems unlikely.

He'd have to accept a spring training invite and prove his claim of being able to add some MPH. If he had his velocity at 86 he has some value.  I don't think that will happen but it's not as absurd as I think you are asserting. 

[totdprods]

He finished strong too, and he had one other good stretch in July. His fastball ticked up a bit near the end. In his final seven starts he threw 39.2 IP of 3.63 ERA, allowing 35 H, walking 14, and striking out 34. 

[Oz27]

20 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Pelfrey was absolute garbage in '13 and '14. He had a decent '15. Point is even without much of a track record and only middling success, a contending team with money to spend saw him as a guy to give two guaranteed years too. 

There are plenty of small-budget teams that would take a risk on someone like Weaver for a one-year deal to eat innings. Any team that doesn't have big payroll or immediate playoff aspirations and has holes in the pen and rotation would find value in having Jered eat up some innings while they sorted out their long-term options. They're not signing him to be good. They're just signing him to keep the seat warm and save some service time and mileage on young arms, maybe teach some youngsters a thing or two.

I don't know if I can even name any SP for the Padres. Christian Friedrich? I'm not even entirely combined Eppler won't keep an eye on him. If they use up the rest of their coin on 2B, RP, 4th OF, and C it wouldn't surprise me if they brought Weaver back cheap. 

The only thing I disagree with in this is the idea that teams would want Weaver to fill that role. It's beyond that point. Even in a terrible free agent year, there are still so many better starting pitchers than Weaver. Some of those guys will end up signing cheap deals. Basically, teams will be able to find cheap filler that is better than Jered - probably much better than him. I don't mean to shit on the guy because I really value everything he did for us, but he is just so far past the point of being a major league solution for any team.

[Troll Daddy]

2 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

The only thing I disagree with in this is the idea that teams would want Weaver to fill that role. It's beyond that point. Even in a terrible free agent year, there are still so many better starting pitchers than Weaver. Some of those guys will end up signing cheap deals. Basically, teams will be able to find cheap filler that is better than Jered - probably much better than him. I don't mean to shit on the guy because I really value everything he did for us, but he is just so far past the point of being a major league solution for any team.

You need to chill out ... everyone here knows Weaver. You're preaching to the choir and it's getting old.

[Oz27]

4 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

You need to chill out ... everyone here knows Weaver. You're preaching to the choir and it's getting old.

It's awfully hypocritical of you to say that anything anyone else does is "getting old".

[totdprods]

14 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

The only thing I disagree with in this is the idea that teams would want Weaver to fill that role. It's beyond that point. Even in a terrible free agent year, there are still so many better starting pitchers than Weaver. Some of those guys will end up signing cheap deals. Basically, teams will be able to find cheap filler that is better than Jered - probably much better than him. I don't mean to shit on the guy because I really value everything he did for us, but he is just so far past the point of being a major league solution for any team.

It gets brought up every Weaver thread, that cheap filler SP are better. Who exactly is this cheap filler SP? The only cheap SPs that exist are either legit prospects which cost something to acquire or haven't made it to arbitration, AAA vets like Chris Jones, Kyle Kendrick, Yunesky Maya, none of whom were able to crack our rotation last year, or waiver claim cast-offs like Daniel Wright and Brett Oberholtzer.

[disarcina]

I agree with totdprods -- perhaps Pelfry isn't a like kind example but there are others out there --look at guys who have absolutely FAILED for the Halos -- Fernando Rodney, Scott Kazmir and the Dodgers set up guy this year (the guy that finally came back to his 2-14 Halos form in the playoff series vs. the Cubs) -- all were pretty much DONE and even took time away from either MLB or baseball overall and came back........heck Kazmir was inked to a pretty decent contract by the Dodgers and he was absolutely DONE with the Halos -- who gave him every chance in every role to perform and he just was terrible -- he did bounce back with the A's and another team before landing with the Dodgers -- Fernando Rodney couldn't get anyone out at the end of his Halos stint and then he went on to become a key closer for who ? Detroit? Rodney has been on so many teams before and after the Halos, it's hard to keep track.........

but Jered Weaver as a seasoned MLB pitcher who can eat innings -- who actually had some good quality starts in the second half of the season last year down what was 'the stretch' for the 'out of it, already' Halos -- he's going to get some interest.......I think he needs to pick a pitcher's park and he might do well to concentrate on an NL team where the pitcher bats so for most daily line ups (a few exceptions, Bumgarner etc.) you have that OUT spot at the bottom of the line up........San Diego, Los Angeles are teams that come to mind.....perhaps Milwaukee --- St. Louis once revived Jeff Weaver's career who was DONE only to be revived by the LaRussa/ Duncan combo to the point Jeff Weaver ended up winning post-season playoff and World Series games for the World Champion Cardinals......maybe Matheny can do the same thing........

[Oz27]

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

It gets brought up every Weaver thread, that cheap filler SP are better. Who exactly is this cheap filler SP? The only cheap SPs that exist are either legit prospects which cost something to acquire or haven't made it to arbitration, AAA vets like Chris Jones, Kyle Kendrick, Yunesky Maya, none of whom were able to crack our rotation last year, or waiver claim cast-offs like Daniel Wright and Brett Oberholtzer. 

Using last year's free agent period as a guide, quite a lot of guys signed what I would call "cheap filler" deals. Some were good (Ryan Vogelsong, Rich Hill, Bud Norris - at least in Atlanta - Colby Lewis, Doug Fister ... plus Trevor Cahill in a relief role too). Some of it was terrible (see Alfredo Simon and others). But cheap starting rotation filler that can perform somewhere around replacement level is far from impossible to find in the offseason.

[totdprods]

And I don't disagree there are better SPs, but it comes down to the price tag as well. I'm going to use the Angels as an example, not because I'm pushing for them to resign Weaver but because I'm most aware of their needs and money.

They have several needs this offseason, one of which, SP, is very thin. Guys like Nova and Hellickson are going to eat up most of their spending money, and pitch closer to #4-5's over the duration of that contract. One of them alone probably takes up 50-75% of what we're able to spend, assuming they land in the $14-$18m/year range, and I think that's pretty likely. At that point, you still need to address 2B, the pen (probably two arms), and a 4th OF at the minimum. Apparently they're seeking a catcher too. And you've got potentially as little as 25% of your budget to fill all of that. 

I look at this FA class and I see many options for 4th OF, a good number of relievers, several good, cheapish vet catchers, and a couple intriguing 2B types  in Walker and Valbuena. I think I'd rather throw 75%+ of my spending money on those assets that are deep in the FA class than the handful of avail SPs, and go cheap on the vet SP.

We're a year away from getting two SPs back, we're a year away from a very strong SP FA class, and we have a year ahead to experiment with these lotto-tickets that Eppler has assembled in Meyer, Banuelos, and Campos.

 

 

[totdprods]

16 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

Using last year's free agent period as a guide, quite a lot of guys signed what I would call "cheap filler" deals. Some were good (Ryan Vogelsong, Rich Hill, Bud Norris - at least in Atlanta - Colby Lewis, Doug Fister ... plus Trevor Cahill in a relief role too). Some of it was terrible (see Alfredo Simon and others). But cheap starting rotation filler that can perform somewhere around replacement level is far from impossible to find in the offseason.

That's last season. Who out there is cheap filler SP that you think a team like the Padres would rather sign over Weaver for say 1/$8? Or the Angels, if they blew their wad on relievers, 2B, and the bench?

If this thread was 'Weaver or  O'Sullivan/Turner/Richard/Harrell/Milone/Morton*' who would you sign?

Slightly rhetorical. Point is that dependable - even dependably mediocre - starting pitching isn't really as available, cheap, or durable as many here think. Most of those guys suck as bad as Weaver did, if not more, and have no track record to hope for discovering a revival. Guys like Daniel Wright are the only young SPs that are available cheaply, and I don't think any of us want to see him get 20-25 starts for the Angels unless we were aiming to finish last.

*I would actually have interest in Morton.

 

[Troll Daddy]

The problem with stat nerds ... is they believe every stat to be gospel. They fail to understand the human element and the daily grind of sports. We all witnessed Weaver's bad starts and his good starts. We all know my ten old son probably has more velocity on his fastball than Weaver. We also know that Weaver is a mad badass competitor on the mound. What we all don't know is what he's going to bring to the table next season ... is he done, maybe. I'm not advocating bring him back but it wouldn't shock me to see him put together a much better season in 2017.

RESPECT

[totdprods]

When it comes to Weaver and stats, I know how terrible they come across, but he has always outperformed his stats, even when he was dominant. Everything then said he should not be that good. 

I guess you could argue that it's finally caught up with him, but I have read a few articles and analyses that actually point out that Weaver should be even worse than he is currently. 

The only correlation I see there is that Jered Weaver is still outpitching projections - they didn't 'catch up to him' but merely he just regressed, and in a big way, but he's still doing what he's always done - outperforming what he should be doing. There's something unquantifiable with what he does. I won't deny that he's terrible, but I have a hard time believing he's as bad as some of the stats say. And overall, I feel like I lean more towards the advanced stats side of thinking, but I also recognize that sometimes something breaks that mold. I think that's Jered Weaver.