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Angels acquire Cameron Maybin for Alcantara


totdprods

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7 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Didn't make it all the way through this thread but wanted to add this...

A scout who has covered the Angels system for several years told me that Alcantara was, in his opinion, the best prospect in the system. Said he looked like a big league 7th or 8th inning guy. 

This needs a huge caveat though: this scout had not seen the short season teams or the 2016 draftees, so not Jones or Thaiss. But he did like him better than Ward. 

Also, this scout really hates the Angels farm system, so even if he did think  Alcantara is the best, that still doesn't mean he thinks he's good. If a guy might be a 7th inning guy, how valuable is that? He could just be JC Ramirez. 

I am not sure how good Maybin will be, but if he plays great defense, as he should, and has a .340 OBP, that's a big upgrade from the awful defense and .275ish OBP (guessing, didn't look it up) they got out of LF last year. 

Theres also very little risk to this deal, and it's one year, so they don't spend any of their 2018 money, when the market will be better. 

So it sounds like the Angels got better so that's the most important thing.

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5 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

I'll mention this one more time. It's not just chicks who dig the long ball. Depending on how 2B is addressed and what skills that player provides, I think Marte is as likely as Escobar to get traded.

I'd love to keep Marte but I'd consider moving him for the right piece. Rays would be a fit. They need catcher really badly, and 1B.

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38 minutes ago, totdprods said:

He may still be obtainable. Marlins need arms most, but I could see us dangling a catcher in a three-team deal involving him. 

I'm happy with what we got for Santiago.

I recall us being in on Brett Lawrie last offseason, and the Sox may be interested in shopping or non-tendering him as well.

I can't get behind a Lawrie trade, I've seen enough of him from his Toronto days and he just can't stay healthy.

However IF (and that's a HUGE if because it makes too much sense) we could flip a catcher or something in a 3 way trade for Dietrich that'd be huge. I'd then keep Escobar for 3rd and flip Calhoun for pitching and go big on Cespedes or if they're going to go the cheaper right someone like Reddick who will most likely over value himself and be left without a contract later on. 

I just think we could really use the pop Cespedes would bring and we'd have a nice mix of OBP guys with Maybin, Escobar and Dietrich. 

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32 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

I can't get behind a Lawrie trade, I've seen enough of him from his Toronto days and he just can't stay healthy.

However IF (and that's a HUGE if because it makes too much sense) we could flip a catcher or something in a 3 way trade for Dietrich that'd be huge. I'd then keep Escobar for 3rd and flip Calhoun for pitching and go big on Cespedes or if they're going to go the cheaper right someone like Reddick who will most likely over value himself and be left without a contract later on. 

I just think we could really use the pop Cespedes would bring and we'd have a nice mix of OBP guys with Maybin, Escobar and Dietrich. 

Lawrie in a trade might not cost much, but I'd be more interested in him if he gets non-tendered though. Not the best option, but not the worst. He's intriguing to me because it gives us another option at 3rd, depending on how the Escobar/Marte situations play out. Dietrich similarly could play 3B, 2B, or drop in at LF even if needed. 

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4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Lawrie in a trade might not cost much, but I'd be more interested in him if he gets non-tendered though. Not the best option, but not the worst. He's intriguing to me because it gives us another option at 3rd, depending on how the Escobar/Marte situations play out. Dietrich similarly could play 3B, 2B, or drop in at LF even if needed. 

Just referencing that thread made by Dave Saltzer he mentioned Eppler was talking about finding a 25 home run type guy...

 

Outside of Turner and Cespedes who could he be talking about? Both have very solid OBP's as well. There's Brandon Moss who I was hoping we'd sign last season but besides the long ball he doesn't bring much else 

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Maybin ’16: .315/.383/.418/.801 – 110 H, 14 2B, 4 HR, 43 RBI, 146 TB, 36 BB, 69 K (in 94 games)
Angels ’16: .204/.271/.313/.584 – 114 H, 28 2B, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 175 TB, 46 BB, 113 K
Angels ’15: .216/.275/.317/.592 – 120 H, 21 2B, 9 HR, 51 RBI, 176 TB, 38 BB, 113 K
Angels ’14: .234/.293/.336/.629 – 143 H, 22 2B, 12 HR, 66 RBI, 205 TB, 47 BB, 160 K
Maybin 3-yr: .275/.310/.376/.686 – 406 PA, 101 H, 15 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 39 RBI, 14 SB, 33 BB, 75 K
3-yr proj. to 162G: .275/.310/.376/.686 - 161 H, 24 2B, 6 3B, 8 HR, 62 RBI, 22 SB, 53 BB, 120 K

Last time we had reasonable LF production was 2013, a year Mike Trout played 45 games there.
’13: .275/.330/.392/.722 – 177 H, 32 2B, 11 HR, 71 RBI, 252 TB, 56 BB, 106 K

Draw up Maybin’s slash line any way you want – his 2016, his career line, his 3-yr average, his 3-yr average projected over 162 games, etc., and they all come out ahead of three year's of Angels LF production. 

Also noticed that his splits against lefties and righties in '16 were so close to identical, it offers up some hope that his 2016 line wasn't a total fluke. 
'16 vs RHP in 278 PAs: .323/.383/.418/.801
'16 vs LHP in 113 PAs: .296/.384/.418/.802

I will say that seeing how much time he's missed in the last three years, and how there's still threat of some below-average production there, it definitely makes sense that they'd look to add another player who could cover LF. You could look at really any one of Brandon Moss, Josh Reddick, Michael Saunders, Angel Pagan, Coco Crisp, Chris Coghlan, or Jon Jay and they'd be an excellent complimentary piece, and Maybin gives us enough of a floor that we can play the long game and see if one of them winds up empty-handed come January or February.

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Some of you guys are so negative.  Maybin is a significant upgrade, and a player that has had a decent bit of bad luck in his career.  In recent years we've seen guys like him really get their careers going at his age after early disappointment.  It's not beyond the realm of possibility.  He was highly regarded for good reason.  He brings a lot to the table.  The key will be staying healthy.  The Angels had zero luck with the teams health last year.   Even with Richards, it remains to be seen.  If this guy ends up having TJ after 2 or 3 starts in April it's an even worse situation then if he just had it !! Anyway, with some luck the Halos could be decent next year, I don't see why the division would be out of reach. 

 

 

Edited by UndertheHalo
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16 hours ago, oater said:

Can you explain why the AAV is $5.5MM?  I have read that team options are treated as one year contracts when exercised.  I am not sure how the $1MM buyout is handled where the trade occurs before the option is exercised, but I don't see how the AAV for the 2017 contract is less than $8MM.

Regardless, I think this is a great trade.  Good value for Alcantara who profiles very similarly to Jose Valdez who was acquired from (. . .drum roll . . .) the Tigers for cash!

So @oater I was reading the CBA further and if an option is a player option, mutual option, or has some clause in the contract that could potentially make it a player option through some type of performance parameter or criteria that option is considered a guaranteed year for the purposes of Average Annual Value calculations.

In the case of Maybin it is a team option so you are correct that it is $9MM towards AAV. However someone like Ricky Nolasco, who has a performance criteria that could make his option year a player option, actually has his 2018 year count towards his AAV total.

Thanks for bringing this up because I had made a couple of mistakes in my Primer financials table and this has allowed me to rectify it before publication! :D

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1 minute ago, Blarg said:

This is weird . I'm at the Arizona Fall league and Alcantara is pitching in an Angels uniform. He has just given up a triple and beaded the next batter.

I guess maybe whatever team the Tigers' fall league prospects are on has a full roster, and Detroit was fine having him remain on his current AFL team? They probably still have some control over his usage.

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