Angels acquire Cameron Maybin for Alcantara

[Oz27]

1 minute ago, ettin said:

2) He has a low Average Annual Value of $5.5MM which doesn't impact payroll nearly as much as his actual $9MM salary
 

This is an important point. Until something happens to make me think otherwise, I'll work on the assumption that the plan is to stay under the tax. Everything we've done in the past two or three years suggests that pretty strongly. Given we aren't that far below the tax threshold (assuming it is somewhat similar to last year), getting a decent player at a low AAV is pretty useful for us.

[disarcina]

like others here -- I like this,

Maybin has OBP, speed, some power, maybe 10-15 HRs and can play OF defense. Don't think he has a great arm, but not sure, he's in LF after all.

and this won't break the bank for us to get a LF'er.

 

[Docwaukee]

There is little indication that he's gonna be as good offensively as he was last season.   Would be terrific if he was, but league average offense would be fine.  

I have a feeling this is a defensive play of sorts.  Guys who switch from CF to a corner OF tend to do pretty well.  A few examples by defensive runs saved:

 

Melvin Upton

-8 CF 2014 (2015 was limited sample but he was +2 in CF)

+10 LF 2016.  

 

Mookie Betts - yes, he's younger, but I think it still applies

+9 CF 2015

+32 RF 2016

 

Curtis Granderson 

-7 CF 2012

-2 RF 2014

+15 RF 2015

+2 RF 2016

 

Adam Eaton 

-14 CF 2015

+22 RF 2016

 

Torii Hunter 

+2 CF 2010

+15 RF 2011

+14 RF 2012

 

Yoenis Cespedes 

-23 as a CF in 1400 innings

+34 as a LFer in 3900 innings

 

Athletic guys who can play CF and did so well at one point end up being pretty good to great defensive corner OFers.  

I would not be a fan of paying for a player at a premium defensive position who can still play that spot well and then converting them to a position of lesser defensive value.  But when that player has declined at their current position, it's potentially an undervalued move to convert that player and net positive defensive value.  

I haven't checked the SS to 2b or 3b conversion, but it might be similar.  You pay for a crappy or mediocre SS and get an excellent defensive 2bman.  Look for something like that as well.  

Interesting targets:  Erick Aybar.  Brad Miller (a 27yo, 2.5 WAR offensive player with negative defensive value.  I like that one) Danny Espinosa (meh)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[totdprods]

This may offer a little reassurance that his 2016 numbers weren't completely fluky.

His slash versus lefties (.296/.384/.418/.801 in 113 PAs) and righties (.323/.383/.418/.801 in 278 PAs) were virtually identical. 

[Jim]

4 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

LF Maybin

2B Walker

CF Trout

DH Pujols

RF Calhoun

3B Marte

1B Cron

SS Simmons

C Bandy/Perez

Improve the pen and sign a SP like Hill or Hellickson. Done! 

I like this lineup. 

One day removed from the WS and we've signed a good player. I really like the way this off season is starting.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

Interesting targets:  Erick Aybar.  Brad Miller (a 27yo, 2.5 WAR offensive player with negative defensive value.  I like that one) Danny Espinosa (meh)

Brought up Miller in a couple other threads. Tampa has a bit of a logjam in the MIF between Beckham, Miller, Franklin, and Forsythe, and they have needs at 1B, RP, and especially catcher, where they were the only team to have negative WAR from that position. 

Between our mix of relievers (especially with Tampa's track record of success with our Halo-developed relievers) and Perez, Bandy, Marte, Cron, or Choi, there should be enough components on both teams to have some realistic conversations. 

[Oz27]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Athletic guys who can play CF and did so well at one point end up being pretty good to great defensive corner OFers.  

I would not be a fan of paying for a player at a premium defensive position who can still play that spot well and then converting them to a position of lesser defensive value.  But when that player has declined at their current position, it's potentially an undervalued move to convert that player and net positive defensive value.  

I haven't checked the SS to 2b or 3b conversion, but it might be similar.  You pay for a crappy or mediocre SS and get an excellent defensive 2bman.  Look for something like that as well.  

Interesting targets:  Erick Aybar.  Brad Miller (a 27yo, 2.5 WAR offensive player with negative defensive value.  I like that one) Danny Espinosa (meh

 

I like this theory a lot. A quick look at the best defensive 2B seasons of all time shows a pretty high number of former shortstops and there are some good examples of what you're talking about. To pick out a few from the top 10 best 2B fielding seasons of all time...

In 2004 Craig Counsell was a pretty mediocre SS (4 DRS), then in 2005 he was worth 30 runs by DRS at SS and he followed that up with 20 in the next year. Bobby Grich was a good fielder at SS in 1972 but he was an outstanding 2B in 2003. Darwin Barney was worth 28 fielding runs in 2012 and he had been a pretty mediocre shortstop prior to that. Ben Zobrist was -8 runs in limited time at SS in 2008, then 16 runs from just 81 starts at 2B in 2009. In 1998, Pokey Reese was a 'meh' SS and 3B and in 1999 he was worth 27 fielding runs at 2B.

Anyway, you get the idea. Taking mediocre to crappy fielders at the most difficult positions (SS and CF) and moving them to less challenging positions often leads to very good results.

[totdprods]

Also, every interview I've read with quotes from Maybin show him to be a great character guy. Team-first, positive, excited, hungry. Bud Black held him in high regard and offered his approval to Eppler.

Very happy about this move.

[Angel Oracle]

Based on all of that, maybe Brad Miller is the best target?   His power developed in Tampa.

However, due to offense developing and having 3 years club control, it could take too much to acquire him.

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Based on all of that, maybe Brad Miller is the best target?   His power developed in Tampa.

However, due to offense developing and having 3 years club control, it could take too much to acquire him.

I bet the Rays would be quite interested in Perez or Bandy. Miller strikes out a lot though. That's one thing Eppler seems to really avoid.

[Oz27]

5 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Based on all of that, maybe Brad Miller is the best target?   His power developed in Tampa.

He's an interesting option. But we can't be the only ones looking at him though and thinking 'he can hit but he can't field at shortstop' and therefore viewing him as a good option at another position.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Oz27 said:

He's an interesting option. But we can't be the only ones looking at him though and thinking 'he can hit but he can't field at shortstop' and therefore viewing him as a good option at another position.

But we are one of the few teams that has two talented young catchers, with a possible third a couple years off. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

30 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Athletic guys who can play CF and did so well at one point end up being pretty good to great defensive corner OFers.  

I would not be a fan of paying for a player at a premium defensive position who can still play that spot well and then converting them to a position of lesser defensive value.  But when that player has declined at their current position, it's potentially an undervalued move to convert that player and net positive defensive value.  

I haven't checked the SS to 2b or 3b conversion, but it might be similar.  You pay for a crappy or mediocre SS and get an excellent defensive 2bman.  Look for something like that as well.  

Interesting targets:  Erick Aybar.  Brad Miller (a 27yo, 2.5 WAR offensive player with negative defensive value.  I like that one) Danny Espinosa (meh)

I'm hoping that this is their play for second base this offseason. I'm pulling for a defense and bullpen minded offseason.

[ukyah]

4 hours ago, Oz27 said:

Maybin had a .383 BABIP? How in the world is that even possible? His BABIP went up 67 points even though he hit fewer line drives and his hard contact rate was below his career norm. There is very likely to be some regression there because that isn't sustainable, although that isn't to say he will fall to the point of being bad. I don't hate this trade, it's an upgrade over what we had in LF in 2016 (who wouldn't be) - I think he projects as a below average, but acceptable and serviceable, regular. I liked Alcantara as a future reliever but clearly the FO didn't agree and I'm fine with that. Unless Maybin completely tanks, we should be able to trade him at the deadline for something of similar value (possibly even more) if the team sucks again.

This is an upgrade, but clearly we need a lot more if we are going to seriously contend. Given the weak free agent market and our limit trade chips, that won't be easy to do.

 

agreed. even if maybin regresses, if he can keep his obp between 325-350, then he's a serious upgrade over what we've played. 325 isn't a mind blowing number.

[Blarg]

Adam has to be stoked, we finally got a black guy on the team.

[Docwaukee]

21 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

He's an interesting option. But we can't be the only ones looking at him though and thinking 'he can hit but he can't field at shortstop' and therefore viewing him as a good option at another position.

I think Miller put himself on the radar offensively and he'd likely cost quite a bit in trade.  Nice move by the rays.  

[Oz27]

16 minutes ago, totdprods said:

But we are one of the few teams that has two talented young catchers, with a possible third a couple years off. 

That's true. I'm not very high on Carlos Perez's value at the moment though. He didn't hit at all last year and he's only an average pitch framer. I'm not sure he projects as more than a backup anymore.

[Troll Daddy]

There is always the possibility that Maybin progresses as a player ... he's still in his prime. 

I think all the regress talk is more of a self defense mechanism Angels fans have in their DNA.

[ScottT]

I had no idea Maybin was that good offensively this season. ... or so bad defensively.   

Should be an improvement, but seems like we've been saying that for a while when it comes to LF.

[Tank]

Proven major leaguer with a decent track record for an unproven minor leaguer. I like it.

[Second Base]

I doubt Aybar returns to play 2B. Other teams still view him as a shortstop and he could latch on with one of them.

I think we'll sign Stephen Drew. He's an upgrade offensively and can be solid defensively. Yeah, it's a guarantee he'll get hurt, but that just opens the door for Pennington and Cowart.

Eppler likes low cost alternatives, and Drew is a low cost alternative to Walker.

Also another little tidbit, it's a forgone conclusion that the Angels and Tigers agreed to this trade at the deadline, but the Tigers didn't pull the trigger because they were in contention and the Angels were fine with waiting because they weren't. So as soon as the offseason started, all it likely took was a phone call.

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

There is always the possibility that Maybin progresses as a player ... he's still in his prime. 

I think all the regress talk is more of a self defense mechanism Angels fans have in their DNA.

No the regression is based on his bapip which some feel is not sustainable.  At least I think that's what guys like @Oz27 are worried about.  It's a legitimate concern, but like Oz mentioned, he doesn't need to perform like last year to make this a good trade.  

[Docwaukee]

51 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

There is always the possibility that Maybin progresses as a player ... he's still in his prime. 

I think all the regress talk is more of a self defense mechanism Angels fans have in their DNA.

really? what about denial?  

 

 

[oater]

2 hours ago, Oz27 said:

2) He has a low Average Annual Value of $5.5MM which doesn't impact payroll nearly as much as his actual $9MM salary
 

Can you explain why the AAV is $5.5MM?  I have read that team options are treated as one year contracts when exercised.  I am not sure how the $1MM buyout is handled where the trade occurs before the option is exercised, but I don't see how the AAV for the 2017 contract is less than $8MM.

Regardless, I think this is a great trade.  Good value for Alcantara who profiles very similarly to Jose Valdez who was acquired from (. . .drum roll . . .) the Tigers for cash!

[Troll Daddy]

23 minutes ago, Stradling said:

No the regression is based on his bapip which some feel is not sustainable.  At least I think that's what guys like @Oz27 are worried about.  It's a legitimate concern, but like Oz mentioned, he doesn't need to perform like last year to make this a good trade.  

I appreciate your response but I know what he said ... my opinion is based on common sense.