[Fangraphs] The actual difference between Trout and Betts

[Troll Daddy]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

so you think Pujols is one of the most valuable players in baseball.  Let me ask you this, if the Halos ended up in the playoffs this year, do you think Pujols is a stronger MVP candidate than Trout?  

Wow, Get over yourself ... did I say that?

[Oz27]

22 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

That is surprising to me that his pitches in the strike zone were relatively constant because of the way the walk rate changed so dramatically so quickly. It wasn't gradual. It seems odd to me that a player's skill could change so quickly. I am wondering if the numbers aren't somehow misleading based on the situations, so he was seeing more strikes in low leverage spots and less strikes in high leverage spots and it evened out.

Here is the heatmap of pitches Trout saw, from the start of the 2013 season until July 26 - http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&ss=2013-04-01&se=2013-07-25&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=0&grid=5&view=bat&pitch=&season=all

And here it is for after July 26, through the end of the 2013 season - http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&ss=2013-07-26&se=2013-09-29&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=0&grid=5&view=bat&pitch=&season=all

Maybe I am missing something but they look pretty similar to me, at least as far as I can tell there is no really noticeable "pitchers started doing more of this" going on.

These two graphs, however, are very telling.

This is the heatmap of pitches Trout swung at, from the start of the 2013 season until July 26 - http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&ss=2013-04-01&se=2013-07-25&type=2&hand=all&count=all&blur=0&grid=5&view=bat&pitch=&season=all

And the heatmap for after that date, through the end of the season - http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&ss=2013-07-26&se=2013-09-29&type=2&hand=all&count=all&blur=0&grid=5&view=bat&pitch=&season=all

To sum up, he stopped swinging at pitches outside the zone both up and outside. The differences are really quite substantial. Maybe part of that was him developing a better understanding of the pitches he is good at hitting (he has always been good low and inside but has done nowhere near as well on pitches high) and laying off those pitches. But the change, at least as far as I can tell, is that he really improved his plate discipline much more than pitchers started doing anything different.

As for the rest of your post, clearly I agree that some external factors influence walking. Obviously if pitchers are throwing you strikes at a very high rate, you are going to walk less. So pitchers and umpires do have an influence. But the correlation between zone percentage and walk rate is nowhere near as high as you might expect. Some hitters are just really really good at working walks. Hitters have much more control over walking than they do RBIs, which is obviously so dependent on what the hitters in front of you are doing (see 2016 Pujols).

[Jeff Fletcher]

Obviously it's a mix of skill and external factors when you walk. And obviously it's more of the former than the latter. 

I just can't believe that in one day Trout became twice as disciplined. 

2 walks in 10 games leading up to that day. 18 walks in the next 9 games. 

As for his percentage of pitches in and out of the zone, there's no recognition in there about how far outside the pitches were. Maybe he stopped swinging because pitchers who were pitching around him tend to miss by 6 inches while those going after him miss by 1-2. 

The fact is he walked twice as much when Pujols was gone. 

[Troll Daddy]

I walk to work everyday ... does that count 

[Stradling]

How many average to below average baseball players have 75+ RBI?  I'm assuming a helluva lot more than average to below average players that have 75+ walks.  

[Troll Daddy]

The only skill in walking is a 'good eye' hell even Doc could walk ... but he's got NO shot at getting a hit.

[tdawg87]

"Everyone look what I'm doing!!!! Pay attention to meeeee!"

[Oz27]

51 minutes ago, Stradling said:

How many average to below average baseball players have 75+ RBI?  I'm assuming a helluva lot more than average to below average players that have 75+ walks.  

This year, 20 players had a wins above average mark of 0 or worse and 75 or more RBI. Five below average players had more than 100 RBI. There were also three below replacement players who had more than 75 RBI, led by Matt Kemp (108).

Only four below average players had more than 75 walks.

[Oz27]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Obviously it's a mix of skill and external factors when you walk. And obviously it's more of the former than the latter. 

I just can't believe that in one day Trout became twice as disciplined. 

2 walks in 10 games leading up to that day. 18 walks in the next 9 games. 

As for his percentage of pitches in and out of the zone, there's no recognition in there about how far outside the pitches were. Maybe he stopped swinging because pitchers who were pitching around him tend to miss by 6 inches while those going after him miss by 1-2. 

The fact is he walked twice as much when Pujols was gone. 

Well yeah, that is a fact and maybe you can explain some of the increase in walks that way. But he also started walking much more, even though he wasn't getting more pitches outside the zone, and a huge part of that is because he was swinging at fewer balls. That has to be reflective of a skill. I have to believe it was him, much more than anything else.

[Troll Daddy]

Harper, Goldschmidt, Donaldson, and Votto share the same skill.  There must be a correlation there, somewhere.

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Obviously it's a mix of skill and external factors when you walk. And obviously it's more of the former than the latter. 

I just can't believe that in one day Trout became twice as disciplined. 

2 walks in 10 games leading up to that day. 18 walks in the next 9 games. 

As for his percentage of pitches in and out of the zone, there's no recognition in there about how far outside the pitches were. Maybe he stopped swinging because pitchers who were pitching around him tend to miss by 6 inches while those going after him miss by 1-2. 

The fact is he walked twice as much when Pujols was gone. 

It seems way too coincidental that Trout just stopped swinging at balls out of the zone when Pujols went down.  Like literally the day after.  

I have been looking at the numbers backward and forward.  A couple of differences was that batted third post Pujols.  His k rate actually went up post Pujols.  His avg and slg% were pretty much the same.  ( a bit up actually).  His LD% went up a bit.  His pull rate down from 35% to 27%.  He saw 61% fastballs pre, and 60% post.  

His oswing% went from 27% to 19%.  His swing rate from 40% to 34%.  his outside the zone contact rate from 68% to 74%.  His zone contact rate went down from 93% to 83%.  Another thing that happened was that his babip went from .343 to .403.  

Nothing of the above truly explains how he did what he did.  He literally just changed his approach. 

[Troll Daddy]

I forgot to bring my calculator to this thread. 

[Oz27]

3 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

"Everyone look what I'm doing!!!! Pay attention to meeeee!"

 

[Oz27]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

It seems way too coincidental that Trout just stopped swinging at balls out of the zone when Pujols went down.  Like literally the day after.  

I have been looking at the numbers backward and forward.  A couple of differences was that batted third post Pujols.  His k rate actually went up post Pujols.  His avg and slg% were pretty much the same.  ( a bit up actually).  His LD% went up a bit.  His pull rate down from 35% to 27%.  He saw 61% fastballs pre, and 60% post.  

His oswing% went from 27% to 19%.  His swing rate from 40% to 34%.  his outside the zone contact rate from 68% to 74%.  His zone contact rate went down from 93% to 83%.  Another thing that happened was that his babip went from .343 to .403.  

Nothing of the above truly explains how he did what he did.  He literally just changed his approach. 

That's the thing. I was trying to explain it before ... but it doesn't actually explain what he did, it just notes differences that are too big to ignore. Another thing I noticed is his ground ball rate went significantly lower (from 44 per cent to 35 per cent) and his fly ball rate went up by six per cent. That might be because he was swinging at less bad balls though and therefore was more likely to make significant contact when he did.

Maybe it is just an arbitrary end point and the change in fortune was entirely coincidental (see Oakland's 2014 struggles post Cespedes as an example of that). Maybe he felt the need to change his approach because Pujols went down. But even if that is what happened, that shouldn't take credit away from what he did. My point in all of this was that he was responsible for the good things that happened beyond that date. There isn't any evidence I can find to suggest any change was due to what pitchers were doing to him, it seems to be that he just started doing some things better.

[Jeff Fletcher]

I still think my theory is the simplest and most logical. 

Without the threat of Pujols behind Trout, pitchers challenged him much less and he walked much more. Period. 

Seriously, are we arguing that pitchers don't pitch around hitters? That they try equally to go after every single hitter and so all walks are entirely the hitter's doing?

I will just ask him in the spring. 

[Blarg]

13 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

I walk to work everyday ... does that count 

Walking from the bedroom to the den does not count. 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I still think my theory is the simplest and most logical. 

Without the threat of Pujols behind Trout, pitchers challenged him much less and he walked much more. Period. 

Seriously, are we arguing that pitchers don't pitch around hitters? That they try equally to go after every single hitter and so all walks are entirely the hitter's doing?

I will just ask him in the spring. 

I don't think anyone is arguing that.  At one end of the scale is skill and on the other end is circumstance.  Every stat fits on the line somewhere.  Walks are more toward skill.  Getting an RBI more toward circumstance.  

You still have to not swing at crap Jeff.  They still threw Trout strikes among the crap.  He still has a split second to make the decision.  skill.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

I don't think anyone is arguing that.  At one end of the scale is skill and on the other end is circumstance.  Every stat fits on the line somewhere.  Walks are more toward skill.  Getting an RBI more toward circumstance.  

You still have to not swing at crap Jeff.  They still threw Trout strikes among the crap.  He still has a split second to make the decision.  skill.  

Well you still have to get a hit (usually) to get an RBI. 

I'm going to say RBIs are 59 percent skill and walks are 73 percent skill. 

Settled. 

[Blarg]

You would think a guy like Trout,  the skill levels would be exactly the same. No,  I'm not going to build an algorithm to prove this or farm Cameron posts. Simply stating the elite hitters are using the same skill sets to either draw a walk or work to favorable hitting counts to maximize their at bats. 

[tdawg87]

I think walks are 81.96662% skill.

[NrM]

What fucking year is it that we're debating if walks are valuable. 

Walks are extremely valuable even for slow motherfuckers like ortiz and votto. Trout is the best baserunner in baseball...

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

What fucking year is it that we're debating if walks are valuable. 

Walks are extremely valuable even for slow motherfuckers like ortiz and votto. Trout is the best baserunner in baseball...

No one is debating whether they are valuable. We are debating if they are totally individual or dependent on external factors. 

[Docwaukee]

On 10/8/2016 at 10:58 AM, Jeff Fletcher said:

Well you still have to get a hit (usually) to get an RBI. 

I'm going to say RBIs are 59 percent skill and walks are 73 percent skill. 

Settled. 

hitting is the skill.  17% 

[Troll Daddy]

Walks and HBP are the best alternatives to striking out. 

Trying to walk can be hazardous to you career. 

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

One more thought to this....

The basis of FIP is to use strikeouts, walks and homers because those are the things most under the pitcher's control, right?

So, then, how can we also give a hitter 100 percent credit for a walk?

It's a sliding scale, like everything in baseball. Yes, a hitter has to have the discipline to take pitches that aren't strikes, but he also has to get pitches that aren't strikes, which is indisputably out of his control.

Obviously, the strikes you see will be to some degree determined by who is hitting around you.