The 20/20 hindsight 2016 Angels

[Docwaukee]

Knowing how things have panned out (for the most part), what could we have done differently?  You can factor in whether you think any particular free agents would have signed with us or not.  

1. While I love Simmons, it probably would have made more sense to keep our prospects. 

2. Daniel Murphy at 3/37.5 (the loss of our 1st rounder would have made me wary about this)

3. Rich Hill at 1/6

4. Asdrubal Cabrera at 2/18.5

5. Freese at 1/3

6. JA Happ at 3/36 (maybe - he's 33 and I am not sure if he'll ever have another season like this one)

7. Trade Aybar and his salary for whatever you can get in prospects

8. Trade Carlos Perez to Seattle for Trumbo

9. Trade Street and his salary for prospects.  (would have been the perfect time considering what closers were bringing on the trade market).  

10. Trade Santiago and his salary for prospects

11. Shawn Kelly 3/15

12. Prospects for Aroldis Chapman

 

Calhoun RF

Trout CF

Pujols 1b/DH

Murphy 2b

Trumbo LF

Cron 1b/DH

Freese 3b

Bandy/Soto C

Cabrera SS

 

SP Richards, Heaney, Happ, Hill, Shoe with depth of weaver, trop, skaggs, 

RP Chapman, Kelly, Bedrosian, Smith, Salas, Alvarez and a bunch of depth plus maybe you get a couple of solid guys in the Santiago, Aybar and Street trades.  

you add a little payroll with murphy, happ, hill, kelly, and freese offset by Aybar, Street and Santiago trades.  probably +15-20mil.  

My assumption is that we are still unlikely to be in the mix because of the SP injuries and we would have traded Hill, Chapman, Trumbo, Freese, Smith at the deadline and just loaded up on prospects.  

 

 

 

 

[Homebrewer]

Dexter Fowler would look pretty good in the OF and he could have been signed late and for short term..2 years with options?

[Homebrewer]

Simmons would be much more expensive now if he had hit in Atlanta like he's hitting here this year.

[Angelsjunky]

Not trade Jim Edmonds for Jim Bottenfeld and Adam Kennedy.

Seriously though, the problem with this game is that we can't assume that a player would have performed the same way in a different context. Secondly, it goes without saying--but probably should be said again--that the biggest problem for the Angels this year has been injuries to pitchers. Who knows how the season would have gone if Richards and Heaney hadn't gone out in April. I personally think that Heaney was going to be a bit disappointing and more of a #4, maybe a #3 in his prime, and that the Angels would have still been a .500 team, but if they're .500 in July maybe they trade to shore up holes and we're on the edge of contention right now.

And of course hindsight also let's us look at Heyward, Upton, etc, and see what busts they've been.

But the main reason I have a hard time playing this game is that the problems with the 2016 Angels are symptomatic of things that have been happening for years. The things I'd change in hindsight are the terrible acquisitions, poor drafting and international scouting that occurred under both Reagins and Dipoto. Some of those things were forgiveable at the time (e.g. who knew Beltre would continue at his level of excellent like he has, and cement his place in the Hall of Fame; who knew Pujols would decline like he did), but many were not (Wells, Hamilton, Baldoquin...wtf?).

Oh yeah, I would have done whatever I could to get Moncada. I thought that then and I still think so.

But my apologies, Doc, if I distract from your thread.

[wopphil]

It is pretty remarkable to look back and think about what could have been. The team could have signed cheap players like Rich Hill, Murphy, Happ and Desmond, with incredible results.

Just goes to show that in free agency, smart spending is better than big spending.

[Homebrewer]

Just because a player produces well in one situation, doesn't necessarily mean he would have done the same with another club. There is more to success on the field than just numbers. Can't assume a player would do just as well or just as poorly here, as they did somewhere else.

[tomsred]

I'm not as high on Newcomb and Ellis as many are here.  During the Dipoto years we drafted poorly.  There was nothing we should have done that included giving up high draft choices this year.  At some point you have to draw a line in the sand, and build through the draft, not around it.  Just as importantly we have to improve the draft process and selection.  Hill and Happ are having great years, but I don't think it will be sustainable over the long run. The team never seems to be interested in signing past players, like Aybar or Trumbo, maybe they should be though.  Street's was a great closer, and maybe he still has a little left in his tank, but we often talk about the starters going down when the back end of the pen imploded the same way with the help of some trades (Street - knee injury, Smith - traded), Bedrosian - blood clot injury, Rasmus - 2 abdominal surgeries).  Freeze wasn't a good alternative because we dearly needed a lead off guy, and the best available one that was affordable was Escobar who played 3B.

[Oz27]

Good post, Doc. Something like that is probably the ultimate hindsight path. Trumbo would have been a good option given how cheaply he was acquired, even though he only would have been a 30 HR, 1-1.5 WAR here. Rich Hill definitely had merit at the time and if we are trying to compete next year has obvious merit for this offseason. The others were a bit less predictable, such as Daniel Murphy.

But given I believe this wasn't a playoff team at full health, maybe the prime hindsight thing to do was sell. By moving Street, Smith, Richards, Santiago and maybe Calhoun - as well as holding onto Newcomb and Ellis - we could have restocked the farm system pretty well and hopefully opened up a window of contention in te final 2-3 years of the Trout contract.

[gotbeer]

In the offseason, I was big on Fowler, and the Asian guys.  Maeda, Oh and Hwang. 

Maeda, 8 years/$25 million (that's total, not per year) with tons of incentives, 3.24 ERA, 1.098 WHIP

Oh 1 year/$2.5 million with a $2.75 million club option.  performance bonuses to total $11 million.  1.87 ERA, 0.899 WHIP

Hwang  received no bids.  So he went back to Korea, and only posted a slash of .336/.398/.562/.960

 

[Homebrewer]

Oh and Hwang, if nothing else, would have brought a lot of entertainment value to this forum.

[Ohtaniland]

Interesting OP but I think it's time to stop thinking about what could've been and start thinking about what will be. That starts during the winter meetings and rolls through spring. I'm sure Eppler is working on a sustainable plan. Something that won't include the Heywards or the Uptons. 

[totdprods]

I remember I really wanted to try and pull Jackie Bradley from the Sox, and was willing to offer Richards for a package of prospects that included JBJ. Was also willing to take on malcontent Hanley Ramirez and his contract in a potential deal. Unfortunately, I think I was including Cron in there too.

Richards + Cron for JBJ, HanRam, and ideally someone like Bogearts, Betts, or Moncada, but more realistically it would have been someone like Benintendi, Devers, and maybe if lucky someone like Trey Ball thrown in, maybe for an Angels prospect.

I also was pretty high on signing Heyward, to the point where I thought it was a necessity, with Cespedes my distant second. I also lobbied for them signing one of a Chen or Leake to offset dealing Heaney or Richards. I thought signing one big LF and one big SP was within realm of reason. Obviously, I was wrong.

Also had pitched trying to trade Calhoun to the Indians for someone like Salazar, Carrasco, or Bauer, or to the Mets for someone like Matz or Wheeler. In hindsight, either of the Mets deals would have hurt, but the Indians may have worked out, especially if JBJ and Heyward/Cespedes dropped into the corner outfield spots.

This was all post-Simmons too. 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Not trade Jim Edmonds for Jim Bottenfeld and Adam Kennedy.

Seriously though, the problem with this game is that we can't assume that a player would have performed the same way in a different context. Secondly, it goes without saying--but probably should be said again--that the biggest problem for the Angels this year has been injuries to pitchers. Who knows how the season would have gone if Richards and Heaney hadn't gone out in April. I personally think that Heaney was going to be a bit disappointing and more of a #4, maybe a #3 in his prime, and that the Angels would have still been a .500 team, but if they're .500 in July maybe they trade to shore up holes and we're on the edge of contention right now.

And of course hindsight also let's us look at Heyward, Upton, etc, and see what busts they've been.

But the main reason I have a hard time playing this game is that the problems with the 2016 Angels are symptomatic of things that have been happening for years. The things I'd change in hindsight are the terrible acquisitions, poor drafting and international scouting that occurred under both Reagins and Dipoto. Some of those things were forgiveable at the time (e.g. who knew Beltre would continue at his level of excellent like he has, and cement his place in the Hall of Fame; who knew Pujols would decline like he did), but many were not (Wells, Hamilton, Baldoquin...wtf?).

Oh yeah, I would have done whatever I could to get Moncada. I thought that then and I still think so.

But my apologies, Doc, if I distract from your thread.

Why?  Assume whatever you want.  I did.  The whole premise is bullshit anyway.  I am just throwing it out there for discussion sake.  Mostly it's interesting to take a look at the best moves from around the league and how it is possible to catch lightning sometimes.  

I also assumed the injuries.  

[Angelsjunky]

Fair enough, Doc. In that sense, I think you've basically got it right--if we look at things the Angels actually could have done and stayed within the parameters of money and such.

[Troll Daddy]

Enough of the 'what if' crap ... Doc lost me at Simmons.

 

lutz

[Oz27]

So glad the board's resident troll chipped in with that tremendous insight. Where would we be without it?

[Angelsfirst]

I agree that you can't necessarily assume how a player would perform in these hypothetical situations. Having said that, the reason I'm a fan of a thread like this is solely to remind people who were ranting and raving about signing players like Heyward/Cespedes just how much of a potential bullet we dodged.

Admittedly, though I had my trepidation, I wasn't totally against Cespedes on a shorter term deal but I was totally against Heyward and the absurd amount of years he was asking for. 

Also, most of those "should have" transactions that Doc mentioned were just savvy, relatively cheap under the radar moves that could have made a big difference this year and for the next couple.

I think it also demonstrates the ongoing trend that most of these big free agent, multi year contracts don't come close to proving their worth. Like I said though, hindsight. 

[ScottT]

I wish I would have picked the correct power ball numbers, got the cash value and put it all on Leicester City last season.

[Ohtaniland]

30 minutes ago, Angelsfirst said:

I agree that you can't necessarily assume how a player would perform in these hypothetical situations. Having said that, the reason I'm a fan of a thread like this is solely to remind people who were ranting and raving about signing players like Heyward/Cespedes just how much of a potential bullet we dodged.

Admittedly, though I had my trepidation, I wasn't totally against Cespedes on a shorter term deal but I was totally against Heyward and the absurd amount of years he was asking for. 

Also, most of those "should have" transactions that Doc mentioned were just savvy, relatively cheap under the radar moves that could have made a big difference this year and for the next couple.

I think it also demonstrates the ongoing trend that most of these big free agent, multi year contracts don't come close to proving their worth. Like I said though, hindsight. 

Many moves were made under desperation and duress in Dipoto's final half season. Then the GM by committee took over before Eppler. I still say it's a 3-5 plan inherently because of a bad farm system, budget restraints and horrendous injuries to the core pitching staff.

[Angelsfirst]

14 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

Many moves were made under desperation and duress in Dipoto's final half season. Then the GM by committee took over before Eppler. I still say it's a 3-5 plan inherently because of a bad farm system, budget restraints and horrendous injuries to the core pitching staff.

That's true. I'm not really blaming Dipoto or anybody. I'm just indulging in the hypothetical scenarios posed in this thread. Been that kind of season. I just hope it doesn't take longer than 3-5 years.

[stormngt]

If we are going on hindsight,  we should have signed 5 starting pitchers as FA.

Going farther back we should have rebuilt in 2010.

[Ohtaniland]

2 hours ago, stormngt said:

If we are going on hindsight,  we should have signed 5 starting pitchers as FA.

Going farther back we should have rebuilt in 2010.

We don't rebuild we just get tooled. Or something like that. 

[disarcina]

I liked the Simmons deal when we made it and I like it now -- although the only issue I have with it -- if that was going to be OUR major deal - I probably would have gone for rotation help. I still like having Simmons at SS and letting Aybar go.

Carlos Perez for Trumbo? Seriously? Don't think that was happening.

Daniel Murphy is probably the best bang for the buck F/A off-season signing - the Nats got a deal -- but not sure if Murphy would have signed with a West Coast team.

No qualms at all about letting Freese go -- yeah, he's done OK in Pittsburgh and now has a new two or three year deal there -- good for him. I thought he was weak on D, had some timely clutch hits at times but not enough, and was a really poor baserunner as well as being pretty SLOW -- a real GIDP threat every time up with less than two outs and a guy on first.

Hindsight?  Spend more money on rotation help and maybe that bat, LF guy - a position that has hurt us all season long.

Trade Santiago sooner? nah, don't think so -- quite frankly that's one move and timing that the front office timed perfectly -- both the acquisition/ signing and the trade right at deadline time this year -- and now we have Nolasco who I think can be a serviceable 4/5 rotation guy for next year -- let's sign Weaver to a one year incentive laden deal as another 4/5 guy. Then let's see how Shoemaker, Skaggs etc. do.

Look folks -- Texas was (somewhat quietly) wire to wire this year and enters the final two plus weeks of the season with the best record in the AL -- Does anyone think we're doing much in 2017?  We need to start building for 2018 and beyond.

 

 

[CaliAngel]

Should have gotten Murphy but who needs a 2nd baseman hitting .350...? *shrugs*

Definitely not us.

[Homebrewer]

I'm on record saying that Heyward will rake for the Cubs in the playoffs, some big game winners when they are really needed.. and suddenly be worth every penny he is making.

Panda style..