Beginning to think we m/b good next year

[ghoetke]

If we can get all of our starting pitching back healthy , not including CJ, and pick up another solid reliever, we have the makings of a contender with rest of the group we have, imo. What say you ??

[Angels#1Fan]

Our starters that had TJ surgery won't be back next year.

[Jason]

Left field? 2B? Bullpen?? This team will not be a contender, not even close to it.

[Docwaukee]

I was just thinking about the math in regards to this.  

Right now, we have accumulated about 21 WAR through 132 games.  putting us on pace for about 26 for the season.  which would give us about a 74-88 record by pythag.  The reason I am using this instead of our true record is to give us a more accurate idea of what we need if our on field luck is neutral next year. To have a shot at the wild card, we will need anywhere from 88-93 wins.  As there is a fair amount of parity in the league right now, let's call it 90.  That mean in all total we need about 42 WAR (a replacement level team is assumed 48 wins).  

so we need to make up about 16 WAR.  

The most obvious area to make up some ground is on the pitching side where we currently have 4 total WAR for our entire SP and RP staffs.  On pace for about 5 total. 

Richards is a huge factor.  If he is truly healthy, he can give us about 3.5 to 4.0 WAR.  Assuming he replaces our worst pitchers we are actually about +5 (a replacement player would give us +1.  that's how bad the back end of our rotation has been).  

Shoe has to be similar to this year and give us 4 wins.  

An average pen will give you 3 wins.  About +2 from where we currently sit.  So +7 so far.  

Offense/Defense is on pace for 20 wins.  Close to the top ten in baseball with clear room for improvement

Can we assume slight improvement at C?  I think we have to but I also think it's feasible.  On pace for 2.5 wins, I think we can get 3.5 with a full year of Bandy.  +1 (+8 total)

I don't see much change at 1b so we'll call it even

2b is at about a 0.3 pace for the season.  If we add someone just over 2 wins (not a stretch), we get +2 (+10)

ss - we need a full season of Simmons which gives an additional win +1 (+11)

3b - our pace is 2.5 wins.  I can't see us moving the needle here at all next year.

RF - pace of almost 4 wins.  Should stay the same

CF - Trout needs to be Trout.  

LF - on pace for about -1 win.  Atrocious but that means even an ok player of 2 WAR gets us +3.  (+14 total)

DH - likely no change here.  

I'll assume similar production from our bench

 

So that means with need to make up about another 2-3 wins at least through the starting pitching.  Since we are assuming stable production from Shoe and a healthy Richards replacing our worst production, the additional wins aren't hard to come by.  Especially considering what will be available.  

Skaggs has to make up at least one of those wins, but I am not sure where the rest is coming from.  We would have to assume that one of Meyer, Olberholtzer or Banuelos provide above replacement level production as a combo for the entire season for two rotation spots.  

 

So in summary, we need a 2 win 2bman, a 2 win LFer, probably a 2 win SP, a revamp of the pen enough to be league average, a healthy richards, a similar shoemaker, improvement from the C position, and everyone else to perform as they have this year. 

Meaning it's gonna take some combo of someone like Reddick, Prado, a rebound year from Buckholz, Kenley Jansen, an additional relieve on top of that, maybe another SP looking to rebound, and most importantly, a healthy Richards.  Oh, and nothing can go wrong.  Yeah, I am not feelin' it.  

 

 

[AngelArcher]

3 hours ago, calscuf said:

I'm beginning to think you MIGHT BE the laziest typer ever.

Now if he actually meant MAY BE, then there would be not doubt about it.

 

 

[Angel Oracle]

More re-tooling in 2017, THEN if Richards, Heaney, and Tropeano are good to pitch in 2018, MAYBE they can contend.

Deep down though, I see 2019 being the year to work towards.

By then, the aforementioned trio of starters can hopefully all pitch at least 190 innings, Shoe and Skaggs will still be here, and more pitching depth established.  

Bedrosian, Middleton, Alcantara, Meyer, D. Guerra, Valdez, and an improved Morin hopefully form a strong pen.   Pens are fickle though from year to year.

Cowart is established and with Simmons forms an impenetrable defense on the left side.

Cron actually learns to play 1B defense somewhat respectfully.

Still need to find a LF and 2B though.  Jaimai Jones may still be a year away then.   Sherman Johnson can get on base, but his BA in the PCL is a concern.

Maybe we also get lucky, and Pujols puts up an Ortiz type season at age 39 (park factor taken into consideration).  

Hey, I can dream?

[NJHalo]

I hate to use injuries as excuses, but I think it is really hard to get a true reading of this team.

[m0nkey]

Is this the same guy who wrote s/b for should be?

[totdprods]

LF really is the most glaring need. It's a joke. It needs to be addressed this offseason one way or another, regardless of the organization's goal of competing, retooling, or rebuilding. Our most legit OF prospect is really two years away at best.

It could be signing a big name like Reddick, Cespedes, or Desmond (my order of preference for the top dollar OFs) or it could be dramatically improved even by signing an older vet like Franklin Gutierrez, Jon Jay, Angel Pagan, or Rajai Davis. Those guys should all be around 1/8-2/20 at the absolute most.

I think we will be hard after Saunders. Even when he was in Seattle he was a solid hitter and defender, and his cold second half should be bringing his price back down to a more realistic level.

[totdprods]

I don't think Sherman is even really on the radar right now. He will be interesting to watch next year though at SLC though. When he moved up to Arkansas, he had a terrible season - very low BA, high OBP, low slugging. In his second season he destroyed the league. 

Now he's in SLC and putting up almost a line identical to what he did the first time in AA - very low BA, high OBP, low slugging. If there's a pattern there, it shows he's got the eye to play at that particular level, but it takes him some time to adjust.

If he follows that trend next year in SLC I think he will start getting more attention.

[zenmaster]

im beg 2 thnk we m/b av nxt yr

[Glen]

2 hours ago, m0nkey said:

Is this the same guy who wrote s/b for should be?

IDK

[Troll Daddy]

Only four teams in our way. Doesn't sound too difficult . The offense is a easy solution. Starting pitching is our only real obstacle. 

[Angel Oracle]

Rajai Davis might be an okay fit for LF with his speed and meh OBP skills for the top of the order (then being able to deal Escobar).   He is 36 in 2017.   It would have to be at most a 2 year deal.  

John Jay is significantly younger, and outside of 2015 has had a decent/solid OBP, but isn't much of a base stealer anymore.   He has also missed half of each of the past two seasons.

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Rajai Davis might be an okay fit for LF with his speed and meh OBP skills for the top of the order (then being able to deal Escobar).   He is 36 in 2017.   It would have to be at most a 2 year deal.  

John Jay is significantly younger, and outside of 2015 has had a decent/solid OBP, but isn't much of a base stealer anymore.   He has also missed half of each of the past two seasons.

Rajai I see being more of a #7-9 guy, and yes, I wouldn't go past two years. I'd hope he would be able to put up at least a .700 OPS, still a vast improvement over what we've had the last two years, and if he starts to drop off in the second year he'd still be a good 4th OF/PR/defensive replacement guy. He'd also come cheap enough that he could be benched or cut easily enough, and he'd likely retain some deadline value to a contending team needing some speed. 

I think Jon Jay fits the bill much better. He'd slot into the bottom of the line-up right now, but could also drop in at the #2 spot if they wanted to move Calhoun back into the middle of the lineup, though I am starting to think he's really best suited at #2 long-term. I see a lot of his value in being a capable interim lead-off hitter once Escobar is dealt. He doesn't bring the base-stealing aspect, but offensively he's almost a lefty version of Simmons - a lot of contact, not many walks, not many strikeouts. I think that offensive profile has fit our offense really well this season. Would bring another lefty hitter into the fold, and he has solid defense. His recent DL stint was result of a HBP so I don't think he can really be labeled as injury-prone either. Really, he's about what I had hoped Rafael Ortega could be.

All of these guys should be pretty cheap without much commitment, and even with lowered expectations and decline should exceed our LF production the last two seasons.  

[Blarg]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I was just thinking about the math in regards to this.  

Right now, we have accumulated about 21 WAR through 132 games.  putting us on pace for about 26 for the season.  which would give us about a 74-88 record by pythag.  The reason I am using this instead of our true record is to give us a more accurate idea of what we need if our on field luck is neutral next year. To have a shot at the wild card, we will need anywhere from 88-93 wins.  As there is a fair amount of parity in the league right now, let's call it 90.  That mean in all total we need about 42 WAR (a replacement level team is assumed 48 wins).  

so we need to make up about 16 WAR.  

The most obvious area to make up some ground is on the pitching side where we currently have 4 total WAR for our entire SP and RP staffs.  On pace for about 5 total. 

Richards is a huge factor.  If he is truly healthy, he can give us about 3.5 to 4.0 WAR.  Assuming he replaces our worst pitchers we are actually about +5 (a replacement player would give us +1.  that's how bad the back end of our rotation has been).  

Shoe has to be similar to this year and give us 4 wins.  

An average pen will give you 3 wins.  About +2 from where we currently sit.  So +7 so far.  

Offense/Defense is on pace for 20 wins.  Close to the top ten in baseball with clear room for improvement

Can we assume slight improvement at C?  I think we have to but I also think it's feasible.  On pace for 2.5 wins, I think we can get 3.5 with a full year of Bandy.  +1 (+8 total)

I don't see much change at 1b so we'll call it even

2b is at about a 0.3 pace for the season.  If we add someone just over 2 wins (not a stretch), we get +2 (+10)

ss - we need a full season of Simmons which gives an additional win +1 (+11)

3b - our pace is 2.5 wins.  I can't see us moving the needle here at all next year.

RF - pace of almost 4 wins.  Should stay the same

CF - Trout needs to be Trout.  

LF - on pace for about -1 win.  Atrocious but that means even an ok player of 2 WAR gets us +3.  (+14 total)

DH - likely no change here.  

I'll assume similar production from our bench

 

So that means with need to make up about another 2-3 wins at least through the starting pitching.  Since we are assuming stable production from Shoe and a healthy Richards replacing our worst production, the additional wins aren't hard to come by.  Especially considering what will be available.  

Skaggs has to make up at least one of those wins, but I am not sure where the rest is coming from.  We would have to assume that one of Meyer, Olberholtzer or Banuelos provide above replacement level production as a combo for the entire season for two rotation spots.  

 

So in summary, we need a 2 win 2bman, a 2 win LFer, probably a 2 win SP, a revamp of the pen enough to be league average, a healthy richards, a similar shoemaker, improvement from the C position, and everyone else to perform as they have this year. 

Meaning it's gonna take some combo of someone like Reddick, Prado, a rebound year from Buckholz, Kenley Jansen, an additional relieve on top of that, maybe another SP looking to rebound, and most importantly, a healthy Richards.  Oh, and nothing can go wrong.  Yeah, I am not feelin' it.  

 

 

I think Cowart is that second baseman that pushes the WAR meter significantly. Well above Pennington/Giavotella in offense and at least at Pennington level defense or better. That arm scored an out last night that would haven't completed a double play with a replacement player. 

So it's now looking like the only real position player hole is left field. 

But we still have a rotation of Shoe, Skaggs, Nolasco and two question marks. Richard's may or may not return but even if he does the #5 spot is still empty. 

Not no but hell no to Fuckholzt. He never was able to pitch a full season and he's done at 31.

[totdprods]

When it comes to SP, I'd prioritize durability and whomever would pitch favorably to AL West park conditions over effectiveness or ceiling. I believe Eppler is gambling that one of his lotto ticket SPs in Meyer, Banuelos, or Oberholtzer emerge as an upper-tier SP. Between Shoemaker, Skaggs, Richards, Heaney, and one of those three mentioned, we should be able to at least put together a good #1-#3 in the rotation. 

What we really need in '17 is someone to eat innings and not go on the disabled list. Someone to keep the bullpen from overworking itself to death so we can develop some young pen arms in there and to provide a veteran cushion while the baby arms take their lumps.

[Chuck]

The only certainty that any of us have is this.

None of us know how good or bad the Angels will be in 2017. 

/End Thread

[Ohtaniland]

11 hours ago, ghoetke said:

If we can get all of our starting pitching back healthy , not including CJ, and pick up another solid reliever, we have the makings of a contender with rest of the group we have, imo. What say you ??

Do you work for Sports Illustrated? 

[stormngt]

10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I was just thinking about the math in regards to this.  

Right now, we have accumulated about 21 WAR through 132 games.  putting us on pace for about 26 for the season.  which would give us about a 74-88 record by pythag.  The reason I am using this instead of our true record is to give us a more accurate idea of what we need if our on field luck is neutral next year. To have a shot at the wild card, we will need anywhere from 88-93 wins.  As there is a fair amount of parity in the league right now, let's call it 90.  That mean in all total we need about 42 WAR (a replacement level team is assumed 48 wins).  

so we need to make up about 16 WAR.  

The most obvious area to make up some ground is on the pitching side where we currently have 4 total WAR for our entire SP and RP staffs.  On pace for about 5 total. 

Richards is a huge factor.  If he is truly healthy, he can give us about 3.5 to 4.0 WAR.  Assuming he replaces our worst pitchers we are actually about +5 (a replacement player would give us +1.  that's how bad the back end of our rotation has been).  

Shoe has to be similar to this year and give us 4 wins.  

An average pen will give you 3 wins.  About +2 from where we currently sit.  So +7 so far.  

Offense/Defense is on pace for 20 wins.  Close to the top ten in baseball with clear room for improvement

Can we assume slight improvement at C?  I think we have to but I also think it's feasible.  On pace for 2.5 wins, I think we can get 3.5 with a full year of Bandy.  +1 (+8 total)

I don't see much change at 1b so we'll call it even

2b is at about a 0.3 pace for the season.  If we add someone just over 2 wins (not a stretch), we get +2 (+10)

ss - we need a full season of Simmons which gives an additional win +1 (+11)

3b - our pace is 2.5 wins.  I can't see us moving the needle here at all next year.

RF - pace of almost 4 wins.  Should stay the same

CF - Trout needs to be Trout.  

LF - on pace for about -1 win.  Atrocious but that means even an ok player of 2 WAR gets us +3.  (+14 total)

DH - likely no change here.  

I'll assume similar production from our bench

 

So that means with need to make up about another 2-3 wins at least through the starting pitching.  Since we are assuming stable production from Shoe and a healthy Richards replacing our worst production, the additional wins aren't hard to come by.  Especially considering what will be available.  

Skaggs has to make up at least one of those wins, but I am not sure where the rest is coming from.  We would have to assume that one of Meyer, Olberholtzer or Banuelos provide above replacement level production as a combo for the entire season for two rotation spots.  

 

So in summary, we need a 2 win 2bman, a 2 win LFer, probably a 2 win SP, a revamp of the pen enough to be league average, a healthy richards, a similar shoemaker, improvement from the C position, and everyone else to perform as they have this year. 

Meaning it's gonna take some combo of someone like Reddick, Prado, a rebound year from Buckholz, Kenley Jansen, an additional relieve on top of that, maybe another SP looking to rebound, and most importantly, a healthy Richards.  Oh, and nothing can go wrong.  Yeah, I am not feelin' it.  

 

 

I am sorry but sometimes stay geeks go too far and get too complicated.

[halomatt]

Small Sample Size.  Wait a week or so and then reevaluate.  

[stormngt]

The left field can be solved by signing Reddick.  2nd base will be improved simple by putting Cowart there.  3rd base is going to be Escobar.  Unless we can come up with a solid leadoff hitter and he gets traded.

Must use our money to get a lock down pen.

Starting pitchers of Richard, shiemaker, Meyers, Smith,    and ????

With luck we can make the playoffs but more than.likely it would not happen

  It is important we don't blow our wad on trying to next year.  2018 is far better possibility to compete.

[Hubs]

10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I was just thinking about the math in regards to this.  

Right now, we have accumulated about 21 WAR through 132 games.  putting us on pace for about 26 for the season.  which would give us about a 74-88 record by pythag.  The reason I am using this instead of our true record is to give us a more accurate idea of what we need if our on field luck is neutral next year. To have a shot at the wild card, we will need anywhere from 88-93 wins.  As there is a fair amount of parity in the league right now, let's call it 90.  That mean in all total we need about 42 WAR (a replacement level team is assumed 48 wins).  

so we need to make up about 16 WAR.  

The most obvious area to make up some ground is on the pitching side where we currently have 4 total WAR for our entire SP and RP staffs.  On pace for about 5 total. 

Richards is a huge factor.  If he is truly healthy, he can give us about 3.5 to 4.0 WAR.  Assuming he replaces our worst pitchers we are actually about +5 (a replacement player would give us +1.  that's how bad the back end of our rotation has been).  

Shoe has to be similar to this year and give us 4 wins.  

An average pen will give you 3 wins.  About +2 from where we currently sit.  So +7 so far.  

Offense/Defense is on pace for 20 wins.  Close to the top ten in baseball with clear room for improvement

Can we assume slight improvement at C?  I think we have to but I also think it's feasible.  On pace for 2.5 wins, I think we can get 3.5 with a full year of Bandy.  +1 (+8 total)

I don't see much change at 1b so we'll call it even

2b is at about a 0.3 pace for the season.  If we add someone just over 2 wins (not a stretch), we get +2 (+10)

ss - we need a full season of Simmons which gives an additional win +1 (+11)

3b - our pace is 2.5 wins.  I can't see us moving the needle here at all next year.

RF - pace of almost 4 wins.  Should stay the same

CF - Trout needs to be Trout.  

LF - on pace for about -1 win.  Atrocious but that means even an ok player of 2 WAR gets us +3.  (+14 total)

DH - likely no change here.  

I'll assume similar production from our bench

So that means with need to make up about another 2-3 wins at least through the starting pitching.  Since we are assuming stable production from Shoe and a healthy Richards replacing our worst production, the additional wins aren't hard to come by.  Especially considering what will be available.  

Skaggs has to make up at least one of those wins, but I am not sure where the rest is coming from.  We would have to assume that one of Meyer, Olberholtzer or Banuelos provide above replacement level production as a combo for the entire season for two rotation spots.  

So in summary, we need a 2 win 2bman, a 2 win LFer, probably a 2 win SP, a revamp of the pen enough to be league average, a healthy richards, a similar shoemaker, improvement from the C position, and everyone else to perform as they have this year. 

Meaning it's gonna take some combo of someone like Reddick, Prado, a rebound year from Buckholz, Kenley Jansen, an additional relieve on top of that, maybe another SP looking to rebound, and most importantly, a healthy Richards.  Oh, and nothing can go wrong.  Yeah, I am not feelin' it.  

OK, so I like the math. I think you are a bit low on two of the above. A healthy Cron is worth +1 WAR, his health was iffy, but when he gets going he is a real power threat. Whether you put that at 1st or DH is up to you.

I like your 2B concept, but don't know where we get a +2 WAR 2nd Baseman. I suppose they could get Neil Walker, or Justin Turner, or Martin Prado, which adds 2 WAR easy, but they are all on the wrong side of 30. If Cowart could hit, then I think he could be a 2 WAR 2B.

And in LF, Reddick slumped with the Dodgers but won't cost a draft pick if he signed, so that's worth exploring. Saunders is 30, but he had a rebound year. Bautista or Trumbo would be fine as well. They don't need a guy who will be in Left field for the next 10 years, just a stop gap until they get a guy from the minors like Jones ready. I'm okay going older here.

Need to add a starter, but Gio Gonzalez or Doug Fister are the only two names I'd consider who are free agents. One of those guys equals +3. (because we are -1 and they would be worth 2 WAR at least).

And I think they get +2 from the pen if they add a solid reliever and Street is healthy. One reason the Pythag W/L is really bad for this year is our BP was atrocious in the beginning of the year. Street from 2015, plus a solid 8th inning guy equals 1 or 2 WAR.

 

 

 

 

[stormngt]

Maybe we get by with a 1.5 war at second base?

[Taylor]

5 hours ago, m0nkey said:

Is this the same guy who wrote s/b for should be?

I remember that. Classic thread, although I can't recall what it was about.