Is CJ Cron a keeper?

[Ohtaniland]

10 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

I was hoping this would be a upbeat thread and guys like you would stay out of it

Think AL West ... only 23 runs difference between the Angels and the Rangers.

I don't want the Angels to trade Cron. We've already pushed out Napoli, Morales and Trumbo. Cron was a first round pick.

[ettin]

Cron is a DH only bat who is not athletic enough to play any type of quality defense at any position. Even at 1B his defense is suspect. He is not the type of player you like to have on your roster generally speaking.

However his bat is coming around for sure so you can't just trade him without a plan to replace his offensive production, particularly with a middle of the order type bat. So unless the Angels come up with a replacement solution you have to keep him to keep your offense intact (#6 when I last checked Claude).

If you can replace him I think this offseason is the perfect time to do so.

[ettin]

4 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

Kendrick netted us Heaney ... with one year left on a contract that paid him around $8M.

Cron not Kendrick but has plenty of upside with four years of control. Can we get a top pitching prospect who can help us out next season and beyond?

I think Cron's value is a bit higher than Kendrick's was at the time we traded him. Because Cron is a bat-only player he doesn't bring defense at an up the middle position like Howie did but Cron has three more years of additional control than Howie (although those will be increasingly expensive years for a DH type).

C.J. could certainly bring back a top prospect plus one more mid-tier type in my opinion. Power bats are hard to find too so his value may be even more but I think a Top 30 prospect isn't a pipe dream plus another Top 70-120 type player. These are just ballpark guesses I haven't put a terrible amount of thought into his value so these are off the cuff.

[John Stellman]

7 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

I like this kid a lot! I don't believe we've seen his best yet but I can't help thinking what his trade value could be. The kid still has four more years of club control left.

Does Eppler explore his trade value in the off season? 

Maybe the ingenious Eppler can find another 3-headed left fielder!

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, ettin said:

The Angels have a Top 10 offense so you either keep that group for next year or you trade one or more and replace them off of the free agent market or through other trades.

Cron's production is potentially replaceable but you have to make the right set of moves if you're thinking about moving him.

We also need to consider the right time to trade Cron. You don't want to trade a young player before he's had a chance to establish any sort of value. Through injuries and inconsistency, we just haven't witnessed his actual ability yet.

I'd give C.J. A full season next year. If he still hasn't put together a consistent season after that, the value still wouldn't have been hurt much.

I absolutely wouldn't trade Cron yet. He's capable of of .280 and 30+ DB and 30+ HR. But no team would pay that kind of a price for him, so we are better off holding on for now.

[totdprods]

59 minutes ago, ettin said:

C.J. could certainly bring back a top prospect plus one more mid-tier type in my opinion. Power bats are hard to find too so his value may be even more but I think a Top 30 prospect isn't a pipe dream plus another Top 70-120 type player. These are just ballpark guesses I haven't put a terrible amount of thought into his value so these are off the cuff.

That feels pretty high; remember, the first third of his season, 100 ABs, he was a sub .700 OPS guy, and he had stretches of that his first two years. For someone whose value is almost entirely based on his bat, he hasn't been good enough consistently to bring that back - yet. 

As I mentioned earlier, I see his value and Shoemaker's value as being very similar. They've shown glimpses of being really special, and glimpses of being replacement level, and both over the course of a two or three seasons now. If they can maintain production through 2017, both of these guys could fetch a fortune on the trade market, and at that point, we will have in-house replacements close to returning in SPs like Heaney and Tropeano and DH types in Marte and Thaiss.

By that point, Eppler will have also had this offseason, another amateur draft, and all of next season to assess the club's needs and can better gauge what we would need to contend in 2018. Leverage the potential trade chips in Cron and Shoe at that time, when we have a clearer image of our immediate needs.

[tdawg87]

Keep CJ and trade him at the deadline next year if he's hitting well.

[Angelsjunky]

7 hours ago, ettin said:

I think Eppler will definitely explore his value and I have reason to believe he has a higher probability of just about anyone on our team to be traded.

Is this "reason to believe" a little birdy or you just staring at the Baseball Reference page for hours on end?

 

[Angelsjunky]

Anyhow, Cron has weird trade value. On one hand, he's yet to play a full season, has limited upside, and is streaky. On the other, there is potential there, maybe .280/30 HR potential - and potential sometimes has more value than actual.

I say don't trade him, or not unless someone offers a prospect with higher upside. By this time next year it is very possible that Cron is the second best hitter on the team; actually, he was just about there before he got injured. I also like how he is developing as a hitter: he is showing better plate discipline overall and raising his batting average. Maybe it is at the expense of power, but I'd rather see him hit .290 with 20 HR and 50 BB than .250 with 30 HR and 30 BB, partially because .290-20 can more easily turn into .280-30 than .250-30 can.

[Blarg]

7 hours ago, mulwin444 said:

If this is the legit Cron and not "streaky" Cron, then, if you want to complete in '17, you have to keep him as a part of your offense.  Next year, you are looking at:

 

1)  Escobar 3B - .320 .368 .769 OPS 114 OPS+

2)  Calhoun RF - .270 .352 .770 OPS 113 OPS+

3)  Trout CF - .316 .434 .991 OPS 173 OPS+

4)  Pujols DH - .263 .323 .773 OPS 112 OPS+

5)  Cron 1B - .285 .335 .813 OPS 122 OPS+

as your top 5.

 

That's a solid offensive line-up.  You also have the potential behind them of:

6)  Marte 3B/LF - .254 .295 .776 OPS 110 OPS+

It will curious to see if Marte can continue to develop offensively or if this is his peak.  His number this year are very similar to what Trumo gave us his final year prior to being traded (.234 .295 .747 OPS 109 OPS+) but at cost controlled numbers. Based on power potential, it looks like he has a place in the line-up.

7)  Simmons SS - .272 .308 .641 OPS 78 OPS+

8)  Bandy C - .260 (?) .320 (?) .750 (?)

9)  Cowart 2B - ????

 

Even with the question marks 6-9, that's the line-up of a contender, health permitting.

Although you are getting ahead of yourself a little I like the positives you are pointing out. It's not all doom and gloom when you look at the core that should be penciled in next season and with a minor addition to strengthen the bench, yes, it could be a viable offense to contend with. If... yeah, everyone stays healthy, the core plays to it's current level, Cowart is able to produce with the bat (I get the feeling that won't be an issue) Bandy is not a one month wonder and can keep at the level he is at. We still have left field question and I'm not so certain Marte is the answer but his home run power flashed in so few plate appearances is pretty sexy right now.

Pitching is what is going to hobble this horse next season. We all know it, there just isn't enough quality arms in the rotation or pen and the free agent market is not giving up anything we don't already have and that is journeyman. So it is up to Eppler to pull that rabbit out of his hat to make the team a cohesive bunch in the off season with a little more budget but a whole lot less options.

[totdprods]

I think 2017 is going to be about trying to catch lightning in a bottle with at least one or two of our SPs we've acquired - Banuelos, Oberholtzer, or Meyer - and continued auditions in the pen. I don't think they're going to do much to the line-up or offense. It's producing pretty well right now, and almost all of them are under contract for the next few years. I can see them adding another cheap, supplemental bat in LF to shore that up since it's been a deadzone, but don't expect anything major. From there, they can rotate guys like Cowart, Marte, Choi, and Ortega through bench/platoon roles and see if any of them step forward to fill 2B, 3B, or LF in 2018+. 

Save money and what prospects we have and see what we can get lucky with until 2018. Then you can start making some tough decisions.

 

[ettin]

54 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Is this "reason to believe" a little birdy or you just staring at the Baseball Reference page for hours on end?

 

Thanks for being a smartass about it.

Specifically there are at least 8-9 teams in the American League that will need a DH in this coming off season. The market for a DH hitter is probably as strong as it has been in a long while. The Blue Jays, Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Royals, Indians (1B or DH possibly), Astros, and White Sox will all probably need a DH due to poor performance or players hitting free agency.

Go take a look at it AJ before dismissing the comment. I don't have little birdies, I look at payroll, team needs, potential free agents, and what little depth the team has to make educated guesses at possible moves and directions they can take. Do I have inside knowledge, no I don't and most of us don't here. But there are indicators you can look at and evaluate.

The DH market is strong this coming offseason, Cron is having a good year and he has four years of team control. If there was ever a time this offseason is it, in my opinion. Angels long-term salary outlook is not pretty and Cron's arbitration numbers after next year will kick into high gear. You could certainly keep him and the Angels might very well do that because he is cheap in 2017 but the market is a lot prettier this offseason particularly because the free agent class for sluggers isn't very broad and full of high quality hitters.

Certainly an AL team will pick up an Encarnacion or Bautista but there is only so much supply and there is a lot of demand. That combined with long-term payroll issues, the ability to potentially take advantage of the market to a degree, Cron's lack of athleticism, and the ability to possibly replace his offensive production through free agency and/or trade are the "reasons to believe" that he has a higher probability than most players of being traded this offseason. Please note that "higher probability" could have a very wide range of percentages but it does mean that Cron is up there with 1-2 other Angels that could possibly be dealt in the offseason if the deal makes sense to Eppler and he can replace their production satisfactorily.

I will discuss this and more in the Primer series but I just summarized what I will talk about when it comes to potentially moving Cron as I already a chunk of it written up.

[totdprods]

I just don't see us moving Cron right now. His value can really only go up.

The pitching staff is more than likely going to be a total work in progress next season, whereas our offense is essentially set (and under contract for the foreseeable future) and productive. 

The Arte/Scioscia regime has long fed us the line about hesitating to create a hole just to fill another. Eppler says rebuilding isn't in the DNA. I don't see them taking the risk of hurting the offense they've built when it's the only productive aspect of this team, and I don't think Cron has enough value to tip the pitching scale enough in the opposite direction, especially when out pitching staff is hopefully only a wreck for one more season.

[Troll Daddy]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

I think 2017 is going to be about trying to catch lightning in a bottle with at least one or two of our SPs we've acquired - Banuelos, Oberholtzer, or Meyer - and continued auditions in the pen. I don't think they're going to do much to the line-up or offense. It's producing pretty well right now, and almost all of them are under contract for the next few years. I can see them adding another cheap, supplemental bat in LF to shore that up since it's been a deadzone, but don't expect anything major. From there, they can rotate guys like Cowart, Marte, Choi, and Ortega through bench/platoon roles and see if any of them step forward to fill 2B, 3B, or LF in 2018+. 

Save money and what prospects we have and see what we can get lucky with until 2018. Then you can start making some tough decisions.

 

I like your opinions ... you have a good feel for the team. Although, I think the tough decisions have already started. I see no reason to wait until 2018. I think Eppler will find a more permanent solution to LF in the off season.

The guys want to win yesterday not tomorrow. I prefer to hear ideas for 2017. I'm not buying into the waiting game. 

[Angelsjunky]

Actually, ettin, I was half-joking and was honestly curious if you heard anything ("little birdy") as you said "reason to believe" which I thought implied some outside source. You may be right, although to me it doesn't make a huge amount of sense because Cron represents a significant amount of offense for the team and they'd just have to replace it.

[ettin]

28 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Actually, ettin, I was half-joking and was honestly curious if you heard anything ("little birdy") as you said "reason to believe" which I thought implied some outside source. You may be right, although to me it doesn't make a huge amount of sense because Cron represents a significant amount of offense for the team and they'd just have to replace it.

Alright AJ.

His offense can be replaced whether it is through free agency or trade. He's hitting RHP at a 127 wRC+ and LHP at a 99 wRC+ right now. That can be replicated in my opinion. I'm not advocating one way or the other but if the Angels could trade him for a young athletic LF for instance it would potentially be worth it. Maybe not. Maybe the market doesn't develop as it appears it can. Maybe the Royals re-sign Morales. Maybe the Indians re-sign Napoli and the market shrinks. That is the big unknown. However most of those available DH types are on the wrong side of 30 and teams may very well want to get younger at the DH spot and think longer term.

I really don't care one way or the other I'm just laying out reasons why and they are valid in my opinion. Cron could stay and possibly get even better who knows I'm not a scout.

[Ohtaniland]

What he's got two homeruns tonight? He'll be dealt for a middle relief pitcher by the 7th inning.

[totdprods]

53 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

I like your opinions ... you have a good feel for the team. Although, I think the tough decisions have already started. I see no reason to wait until 2018. I think Eppler will find a more permanent solution to LF in the off season.

The guys want to win yesterday not tomorrow. I prefer to hear ideas for 2017. I'm not buying into the waiting game. 

Thanks! What I meant more by tough decisions was along the lines of when Eppler decides to go for it - either go for the postseason, or commit heavier to the 'retool'. What impact FAs will he sign? Which prospects/young players will be decide to trade?

I think by the end of 2017 we will see him make a much bolder move in one way, shape, or form. Either selling a major 'young' player like Shoe, Calhoun, or Simmons, or sending offsome prospects for an MLB player, or shelling out a big contract.

Much of last season's template will be replicated this offseason; cheap vets on low money, guys who can be cut easily (Nava, Gentry) or traded (what was intended for Soto/Pennington) short commitments and a lot of under the radar minor league signings like Guerra, Marte, Choi, Ortega.

So I don't quite think the tough decisions have happened yet. Eppler has played it very conservatively thus far. 

I do agree on LF. That is the one position that must be addressed this offseason. Be it via trade, or more likely a FA; probably a cheap Jon Jay/Angel Pagan vet, but I wouldn't rule out a big name. I wouldn't be surprised if he prioritizes Saunders again.

[Angelsjunky]

OK, I'm liking his new season line through his first two at bats: .290/.340/.502. If he can do that over a whole season it would greatly help this team.

[totdprods]

Another plus to Cron mashing like this is that it starts to address one of my other concerns about trading Escobar. Part of my hesitation is that we don't have anyone suitable to replace Yunel at the lead-off slot. Cron is mashing enough that he is starting to look like a true clean-up hitter, to the point where you can rely on Calhoun leading off. I don't think that's ideal - I prefer Kole hitting second and having Cron extend the lineup in the 5 spot rather than Simmons - but it at least offers a reasonable alternative for '17.

[tdawg87]

Scotty's erection is reaching critical limits

[disarcina]

IMO right now -today - there are only two KEEPERS on the Halos.

Mike Trout

A. Simmons.

Pujols is also a Keeper but not necessarily by choice -- no one will take on his contract -- having said that -- overlooked in all the Pujols bashing which seems to be popular in the national MLB type media -- is the fact he's put up pretty good numbers not only this season but pretty much during his entire time with the Halos save the first two or three months with the team.........

 

[Troll Daddy]

17 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Thanks! What I meant more by tough decisions was along the lines of when Eppler decides to go for it - either go for the postseason, or commit heavier to the 'retool'. What impact FAs will he sign? Which prospects/young players will be decide to trade?

I think by the end of 2017 we will see him make a much bolder move in one way, shape, or form. Either selling a major 'young' player like Shoe, Calhoun, or Simmons, or sending offsome prospects for an MLB player, or shelling out a big contract.

Much of last season's template will be replicated this offseason; cheap vets on low money, guys who can be cut easily (Nava, Gentry) or traded (what was intended for Soto/Pennington) short commitments and a lot of under the radar minor league signings like Guerra, Marte, Choi, Ortega.

So I don't quite think the tough decisions have happened yet. Eppler has played it very conservatively thus far. 

I do agree on LF. That is the one position that must be addressed this offseason. Be it via trade, or more likely a FA; probably a cheap Jon Jay/Angel Pagan vet, but I wouldn't rule out a big name. I wouldn't be surprised if he prioritizes Saunders again.

A lot of the fidgeting type moves last off season had more to do with Eppler trying to get acclimated with the team and working under the luxury cap.

I doubt you'll see last years template in the off season. I think the FO will spend most of our cap space in the off season improving the team. 

You don't have to make a tough decision to 'go for it' until the trade deadline.  

What ever does end up happening ... it should be a interesting. It's anybody's guess as to how it unfolds. 

 

[Troll Daddy]

21 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Scotty's erection is reaching critical limits

You must have the inside track on his erections. 

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

A lot of the fidgeting type moves last off season had more to do with Eppler trying to get acclimated with the team and working under the luxury cap.

I doubt you'll see last years template in the off season. I think the FO will spend most of our cap space in the off season improving the team. 

You don't have to make a tough decision to 'go for it' until the trade deadline.  

What ever does end up happening ... it should be a interesting. It's anybody's guess as to how it unfolds. 

 

I can totally see a path where they make couple of moves that that would shore up the MLB team and put them in a position to get lucky and compete without breaking the bank, commiting a lot of years, or dealing away prospects. 

Can also see them rolling out something similar to last year and going really cheap, with the intent of ensuring guys like Cowart, Marte, Choi, Ortega, Banuelos, Meyer, and Oberholtzer get ample time, just to determine if any of them really should factor into 2018 and beyond.

I could also see a path where they go nuts and spend like effin' crazy.

Really hard to say. It'll be very interesting. If it was me, I would try and go somewhere between those first two options. Don't want to rely on the kids too much, mostly because I don't think that stable really is that talented, but also don't want to waste too much playing time on cheap vets close whose shelf lives are almost up.