The Official Los Angeles Angels 2017 Minor League Statlines & Prospects thread

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

I can't think of a good comp for his actual repertoire, but when I think of pitchers that out-perform their stuff, the first one that comes to mind is Tom Glavine. Also, Andy Pettitte and Jered Weaver.

 

I feel like Weaver out performed his peripherals but had really good stuff at his peak.  Pettitte and Glavine are good thoughts but the former took roids while pitching against guys taking roids.  Glavine pitched against guys who too roids, out performed his peripherals and actually walked a ton of guys over his career.  He never gave in.  If he were on the Angels, he'd be called a nibbler.  

Barria (this year anyway) doesn't walk many, has a good k rate (not great) and has held down hits and hrs.  He's a pretty 'sturdy' looking guy.  

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

Fangraphs > Sickels, BA, other asshole publications. 

Sorry, can't come into agreement with that.  Marc Hulet at FG is remarkably dense when it comes to the Angels.  He's made it clear in years past that we aren't an organization he pays close attention to and finds it difficult to motivate himself into writing our top prospect reports.  He has no scouting ability and his information is frequently incorrect.  FG had a good order list last year, but that's about it.

Sickels is by far the best of that group.  He's even-keeled, an optimist by nature and has said all along that the Angels system isn't as bad as everyone else seems to think.  I've spoken with him before, he enjoyed reading my takes at MWAH, and he's kept up since I came over here.

BA is superior to BP.   FG and BA are about even in that they're both terrible.  BP's just the worst. 
 

And yeah, we are the best.  Back at MWAH it was just me running the show, but now we have Dave, Brent, Doc, Chuck, AJ, IP all feeding into this.  You're seeing a lot of opinions on these guys that give our audience a much more accurate take.

[Chuck]

21 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

And yeah, we are the best.  Back at MWAH it was just me running the show, but now we have Dave, Brent, Doc, Chuck, AJ, IP all feeding into this.  You're seeing a lot of opinions on these guys that give our audience a much more accurate take.

^

[Second Base]

My best comps with Barria aren't perfect fits.  Rick Porcello in terms of upside and the fact he made the majors early on.  Nick Tropeano based off the arsenal.  Michael Fulmer based off build and performance (Fulmer throws 2 mph harder).  Tanner Roark too (Barria throws 2 mph harder).

But I think taken as a whole, we can see in that grouping a solid list of #3-4-5 starters, all of which have found their niche in the big leagues.  What works in the minors doesn't work in the majors, so adjustments are necessary.  Barria strikes me as the type of kid that won't get rattled and adjust quickly.

The best thing about Barria is that he takes a while to appreciate.  You watch one start and think, "Good game.  Not the best stuff but good enough."  You start watching him four or five times and you start to really appreciate the subtle nuances.  The way he holds the ball out of the stretch to keep runners guessing.  The way he circles the mound after a strikeout, the same as after a walk.  The leisurely pace at which he enters and leaves the field.  The quick pace at which he works.  The way he reacts to a poor strike zone.  The fastball that goes one way in one pitch and another on the other.  How he'll add and subtract on his slider, and keep his change up low in the zone.  The way he'll bury two pitches if he gets ahead in the count. 

It's for all these reasons that it has taken the rest of the prospect world to catch on to what so many of us knew more than a year ago.  It reminds me of Trout and Calhoun all over again.  Sure folks had heard of Trout but when he broke out, people pretended as if this was a sudden and unexpected thing.  and with Calhoun, shoot I think we all knew he was coming more than two years in advance.  I knew the Spring Training before he went to AAA, when I sat in the stands with the scouts and observed their conversations and how they acted around certain players.  The conversation ceased immediately when he came up.  He hit his second shot of the game off the wall in CF and there were shaking heads and furious scribbling on paper.  One even walked away and called someone. 

I can only imagine how frequently he came up in trade negotiations. Barria should be the pitching version of that.  Better than anyone realizes until a solid four years into his career. 

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Nice!  Barria seems to be a guy that is going to outperform his 'stuff' because of his ability to pitch.  I've been trying to think of good comps for him.  

I have a hard time finding good comps for him too... There has been an uptick in his velocity/stuff so, he's not completely devoid there by any stretch, at worst he's starting to look like he will have three pitches no worse than MLB average.   But the one guy that IMO probably does the best job of outperforming his stuff by just pitching his ass off is maybe Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs.  I don't think he even touches 90 on an even semi-regular basis -- but you watch him pitch and it's inside/outside up down..    He's always working...

[Docwaukee]

15 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

My best comps with Barria aren't perfect fits.  Rick Porcello in terms of upside and the fact he made the majors early on.  Nick Tropeano based off the arsenal.  Michael Fulmer based off build and performance (Fulmer throws 2 mph harder).  Tanner Roark too (Barria throws 2 mph harder).

But I think taken as a whole, we can see in that grouping a solid list of #3-4-5 starters, all of which have found their niche in the big leagues.  What works in the minors doesn't work in the majors, so adjustments are necessary.  Barria strikes me as the type of kid that won't get rattled and adjust quickly.

The best thing about Barria is that he takes a while to appreciate.  You watch one start and think, "Good game.  Not the best stuff but good enough."  You start watching him four or five times and you start to really appreciate the subtle nuances.  The way he holds the ball out of the stretch to keep runners guessing.  The way he circles the mound after a strikeout, the same as after a walk.  The leisurely pace at which he enters and leaves the field.  The quick pace at which he works.  The way he reacts to a poor strike zone.  The fastball that goes one way in one pitch and another on the other.  How he'll add and subtract on his slider, and keep his change up low in the zone.  The way he'll bury two pitches if he gets ahead in the count. 

It's for all these reasons that it has taken the rest of the prospect world to catch on to what so many of us knew more than a year ago.  It reminds me of Trout and Calhoun all over again.  Sure folks had heard of Trout but when he broke out, people pretended as if this was a sudden and unexpected thing.  and with Calhoun, shoot I think we all knew he was coming more than two years in advance.  I knew the Spring Training before he went to AAA, when I sat in the stands with the scouts and observed their conversations and how they acted around certain players.  The conversation ceased immediately when he came up.  He hit his second shot of the game off the wall in CF and there were shaking heads and furious scribbling on paper.  One even walked away and called someone. 

I can only imagine how frequently he came up in trade negotiations. Barria should be the pitching version of that.  Better than anyone realizes until a solid four years into his career. 

Barria really seems to know what he can and can't do.  Keeping guys off balance.  pitching backwards.  etc. 

I wasn't a believer in him early on until I saw him.  

[Docwaukee]

Thaiss 1-4 last night.  3-4, bb, sb, double tonight.  3 of his 4 outs have been k's.  

[TroutField]

12 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Thaiss 1-4 last night.  3-4, bb, sb, double tonight.  3 of his 4 outs have been k's.  

He's ready, call him up to play 1st

[Angelsjunky]

@Dochalo, or the Barria comp, how about Dan Haren? If I remember correctly, Haren had pretty good stuff, but he was always a bit under the radar and a pretty underrated pitcher during his prime (2005-11), when he quietly had the third best WAR among all starting pitchers but never finished higher than 5th in Cy Young voting, and only got votes two years. He also had great walk and strikeout ratios.

 

[Docwaukee]

16 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

@Dochalo, or the Barria comp, how about Dan Haren? If I remember correctly, Haren had pretty good stuff, but he was always a bit under the radar and a pretty underrated pitcher during his prime (2005-11), when he quietly had the third best WAR among all starting pitchers but never finished higher than 5th in Cy Young voting, and only got votes two years. He also had great walk and strikeout ratios.

 

maybe although Haren topped out in the mid to high 90's when he first came up.  The other similarities are good though.  Body type doesn't match.  

[tdawg87]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Thaiss 1-4 last night.  3-4, bb, sb, double tonight.  3 of his 4 outs have been k's.  

Hermosillo had 2 hits and a walk, as well as a SB. He's raised his average 20 points in 10 games. 

I'm starting to question whether the Angels should bother extending Maybin. While there's no question Maybin is a better runner and athlete, Herm still gets his share of stolen bases (22 in 74 games this year) and his .370 OBP at Mobile is very good. His OBP over the last 10 games is .457, which is Trout-esque. 

I wouldn't be shocked if Herm is hitting in front of Trout at the start of 2018. 

[tdawg87]

8 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Hermosillo had 2 hits and a walk, as well as a SB. He's raised his average 20 points in 10 games. 

I'm starting to question whether the Angels should bother extending Maybin. While there's no question Maybin is a better runner and athlete, Herm still gets his share of stolen bases (22 in 74 games this year) and his .370 OBP at Mobile is very good. His OBP over the last 10 games is .457, which is Trout-esque. 

I wouldn't be shocked if Herm is hitting in front of Trout at the start of 2018. 

Actually he's raised his average 51 points in his last 20 games. Over that span, he is hitting .352, with 8 SB and a .477 OBP. That's a third of his season so far at AA. 

[Angel Oracle]

Based on reports here of his stuff and mannerisms, Barria kind of sounds like a RHP version of some LHP from the past, some guy named Fernando Valenzuela.

Of course, Barria doesn't throw the screwball and isn't a lefty, but the other things seem to bare a resemblance to Valenzuela, the poise, the ability to approach every pitch with the same look.  Valenzuela wasn't overpowering either.

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Hermosillo had 2 hits and a walk, as well as a SB. He's raised his average 20 points in 10 games. 

I'm starting to question whether the Angels should bother extending Maybin. While there's no question Maybin is a better runner and athlete, Herm still gets his share of stolen bases (22 in 74 games this year) and his .370 OBP at Mobile is very good. His OBP over the last 10 games is .457, which is Trout-esque. 

I wouldn't be shocked if Herm is hitting in front of Trout at the start of 2018. 

That'd be a bit ambitious. At best I think Hermosillo's presence gives Eppler and Co. a little bit of comfort in knowing they don't have to re-sign Maybin, or at least can balk if he starts requiring more than 2 years. Let Herm's presence allow them consider other stopgaps like Jon Jay or Melky Cabrera instead of having to sign Cain or Maybin to a big deal.

Remember when Marte was going to be our starting 3B cause he was going to put up a .250 avg. with 25-30 HRs? I'd rather Herm be counted on as the 5th OF/first guy up from AAA starting '18, playing his way into the bigs and pushing out another Revere/Maybin type situation. 

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

That'd be a bit ambitious. At best I think Hermosillo's presence gives Eppler and Co. a little bit of comfort in knowing they don't have to re-sign Maybin, or at least can balk if he starts requiring more than 2 years. Let Herm's presence allow them consider other stopgaps like Jon Jay or Melky Cabrera instead of having to sign Cain or Maybin to a big deal.

Remember when Marte was going to be our starting 3B cause he was going to put up a .250 avg. with 25-30 HRs? I'd rather Herm be counted on as the 5th OF/first guy up from AAA starting '18, playing his way into the bigs and pushing out another Revere/Maybin type situation. 

Well this team has been playing conservative for years now so it's time to make an "ambitious" move for once.

Also Marte is absolutely nothing like Hermosillo in any way. 

[totdprods]

22 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Well this team has been playing conservative for years now so it's time to make an "ambitious" move for once.

Also Marte is absolutely nothing like Hermosillo in any way. 

And what if Herm struggles? We grab another Nick Franklin off waivers and through him into LF into May and hope for better?
What if we had given Marte the starting 3B job and declined to pick up the Yunel option?

I agree that they probably could stand to pull the trigger a little quicker on vets - we've been burned by Revere and Valbuena so far - but I still think we're better off picking cheap vets for reserve roles on cheap deals late in the offseason and saving our talented prospects for depth when those guys fail to pan out or we get hit with injuries. We just don't have the farm depth quite yet to rely on prospects for significant playing time, because it bumps everyone up the ladder one rung. That's why we've had to rely on guys like Ryan Franklin and Brendan Ryan and Nick Buss and Kirk Nieuwenhuis when people sucked or got hurt. I'd rather use our prospects for that in our current state. 

Now, in another year or two, when the Sanger, Lund, Montgomery, Gibbons, Foster, Way guys are all chilling in AAA and capable of being that 5th guy/first OF up from AAA, I think we have more flexibility in being aggressive with prospects, because we'll have some other options to play with should a better prospect struggle.

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Hermosillo had 2 hits and a walk, as well as a SB. He's raised his average 20 points in 10 games. 

I'm starting to question whether the Angels should bother extending Maybin. While there's no question Maybin is a better runner and athlete, Herm still gets his share of stolen bases (22 in 74 games this year) and his .370 OBP at Mobile is very good. His OBP over the last 10 games is .457, which is Trout-esque. 

I wouldn't be shocked if Herm is hitting in front of Trout at the start of 2018. 

On the contrary, I'd question if Maybin the better runner or athlete. Maybin is longer and leaner. When he reaches full speed he can fly. Herm's more compact, stronger, quicker than Maybin. With his football background, I think we could argue that with Herm's quick twitch reflexes, he may be more athletic than Maybin.

Now, we can't just throw Hermosillo into a starting role right now and discard everything Maybin has done. But Herm's performance can't be questioned by now. He did this in A Ball, Advanced A, Arizona Fall League, and now AA. 

We should plan for Herm to gradually grow into the role he'll fill as the Angels starting LF. Let him finish the year at AAA. If he's hitting .400 then he's the starting LF in 2018. If he's only decent, or even struggles, then you let him spend the year in AAA next year and give him a September promotion and have him start in 2019. 

Either way, I think extending Maybin should be done with caution. Let's see where we are at this offseason. 

If it were me making the decision, I think I'd offer Maybin a qualifying offer that he'd guarantee pass on because he'll want a 4+ year deal. Collect that draft pick, then bring back Young and Revere for 2018. They compete for a starting and 4th OF spot while Hermosillo develops in AAA until June/July.

[totdprods]

20 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

If it were me making the decision, I think I'd offer Maybin a qualifying offer that he'd guarantee pass on because he'll want a 4+ year deal. Collect that draft pick, then bring back Young and Revere for 2018. They compete for a starting and 4th OF spot while Hermosillo develops in AAA until June/July.

This is where I see Hermosillo slotting into the depth chart for 2018. Basically, where Eric Young was. 
Barring an impact LF acquisition, I would be fine with two stopgaps again in '18 with Herm waiting in the wings...players above him who aren't too expensive to dump or trade. Hermosillo's presence could also quietly make Calhoun more tradeable in the next 12-18 months too...

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, totdprods said:

This is where I see Hermosillo slotting into the depth chart for 2018. Basically, where Eric Young was. 
Barring an impact LF acquisition, I would be fine with two stopgaps again in '18 with Herm waiting in the wings...players above him who aren't too expensive to dump or trade. Hermosillo's presence could also quietly make Calhoun more tradeable in the next 12-18 months too...

I think it's low risk, high reward. Revere and Young at the least will give you speed and defense. Revere likely batting average as well.  So they're solid, but they don't block Herm.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Scotty@AW said:

I think it's low risk, high reward. Revere and Young at the least will give you speed and defense. Revere likely batting average as well.  So they're solid, but they don't block Herm.

And even though Revere has struggled overall and Young has cooled off, guys like that always have a little bit of value at the deadline (and August) as teams always need guys who can steal a base off the bench. Fringe prospects at best, but they're the type of role-playing vets that are always in a bit of demand, no matter how poor their batting line is.

Jon Jay or Melky Cabrera could fill a roll similar to Maybin as well. I just don't want to see the Halos again be in a position where, decimated with injuries, they're having to field a team of waiver claims and minor league FAs because their everyday players and bench players got hurt, and there was zero upper level prospect stock to shoulder the load. In one or two more years, that shouldn't be a concern, but for at least '18 I'd be hesitant on rushing guys like Hermosillo, Thaiss, Ward, Long, Barria, Fletcher into MLB duty. Put a bit of barrier between them in the form of tradeable, role player vets. Basically the '17 offseason template again (but hopefully with one or two more positions settled a little more long-term)

[Second Base]

5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

And even though Revere has struggled overall and Young has cooled off, guys like that always have a little bit of value at the deadline (and August) as teams always need guys who can steal a base off the bench. Fringe prospects at best, but they're the type of role-playing vets that are always in a bit of demand, no matter how poor their batting line is.

Jon Jay or Melky Cabrera could fill a roll similar to Maybin as well. I just don't want to see the Halos again be in a position where, decimated with injuries, they're having to field a team of waiver claims and minor league FAs because their everyday players and bench players got hurt, and there was zero upper level prospect stock to shoulder the load. In one or two more years, that shouldn't be a concern, but for at least '18 I'd be hesitant on rushing guys like Hermosillo, Thaiss, Ward, Long, Barria, Fletcher into MLB duty. Put a bit of barrier between them in the form of tradeable, role player vets. Basically the '17 offseason template again (but hopefully with one or two more positions settled a little more long-term)

I believe in rushing prospects if they're ready for the challenge.  Next year, theAngels will have Richards, Skaggs, Heaney and Tropeano all healthy and ready to go.  I can't say if any of them will stay healthy, but with depth like Meyer, Shoe, Bridewell, Ramirez, Barria and Long, pitching won't be a problem.  We'll have the necessary pitching staff to contend finally.  So I say, if a prospect is ready, get him in there. 

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I believe in rushing prospects if they're ready for the challenge.  Next year, theAngels will have Richards, Skaggs, Heaney and Tropeano all healthy and ready to go.  I can't say if any of them will stay healthy, but with depth like Meyer, Shoe, Bridewell, Ramirez, Barria and Long, pitching won't be a problem.  We'll have the necessary pitching staff to contend finally.  So I say, if a prospect is ready, get him in there. 

And I think it's certainly likely that the Hermosillo, Barria, Long, Thaiss, Fletcher, Ward wave could (and hopefully should) factor into '18 MLB action. I just don't want to start penciling those guys in as our first line of injury defense to open the 2018 season, unless any of them wrap this year up with insane AA/AAA campaigns. When that shit starts hitting the fan in '18, I'd like to be able to promote those prospects than if they're ready, instead of thrusting them into it.

[tdawg87]

25 minutes ago, totdprods said:

And I think it's certainly likely that the Hermosillo, Barria, Long, Thaiss, Fletcher, Ward wave could (and hopefully should) factor into '18 MLB action. I just don't want to start penciling those guys in as our first line of injury defense to open the 2018 season, unless any of them wrap this year up with insane AA/AAA campaigns. When that shit starts hitting the fan in '18, I'd like to be able to promote those prospects than if they're ready, instead of thrusting them into it.

I don't think you're wrong here. I understand where you're coming from. However, we actually have some depth in the minors now. Granted, most of it is in the lower levels, but we still have guys like Cesar Puello at AAA who could easily be the 4th OF right now. He doesn't have the upside of Herm but he's probably got a higher floor. 

[Second Base]

42 minutes ago, totdprods said:

And I think it's certainly likely that the Hermosillo, Barria, Long, Thaiss, Fletcher, Ward wave could (and hopefully should) factor into '18 MLB action. I just don't want to start penciling those guys in as our first line of injury defense to open the 2018 season, unless any of them wrap this year up with insane AA/AAA campaigns. When that shit starts hitting the fan in '18, I'd like to be able to promote those prospects than if they're ready, instead of thrusting them into it.

Exactly!  Unless they put up insane numbers in AAA.  But athletic guys that have broken out tend to put up insane numbers in AAA and so you have to have a plan for when that day comes.  Look at David Dahl last year, Ryan McMahon this year.  I know both from Colorado but those are two upside prospects that had figured it out in AA.  The fact that they've spent any time in AAA is only to remind their organization that they shouldn't be there.  Look at Trout right before we brought him up for good. 

Good prospects that hit in AA, will frequently destroy the PCL.  I'm not saying we anticipate Hermosillo doing that, I'm saying we have a plan of action if that happens.  Personally, I think it's likely it will happen. 

Peter Bourjos turned a corner in AA in 2009.  In 2010 he was putting up ridiculous numbers in Salt Lake.  Same exact thing happened in the same exact years fro Mark Trumbo.  Putting a guy like Trumbo in Salt Lake was unfair to begin with.  Bourjos said he saw Trumbo hit a liner that the shortstop leaped for leave the park.  That thin air just can't suppress a hard hit ball.  Trout hit .403 in AAA.  I wouldn't be surprised if Herm hit .350 in Salt Lake.

Guys that hit in AA are a lot closer to the major leagues than you think.

[Make Angels Great Again]

Hermosillo has a consistently garbage SB success rate, that needs reigned in because it's more detrimental than anything.