This team is in trouble - and there are no quick fixes

[Angelsjunky]

Not that we need another doom-and-gloom thread--and of course we must remember that the Angels DID just sweep the Tigers--but there are some legitimate concerns that aren't going away, and pose problems to this being a championship club. Namely:

 

- The starting pitching is mediocre at best. They don't have their best pitcher for another few weeks, and how he'll come back is a question-mark because he was throwing like a little leaguer before. CJ Wilson seems to be the pitcher he mysteriously turned to halfway through last year: a league average pitcher. Vargas and Hanson are, at best, average - maybe worse. Blanton is bad. Richards is the lone hope, but he's questionable.

 

- The superstars are not superstars. Pujols is injured, Hamilton is just terrible and looks lost, and Trout looks like he did late last season - that the league figured him out and he has still yet to adjust, and is still striking out 20% of the time. None are hitting for much power.

 

- The bullpen is....the bullpen, and hasn't really improved all that much from last year.

 

The problem is that there are no quick or obvious fixes. The team has already spent its resources - the farm system is possibly the worst in baseball and Arte Moreno has emptied his pockets and pushed the salary to the edge of the luxury tax. The only changes that can help this team are from within.

 

Now I was feeling this about a week ago and then was heartened by their performance in Detroit. Why the change? Is it so shameful to lose 2-of-3 to the Rangers? No, of course not. But the series highlighted the weaknesses above and reminded me that they aren't going away. The problems continue and the team continues to sputter. Though I think my preseason prediction of 93 wins is possible, unless there are significant improvements I see more like ~85, and both the Rangers and Athletics are both 90+ win teams so it is unlikely the Angels would make the playoffs.

 

Finally, as a sidenote, for the love of all that's holy, please Arte stop with the George Steinbrenner impersonation. It didn't work for George - in fact, it pushed the most successful franchise in baseball history into its longest World Series slump - and it won't work for you. You can't build a perennial champion by gutting the farm system and focusing on past-their-prime overpriced stars. You've got to focus on the core, the heart, which is the farm and the homegrown players it produces. Actually, the bright spots on this team right now - Trumbo, Bourjos, and Richards in particular - are homegrown. The problems and underachievers are all mercenaries, for the most part. Think about that, Mr. Moreno (and Dipoto) and think of the long-range plan.

[YouthofToday]

Totally agree -- especially with the last paragraph.

[Grigori]

I think the Angels have a long-term plan, AJ.  I read that Dipoto hired 35 new player development and scouting personnel.  That's a lot!  It's the place to start, too. It's just that it takes a long time to make the sort of changes the franchise needs. In the meantime, Moreno was willing to pony up a significant sum to win until they can revamp the organization from the bottom up. 

[Torridd]

I think the bullpen has a lot of injuries and it can turn around once Jepsen, Burnett, and Madson are healthy. I don't know if their good health is feasible, but with those arms I don't need the bullpen needs revamping.

 

I'm a bit more concerned with the starters. We need some positive continuity from Vargas and Hanson. I don't think Blanton is going to get better and we'll have to get rid of him. It was a mistake getting rid of Santana.

[Angelsjunky]

I think the Angels have a long-term plan, AJ.  I read that Dipoto hired 35 new player development and scouting personnel.  That's a lot!  It's the place to start, too. It's just that it takes a long time to make the sort of changes the franchise needs. In the meantime, Moreno was willing to pony up a significant sum to win until they can revamp the organization from the bottom up. 

 

I hear you and believe that Dipoto, in his Angelswin interview, spoke honestly about their plan - that they're trying to both rebuild the farm system and remain competitive at the same time. But the problem is that they keep paying huge sums of money for players past their prime, or that just aren't very good - and the number of prospects they've traded away has left the farm system barren, to such an extent that it will be 2-3 years at least before it is respectable and 3-5 before it is producing a large number of major league ready prospects.

 

It isn't all bad - I'm not giving up hope and think that some changes have been positive and I like Dipoto's general philosophy. I just haven't liked a lot of his actual big moves, and obviously the results have been poor (so far). But it is a gamble, a risk - and the story isn't over. If everything gels right this team could be very good and make it to the playoffs, but I really think they need at least another starter - in addition to Weaver coming back strong, Wilson improving, and at least one of Vargas, Hanson or Richards notching it up. I just don't think you can win it all without three very good starters and right now the Angels don't even have one.

[Lifetime]

Farm system strength is cyclical especially for teams that are perennially competitive. 

[Angel Oracle]

I am heartened to hear that JD is reworking the development and scouting folks, because to be blunt the farm system has sucked for several years now. Just because a team is successful up here in the 2000s does NOT mean the farm system will automatically suck subsequently. It is up to the scouts and development coaches to do their job, which judging by the lack of farm successes over the past 5-6 years was not collectively a very good job, but instead very mediocre.

Further proof that Reagins was in over his head, that Bane drafted too many high risk players, and that in general this org totally lacked direction in the Reagins years.

Now, about Moreno's lack of presence in foreign player scouting? I hope Dipoto's new hires include enough emphasis on it as well!

[Second Base]

I think this team's struggles begin and end on the mound.  In the batters box, we'll be fine.  When you have Aybar, Trout, Bourjos, Kendrick, Trumbo, Pujols and Hamilton all in the same lineup, you're bound to stumble across some runs on a pretty consistent basis.  

 

Weav will be back in a month and even if he's still throwing 85, Weav at at 85 is still an above average pitcher.  Richards is clearly a very good pitcher and will continue to be one.  Wilson is struggling with the one bad inning syndrome.  History suggests this is a trend that will dissolve on its own once he manages to find the strike zone earlier.  Vargas is a league average pitcher, nothing less, nothing more.  The same goes for Hansen.  So long term this season, I'd say the rotation will end up being average. 

 

As for the bullpen, relax, these pieces will fall into place.  We've had some developments that will stabilize this group.  DDLR is doing alright and will only get better.  Not saying he's an answer, be he'll be solid.  Jepsen should be back again in a few weeks, which could provide additional depth.  Madson coming back could be a huge addition, but again, that won't happen for a few weeks.  Maronde is going to settle and figure it out and become another effective option.  Burnett is looking really good.  Downs is finding himself.  Frieri is prone to the long ball, but still a very good reliever.  Roth has been very effective under 3 innings, last not he ran out of juice.  

 

And then there's the group of relievers that were drafted the past couple seasons.  R.J. Alvarez, once starts repeating his mechanics will find the strike zone easier and will be a HUGE addition, he's really good.  Dan Tillman's struggling with similar issues, but he's still doing alright for himself in AA.  Mike Morin was successful in college and so far he looks really good in the pros.  All three of the guys should be knocking on the door later in the season.  As for current personnel, Kohn and Carpenter need to be in AAA.  They're decent relievers that have kinks to work out. 

 

Just relax, the Angels will be fine this year. 

[Angelsjunky]

Farm system strength is cyclical especially for teams that are perennially competitive. 

 

Yes and no. Yes, it is cyclical but no, it doesn't have to go from excellent (top 5) to completely barren (bottom 5). A smart franchise will keep it relatively healthy, even in lean times. See the Red Sox or Yankees, for example.

 

[Lifetime]

Just a few years ago, the Yankees farm system was dismal. Same goes for the Red Sox. 

[Angelsjunky]

I don't know about "dismal." I think it is possible to go from top 5 to, at worst, around 15-20 - with proper tending and guiadance. The Angels went from top 5 about eight years ago and now have arguably the worst farm system in baseball. That's extreme and indicative of poor management and/or drafting.

[Jason]

Why are some assuming that Jepsen and Madsen are the pieces the pen needs? Jepsen is inconsistent and always has been. What kind of Madsen will the Halos have? IF the good Jepsen and a pre injury Madsen show up then yes, the pen just got better.

[Fontana Halo]

I'm honestly not too worried about the offense. Despite the 3 and 4 hitters arguably being the worst hitters in the lineup this year, the team is still scoring runs. They'll be fine in that regard. 

 

The pitching, however, is as atrocious as I can ever remember an Angels pitching staff being in the post-roid era. Almost every reliever is incapable of throwing strikes consistently and the starters seldom pitch into the 7th inning and beyond. 

 

To me, it just looks like the pitchers aren't coached. I think Butcher thinks that every pitcher is a guy like Lackey who can grind out his problems and recognize the adjustments he needs to make. Bud Black was an awesome pitching coach. I remember 2000-2002ish he must have made a visit to the mound every inning. And he stayed out there and talked to his guy until the ump would have to physically remove him. The pitchers were like his kids learning to ride a bike with training wheels. He would walk them through every little detail and intervene at every possible opportunity. He was hands-on as hell but the guys that came up around that time who had any capability eventually became certified and reliable big league pitchers - Washburn, K-Rod, Lackey, hell even Ramon Ortiz had a few good years. 

 

Butcher is the opposite. Very hands-off. Only goes to the mound to talk to the pitcher after he's been shelled and ready to come out, and the games I go to that I've sat on the first base side, when I look into the dugout, I've never ever seen him talking to a pitcher, he's usually at Scioscia's side socializing. 

 

I know it's a pipe dream, but I would be beyond thrilled if somehow this organization got Bud Black back. 

[Jason]

I'm not so quick to point the finger at Butcher. He may not be the best pitching coach but he's being asked to polish a turd.

[Reveille1984]

Well, other than those two coming back healthy what else can we hope for?  Downs and Frieri look to be fine, and Burnett has been solid as well.  The main problem is still starting pitching, not the bullpen.  Any BP that has to pitch 3-4-5 innings every single night is going to get worn ragged even with their best guys available, unless you're the A's where it seems any nobody can come up and post a sub 2.00 ERA. 

 

If players were healthy and the starters were even league average we wouldn't be seeing guys like Carpenter, Lowe, Roth and De La Rosa having to start games and be depended upon to pitch multiple innings.  

[Fontana Halo]

I'm not so quick to point the finger at Butcher. He may not be the best pitching coach but he's being asked to polish a turd.

I see where you're coming from. I will not argue with you that the majority of the pitchers on the staff are below average major league pitchers.

 

That being said the pitchers currently on the team ARE capable of throwing strikes and ARE capable of learning the importance of not walking guys. They wouldn't have gotten half way through the minor league system if they weren't. 

[bloodbrother]

The issue with his org in the present and future is pitching. How they fix the depth in this area will determine whether they stay as contenders or fade back behind the pack. Oak/Tex/Sea ALL have a ton of pitching depth going forward

[Lifetime]

So they've forgotten what they learned and they need Butcher to remind them? 

[Fontana Halo]

So they've forgotten what they learned and they need Butcher to remind them? 

Pretty much. A lot of them get caught up trying to be too cute and nibble at the plate. When you do that you're less likely to throw strikes and more likely to lose velocity. 

[Lifetime]

These are Major League pitchers we're talking about here. Their issues are not forgetting what their objectives are or not having a coach remind them of those objectives. 

[tdawg87]

These are Major League pitchers we're talking about here. Their issues are not forgetting what their objectives are or not having a coach remind them of those objectives.

Then why have coaches?

[Docwaukee]

I see where you're coming from. I will not argue with you that the majority of the pitchers on the staff are below average major league pitchers.

 

That being said the pitchers currently on the team ARE capable of throwing strikes and ARE capable of learning the importance of not walking guys. They wouldn't have gotten half way through the minor league system if they weren't. 

I'm not so sure that's true.  Delarosa, Kohn, Carp, Lowe, Jep, have all had command issues in the past and still do.  They can throw strikes, but we have seen what happens when they are not quality strikes.  They got away with it more in the minors but major league hitters punish guys who don't command the zone. 

 

It's hard to make Butcher wholly responsible for the pitching performance of this team as they generally lack talent, yet they are underachieving nonetheless and may need a different voice or someone to impart a bit of a different philosophy.   Not saying it will work, but it could have just enough of an effect to get these guys going in the right direction. 

[Docwaukee]

Coaches have an effect, and I am sure it can vary pretty drastically from player to player.  To turn Fernando Rodney of 2011 into the 2012 version is a total anomaly and completely unrealistic.  It is, however, not unreasonable to expect at least a couple of guys to get better than they were and help the team.  It would be very hard to say that Butcher has not done that yet it's also impossible to know whether he's had a negative effect on any given player.  We just don't have enough information to make an informed opinion from our end.

 

I will trust the FO to make that decision just as they did with Hatcher.  If they think he's no longer effective, they will make a change.  If Butcher ends up here for the whole season then it would mean JD thought his effect was still positive and that is good enough for me.

[Lifetime]

Then why have coaches?

You think the coachs' jobs are to remind professional players what their objectives are? 

[rageous]

Then why have coaches?

These same people say Scioscia is one of the best managers but when they lose it's because the players suck.

So if the manager can't help players play better what's the purpose of having one?