Why the Angels will have a top 5 offense (by the numbers)

[Docwaukee]

So the offense was quite good in 2014 and quite bad in 2015.  

 

It stands to reason that 2016 will be somewhere in the middle.  Some even speculate that the offense is going to be pretty bad.  

 

Well, if you think that, you are wrong.  We are going to have one of the best offenses in baseball for the 2016 season and here is why as predicted by the numbers:  

 

First, we have to look to the past.  There have been a few lineup changes over the last couple of seasons, but by and large, it's not hugely different.  

 

I am using a lineup optimizer tool where it's plug and play with obp, and slg.  then it spits out the best lineup, but it also good at giving an estimated performance relative to estimated numbers.  So I estimate that it's extremely accurate and will predict outcomes with in 3%.  If I am off by more than 3%, you can let me know at the end of the season and I will like your post.  

 

BTW, here is the link for the optimizer

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py

 

So let's do a little accuracy testing.  

 

2011

predicted: 679

actual: 667

optimal: 696

 

 

2012

predicted: 789

actual: 767

optimal: 795

 

2013

predicted: 750

actual: 733

optimal: 759
 

2014

predicted runs: 727

actual runs: 773

optima: 731

 

2015

predicted: 663

actual: 661

optimal: 675

 

so from the above data, every season had an actual runs scored that was pretty close to what would be predicted for the numbers the actually put up with the exception of 2014.  A clear outlier.  And from what we saw by watching the games, this certainly seems to ring true.  

 

So let's predict 2016.  

But we need to make a few concessions first. 

- your top 9 players give you about 75-80% of your at bats and the other 20-25% go to the rest.  So you can't just plug your top nine starter in and expect to get that production all year.  With some variability, the 25% from the rest is going to be near replacement level.  

 

as an example, our top 9 players from 2015 gave us 23.9 oWAR and the rest was good for -3.9 oWAR.  

in 2013 it was 25.5 oWAR from our top 9 but we got 4.0 oWAR from the rest.  

 

I used 2013 as the comp for 2015 to show what a difference depth can make.  In this case, it was almost 8 wins on offense.  We scored about 70 more runs in 2013 than we did in 2015 so pretty darn close.

 

I did some math behind the scenes and a replacement level player probably gets you about a .600 ops.  

 

So let's make some predictions:

 

I am assuming career averages in terms of obp/slg with some minor adjustments that I will explain as I go

 

Escobar - ..350/.385.  Leaving him at his career.  He's had some up and down years, but overall I think it's a fair range

Nava - .350/.383.  His career obp is .358, but I knocked him down a few point because of his age and his horrible first half last year

Trout - .400/.570.  I bumped him up a shade on the slg side because he's just showing more power these days

Pujols - .320/.460.  Can't use anywhere near his career number.  I used his avg halo numbers with a slightly lower obp and slg.  

Calhoun - .320/.435.  I think his career numbers are fair.  He's entering his prime and I think he has a better year than last

Cron - .300/.450.  Cron is tough.  I was pretty conservative but I think he will do better than I estimated so that would be gravy

Simmons - .320/.350.  I think Simmons is gonna do a little better than his career numbers overall but mostly on the obp side

Perez - .320/.350.  Perez is gonna take a step forward with more at bats this year.  Not a huge one, but he's gonna get on base more.  

Gia - .320/.380,  I gave him what he did last year even though I think he'll improve

 

the remaining 20% includes guys like Gentry, Soto, and Choi as well as whoever else will be filling in.  Since guys get injured or just don't play well, that 20% get's a .600 ops or .275/.325.  You can just decrease everyone across the board as guys like Trout, Simmons, Calhoun, and Pujols will get far more at bats than the rest.  

 

The most conservative estimate that I ran gave the following

predicted: 723 runs

optimal: 739

this is with a .600 ops bench factored into the equation.  

 

Giving the bench a little more credit:

predicted 763

optimal: 777

 

I think we will fall between the two and end up around 745 runs which would put us in the top 5 relative to last years numbers.  

 

I know this seems like kooky talk with the offseason we had in that we didn't see any flash upgrades to the offense, but it makes some sense in that even with conservative estimates for the bench, we still upgraded considerably just by losing joyce and the other that compromised the band of suck rotating through left field.  We have 14 players that included joyce and featherston give us -3.6 oWAR.  

 

Another thing to mention is that none of the above takes into account our defensive upgrade at SS.  

 

So there it is.  I am on record that we will score 745 runs.  Enjoy.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[QuinlansMinion]

If Calhoun bats behind Trout I think its possible this team will be better offensively this year.  Scioscia has been very stubborn in his ways in keeping Trout behind Calhoun, when all the numbers show that Calhoun should obviously be batting behind Trout.  

[ukyah]

you're predicting +84 runs from last year. basically a 1/2 run more per game.

 

i know a 1/2 run per game doesn't sound like a lot, but it really is. hopefully, you're right.

[Second Base]

Very aggressive, but good post.

[Chuck]

If Nava keeps this up and Pujols since he's healthy performs at a higher level, this team could be scary good on the offensive side. 

 

Trout, Pujols and Calhoun haven't had guys like Escobar and Nava (both with good OBP's) hitting in front of them.

[WeatherWonk]

I assume that line of players is your preferred lineup. Is that the optimized  lineup generated by the optimizer? I did not use it. If so, I can't believe it would put our highest OBP guy at 3rd, instead of 1st or 2nd, irrespective of Trout's slugging.

 

ANY "best lineup" should have Trout batting 2nd; the best compromise between his OBP and his slugging. I also like 2nd and it's ability to limit Trout's basestealing, since a high OBP, low speed guy (like Nava or Escobar) will limit Trout's ability to steal bases, somewhat. I dont like the idea of our MVP, weighing 230 or so, stealing bases. He's just to valuable to take those chances.

 

The only exceptions would be late in games with us down by a run or tied with Trout on second with no outs or one out or on first with one or two outs. Maybe even no outs, in that last case. 

 

Making a lineup out with Trout batting second is not an easy task. Where do Nava/Gentry and Escobar go. I also like Calhoun hitting behind Trout.

 

BTW, I am not nearly as optimistic of our offense as you are. There is a strong possibility that last year was an outlier year for Escobar, offensively. And while I have always known Nava can hit, he just hasn't done it for a prolonged period for quite a while now. If we get the kind of years out of them that you are hoping for, then YES, our offense will be greatly improved.

 

Cron is also a bit question mark. Simmons figures to provide slightly less offense than Aybar, but Aybar always had the potential to have a year where he hits .280 or better. Not sure Simmons has that potential.

 

Gia had a good year, offensively. Can he continue it? I honestly dont know.

Edited March 16, 2016 by WeatherWonk

[Troll Daddy]

You take any teams big bat out of the lineup the team goes down.

I like what I see so far this ST. I'm thinking somewhere around 777 😎

[Angelsjunky]

Haha, you're awesome, Doc. I'll split the difference between your prediction of 745 and last year's output of 661 and say they'll score somewhere in the 700-720 range.

 

It is interesting to me how, in some ways, Daniel Nava has become the key to the offense. If he can get on-base at a decent clip, all of a sudden the Angels have a lineup. I suppose Escobar to a lesser degree - if these two can manage .350 OBPs, we're in business. Cron is also looking like he could be a key player, but if he doesn't improve the Angels have Choi and Kubitza to fall back on. If Nava doesn't work out...Gentry? Ortega?

 

If Calhoun bounces back to 2013-14 numbers in 2015 playing time, that will be a solid boost.

[VariousCrap]

Pujols since he's healthy performs at a higher level

 

 

 

Not. Going. To. Happen.

[VariousCrap]

It is interesting to me how, in some ways, Daniel Nava has become the key to the offense. If he can get on-base at a decent clip, all of a sudden the Angels have a lineup. I suppose Escobar to a lesser degree - if these two can manage .350 OBPs, we're in business. 

 

 

 

I'd add Johnny G to that as well.  Gio had a very good OBP in the nine spot last year (.382), if he can continue with that this year and then you have Escobar and Nava get on-base at their normal rate, all of a sudden, the bases are packed for Trout on a consistent basis.  That could be huge.

Edited March 16, 2016 by VariousCrap

[Docwaukee]

I just want to remind everyone that this isn't my model.  I just plugged in some numbers.  

 

The model was pretty much spot on within about 5% for most seasons that I checked.  

 

I used some fairly conservative numbers for our players and then I averaged in a .600 ops from our bench for 20% of the total production.  

 

It's more of an indicator as to just how bad matt joyce, taylor featherston, and the collection others were that were manning our bench.  It was a statistical aberration as far as I'm concerned.  To have a collection of awful being that far below replacement?  It's hard to do.  

[Blarg]

There is no way Giavotella creates a .380 obp the whole year. I would be more inclined to take it down to around .330 at best for an entire season.

[Stradling]

Read it again Eric. He's predicting a .320 OBP and a .380 slugging.

[VariousCrap]

Johnny G having an OBP of .320-.330 and then Escobar and Nava doing their normal .350 range would be incredible for Trout.  That is something this team just didn't do for him last season.

[ScottT]

The Angels will definitely have a top 5 offense

Top 5 in the AL West

[bloodbrother]

Nava needs to be more like Simmons and save his hits for the regular season. I feel like he's doing way too much this spring and now he'll bat .180 for the month of April

[Troll Daddy]

Nava needs to be more like Simmons and save his hits for the regular season. I feel like he's doing way too much this spring and now he'll bat .180 for the month of April

Can you imagine what this place would be like if Nava had a shitty ST?

[Docwaukee]

Can you imagine what this place would be like if Nava had a shitty ST?

um.  the same.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

The Angels will definitely have a top 5 offense

Top 5 in the AL West

love it, lol

Great write up as usual doc. Im not as warm and fuzzy as you, but, youre far smarter than me at this stuff and youre one of the guys i always look to get a take on, then pass it on as my own thoughts at work.

To those new residents/refugees from the old board, doc is one of the guys on here who knows what hes talking about. This world would probably be a better place if he stopped fooling around with something as useless as medicine and went to work for something meaningful, like baseball prospectus.

Im hesitant because im not sold on nava, and escobar is a big ? Based on the league switch and the curse of playing 3B for the angels. But, if we get the few years ago nava, and escobar can be a .340ish obp guy, i agree, thats leaps forward from last year. If cron can piggyback that and resemble last summers version, we should score some runs.

[AngelsWin.com]

By Jason Sinner, AngelsWin.com Contributor - 

So the offense was quite good in 2014 and quite bad in 2015.  

It stands to reason that 2016 will be somewhere in the middle.  Some even speculate that the offense is going to be pretty bad.  

Well, if you think that, you are wrong.  We are going to have one of the best offenses in baseball for the 2016 season and here is why as predicted by the numbers:  

First, we have to look to the past.  There have been a few lineup changes over the last couple of seasons, but by and large, it's not hugely different.  

I am using a lineup optimizer tool where it's plug and play with obp, and slg.  then it spits out the best lineup, but it also good at giving an estimated performance relative to estimated numbers.  So I estimate that it's extremely accurate and will predict outcomes with in 3%.  If I am off by more than 3%, you can let me know at the end of the season and I will like your post.  

BTW, here is the link for the optimizer

http://www.baseballm...neupAnalysis.py

So let's do a little accuracy testing.  

2011

Predicted Runs: 679

Actual Runs: 667

Optimal Runs: 696

2012

Predicted: 789

Actual: 767

Optimal: 795

2013

Predicted: 750

Actual: 733

Optimal: 759

2014

Predicted: 727

Actual: 773

Optimal: 731

2015

Predicted: 663

Actual: 661

Optimal: 675

So from the above data, every season had an actual runs scored that was pretty close to what would be predicted for the numbers the actually put up with the exception of 2014.  A clear outlier.  And from what we saw by watching the games, this certainly seems to ring true.  

So let's predict 2016! 

But we need to make a few concessions first. Your top 9 players give you about 75-80% of your at bats and the other 20-25% go to the rest.  So you can't just plug your top nine starter in and expect to get that production all year.  With some variability, the 25% from the rest is going to be near replacement level.  

As an example, our top 9 players from 2015 gave us 23.9 oWAR and the rest was good for -3.9 oWAR.  In 2013 it was 25.5 oWAR from our top 9 but we got 4.0 oWAR from the rest.  

I used 2013 as the comp for 2015 to show what a difference depth can make.  In this case, it was almost 8 wins on offense.  We scored about 70 more runs in 2013 than we did in 2015 so pretty darn close.

I did some math behind the scenes and a replacement level player probably gets you about a .600 ops. 

So let's make some predictions:

I am assuming career averages in terms of OBP/SLG with some minor adjustments that I will explain as I go.

Escobar - ..350/.385.  Leaving him at his career.  He's had some up and down years, but overall I think it's a fair range

Nava - .350/.383.  His career obp is .358, but I knocked him down a few point because of his age and his horrible first half last year

Trout - .400/.570.  I bumped him up a shade on the SLG pct. side because he's just showing more power these days

Pujols - .320/.460.  Can't use anywhere near his career number.  I used his average numbers with the Halos with a slightly lower OBP and SLG.  

Calhoun - .320/.435.  I think his career numbers are fair.  He's entering his prime and I think he has a better year than last.

Cron - .300/.450. Cron is tough. I was pretty conservative but I think he will do better than I estimated so that would be gravy.

Simmons - .320/.350.  I think Simmons is gonna do a little better than his career numbers overall but mostly on the OBP side.

Perez - .320/.350.  Perez is gonna take a step forward with more at bats this year.  Not a huge one, but he's gonna get on base more.

  

Giavotella - .320/.380,  I gave him what he did last year even though I think he'll improve.

The remaining 20% includes guys like Gentry, Soto, and Choi as well as whoever else will be filling in.  Since guys get injured or just don't play well, that 20% get's a .600 ops or .275/.325.  You can just decrease everyone across the board as guys like Trout, Simmons, Calhoun, and Pujols will get far more at bats than the rest.  

The most conservative estimate that I ran gave the following for the 2016 campaign. 

Predicted: 723 runs

Optimal: 739 runs

*This is with a .600 ops bench factored into the equation.  

Giving the bench a little more credit:

Predicted Runs: 763

Optimal: 777

I think we will fall between the two and end up around 745 runs which would put us in the top 5 relative to last years numbers.  

I know this seems like kooky talk with the offseason we had in that we didn't see any flash upgrades to the offense, but it makes some sense in that even with conservative estimates for the bench, we still upgraded considerably just by losing joyce and the other that compromised the band of suck rotating through left field.  We have 14 players that included joyce and featherston give us -3.6 oWAR.  

Another thing to mention is that none of the above takes into account our defensive upgrade at SS.  

So there it is.  I am on record that we will score 745 runs.  Enjoy.  

View the full article

[Angel Oracle]

Now it seems that maybe the weakest link in 2016 could be the backend of the rotation.

After Richards, Santiago, and Heaney, it's anyone's guess how 2016 will work out in the rotation, and Santiago and Heaney are #3/#4's at this point in time.

Wilson = question mark through April?

Weaver = running on fumes?

Tropeano = lack of MLB innings so far in any season.

Shoe = better fit in the pen?

Skaggs = needing to be brought along slowly? 

 

We will need a top third of AL offense AND defense, PLUS solid relief pitching, to overcome the rotation question marks. 

[Chuck]

Well done, Docta! 

 

The edited version that's on the Blog is posted above. 

[Docwaukee]

Well done, Docta! 

 

The edited version that's on the Blog is posted above. 

Thanks Chuck!!  Was fun to write this one.  I was worried that I was gonna plug in my numbers and the result wouldn't be what I wanted.  Especially with the conservative approach I felt I was taking.  

[jsnpritchett]

So the offense was quite good in 2014 and quite bad in 2015.  

 

It stands to reason that 2016 will be somewhere in the middle.  Some even speculate that the offense is going to be pretty bad.  

 

Well, if you think that, you are wrong.  We are going to have one of the best offenses in baseball for the 2016 season and here is why as predicted by the numbers:  

 

First, we have to look to the past.  There have been a few lineup changes over the last couple of seasons, but by and large, it's not hugely different.  

 

I am using a lineup optimizer tool where it's plug and play with obp, and slg.  then it spits out the best lineup, but it also good at giving an estimated performance relative to estimated numbers.  So I estimate that it's extremely accurate and will predict outcomes with in 3%.  If I am off by more than 3%, you can let me know at the end of the season and I will like your post. 

 

So there it is.  I am on record that we will score 745 runs.  Enjoy.  

 

If we're a top 5 offense in all of MLB this season, I will gladly donate $1,000 to a charity of your choice.  I appreciate the work you did, but I just don't see it happening.  This is one post that I'll be happy to be wrong about: if I'm wrong, and you're right, we'll all have a really fun Angels team to watch this season, and some charity will get some dough. 

[Chuck]

If we're a top 5 offense in all of MLB this season, I will gladly donate $1,000 to a charity of your choice.  I appreciate the work you did, but I just don't see it happening.  This is one post that I'll be happy to be wrong about: if I'm wrong, and you're right, we'll all have a really fun Angels team to watch this season, and some charity will get some dough. 

 

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