White Sox will only go three years for Cespedes/Gordon

[Angelfaninidaho]

Uhhh what exactly are you reading? He was tied for dead last among second basemen in DRS with -12. His UZR was 2nd to last. His DEF was also 2nd to last.

 

Yes, he was godawful.

 Yeah, of course there were 15 or 16 other 2B players that don't qualify so where was he compared to all the teams you aren't paying attention to? 

[HaloMilliVanilli]

I wasn't being lazy when I wrote Cowart/Kubitza.  Both are potentially capable major leaguers with small (to zero) sample sizes.  I have a boner for none of our players.  I simply take what we have and imagine what could work if things play out from a positive viewpoint and what is best from a team perspective.  We have Cowart, Kubitza, Escobar who can all play 3B, and Escobar, Gia, Pennington, and Kubitza that could all play 2B.  To me, if you can get O and D production from an average or better 3B (Cowart/Kubitza) while getting average or better O and D from Escobar at 2B, that is the way I'd go.  Now go to spring training and let it play itself out.  If the youngsters flame-out or are outplayed, at that point the best case is Escobar at 3B and Gia at 2B,.....and I'm fine with that lineup.

 

Also, excuse me for posting Pujols fifth.  Move him to fourth, Cespedes to fifth or sixth or who gives a f**k.  The lineup 1-6 is deeper.  That was my point.

[tomsred]

Uhhh what exactly are you reading? He was tied for dead last among second basemen in DRS with -12. His UZR was 2nd to last. His DEF was also 2nd to last.

 

Yes, he was godawful.

 

The only wrinkle of hope in all of that is if Gia's problems to some degree were caused by his double vision problem, and that having it under control will improve his standing some.  I guess we will find out in Spring Training.  I hope that Pennington, and as a long shot Kubitza can do a good job of backing up the position.  I'd rather Escobar and Cowart worry about 3B at this point.

[Angelsjunky]

Uhhh what exactly are you reading? He was tied for dead last among second basemen in DRS with -12. His UZR was 2nd to last. His DEF was also 2nd to last.

 

Yes, he was godawful.

 

My point is merely that "godawful" might be a bit strong. Bad or very bad, certainly, but godawful is like Robinson Cano in 2005.

[Angelsjunky]

To the guys that follow the stats real closely. What kind of WAR do you guys think Cowart puts up if he only hits .230 with a decent walk rate, but very good defense?

 

My guess is that if he hits something like .230/.300/.350 with very good defense, he puts up a 2 WAR season.

Edited January 2, 2016 by Angelsjunky

[Blarg]

Mmmm feel that butthurt. Somebody's favorite little guy isn't loved as much as he wishes he was.

 

I don't that is it, Tdawg. I think the camp that doesn't like Giavotella because his one full year of playing showed some warts on defense has them almost rabid in every thread about replacing the guy. But the replacements are kind of ridiculous.

 

Escobar has never really played the right side of the infield so is expected is that a 33 year old "rookie" learns that position in one spring training and exceeds the combined production of other infield options. If you drop Escobar at 2nd you've committed to one of two rookies at third. So now you've chosen to put a player out of position up the middle and put a complete unknown to sink or swim on 3rd.

 

It is irresponsible fanboy/fangraph thinking that just take all the candidates and scramble their order and expect a better result. It is taking a bridge too far saying you can have trainees at two infield positions while you still have a possible hole at 1st base while Pujols recovers.

 

For me it is not about being a fanboy of Giavotella, although I do believe he has a higher upside than last season, but more of less of a fan of having Escobar replacing him while learning another way to move towards a play at 33 and blowing up because of age and muscle memory. Not when he has already logged and full season at 3rd.

 

Old dawgs, new tricks? No thanks. Let's just apprentice one of Cowart/Kubitza later in the season to take the position from Escobar in 2017. It's going to be difficult enough to create wins without throwing too many new positions at new players.

[Angelfaninidaho]

I don't that is it, Tdawg. I think the camp that doesn't like Giavotella because his one full year of playing showed some warts on defense has them almost rabid in every thread about replacing the guy. But the replacements are kind of ridiculous.

 

Escobar has never really played the right side of the infield so is expected is that a 33 year old "rookie" learns that position in one spring training and exceeds the combined production of other infield options. If you drop Escobar at 2nd you've committed to one of two rookies at third. So now you've chosen to put a player out of position up the middle and put a complete unknown to sink or swim on 3rd.

 

It is irresponsible fanboy/fangraph thinking that just take all the candidates and scramble their order and expect a better result. It is taking a bridge too far saying you can have trainees at two infield positions while you still have a possible hole at 1st base while Pujols recovers.

 

For me it is not about being a fanboy of Giavotella, although I do believe he has a higher upside than last season, but more of less of a fan of having Escobar replacing him while learning another way to move towards a play at 33 and blowing up because of age and muscle memory. Not when he has already logged and full season at 3rd.

 

Old dawgs, new tricks? No thanks. Let's just apprentice one of Cowart/Kubitza later in the season to take the position from Escobar in 2017. It's going to be difficult enough to create wins without throwing too many new positions at new players.

Exactly this..  And Escobar has an option for 2017, right?  Furthermore, using all of Tdong87's defensive fangraph stats, the following players are as bad or worse than Gia..  Zobrist, Kendrick, Owens, Lawrie, Walker, Shoop, Cano.  Pretty good company.

[arch stanton]

What we do know for sure is that Escobar has made a living as a major league infielder. He has hands, footwork, and arm strength to play 2B. I don't think it's foregone that Gia has all those tools at his disposal.

[Blarg]

33, new position. This isn't like shifting from center to a corner outfield position. Up the middle is the hardest to play. He has shown he can play the left side, has experience on the left side. Unless there is really compelling evidence that one of Cowart or Kubitza is a bonifide 3rd baseman you are ****ing up the infield to marginally improve defense at 2nd base while vastly changing the stability at 3rd.

[Angelfaninidaho]

33, new position. This isn't like shifting from center to a corner outfield position. Up the middle is the hardest to play. He has shown he can play the left side, has experience on the left side. Unless there is really compelling evidence that one of Cowart or Kubitza is a bonifide 3rd baseman you are ****ing up the infield to marginally improve defense at 2nd base while vastly changing the stability at 3rd.

Bingo

[GrittyVeterans]

Kubitza is not a Major League player. You have to have some sort of specialty skill to make it in this league. He doesn't play good defense, he doesn't hit or get on base particularly well, he doesn't hit for power, and he doesn't have great speed. That's a AAAA player or a bench piece in a good year. He certainly isn't athletic enough to handle 2nd base either. He should grab an outfield glove and be working vigorously at trying to become an option in left field

 

Cowart at least does one thing well. He's got serious ability on the defensive side of the ball, which is why I'm a tad disappointed that we brought in Yunel to play 3rd

 

Escobar/Giavotella just doesn't excite me. Two poor defenders playing important positions...with Cron at first base...that's an unmitigated disaster waiting to happen

[NrM]

33, new position. This isn't like shifting from center to a corner outfield position. Up the middle is the hardest to play. He has shown he can play the left side, has experience on the left side. Unless there is really compelling evidence that one of Cowart or Kubitza is a bonifide 3rd baseman you are ****ing up the infield to marginally improve defense at 2nd base while vastly changing the stability at 3rd.

better off sending cowart back to AA and kubitza to salt lake tbh.

I don't think they've proven themselves capable yet.

[Blarg]

Neither do I and the winter layoff is not where they will improve so it would be advantageous to put them in the minors to raise their game instead of watch from the bench. Mid season or later you bring one of them up to compete a little with Escobar to see if the Angels need to pick up his 2017 option.

[Stradling]

Kubitza is not a Major League player. You have to have some sort of specialty skill to make it in this league. He doesn't play good defense, he doesn't hit or get on base particularly well, he doesn't hit for power, and he doesn't have great speed. That's a AAAA player or a bench piece in a good year. He certainly isn't athletic enough to handle 2nd base either. He should grab an outfield glove and be working vigorously at trying to become an option in left field

Cowart at least does one thing well. He's got serious ability on the defensive side of the ball, which is why I'm a tad disappointed that we brought in Yunel to play 3rd

Escobar/Giavotella just doesn't excite me. Two poor defenders playing important positions...with Cron at first base...that's an unmitigated disaster waiting to happen

I'm not that excited about Kubitza but you seem to selling him short by a bit. He's probably average defensively at third. He has a good but not great hit tool. Where you really sell him short is his on base skills. He had limited at bats in the majors and sporadic playing time, so I'm not positive how he will do and neither do you. In the minors he has a career .375 OBP., so it's not all that out of the realm of possibility he could have that translate to a .330-.350 OBP here. Not everyone has immediate success in the majors.

[Second Base]

Kubitza's floor is .240/.320 30 DB 5 HR with slightly below average defense. His ceiling is .290/.380 40 DB 15 HR with above average defense. You're looking at something between a replacement level player and a 4-win player. I think in a all likelihood he settles in as a 3-win player. Something like .260/.340 35 DB 10 HR and above average defense.

Cowart's floor is .200/.270 with 30 DB 5 HR and good defense. His ceiling is .270/.340 40 DB 25 HR and the premier defensive 3B in baseball. Somewhere between replacement level and a 5-6 win player. I think he settles in as a 2-3 win player, like .250/.315 30 DB 15 HR and elite defense.

The end result between the two, choosing between OBP and defense. In our current alignment, the OBP option is a better fit, but in a year or two, the defense might be a better fit. If it were me, Kubitza would be playing 3B in the majors, while Cowart would be at 3B in the minors. Once he proves tol good for AAA, Cowart would be our 3B and Kubitza would move to either 2B or LF as a Daniel Murphy type.

[Angelsjunky]

Good post, Scotty, although those ranges are so extreme as to almost be pointless. For instance, I cant see how Cowart's floor is 5 HR - certainly he'll be good for 10-15 HR, even if he never actualizes his full offensive potential. I also think Kubitza has a bit more power potential, even if it shows up in a few years.

[Second Base]

Good post, Scotty, although those ranges are so extreme as to almost be pointless. For instance, I cant see how Cowart's floor is 5 HR - certainly he'll be good for 10-15 HR, even if he never actualizes his full offensive potential. I also think Kubitza has a bit more power potential, even if it shows up in a few years.

I know exactly what you mean, and to explain those two, I used differing methods. For Cowart, I noted that even with his relatively BABIP filled tear in AAA, the HR's weren't present. The GB% and FB% were static, the main number that increased for him was his LD%. It rose to career levels and was 6% higher than the league average, which is considerable. I get the feeling that the success of his bat will show less of an output of power, and more in batting average. But if the BA isn't present, as is the scenario in his floor, the lack of power is still present. The only way I see Kaleb's HR power returning is if his comfort level with his new (old) approach becomes so second nature, he may begin to add more loft to his swing. I don't like it when hitters do this, I'd prefer the hard contact type of HR's, but we've seen it done successfully before. Physically, Kaleb looks done maturing, he's already so strong,noes grown into his man-body.

With Kubitza, it comes down to scouting. He's strong and there is definite loft in his swing. It's clear as day evident. Quite frankly, the first time I watched him in person, I openly wondered how no one has predicted consistent 25 HR years from him. The ball jumps off his bat. But as I watched him more, I began to realize why his HR numbers never skyrocketed. It isn't for lack of power or the incorrect swing, it's the approach. When Kyle drills one, and I mean really gets into it, he drives the ball to CF. His power isn't to the pull side or even oppo. It's left-center, borderline dead-center. And the way he gets into it, it's a very Hamilton-type of connection. It isn't the line drive type, but the high fly ball type. I saw this at least a half dozen times and three times in person. But that's the deepest part of almost any park, Angel Stadium included.

Kyle's body is matured, he won't be getting a ton stronger, and this is his type of power. He can glide on the bases with relative ease, so DB's and triples should be frequent. The end result here, I think Kyle might hit 50 doubles a year if he's fully locked in. But I question whether he'll ever hit more than 10 HR's with any regularity.

[Stradling]

Scotty, am I wrong with my thought that defense is something that doesn't really slump? Guys that are elite defensively are pretty consistent with that. All I've ever heard is Cowart is an elite defensive player. So I would think his floor would be great defense bad bat.

[Angelsjunky]

Stradling, in general a few things don't slump: defense, plate discipline, and speed. This is why high walk hitters are so valuable - even when they aren't hitting, they're still getting on base.

[Second Base]

Scotty, am I wrong with my thought that defense is something that doesn't really slump? Guys that are elite defensively are pretty consistent with that. All I've ever heard is Cowart is an elite defensive player. So I would think his floor would be great defense bad bat.

It is my opinion that we're all human and as a result, we aren't perfect, but generally speaking, elite defenders, even when they slump, get it right 90 times out of 100.

With Cowart, the only way I envision him being less than elite is if his body mass significantly decreases his range. Defensively, range is his weakest point, where he's merely "very good" at the time being, as opposed to the "great" I value his glove, arm, footwork and athleticism. But since range is the single most important factor when evaluating a defender, it's something worth monitoring with Cowart. It's possible that as he gets older, and potentially bigger (I don't see it happening for several years, he looks matured already, so don't take it too seriously), he loses the ability to get to many balls and merely turns into a good defender.

But Cowart, I'm fairly certain that aside from losing mobility from injury, aging or mass, will end up being one of the best defensive 3B of his generation. Now we just need the bat to catch up so that people will take notice.

[NrM]

Kubitza's floor ceiling is .240/.320 

Cowart's floor ceiling is .200 .230/.270.300

fixed for you

Edited January 3, 2016 by Poozy

[Stradling]

fixed for you

Why? Because of what they did their first time around? What did you think Trout was after he hit .225 his first call up?

[NrM]

Why? Because of what they did their first time around? What did you think Trout was after he hit .225 his first call up?

 

I still thought trout would be very good.

Then again, I also thought Brandon Wood would turn things around......

 

I just think Cowart and Kubitza kind of suck. 

Edited January 3, 2016 by Poozy

[Stradling]

I can totally see why you would say that watching Kubitza last year. I don't remember him having a single moment. Cowart on the other hand after his first handful of games put together very solid at bats. He also showed some good pop, and played great defense.

[Stradling]

Cowart's OBP was 80 points higher than his average. So if he hits .240 with some pop, with his defense could be a very valuable player.