Angels are "in the mix" for Yoenis Cespedes

[Stradling]

Yes and neither of those outfielder are the same age as Bobby was. I wouldn't mind a one year deal, but then you just over pay for them next year in a weaker free agent class with still a need for a LFer.

[QuinlansMinion]

Cespedes has proven he can hit in bad parks, like Oakland and Citi Field. I think he definitely falls off in a minimum of 3 years though. Hes already shown signs of breaking down. But given how little success we have had in the last 5 years, ill take anything. I dont think this organization will ever make smart decisions so my hope is we can put just enough talent around Trout to get in and get lucky in October.

[Guest]

Cespedes has proven he can hit in bad parks, like Oakland and Citi Field. I think he definitely falls off in a minimum of 3 years though. Hes already shown signs of breaking down. But given how little success we have had in the last 5 years, ill take anything. I dont think this organization will ever make smart decisions so my hope is we can put just enough talent around Trout to get in and get lucky in October.

Seriously. We'll take anyone at this point.

[AngelsFanSince86]

5 years to Cespedes only takes him to age 34.

Cespedes only has 4 full MLB seasons under his belt, plus much shorter Cuban League seasons.

It's not like he's played a ton of games already.

 

5 years/$100 million sounds about right.

 

I don't think it works that way for position players.  It's not like pitchers who log X amount of innings.  Position players usually get better with age, but their peak corresponds with their physical prime, which is 27-32 for just about everyone.  He could get better, but could just as easily get worse after only a couple of years making the majority of his contract a bust.

[nate]

It works that way for all athletes.  The more time they have logged playing the more likely they are to be injured.

[Ohtaniland]

But, but, but this works against my narrative.....

But it's exciting to be in the mix which kinda means that we're not.

[Docwaukee]

OPS+ takes park factor into account.  OBP doesn't mean anything if you don't have someone to drive them in.

career ops +

 

Cespedes - 122

Upton - 121

 

career wRC+

 

Cespedes - 121

Upton - 121

 

I think you know that I know what ops+ is Nate.  

 

And obp always means something.  Regardless of who is behind them, someone with a better obp in front of them increases your run scoring opportunities. 

[DoubleOffTheWall]

If they are so similar (aside from age), then one of the determining factors has to be the draft pick compensation, which I believe is attached to Upton only right?

[Lou]

But RBIs don't matter...

[nate]

career ops +

 

Cespedes - 122

Upton - 121

 

career wRC+

 

Cespedes - 121

Upton - 121

 

I think you know that I know what ops+ is Nate.  

 

And obp always means something.  Regardless of who is behind them, someone with a better obp in front of them increases your run scoring opportunities. 

 

Right... and slugging means you are more likely to drive someone in.  Angels need someone to drive Trout in.  They don't have a lot of guys that can drive in runs.

[tdawg87]

Right... and slugging means you are more likely to drive someone in. Angels need someone to drive Trout in. They don't have a lot of guys that can drive in runs.

And they don't have anybody who can get on base either.

[nate]

True.  Still would rather have someone to drive in runs instead of another player on base to not get driven in.

[Stradling]

Or they need guys for Trout to drive in.

[Docwaukee]

Right... and slugging means you are more likely to drive someone in.  Angels need someone to drive Trout in.  They don't have a lot of guys that can drive in runs.

slg and obp have a r-squared correlate of about .9.  they are essentially equal as it pertains to runs.  

 

ops+/ops is better at .95.  

 

since both guys have about the same ops+, they both bring about the same potential for scoring runs.  

 

What you are implying is that the guys who would hit in front of Cespedes would actually get on at a higher rate yet the guys hitting behind upton would get worse at driving in runs.  

 

Think of it this way, even if Carlos Perez hit behind upton, he would drive in more runs than if he hit behind Cespedes because there would just be more opportunities.     

[Angel Oracle]

The NL factor concerns me about Upton.

How well would he adjust to seeing mainly AL pitching?

[seenoevil]

holy shit!

[seenoevil]

trout should say if you want me to re-sign, get me help!

[tdawg87]

His interleague numbers are basically identical to his overall numbers so I'm guessing "pretty well".

[gotbeer]

I'd rather take Cespedes than Upton.  5/$100 to 105 is probably what he will sign at somewhere. 

 

Biggest reason I don't want Upton, just like I didn't want Heyward, is that entire NL career.  I am not a big fan of big contracts to people switching for the first time to the AL.  They might do well, but more often, you see those that are successful going from AL to NL.  Look at Pujols.  A 900+ OPS player and now people are happy with his 800- candy ass performance. 

[gotbeer]

Oh, and the other thing. 

 

We are in the mix for Cespedes probably means crap.  We gave Heyward a huge offer, over $200 million, and were in the running for him.  And it turns out we didn't even offer him a deal.

 

We are just getting played as the patsies again.

[QuinlansMinion]

Cespedes at 5 years is just as good at Upton for 7 years. Both contracts would end around age 35 and given that Upton is 28 I think he will get 7.

Hopefully Escobar can be the OBP leadoff guy that we need. Trout would get some more rbi chances while getting better protection from Cespedes. Still would like another OBP guy to move Calhoun down to 5th in the order. But Escobar, Calhoun, Trout, Ces, and Pujols, would be a very potent offense.

[Docwaukee]

Cespedes at 5 years is just as good at Upton for 7 years. Both contracts would end around age 35 and given that Upton is 28 I think he will get 7.

Hopefully Escobar can be the OBP leadoff guy that we need. Trout would get some more rbi chances while getting better protection from Cespedes. Still would like another OBP guy to move Calhoun down to 5th in the order. But Escobar, Calhoun, Trout, Ces, and Pujols, would be a very potent offense.

and the benefit of upton would be that we get his age 28-32 seasons while Trout is here.  BUT, would the additional years on that contract lessen payroll flexibility to re-sign him?  

 

that's something I hadn't really considered.  

[tdawg87]

So it's settled. Denard Span, come on down!

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

I love how you guys get all lathered up over guys who will never be signed.

Soapy smutty hot stove pron.

[AngelsFanSince86]

It works that way for all athletes. The more time they have logged playing the more likely they are to be injured.

Yes and no. Yes your chances go up simply because your time spent is longer but that has nothing to do with wear and tear which a LFer not known for laying himself out isn't likely to experience much of regardless of time played. The main reason he would be more likely to get injured is because his body is aging. And that is happening regardless of how much baseball he plays.