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Ji-Man Choi?

greginpsca

By greginpsca
in LA Angels | MLB Daily

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Chuck President / Commissioner

Chuck

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Posted

IS JI-MAN CHOI THE REAL DEAL?

Note: My first book: The 2014 Prospect Digest Annual, which is currently on sale on Amazon for $2.99. Find out where Ji-Man Choi ranks among the game’s top prospects.

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Ever since signing with the Mariners in early July 2009, Ji-Man Choi has done one thing really, really well: hit. Through the first three-plus seasons of his professional career, the Korean-born lefty-swinger owns a .323/.424/.522 line.

 

After hitting a lofty .360/.440/.517 as a 19-year-old in 2010, Choi missed the following season – reportedly due to a back injury that essentially forced the converted catcher to first base. The time away, however, did little to damper his impressive skill set.

 

During his 2012, which, admittedly, should have landed him among the team’s top 16 prospects, Choi hit .298/.420/.463 with an elite eye at the plate (13.3% BB-rate), strong contact skills (18.7% K-rate), and solid average power (.165 ISO). The lone red flag being his age at the time: 21.

 

This season, though, Choi has blazed through High-A by hitting .337/.427/.619 with a minors-leading total of 24 doubles, three triples, and seven homeruns; all the while showing an elite eye (12.8%) and a modest strikeout rate (15.6%).

 

This led the Mariners to recently promote their potential first baseman of the future to Class AA, putting Choi against older competition for the first time in his career.

So, is Ji-Man Choi the real deal?

 

Well, sort of.

 

The California League, home to the High Desert Mavericks, is the premier offensive environment among all of the stateside levels, leading the way with an absurd 5.12 runs per game. It gets worse though. High Desert’s home ballpark, aptly named Mavericks Stadium, adds to the inflated offensive numbers too.

 

According to MinorLeagueCentral.com, the ballpark is sporting some absurd hitter-friendly park factors: 125 for runs, 112 for hits, 116 doubles, and a league high 138 for homeruns (PFs for 2012).  All that means, of course, is that Choi’s numbers this season need to be looked at with some caution.

 

Still, though, using Weighted Runs Created Plus, a park and league adjusted metric measuring all offensive contributions, his production was 73% better than the Cal League average, the highest in the league.

 

Choi’s power grades out as solid-average and the doubles should eventually turn into 20 homeruns potential down the line, though he needs to show some more loft (46.3% GB-rate with High Desert). He’s always shown strong plate discipline. And despite the lackluster showing this season against fellow southpaws (.182/.302/.386), he has a decent track record against them throughout his career (.226/.336/.462).

 

Right now, Choi profiles as a solid prospect, maybe topping out as a 2.5- or 3.0-win player during his peak years. And he probably rank somewhere near the latter part of the team’s top 10 prospects.

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totdprods Hall of Fame

totdprods

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So one wonders why the M's left him off the 40-man roster...

He wasn't left off the M's 40 man, he hit his six year minor-league free agency. It seems pretty rare that any player who makes it to minor league free agency remains with the original organization. As to why Baltimore didn't add them to their 40? Probably because he was just signed as a minor league FA, and BAL probably assumed that since they managed to sign him that way, no one would be looking at him seriously for the Rule 5.

 

My guess is when he got popped with the 50-game PED suspension he dropped off their radar quite a bit, and then was further overlooked by the seemingly endless supply of 1B/LF types the Mariners had last year.

 

He will have to remain on the 25-man all season like Featherston, but I think I read Eppler indicated that both Choi and Guerra are here more as immediate depth options, not long-term prospects, and if they weren't filling their roles the organization would waive them.

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totdprods Hall of Fame

totdprods

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Thanks guys. Kinda like his bat, but i can't see where he will fit in. Unless he becomes a 5th OF'er/ 1b/ DH platoon.

I think they seem hit filling Navarro's role. Last man on the bench, a lefty with a great eye, bit of pop. Can fill in at first and left. Good option to have if he produces. 

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ettin Hall of Fame

ettin

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There is no guarantee that Pujols will be ready to start the season so it really seems like Choi was an insurance policy to start the season. Once Albert returns I have to think Choi will be returned unless he is setting the world on fire.

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Second Base Hall of Fame

Second Base

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Ok, so I've got an idea.  Because we already know what's going to happen here, lets just fast-forward so there aren't any hurt feelings and it saves everyone some time.  

 

December - February: Myself and a small other collection of bloggers will all tell you about how he was a sneaky good pick and that he could really end up being better than anyone imagined. 

 

February/March: He looks downright amazing in ST, which sets the AW fans ablaze with a fiery passion for all the hype of G-Man. 

 

April: He's on the 25 man roster because of his ST performance and because Pujols will still be nursing his way back, since he's actually a 57 year old dude.  But the hype on Choi will have cooled in the past weeks because of a lack of playing time and a slight drop in production.

 

April/May: Choi will get a little bit of a chance, but not even close to the type of one he actually deserves, meanwhile less deserving players will be rewarded with time, because Scioscia. 

 

May: Pujols will return which puts Choi's roster spot in danger.

 

June: The Angels need a roster spot and Choi comes down with an inexplicable mystery ailment which lands him on the DL for a week and in AAA for two more after that. 

 

July: Choi is going to come up with some big hits and keep his spot on the roster, though he'll never get the playing time we all clammer for. 

 

September: (If the Angels landed Upton and a good 2B) Choi will get a bunch of playing time as the regulars rest and set the world ablaze, putting him in perfect position to make the playoff roster.  (If the Angels don't land a good LF or 2B) The Angels will be limping into September a few games back of the Wild Card and just praying for the season to mercifully end so that we don't have to hear another word about Jered Weaver or Albert Pujols. Choi will come in and collect his fair share of hits, increasing his stock. 

 

December: If his stock is high enough, he'll be traded.  If it isn't, he'll be DFA'd. 

 

Summary: Choi will deserve a legitimate shot, but won't get it, but will still hit a little, until being let go. 

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tomsred All-Star

tomsred

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Another Scenario:

 

March:  Choi impresses everyone with a great spring training and makes the 25 man roster.

 

April-May:  He replaces Pujols for the first two months of the season after Pujols' injury takes a little longer to heal.  He does terrific, and is among the early leading All Star vote getters. 

 

June:  Pujols comes back and replaces Choi at first base.  In an effort to cheer him up, Arte gives him a three year $15M guaranteed contract.

 

July:  Choi is still depressed because he's reduced to sharing playing time with Cron, who is playing poorly.

 

August:  Choi gets really depressed due to lack of playing time, and visits a night club, discovers cocaine, and learns about polls (ie poles).

 

September:  Arte gets mad, trades Choi to the Texas Rangers for $500,000 in cash consideration, and eats the other $14.5M of his contract.

 

October:  Choi and the Rangers win the World Series. 

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gotbeer Hall of Fame

gotbeer

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Another Scenario:

 

March:  Choi impresses everyone with a great spring training and makes the 25 man roster.

 

April-May:  He replaces Pujols for the first two months of the season after Pujols' injury takes a little longer to heal.  He does terrific, and is among the early leading All Star vote getters. 

 

June:  Pujols comes back and replaces Choi at first base.  In an effort to cheer him up, Arte gives him a three year $15M guaranteed contract.

 

July:  Choi is still depressed because he's reduced to sharing playing time with Cron, who is playing poorly.

 

August:  Choi gets really depressed due to lack of playing time, and visits a night club, discovers cocaine, and learns about polls (ie poles).

 

September:  Arte gets mad, trades Choi to the Texas Rangers for $500,000 in cash consideration, and eats the other $14.5M of his contract.

 

October:  Choi and the Rangers win the World Series. 

 

It was all believable till the end.  We all know. 

 

October:  Choi and the Rangers are one strike away from winning the World Series, only to lose the next 2 games.

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