Thank you: ettin, DocHalo, AngelsJunky & Inside Pitch

[Chuck]

On a serious note, this place is the best. We could be in facebook comment hell arguing with everyone that said Trading Mark Trumbo was the stupidest thing the franchise ever did.

 

Yeah man, I had to unfollow Halo Nation on Facebook because of the idiotic comments I've read on there from some of the most incredibly lousy fans with a lack of knowledge of the team and the game. 

[tdawg87]

but Trumbo hit homers and ribbies

[Tyler]

IP has always been great. Doc flipped a switch on his Dipoto stance when he started researching more about it. In the beginning he went with the pitchfork crowd for a little bit. Shoutout to John Smith for his minor league postings and a few others like gotbeer for his accounting, ispy45, and a few others are knowledgeable as well.

Edited December 14, 2015 by Shane

[ettin]

IP has always been great. Doc flipped a switch on his Dipoto stance when he started researching more about it. In the beginning he went with the pitchfork crowd for a little bit. Shoutout to John Smith for his minor league postings and a few others like gotbeer for his accounting, ispy45, and a few others are knowledgeable as well.

Yeah I enjoy John's posts too. He's "Johnny on the spot" with the timing as well. Thanks John!

[tomsred]

Sometimes reading their articles and analysis is like playing one of these games.

 

 

http://globalthermonuclearwar.net/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jeez, don't do that again, I had my volume up, and I started at the bottom of the list, LOL.

 

Cudos to Doc, AngelsJunky, and Inside Pitch - you guys bring up some great stuff, and keep the game interesting.  ettin's anlaysis is first rate also.

Edited December 15, 2015 by tomsred

[T.G.]

I've been reading IP since he was the 800lb gorilla at Scout.com.

[Angelsjunky]

Ahh, thanks Chuck for the "bromance." It takes a mixture of different views and approaches to make this the great site that it is.

[Docwaukee]

IP has always been great. Doc flipped a switch on his Dipoto stance when he started researching more about it. In the beginning he went with the pitchfork crowd for a little bit. Shoutout to John Smith for his minor league postings and a few others like gotbeer for his accounting, ispy45, and a few others are knowledgeable as well.

I didn't flip a switch on Dipoto at all.  I have always defended him relative to what he had to work with.  I have always been critical of his bullpen assemblies.  I have always been wary of the high floor draft approach.  Particularly with position players.  I have never really grabbed a pitchfork unless I was trying to offer a counterpoint to blame where it wasn't clear that he was even in charge of the decisions he was being blamed for.  I still think Jerry got a raw deal overall and I am still very leery of who is making the development and player personnel decisions.  That doesn't mean I can't discuss it without being constantly negative in that regard.  

 

What generally stops me from being overly critical is the fact that I don't do this for a living and don't have all the information necessary to come to certain absolute conclusions even though I have an opinion.   

 

Like right now, the execution of the five year plan has me scratching my head a bit.  But I will concede that the guys executing it know a hell of a lot more than me about this stuff so I'll wait and see.  

[Inside Pitch]

I've been reading IP since he was the 800lb gorilla at Scout.com.

 

LOL -- I forgot about that ...

Edited December 15, 2015 by Inside Pitch

[Vegas Halo Fan]

ITT we fellate each other mercilessly

 

Somehow I knew that the Dawg would have a colorful addition to the conversation.,

[halosfan1970]

All good thank you's, but no one here impresses me (and warms my soul) like Troll Daddy and his deep analytical wisdom.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I've been reading IP since he was the 800lb gorilla at Scout.com.

thanks for my website plug man!

Agree with chick, there are some very intelligent people on here who i think we all learn from. And its entertaining as well as informative

If any of you guys knew how much of your odeas i steal and sell off as my own to guys at work youd all sue me. I dont even give an opinion on trades when people ask me until i check in here and see what we think.

[NrM]

IP is the only person I've seen who consistently brings up stats like LD% and FB%. Definitely makes me think.

I just don't know how much it factors into a player's future performance.

 

BABIP, K%, BB% ext.... Those are the stats that I think are very important to use when predicting future performance.

Edited December 15, 2015 by Poozy

[Chuck]

thanks for my website plug man!

Agree with chick, there are some very intelligent people on here who i think we all learn from. And its entertaining as well as informative

If any of you guys knew how much of your odeas i steal and sell off as my own to guys at work youd all sue me. I dont even give an opinion on trades when people ask me until i check in here and see what we think.

Who's this chick? Can you set me up bruh?

[Docwaukee]

IP is the only person I've seen who consistently brings up stats like LD% and FB%. Definitely makes me think.

 

I just don't understand how you can predict a player's future performance based off those stats.

because ball trajectory can help with confidence intervals. 

 

Trout generally has a high BABIP.  but it's repeatable because he hits a ton of line drives, has a high hr/FB rate and he's fast.  

 

here is an interesting correlate:

 

Those with high LD% had high BABIP for the most part except........

 

when they have very high pull rates.  

 

ex.

Ryan Howard 27.7 LD%, 47.6% Pull rate, .272 BABIP

Jason Kipnis 26.8% LD%, 35.3% Pull rate, .356 BABIP

Albert Pujols 15.9% LD%, 45.8% pull rate, .217 BABIP (lowest among qualified players by almost 20 points).  

 

Defensive shifts at work right there.

[NrM]

because ball trajectory can help with confidence intervals. 

 

Trout generally has a high BABIP.  but it's repeatable because he hits a ton of line drives, has a high hr/FB rate and he's fast.  

 

here is an interesting correlate:

 

Those with high LD% had high BABIP for the most part except........

 

when they have very high pull rates.  

 

ex.

Ryan Howard 27.7 LD%, 47.6% Pull rate, .272 BABIP

Jason Kipnis 26.8% LD%, 35.3% Pull rate, .356 BABIP

Albert Pujols 15.9% LD%, 45.8% pull rate, .217 BABIP (lowest among qualified players by almost 20 points).  

 

Defensive shifts at work right there.

 

So say a guy has a career BABIP of around .300 in the minors...and in his first year in the majors, he had a BABIP of .365

He also saw an increase in his LD% and a decrease in FB%

 

Should we expect a similar BABIP next year, or expect him to revert back to his minor league averages?

 

 

IP knows who I'm talking about, maybe you do to. 

Edited December 15, 2015 by Poozy

[seenoevil]

[NrM]

 

Those with high LD% had high BABIP for the most part except........

 

when they have very high pull rates.  

 

Not really sure how true that is though.

 

For example. 

2015 season:

 

Matt Carpenter 28.5% LD 39% Pull .321 BABIP

Robinson Cano 24% LD 35% Pull .316 BABIP

Melky Cabrera 24% LD 37% Pull .297 BABIP

Mike Trout  24% LD 38% Pull .344 BABIP

 

Doesn't seem consistent enough.

Edited December 15, 2015 by Poozy

[Inside Pitch]

Randal will regress -- and still be a solid MLB player.   LD%, Pull rates and contact rates are all excellent predictors/indicators.   I think Grichuk is a bit of unknown quantity because he struggled with some freak injuries, including a wrist injury... the numbers weren't always telling us everything, and if you had never seen the player swing the bat or play -- he'd seem more like a garden variety hack.   But there has been a pretty drasticimprovement in his batted ball profiles -- he's gone from a moonshot type power hitter to a guy that creates extreme exit velocities... hes extremely strong.  And a guy with a history of improving as the season wore on is a good bet to have continued MLB success.   But he does need to cut the K rate...  

Edited December 15, 2015 by Inside Pitch

[Docwaukee]

Not really sure how true that is though.

 

For example. 

2015 season:

 

Matt Carpenter 28.5% LD 39% Pull .321 BABIP

Robinson Cano 24% LD 35% Pull .316 BABIP

Melky Cabrera 24% LD 37% Pull .297 BABIP

Mike Trout  24% LD 38% Pull .344 BABIP

 

Doesn't seem consistent enough.

I should qualify.  pull rate on ball in play.  A huge chunk of what Trout pulls leaves the yard.  I was giving rough estimates, but teams have their more exact data relative to spray and trajectory.  

 

Another example is Bryce Harper.  Big pull rate but high BABIP.  Why?  Every time they tried to shift on him, he just hit a ball oppo for a hit.  

 

Data available to us isn't nearly as robust as what they have.  

[tdawg87]

Another example is Bryce Harper.  Big pull rate but high BABIP.  Why?  Every time they tried to shift on him, he just hit a ball oppo for a hit.  

 

What kind of strategy is that?

 

-Albert Pujols, Year of Our Lord 2015

[marcosantinia12]

There's definitely so much knowledge on this board. I'm fairly new here myself, but I take a lot from everyone here whether I may agree or disagree.

I particularly like the fact that many times I have a (strong) particular stance on something and may change because of some of the people here. It allows me to be more open minded and overall more informed on my own stances. Doc, IP, Ettin, Scotty,nikkachez,todprods are some of the really knowledgable posters in my opinon that I can think off the top of my head but everyone here really has their own contribution to the page. Some, I really value their creativity with ideas, some their projections, some their analysis, etc. And of course there's some whose humor makes Angel's Win what it is !

Thanks to everyone for their input, and specially to Chuck for making this possible in the first place.

[Docwaukee]

So say a guy has a career BABIP of around .300 in the minors...and in his first year in the majors, he had a BABIP of .365

He also saw an increase in his LD% and a decrease in FB%

 

Should we expect a similar BABIP next year, or expect him to revert back to his minor league averages?

 

 

IP knows who I'm talking about, maybe you do to. 

regress.  but it's hard to predict because he's still on the upswing.  it depends on whether his advancement includes better discipline.  will he trade some swing and miss for weak contact?  Frankly, I think he's always going to have a lot of swing and miss so i see his batting average going down to the .240s unless he shows the ability to lay off.  Something that isn't super likely.   It's gonna be offspeed city for him this year.  We will see if he adjusts.

[ettin]

It's not just LD% it's also how strong a hitter is and quality of contact in squaring up the ball.

 

Greater strength means the exit ball velocity off the bat is higher and gets past defenders quicker. Higher LD% and the ability of the hitter to spray the ball around the field also play into BABIP.

 

That's why Trout is so good. He has a .200+ ISO combined with a superb line drive approach (less grounders and flyballs) and can put it any field he wants to making defensive shifts much less effective against him.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Who's this chick? Can you set me up bruh?

lol, ill see what i can do my man. Ill text her with my fat thumbs right noe, haha