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Heyward to Cubs


Mauch Won

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I actually don't like this for the Cubs. They already have a very young, very stacked lineup - Heyward improves it, but not hugely so. But even more so, in a year or two there's going to be several players on the team better than Heyward making a lot less money. So the Cubs are, in a sense, raising the future asking prices for these players.

 

Their salaries are going to be whatever the end up being. This Heyward contract is not going to affect their future value. It may impact their likelihood of signing them, but even that I don't expect. Heyward is simply the Cubs upgrading from Dexter Fowler.

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I like Soler, but you are drastically overvaluing him. He and Baez have had limited offensive success in the majors. They aren't surefire .850+ OPS players yet, so the thought of getting a solid to spectacular starter one for one?

 

Skaggs alone would be enough for either guy and I think we'd be overpaying. For Carlos Carrasco? It would take both plus prospects. Now Schwarber is riding high on a great audition, that would make more sense, but defensively where does he play?

You're probably right. I personally don't value Soler on those levels but I am going based off of numerous rumors involving him including the Braves wanting Soler from Chicago (I think I read somewhere that they value him almost as high as Pollock who is a 6 WAR player). I have also seen other potential deals like Quintana or Salazar/Carrasco.

After re-reading my initial proposal, you're probably right about that not being enough. I definitely think they wouldn't have to include both guys though. I could see Soler, Almora, Underwood, La Stella, and Hammel (or perhaps Hendricks) for Carrasco.

I don't understand why there is so much value in Soler but it seems like there is a lot of interest for him. A lot higher than Baez IMO. I feel like his upside is great (though not as high as Baez who I see becoming into Cargo 2.0) but more importantly he has a very very high floor. I could see a lot of Cespedes comparisons from executives. This guys is not exactly a "prospect anymore" and can suddenly become a .275/.340/.490 30+ HR  beast as soon as next year. That's pretty insane potential value for a guy that will be paid $4M for the next 5 years (cheaper than arbitration even). 

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The other thing the Cubs could easily do is to put Baez at 3b, move bryant to OF and trade soler.  

 

As far as pitching goes, they also now have Adam Warren.  Kyle Hendricks is a nice player and so I'd keep him as he's only 25 and had really good peripherals last year, but they could get a decent pen arm for Hammel probably.  

 

I'd be on the horn to SDP about Ross, CLE about Bauer Salazar, OAK about Gray, TB for Archer.  Too bad Sale plays for CWS because he'd be my first choice.  I would overwhelm them with a deal but there is no way they trade him to the north side.   

 

Their farm system is something to behold as well.  A little light on pitching, but they make up for it with position players big time.  They could easily afford to go out and get a young starter.  

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I actually don't like this for the Cubs. They already have a very young, very stacked lineup - Heyward improves it, but not hugely so. But even more so, in a year or two there's going to be several players on the team better than Heyward making a lot less money. So the Cubs are, in a sense, raising the future asking prices for these players.

I actually thought about this as well until I saw the details of the contract. With 120M left over 5 years, I'm sure a 29 Y/O prime Heyward will opt out for a new 6/150 or 7/165 + contract easily. If Heyward can become a 20 HR .290/.365/.460 doubles machine, he will probably be able to land a 200M+ deal (8/25). 

Works good for the Cubs to pay for a guy's prime years on a 3 year commitment (unless of interest/drastic drop in production/etc.) which fits in perfectly with the team's control over other guys (arbitration and extensions).

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I've largely vouched for signing a second-tier left field option like Span or Fowler because I thought Heyward's cost would end up being ridiculous. But I think this is a really good deal and if I had the choice of choosing to match it, or even add an extra $10 million to it, to bring him to the Angels I would do it without hesitation. We'll never know if he would have signed for us for something like that amount - maybe the Cubs' young talent was a big pulling factor for him - but it's a bit of a let down to see him sign for a total I'd have been perfectly comfortable with us paying him.

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Their salaries are going to be whatever the end up being. This Heyward contract is not going to affect their future value. It may impact their likelihood of signing them, but even that I don't expect. Heyward is simply the Cubs upgrading from Dexter Fowler.

Agree.  It also gives them stability.  One of the reasons they lost in the playoffs last year is that they played very young in that Mets series.  You pretty much know what you are getting with Heyward day in and day out.  He's a vet, but a young vet.  

 

Money is not an issue for them.  If you are going to spend it, why not get the guy entering his prime.  You can use whatever surplus you now have to fill any potential holes.  Heyward could be more than he currently is and isn't likely to be less in the first 5 years of that deal.  Greinke and Price would have been the classic case of paying someone for what they have done somewhere else.  

 

I'd rather have Sonny Gray or Danny Salazar for the next few years than either of those guys.  

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I actually don't like this for the Cubs. They already have a very young, very stacked lineup - Heyward improves it, but not hugely so. But even more so, in a year or two there's going to be several players on the team better than Heyward making a lot less money. So the Cubs are, in a sense, raising the future asking prices for these players.

The Cubs are going to flip Soler for one of Carrasco, Salazar, Ross, or Moore and that will be their next big move to grab a young frontline starter.

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