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Hayward Signs in California. Jason worth $300 Million?!


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$41.2M. What a joke. 

lol this is just beyond ****ing stupid now... if Heyward's 5.7 WAR season is worth 41 million then Trout is worth 80 million a year.

 

So Trout should be making more than half the MLB teams, including the world series champs.

 

And in 2025 apparently 2.0 WAR will be worth almost 25 million a year. So a player of Trout's caliber in 2025 would be worth 125 million dollars a year.

Edited by Poozy
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That system doesn't work anymore because Mike Trout broke it. Otherwise you'd need to sign him to a 15 year contract worth 1.5 billion dollars.

Don't get me wrong, inflation is real and likely will never be stopped in the revenue rich major leagues, but at any rate Heyward isn't worth 20 million a year, even though he's a shoe in to likely make more than that. But if I'm giving a 27 year old RF that hits .270/.350 with 15 HR and 20 SB with good defense, if say his actual value is likely worth closer to 15 million a year.

But then again, a free agent that's only paid 5 million too much on a yearly basis? That's a big win. They typically don't work out even that good. The best I can think of is Torii Hunter who likely earned exactly what he was worth while he was here.

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That system doesn't work anymore because Mike Trout broke it. Otherwise you'd need to sign him to a 15 year contract worth 1.5 billion dollars.

Don't get me wrong, inflation is real and likely will never be stopped in the revenue rich major leagues, but at any rate Heyward isn't worth 20 million a year, even though he's a shoe in to likely make more than that. But if I'm giving a 27 year old RF that hits .270/.350 with 15 HR and 20 SB with good defense, if say his actual value is likely worth closer to 15 million a year.

But then again, a free agent that's only paid 5 million too much on a yearly basis? That's a big win. They typically don't work out even that good. The best I can think of is Torii Hunter who likely earned exactly what he was worth while he was here.

15 million dollars gets you above average starting pitchers or position players nowadays. Do you really believe Heyward is in that tier of players? He pretty clearly deserves at least 20 mil per year.

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Heyward is worth a 10-year, $361 million contract [/size]

Is this from the onion?

Heyward is being WAY over valued because it's a slim market this year and he's the biggest guppy in the gold fish bowl. My offer would be 5/100, and not a bloody dime more.

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I think a lot of people don't seem to understand the dynamics at play here,

 

Free agent salaries have been deemed ridiculous since going back even further than Nolan Ryan asking Buzzi Bavasi for a million dollars. What was his famous line about replacing him with 2 pitchers? The bottom line is, player salaries are not in line with the world the rest of us live in. We can call these values absurd, but they are no more absurd than the huge contracts players were signing 10 years ago that are half of what guys are getting today. Keep in mind Alex Rodriguez signed for 10 years $20m almost 15 years ago now. 

 

Our expectation of free agent salaries is based around our most recent experiences, seeing what players who have hit free agency are signing for. We see what guys with HoF numbers like Albert Pujols got and use that as a barometer of what we expect for other players. The issue here, is that not all free agents are alike, but many of them share similar characteristics. Most are over 30, and have their best years behind them. Most have a long track record of performance at an established level. Most end up never worth the money paid to them.

 

MLB teams have been inundated with a huge influx of money recently. Meanwhile, risk averse players are being tempted into signing long term extensions at far below market rate, limiting the supply of free agents. The number of high performing free agents has decreased, their long term expected performance has decreased, and the money available to sign them has increased. Because of this we have seen huge salaries handed out to mediocre players. Mediocre players are the best players most teams can get. We are seeing relief pitchers sign for $10m, average starting players for even more. Teams have begun paying players around $7m per expected WAR. When most of the guys signing these days are 2 or 3 WAR players, many of whom are older and coming off of stretches of 4+ WAR seasons, we begin to associate these contracts as the top of the market, but the truth is, they are just the top of the available market.

 

Heyward is unlike most free agents. With 6 years in the league starting at such a young age, he does not have the pedigree or long track record of an Albert Pujols or a Robinson Cano. At the same time he is at an age where he is still building that track record up. His performance over the next 4 years is probably what he will be remembered for. What would Pujols or Cano have been worth if they were available 4 or 5 years earlier? 

 

The 'problem' is - from Heyward's perspective - that Cano and Pujols, and other free agents that came before them, signed at the top of the market. That was the value that teams were able to spend for them at the time. Articles like the one that started this topic are based around the market for lesser players, and then scaling it up to Heyward's level. For Hayward, he's lucky because teams have more money to spend now than they ever did. Still, few players have been able to crack the $30m mark. While players of his caliber are probably worth closer to $40m per year, and guys like Trout around $60-70m per year, that level has not come close to being established by players who came before them. Until that happens, players at the top of the league will continue to be great value buys in the free agent market... no matter how obscene their salary.

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