Analyzing 10 Years of MLB Free Agents (you better click on this or I’m gonna be pissed!)

[AngelsWin.com]

By Jason Sinner, AngelsWin.com Contributor - 

What the hell was I thinking?  

So I wanted to create a chart of the last several years’ free agents.  I started this a few days ago thinking that I would import data into excel and just sort it as need be.  â€˜Yeah right,’ said Noah’s wife.  

Anyway, here it is in all its glory.  186 entries starting in 2007 including the unsigned 2016 free agent class.  

Before I delve into dissecting the data, there are a few things to know about the chart.  (quite a few actually)

• It’s sortable.   It’s in filter mode so you should be able to pick and choose how to view by any of the headers.

• It generally contains players that signed or likely will sign a deal of 3 years or longer with a few of less than that thrown in out of interest. 

• It includes season signed, general position category (IF, OF, P), position, age at start, # of years, $$, AAV, War to date, Avg WAR to date, $/WAR, Previous 3 years of total WAR and then AVG, $AAV/AVG WAR (ie how much paid per year base on previous 3 yr avg.), Risk Score (more about this later), $/WAR cost of free agents (ballpark), Net Value to date vs. $/WAR cost, Contract value in $ to date, yrs left, and WAR deficit/surplus.

• About the Risk Score Calculations:

• I’m not an excel guy so I had to figure it out, but I thought it was pretty cool.  Basically, in compiling the data I noticed that the $AAV/AVG WAR (ie how much paid per year base on previous 3 yr avg.) gave a general idea how much you were potentially paying on a $/WAR basis relative to their previous performance.  Yet it didn’t take into account the age at the start of the contract or the number of years of the contract.  The above formula is meant to do that and I think it does a pretty good job.  The higher the score, the more risk.  

• $$ are in millions

• It’s not perfect.  There are some mistakes that I didn’t feel like correcting.  Most of which has to do with the fact that when a player is below replacement and had a negative WAR value, the formulas got jacked.  From that we can assume that the deal sucked or the future deal would suck (ahemIanKennendyahem).  

So my fear was that I would get through imputing all he info and be left with nothing but the fact that the free agent market sucks and that teams should stay away from it.  

Yet I think there are some interesting things to observe and some decent takeaways.  

• It really is a horrible investment.  There is a ton of red ink in the Net Value column.  But it got better over time as the cost of free agents went up.  Wait.  WTF?  Yep, the ability to find value improved as the $/WAR cost rose.  The most expensive free agents got more expensive.  The mid range guys got a bit more expensive, and the low end guys stayed about the same with perhaps a slight increase.  If continuity weren’t an issue, the most cost effective way to handle the market would be to turn over your free agents every 1-2 years.  Think about that for a second.  You are likely to get more production from 9 different guys signing 9 different 10mil/yr contracts over a 3 year period than you would if you signed 3 guys to 3yr/30mil contracts.  

• Stay away from mid level starting pitching.  Oddly enough, the higher end guys have been pretty decent at coming close to their pay.  The mid range guys have almost universally sucked.  So all those guys that will be paid anywhere from 30-80mil?  Just walk away Billy.  Just walk away.  

• Relievers have fared pretty well recently.  With the cost per war affecting mostly the upper tier players coupled with the fact that ‘closers’ aren’t getting as much money, they been relatively productive so to speak.  So much for the notion that you shouldn’t pay for a bullpen.  

• Don’t pay for speed and defense in the outfield.  Players who derive a good deal of their value from such are bad bets.  As an example, there has been one CFer over the last 10 years to be worth what they were paid (our man Torii).  

• Power hitting first baseman aren’t worth it. Pretty much ever.  But of course, there is a difference between absolute and relative production.  As an example, Teix has produced 21.1 WAR over the 7 years of his 180 mil contract (1-yr left).  If the Yankees had gone cheaper, would they have been able to make up that production somewhere else?  They may have been able to spend less, but they probably wouldn’t have.  

• Middle infield and 3b is kind of all over the map.  (btw, did you know that Placido Polanco amassed 41.3 WAR over his career?  I was surprised by that).  Although SS and high end 3bman have faired pretty well.  

• Paying for a corner outfielder has almost universally sucked.  

• Catcher have done decently in a small sample.  Especially those that are good defensively.  

• High end Asian Players seem to have a solid track record as well.

Overall, the free agent market is a pretty bad bet, but it can’t be viewed in a vacuum.  Granted, it makes sense that teams are looking to invest in club controlled players and for good reason.  But as any season approaches, you have to deal with the here and now.  Sometimes you don’t have a club controlled player to fill a spot and you might not for some time.  Because your opportunity to obtain also has to come into play.  Do you have high draft picks?  What options do you have in foreign markets?  What difference will a mediocre player make to the current club?  It’s about the balance between mitigating risk and seizing opportunity.  

So how does all of this relate the our beloved Halos?

Before writing this article, I had my preferences as to who I’d like to see the Halos pursue.  That list included Zobrist, Heyward, Upton, Cespedes, and maybe a reliever or two.  Also on the radar were guys like Davis and Gordon.

Now?  

Zobrist is still on there.  Especially if it’s 3 years.  But I would stay the hell away from all of the high end free agent bats mentioned above.  The only one I would consider is Heyward in that he’s a bit of an anomaly in that he’s the youngest non-foreign position player to reach free agency in the last ten years (the next closest is Prince Fielder).  

I would stock the hell out of the pen.  Make it full beefcake.  BEEFCAKE!  I would go after Maeda or Cueto.  Both front line starters without a pick attached.  I am not a believer in Price.  Greinke would be next in line or possibly Zimm but I don’t like giving up the pick.  If I couldn’t get either of those guys, I would sign one Latos or Fister on 1yr deals.  I would consider doing this regardless to make more pitching available in trade.

If I was going to go after a free agent outfielder outside of Heyward, it would be Parra.  

I would stop gap 3B or try to get Freese at a discount or I would consider Ian Desmond although I am not sure he could play there.  Murphy would be an outside option.  Both would cost a pick which I wouldn’t be thrilled about.  I’d rather have Desmond in that he could shift to SS next year if we can extend Aybar.  

I would trade for an outfielder or third baseman depending on what I couldn’t fill via free agency.  

I would consider Wieters before any of the other OFers.  

I would stay far away from Samardzija, Leake, Kazmir, Kennedy, Gallardo, Lackey, Iwakuma, Happ, Estrada etc.

Ideally, it would look like the following:

Cueto/Maeda/Greinke/Zimmerman

Zobrist

Parra or Either for Wilson

Prado (Santiago trade) or Freese if you can get a discount

Clippard

O’day

Trade Shoe for a reliever

Steve Pearce (util IF/OF)

The pen would be ridiculous.  The lineup and starting pitching would be solid to good.  I would probably add a LHed hitting catcher and veteran IFer to backup SS as well a speedster as a 4th/5th OFer.  Not someone with some speed, but a real burner.  There would be some speed top to bottom.  

Some solid OBP, the ability to actually hit, and excellent defense as well as an improved bench to the tune of about 60mil in additional payroll.  Easy peasy.

View the full article

[Ordos]

Beefcake!

[beatlesrule]

Thanks for taking the time to post this. Interesting stuff. FA is mostly about not having to give up players. Players will always be more valuable.

[marcosantinia12]

I have to agree 100% on beefing up the reliever. With a 10-15 million we can create a completely shut down pen that shuts down a team and shortens the game to 6-7 innings. That has an incredible impact in both our regular season success and more so in the playoffs.

$10-$15 million to a position player (Freeze/Murphy type) will not get you nearly as far.

[Chuck]

Good stuff dochalo

[TroutBaseball]

Great article. Too bad we have such a big need for corner outfield. And too bad you put all this work in, not knowing about the Simmons trade.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Good write up Doc. And thanks for not making it a cliffhanger like ettin (ahem, ettin...)

Interesting that you say corner OF hasnt been worth it, and dont pay for speed and defense. Where does that lead you on the heyward option? Just out of curiosity

[Vegas Halo Fan]

He said that Heyward is an anomaly mainly due to his age.

[DailyHalo]

Whew, that was a lot to read but great article. My only question is why don't you like Samardzija? Even at 85Mish?

[ettin]

Interesting stuff.... Apparently someone has developed a love of spreadsheets to rival my own.

 

In regards to the bullpen I'd argue that there is a point of diminishing returns in bringing too many high-end relievers aboard. Specifically paying for the good ones and then not using mid-inning eaters regularly would be wasting some money although at times you'd certainly be thankful you had them.

 

Quality 9th, 8th, and 7th inning guys are quite good to have but when you have reliable relievers in 6th or even 5th inning roles that aren't being utilized it is a diminishing investment.

 

Street, Smith, (O'Day or Sipp for instance), Gott, Bedrosian, is probably a more ideal value set up from my point of view.

 

Thanks for putting in all the work I certainly understand and empathize with demanding they click it.

[Mark68]

 

I can't believe this guy was worth 41.3 WAR!

[Docwaukee]

Thanks for checking it out. 

 

I do think Heyward is an anomaly, but still pretty risky considering that he's a decent offensive player but gets a ton of his value from defense.  That doesn't hold up for guys in their 30s, but since he's entering his prime, it might be a good bet.

 

Ettin - I disagree on your reliever philosophy.  Scioscia's pen management is something that I have a hard time with because of the lack of flexibility.  Gott doesn't pitch in games where the team is down by 1 run.  Salas did.  As well as a bunch of other subpar guys.  The bullpen of the second half of 2014 is the template.  Street closes.  Someone mans the lead in the 8th.  Everyone else is interchangeable because they are all talented. 

 

How many comeback victories did we have in the second half of 2014?  A lot. 

 

Yeah.  I'm not a Samardjiza fan.  Unless he's broken and there is some easy fix for him.  Otherwise, I'm not paying 80-90 mil for a guy capable of the season he had this year.  Nor would I pay Davis considering he's a year removed from hitting below .200 and would be transferring to a park that decreases LHed value. 

 

Considering what has already happened, however, I think I am going to find myself disagreeing with this offseason's move quite a bit. 

[Tank]

what a superficial analysis, doc. 

 

next time, pout some heart and soul into it. thnx.

[Mark68]

Thanks for checking it out. 

 

I do think Heyward is an anomaly, but still pretty risky considering that he's a decent offensive player but gets a ton of his value from defense.  That doesn't hold up for guys in their 30s, but since he's entering his prime, it might be a good bet.

 

Ettin - I disagree on your reliever philosophy.  Scioscia's pen management is something that I have a hard time with because of the lack of flexibility.  Gott doesn't pitch in games where the team is down by 1 run.  Salas did.  As well as a bunch of other subpar guys.  The bullpen of the second half of 2014 is the template.  Street closes.  Someone mans the lead in the 8th.  Everyone else is interchangeable because they are all talented. 

 

How many comeback victories did we have in the second half of 2014?  A lot. 

 

Yeah.  I'm not a Samardjiza fan.  Unless he's broken and there is some easy fix for him.  Otherwise, I'm not paying 80-90 mil for a guy capable of the season he had this year.  Nor would I pay Davis considering he's a year removed from hitting below .200 and would be transferring to a park that decreases LHed value. 

 

Considering what has already happened, however, I think I am going to find myself disagreeing with this offseason's move quite a bit. 

I'm certainly warming to the idea of Heyward in left. Even if he has to be signed for 8 years, it's really only the last couple that his defensive value might decline. Same with his speed. On base skills usually don't decline with age.

 

That OF D would arguably be the best in the majors, and with Simmons at short and Pujols still playing first most of the time (he's still a good defender) we'll save a lot of runs, which will help our pitching. Heyward's on base skills can't help but benefit the likes of Trout and even Pujols.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I say sign smardjiaski (however he spells his name) AND cespedes, just to troll A's fans

[ten ocho recon scout]

So Doc, with the free agents available, who is your pick to sign?

Im either davis/span (stay with kubitza/gio for cost control) or preferably upton/cueto type. (Both include getting another bullpen arm and preferably a backup C)

[ettin]

Ettin - I disagree on your reliever philosophy. Scioscia's pen management is something that I have a hard time with because of the lack of flexibility. Gott doesn't pitch in games where the team is down by 1 run. Salas did. As well as a bunch of other subpar guys. The bullpen of the second half of 2014 is the template. Street closes. Someone mans the lead in the 8th. Everyone else is interchangeable because they are all talented.

Doc I think you're missing my point a bit. Having a bullpen full of talented guys will still mean that there will be certain relievers that are not utilized as much as the others. You and I both know that Scioscia will generally go with the relievers he feels most comfortable with as most coaches do.

Invariably there will be under-utilized relievers, especially if the starters go deep into games, and you'll be paying them free agent dollars and you won't be extracting the value out of them that you paid for in the first place.

I don't disagree with the idea of having an elite bullpen just the fact that some of that investment will be wasted (and how much is certainly up for discussion).

Perhaps this is the way Eppler will go this offseason. Since we just gave up two of our depth pieces in the rotation building a high-end bullpen and then only have the starters go 5-6 innings max.

This was attempted in Colorado a couple of years back but they didn't have the right pieces in place. The Angels used Cory Rasmus in a short innings starting role two years ago combined with the bullpen which produced good results.

Acquiring or trading for 3-4 elite relievers and then specifically going to the short start/bullpen model would be a risky but interesting route to go in terms of offseason expenditures.

[dimitrig]

Doc I think you're missing my point a bit. Having a bullpen full of talented guys will still mean that there will be certain relievers that are not utilized as much as the others. You and I both know that Scioscia will generally go with the relievers he feels most comfortable with as most coaches do.

Invariably there will be under-utilized relievers, especially if the starters go deep into games, and you'll be paying them free agent dollars and you won't be extracting the value out of them that you paid for in the first place.

I don't disagree with the idea of having an elite bullpen just the fact that some of that investment will be wasted (and how much is certainly up for discussion).

Perhaps this is the way Eppler will go this offseason. Since we just gave up two of our depth pieces in the rotation building a high-end bullpen and then only have the starters go 5-6 innings max.

This was attempted in Colorado a couple of years back but they didn't have the right pieces in place. The Angels used Cory Rasmus in a short innings starting role two years ago combined with the bullpen which produced good results.

Acquiring or trading for 3-4 elite relievers and then specifically going to the short start/bullpen model would be a risky but interesting route to go in terms of offseason expenditures.

 

I agree with this philosophy. The bullpen just needs 2-3 solid guys. Sure, it would be better to have more, but then you are paying for an asset you may not use too often. Plus, relief pitchers not named Mariano Rivera are unreliable year to year. Spending money on mop-up guys is a luxury. If you can do it, great, but there are usually more pressing needs.

[Docwaukee]

I agree with this philosophy. The bullpen just needs 2-3 solid guys. Sure, it would be better to have more, but then you are paying for an asset you may not use too often. Plus, relief pitchers not named Mariano Rivera are unreliable year to year. Spending money on mop-up guys is a luxury. If you can do it, great, but there are usually more pressing needs.

There is a difference between a mop up guy and a guy who comes in when the score is tied or the team is down by a small margin.  Not saying that we need to spend 6mil per on a guy to pitch in blowouts.  But imagine if we had someone like Gott or O'day pitching in place of Salas.  Couple that with the way MS handles bullpens and you are looking at quite a few more opportunities to come back and win games.