MLBTR's FA Predictions

[totdprods]

I would prefer Bastardo, maybe Sipp, over O'Day.

O'Day is gonna make ridiculous money, and he's not the youngest. Yes, yes, I know, relief pitcher and all, but he feels like someone who would be great year one, alright years two and first half of three, then tank. Bastardo is a lefty which we need in this division - Gott, Smith, Street, Morin, possibly Salas, Shoemaker, Bedrosian, and Rasmus - there's plenty of relief RHP depth. Ramos and Alvarez are better as multi-inning guys if they're around.

O'Day's gonna have a lot hype, Bastardo may fly under the radar a bit more. And he's a couple years younger and if I recall, a hard thrower, something the pen is lacking.

Edited November 7, 2015 by totdprods

[ten ocho recon scout]

I still want Antonio Bastardo just because of his name.

remember when pedro said the yankees are his daddy? Who would be his?

[WallyWorld]

If that ended up being our offseason - yikes. 

 

We already have 4 or 5 versions of Kennedy on the team, we don't need to lose a draft pick to get another.

Murphy isn't as much of an upgrade over Gia as people think, and he's way more expensive. Pass.

Cespedes feels like someone this board would grow to hate. Streaky, all or nothing, some ugly ABs - I predict he'd be the 2016 board whipping boy.

[halosfan1970]

Angels should get Heyward. They need more black players on the team or else people are going to think they're racists. Just sayin

 

Nori Aoki could cover the "token Asian" spot vacated by Hank Conger unless "token nip" isn't equivalent to "token gook." He even looks a little like Yoko Ono.

 

Jason Heyward seems to meet the Torii Hunter criteria, so he is clearly not an "impostor."

 

/s (as explained by a moderator, this is all good as long as it is sarcasm)

[ukyah]

Nori Aoki could cover the "token Asian" spot vacated by Hank Conger unless "token nip" isn't equivalent to "token gook." He even looks a little like Yoko Ono.

 

Jason Heyward seems to meet the Torii Hunter criteria, so he is clearly not an "impostor."

 

/s (as explained by a moderator, this is all good as long as it is sarcasm)

 

this is wild man, sarcasm or not.

[DMVol]

A smaller contract, but Murphy (sans the WS) would be what the old "Starry Eyed Arte" used to be about.

Howie makes more sense than Murphy....

[wooyon98]

Howie!!

[Stradling]

All things being equal I take Howie over Murphy, then you read they predict Murphy getting $12 million and Howie $10 million. Yea I'll take Howie over him every day of the week.

[elbooboo]

All things being equal I take Howie over Murphy, then you read they predict Murphy getting $12 million and Howie $10 million. Yea I'll take Howie over him every day of the week.

 

Salaries being equal, I would prefer Howie as well but the Angels might like Murphy because he bats from the left and can play at least some third base.  

 

If the Angels are giving up their draft picks, I wouldn't mind Fowler and Kendrick. 

[Stradling]

So here's a dumb question I should know. So if a player receives a QO and they reject it, then no matter what the team that signs them forfeits their first round pick assuming it's not a protected pick? Where do these sandwich picks come from?

[AngelsLakersFan]

So here's a dumb question I should know. So if a player receives a QO and they reject it, then no matter what the team that signs them forfeits their first round pick assuming it's not a protected pick? Where do these sandwich picks come from?

 

 

The team that signs the player gives up their first round pick. The team that let the player go receives a 'sandwich pick' after the first round but before the second round in exchange.

 

With the way the slotting system works in the MLB draft this serves as nothing more than a way for ownership to convert high valued first round picks into lesser valued sandwich picks. This decreases the amount of money teams are allowed to spend on the draft, the amount of total 1st and 2nd round picks (I believe you can lose 2 picks per year, if not mistaken), and most importantly the slot value assigned to each player drafted.

 

The system is pretty bullshit IMO, and they should get rid of it. There are probably going to be 12 first round picks this year and here we are talking about all these potential signings that aren't worth it - not because of the money - but because of the loss of the pick.

[Second Base]

Cespedes in Anaheim probably hits .280/.320 35 DB 25 HR with good defense at age 31.

Heyward in Anaheim probably hits .280/.380 35 DB 10 HR with great defense at age 27.

Upton in Anaheim probably hits .275/.340 40 DB 25 HR with good defense at age 29.

Because of the likely price difference between Heyward, Upton and Cespedes relative to age and team needs, I'd go with Upton here. Heyward will get that opt out at 5 years and still be making 20 million. Cespedes will be making about the same AAV, but come with the caveat of inconsistency. At relatively the same money, Upton hits more doubles, more home runs, steals just as many bases as anyone on this list, yet he should come without the opt-out, keeping him under team control for longer.

As for pitching, because it costs so much on the open market, because there's mileage on those arms and because every pitcher is just one slight tweak away from season ending surgery, I'd prefer to go the trade route if I can.

I'd go harder after Zobrist than Murphy, but I'd also trade for Prado before signing either of them.

[totdprods]

I want whoever is gonna hit best against Dallas Keuchel.

[tdawg87]

Cespedes in Anaheim probably hits .280/.320 35 DB 25 HR with good defense at age 31.

Heyward in Anaheim probably hits .280/.380 35 DB 10 HR with great defense at age 27.

Upton in Anaheim probably hits .275/.340 40 DB 25 HR with good defense at age 29.

Because of the likely price difference between Heyward, Upton and Cespedes relative to age and team needs, I'd go with Upton here. Heyward will get that opt out at 5 years and still be making 20 million. Cespedes will be making about the same AAV, but come with the caveat of inconsistency. At relatively the same money, Upton hits more doubles, more home runs, steals just as many bases as anyone on this list, yet he should come without the opt-out, keeping him under team control for longer.

As for pitching, because it costs so much on the open market, because there's mileage on those arms and because every pitcher is just one slight tweak away from season ending surgery, I'd prefer to go the trade route if I can.

I'd go harder after Zobrist than Murphy, but I'd also trade for Prado before signing either of them.

 

Heyward hasn't had an OBP above .359 since his rookie season in 2010.

[Second Base]

Yeah that was a typo. I meant .370, which doesn't change what you said and it's accuracy, just a less egregious error. I feel like once he stopped swinging for the fences and found himself, he turned into a great 1/2 hitter. There will of course be the AL/NL adjustment as well as the marine layer and whatever else causes hitters to tank it their first few months here, but outside of those, I expect Heyward should transform into a better player than he was in 2014 and 2015.

[marcosantinia12]

I would prefer Bastardo, maybe Sipp, over O'Day.

O'Day is gonna make ridiculous money, and he's not the youngest. Yes, yes, I know, relief pitcher and all, but he feels like someone who would be great year one, alright years two and first half of three, then tank. Bastardo is a lefty which we need in this division - Gott, Smith, Street, Morin, possibly Salas, Shoemaker, Bedrosian, and Rasmus - there's plenty of relief RHP depth. Ramos and Alvarez are better as multi-inning guys if they're around.

O'Day's gonna have a lot hype, Bastardo may fly under the radar a bit more. And he's a couple years younger and if I recall, a hard thrower, something the pen is lacking.

7.5 a year for a short 3 years is great! He has pitched below 2.28 in the last 4 years with a consistently improving trend. He has had phenomenal WHIP the last couple of years as well and I think he will be even better in a bigger park. Regarding his age, I don't see it as a problem as delivers tend to age well.

Why not go after both him and Bastardo? They are short commitments and for both only add 12.5 mil a year. Let's round that up to 15 if we have to outbid anybody. I don't think its wise to over spend on the pen but this would cost lower than freese had we offered him a QO. This creates a very strong, lockdown pen and as we've seen with KC , shortening a game is valuable. Imagine Bastardo, O'Day, Street in the back end.

[Broad Street]

Why does everyone feel that we need more power? We need OBP at the top of the lineup and contact hitters. Aoki or Heyward would be great fits, though Aoki may be more cost effective.

[nikkachez]

I'd love Sipp, a guy that can right-handed batters out too (he's actually been better against RHP than LHP over the last three years). He wouldn't contribute in 2016, but I'd love to try and sign Greg Holland to a back-loaded 2-year deal. Make another small trade for a hard throwing relief prospect. Add Price or Cueto atop the rotation. Fix left and third, boost the bench. 

[nikkachez]

Why does everyone feel that we need more power? We need OBP at the top of the lineup and contact hitters. Aoki or Heyward would be great fits, though Aoki may be more cost effective.

Agree completely, not worried about power. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Why does everyone feel that we need more power? We need OBP at the top of the lineup and contact hitters. Aoki or Heyward would be great fits, though Aoki may be more cost effective.

im one of the ones clamoring for power, but i agree with that. Mostly for me its because i think pujols is getting to the point where he drops off badly. If he becomes a .250 guy who hits 20-25, were a very different team. Calhoun is similar and both are posting poor obp (though calhoun can nce back).

Its mainly because i dont want trout to be the lone man. By power it doesnt have to be 40 home runs, but mid 20s with 30 doubles and good on base skills is needed i think.

[nikkachez]

im one of the ones clamoring for power, but i agree with that. Mostly for me its because i think pujols is getting to the point where he drops off badly. If he becomes a .250 guy who hits 20-25, were a very different team. Calhoun is similar and both are posting poor obp (though calhoun can nce back).

Its mainly because i dont want trout to be the lone man. By power it doesnt have to be 40 home runs, but mid 20s with 30 doubles and good on base skills is needed i think.

You could make the same argument about the team's OBP. Albert and Kole's OBP fell way off last year. Aybar, Perez, Cron, and Giavotella aren't going to do much in the on-base department. Trout's the only threat to get on base. Get guys who get on base and make contact,

[ten ocho recon scout]

Yeah, totally agree. My main concern is trout turning into the island of IBB, like vlad was for a few years. Totally agree we need guys to get on base, its just that we need so many...i guess thats my concern.

Everyone is correect in saying "look at KC", but i think that ignores the fact KC is stacked top to bottom with guys like span, or parra, or whatever else we target. To put it another way, alex gordon bats like 7th for them...similar to speez in 02. If he batted 2,3 or 4 for them, would they be as dangerous? And were talking about adding a guy like him in frnt of trout as the fix. Yeah, it will help, but were still looking at a black hole the next inning or two

If i had more confidence in pujols, or calhoun being a complete hitter, or cron being for real, id see it different. I guess in terms of what some are saying about our pitching, i look at our offense. We need an "ace bat" i think to at least compliment trout.

Im not opposed to adding a few obp types. In fact, if we could somehow add 3 guys who specialize in getting on base, gap hitting and speed, i would FAR prefer that to a slugger. The problem is, our options this winter via FA wont allow that, and i dont see is having enough to trade for that scenario. Because of that, i prefer an upton type. Gets on base, slugs, middle of the order threat.

[Oz27]

Working in the hypothetical world where players would sign for exactly those amounts I would take Zobrist (3/51) and Span (3/39) for sure. Freese (3/30) is pretty tempting but I'd also consider the trade market or lower tier FAs to complement Kubitza and Cowart. Soria at that price (3/18) would be tempting too, Shawn Kelly (2/12) looks good too. Let's say we signed Zobrist, Span and Kelly the team looks a ton better without giving up a draft pick and adding $36mil of salary...

Span

Zobrist

Trout

Pujols

Calhoun

Cron

Aybar

Perez

Kubitza/Cowart/other cheap options we can find

And a bullpen led by Street, Smith, Kelly and Ramos. Sure that team would still have holes but it would be much stronger than what we ran out there this year.

[disarcina]

SI this week has a similar story projecting where top F/A's will wind up -- it has Cespedes landing with the Halos.

 

6 yrs at $140 million seems a bit much.........how about a five year deal with a club/player option for the fifth year?

 

I think Cespedes in the Halos line up would make the line up and entire team better.

 

Like others here - -where did that Ian Kennedy $55 million over 5 years deal come in??? Kennedy had a high ERA in a pitcher's park. NO.

 

I'd prefer a shorter term, less expensive deal for Fister who the article projects will go to Houston.

 

As for their list -- I think the Yankees make a real bid for Price and he winds up there instead of in Chicago.  Heyward should stay in St. Louis, but probably won't. One guy who really should stay in St. Louis is Lackey -- he's had success there and after injury and effectiveness set backs (in Boston) has resurrected his career to the point he can demand a big contract -- his best bet to prolong his MLB career and still be considered a top tier rotation guy is in St. Louis.

 

Daniel Murphy?? Angels?  Murphy is NOT solid defensively as the post-season shows..........could be play third and replace Freese???  that would be better.  I don't see Howie K coming back but he had a solid season with LA Dodgers before he got hurt........HK at the stage of his career where he may be looking at his last MLB contract, he needs to go for the money and the years and someone like the ChiSox may give him a four year deal..........of course , he may spend those four years on a last place team.

 

I don't necessarily see Gordon returning to KC - -he could be the Halos back up plan if Cespedes signs elsewhere.

[Troll Daddy]

I'd sign Gordon over Cespedes ..: but I don't see either of them on the Angels.