Gordon or Zobrist?

[Coachbulldog]

If the Angels front office is going to try and assemble a World Series team in 2016, they should place little importance on whether a free agent has a draft pick attached to him. I know the Angels farm system has fallen off but it is nearly impossible to have it both ways and it will be difficult for the Angels front rebuild a farm system at the same they are trying to sign free agents to put the current MLB club in the playoffs. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

I think unless Heyward rediscovers his power stroke (most evidence points to the contrary), he just isn't a good option for the middle of the order.  He isn't too impressive with RISP last year or in his career, and while he has the power to go deep, it appears it isn't part of his game the way we once thought it could be.  

 

But he's probably turned into one of the better leadoff or #2 hitters in the game.  So if the goal is to get men on in front of Trout and Pujols, Heyward can do that.  But I'd also argue that Span could do that for much less.  The Angels greater need is for a run producer.

 

Upton's numbers with RISP were marginally better than Heyward last year, but across the career, there's much less of a difference.  Cespedes however, is a beast when it comes to hitting with men on.  Cespedes would make the biggest difference in our lineup given the need.

 

Again, I'm not saying we need to sign any of them, but if we're just building for next year, sure sign Cespedes.  If we're building for the next 4, go with Upton.  If we're building for the next 7, and feel like we have enough MOTO bats in the system, then sign Heyward.

 

I don't think looking at hitting with RISP is a good way of making big time long term financial and team commitments. I just hope that whoever we sign remains a productive player for the life of their contract, and I believe that Hayward is by far the most likely to do that because he has been consistently good, is younger, and good at everything on a baseball field. If we are pay Cespedes to hit well with RISP we might never see that again, and he could just as easily go back to the slightly above average player he was with Oakland before this year.

[AngelsLakersFan]

The most important consideration for the halos is the next five years.  The guaranteed Trout years.  

 

In fact, I think they want as little payroll commitment as possible for after that time.  

 

They are gonna want to leave as much payroll flex available to re-sign Trout and if things don't go well, they won't want dead money committed.  They'll have Santiago for 2 moe, Richards for 3 more and Calhoun for 4 more.  

 

So this offseason will be critical to find replacements for 3b, 2b, and LF for the next five years or so.  Maybe even to find SS replacement for Aybar this year to take over in 2017.  

 

How much better will Heyward be than Upton and Cespedes over the next five years?  My guess is not that much.  So if they are going to go big at any one particular position it will be for 5 yrs.  Not 10. Maybe they go 6 on a guy.  Maybe.  

 

They will also try to keep their draft picks.  

 

It adds up to Cespedes being the most likely target if they decide to go after a big name.  

 

Zobrist in an obvious choice regardless, but his skill set makes him valuable to so many teams so there is gonna be a ton of competition for him.  

 

Ian Desmond might be worth considering to play 2b.  But he's likely to be attached to losing a pick and who knows if he'd be willing to play a different position.  The reason I like him is that he's a buy low candidate and could replace Aybar next year.  

 

They've got a lot of options, but I just don't think Heyward is going to be one of them.  Mostly because of the length of the deal he's gonna get.  

 

At the very least, this place is gonna be hoppin. 

 

I don't really agree with this Doc

 

Hayward isn't going to want a super long term deal. He is going to want long term security but not long term commitment. He'll look for a 7 or 8 year deal, with an opt out after year 4 or 5. That way he can choose to leave early if he wants, and he can get a great second free agent contract if he plays well. This will be in the best interests of both the Angels and Hayward, since it allows the Angels to limit long term obligations (most likely) and the opt out claus should allow the Angels to offer up a lower AAV in exchange for the security of the back end deal. 

 

I also don't agree that Hayward, Cespedes and Upton are likely to be of similar value over the next 5 seasons. While not the be all end all or anything, Steamer sees Upton as a 2.5 war player next season, Cespedes as a 3.1 and Hayward at 4.4. Hayward is the only player that will likely play most of his next contract during his 20's (in my opinion) rather than his 30's (Cespedes will play all of it in his 30's), so I would wager the gap is only going to get wider between them.

[Angel Oracle]

I am beginning to see the seeding of the 4 OFers as follows.

1)  Heyward - young and athletic with solid gap hitting skills and excellent defense

2)  Cespedes - only 4 MLB seasons so far, driven to hit well in crucial spots, great arm, a little bit spotty on judging FBs/line drives  

3)  Gordon - turning 32 in 2016, and having already played a significant number of games, solid all around 

4)  Upton - the most likely to regress some early in a new contract?

Edited November 5, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[marcosantinia12]

I don't really agree with this Doc

Hayward isn't going to want a super long term deal. He is going to want long term security but not long term commitment. He'll look for a 7 or 8 year deal, with an opt out after year 4 or 5. That way he can choose to leave early if he wants, and he can get a great second free agent contract if he plays well. This will be in the best interests of both the Angels and Hayward, since it allows the Angels to limit long term obligations (most likely) and the opt out claus should allow the Angels to offer up a lower AAV in exchange for the security of the back end deal.

I also don't agree that Hayward, Cespedes and Upton are likely to be of similar value over the next 5 seasons. While not the be all end all or anything, Steamer sees Upton as a 2.5 war player next season, Cespedes as a 3.1 and Hayward at 4.4. Hayward is the only player that will likely play most of his next contract during his 20's (in my opinion) rather than his 30's (Cespedes will play all of it in his 30's), so I would wager the gap is only going to get wider between them.

I agree with pretty much this whole post.

Just to add to it, I think that Cespedes is at a peak in value right now. I honestly don't see him repeating last season. He will still be a very productive player but you are paying for .291/.328/.542 and 35 HR. I don't see him hitting like this next year, let alone for the length of his contract even just 4-5 years, but that's what you will pay him for.

Heyward will be paid like a superstar, but chances are, he will be better than what we have seen. Worse case scenario, he continues to play like we've seen and he doesn't improve. And even then, I see him being more productive all-around than Cespedes in a 4 year span.

Heyward 26-30 > Cespedes 30-34

[marcosantinia12]

I am beginning to see the seeding of the 4 OFers as follows.

1) Heyward - young and athletic with solid gap hitting skills and excellent defense

2) Cespedes - only 4 MLB seasons so far, driven to hit well in crucial spots, great arm, a little bit spotty on judging FBs/line drives

3) Gordon - turning 32 in 2016, and having already played a significant number of games, solid all around

4) Upton - the most likely to regress some early in a new contract?

Interesting, I think that Cespedes regresses quicker. Mostly due to Anaheim suppressing his power (Upton has already been tested through that in SD) as well as his lack of OBP. I think as he ages, his lack of plate discipline will be crucial in his regression. Even Vlad who was a free swinger holds a .379 obp. That allowed him to age well.

[disarcina]

Gordon is a gold glove OF'er and steady hitter -- not much power about .270.

 

Zobrist is a very good 2B.

 

so given that, I'd take Zorbist -- think Royals will try to re-sign both and probably will try harder to sign Zobrist - he played well for them down the stretch and made a difference in the playoffs........have not really watched Zobrist much -- not many Tampa Bay games worth watching --- but was very impressed with him as a KC Royal.........clutch hitting and good D at 2B -- his height allows him to snare line drives that go over other 2B's (Giovatella) heads for RB singles.

[disarcina]

of that OF group - I'd focus on Cespedes -- he seems to be a real game changer everywhere he goes. Makes the team better.

[Homebrewer]

We have to bring in someone that can stop MS form batting Aybar leadoff.

Who is better at leading off...that would be my main focus. Rounding out the order and strengthening the team... as a team.

[Angel Oracle]

Why is Sosh so adamant about continuing with the "Aybar in leadoff role" idea? 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Why is Sosh so adamant about continuing with the "Aybar in leadoff role" idea?

same reason he has him play SS...dont have anyone better

[VariousCrap]

Fangraphs has predicted the following:

 

Heyward:  9/195 (They predict the Cards resign him)
Cespedes:  7/150 (They predict the Rangers sign him)
Upton:  7/140 (They predict the Yankees sign him)
Gordon:  4/92 (They predict the Royals resign him)
Fowler:  4/56 (They predict the Cubs resign him)

Span:  3/30 (They predict the Mariners sign him)
Rasmus:  3/42 (They predict the Indians sign him)
Parra:  2/18 (They predict the Reds sign him)

Jackson:  2/24 (They predict the Tigers sign him)

 

Zobrist:  4/76 (They predict the Dodgers sign him)
Murphy:  4/48 (They predict the Angels sign him)
Kendrick:  3/48 (They predict the White Sox sign him)

Desmond:  5/85 (They predict the Mets sign him) --- This is for Doc

Freese:  3/33 (They predict the Braves sign him)
 

[VariousCrap]

Now, based on the predictions by Fangraphs, I would prefer Heyward at 9/195 over Cespedes at 7/150.  Cespedes is older and will start to decline while Heyward is entering his prime years  Heyward is also guaranteed to have an opt-out clause.  Not to mention, if you had Heyward hitting in front of Trout, you will see his numbers get even better.  That said, I'd prefer the Angels sign Fowler for 4 or 5 years to either one of them.  I just think that is the smarter move in regards to filling all the holes the Angels have.

 

I like Murphy at 4/48 and I think Freese at 3/33 is actually a decent deal.  I think Zobrist at 4/76 is too much and if the Dodgers are wanting him, there is not reason to get into a bidding war over him in my opinion.

Edited November 6, 2015 by VariousCrap

[Troll Daddy]

Batting Heyward in front of Trout means that Pujols will bat behind Trout

[VariousCrap]

With Sosh in control, it will be Trout followed by Pujols for a few more years despite who they sign.

[Troll Daddy]

I don't necessary believe that ... Pujols still happens to be the best option batting behind Trout until there is a better option.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Zobrist to the dodgers makes a lot of sense

if upton really goes for 140 and its not us im gonna be pissed (unless its because we blow our wad on something better)

[Second Base]

Just a guess, while Cespedes saves our draft pick, and is the best run producer available, his inconsistency makes him a free agent risk we may not be able to afford.

Heyward isn't exactly the run producer we need, but he does make this offense so much better by hitting in front of Trout. He's young, left handed and a good defender, all there of which we need. But again, not a run producer.

Upton is the consistent run producer the Angels need, and is young enough to expect more of the same for the next 5 years.

Ettin makes a very compelling, well thought out case. The Angels very well should be spending. Zobrist takes over 2B, or if things at 3B go south, he'll slide over and have Gia man 2B. Upton in LF of course.

Calhoun, Zobrist, Trout, Upton, Pujols and Cron can do some things.

[VariousCrap]

IMO, it is ridiculous to sign Zobrist for around 4/76 when you can get Murphy for around 4/48.  It makes more sense to sign Murphy.

 

If the Angel want the homerun/rbi guy, they could do:

 

Upton for LF

Murphy for 2B

Trade for 3B

Sign a starter to make up for who is traded for 3B

Sign a relief pitcher

 

Or they could go a more inexpensive way

 

Rasmus for LF

Murphy for 2B

Trade for 3B

Sign a starter to make up for who is traded for 3B

Sign a relief pitcher

[Second Base]

As I've said before, I'd strongly caution against signing a 3B and even a catcher. Regardless of what happened in the majors, the Angels are about to embark on something special.

Kubitza is the real deal at 3B, there's just no other way for me to put it. He's going to be Daniel Murphy level good in a year or two. Cowart is so good defensively that whatever he offers offensively can be a bonus. Granted, it isn't real yet, but in a couple years he might actually hit MLB pitching. Regardless, 3B is in good, young hands.

And Bandy at catcher, he and Perez are going to make the best catching tandem the Angels have had since the Molinas. Both Bandy and Perez are superb defensive catchers with a great relationship with the pitching staff. Bandy can swing for some power and when he's really comfortable, he'll work the walks too. Perez is a contact hitter, which works in a Scioscia style offense. And in another couple years we'll have Ward, who the Angels believe will be too good to platoon.

Save the trades and free agents for things like LF, SP and 2B. Trust the farm with C, 3B and DH.

[ispy45]

IMO, it is ridiculous to sign Zobrist for around 4/76 when you can get Murphy for around 4/48.  It makes more sense to sign Murphy.

 

If the Angel want the homerun/rbi guy, they could do:

 

Upton for LF

Murphy for 2B

Trade for 3B

Sign a starter to make up for who is traded for 3B

Sign a relief pitcher

 

Or they could go a more inexpensive way

 

Rasmus for LF

Murphy for 2B

Trade for 3B

Sign a starter to make up for who is traded for 3B

Sign a relief pitcher

Murphy's defense is a liability.  Might as well  keep Giavotella. We need a defensive upgrade at second base badly.Not so much offense upgrade. It's why Sosh keeps subing Featherson , Green and Jackson in the late innings. 

Edited November 6, 2015 by ispy45

[AngelsLakersFan]

As I've said before, I'd strongly caution against signing a 3B and even a catcher. Regardless of what happened in the majors, the Angels are about to embark on something special.

Kubitza is the real deal at 3B, there's just no other way for me to put it. He's going to be Daniel Murphy level good in a year or two. Cowart is so good defensively that whatever he offers offensively can be a bonus. Granted, it isn't real yet, but in a couple years he might actually hit MLB pitching. Regardless, 3B is in good, young hands.

And Bandy at catcher, he and Perez are going to make the best catching tandem the Angels have had since the Molinas. Both Bandy and Perez are superb defensive catchers with a great relationship with the pitching staff. Bandy can swing for some power and when he's really comfortable, he'll work the walks too. Perez is a contact hitter, which works in a Scioscia style offense. And in another couple years we'll have Ward, who the Angels believe will be too good to platoon.

Save the trades and free agents for things like LF, SP and 2B. Trust the farm with C, 3B and DH.

 

I'm not as high on Kubitza and Cowert as you, but Giovatella had a passable year this season, so between Gio, Cowert, and Kubitza I expect at least one to step up and produce at an adequate level. This is why I like the idea of signing Zobrist so much, because he can just about ensure that at least one of the two positions is in more than adequate hands. 

 

I feel the same way about catcher. I'm very happy going into the season with Perez at the top, but I'm not comfortable with Perez AND Bandy. Maybe in a year or two, but right now neither of them has a strong enough track record, so I'd like to see a veteran catcher with reasonable expectations in there as well. 

 

Track record is important, and as much as I like young players, every untested player is potential for a serious problem if they struggle to adjust to the big leagues. We need some stability, some sure things, mixed in to the lineup.

[HaloNArizona]

I feel completely safe rolling with Kubitza at 3B next year.  If the Angels give him a chance over Cowart, I think there'll be a ton of AW member eating crow.  When I watch Kubitza, I see a younger Daniel Murphy, who is set to make a boat-load of cash. 

 

All Kubitza needs is a chance.  He's grown into a good defensive 3B, he's left handed, has VERY good gap power, can run, he's young and inexpensive.  He's the answer at 3B.  I honestly think he'll outperform David Freese over the next 3 years. 

I'd be good with Kubitza at 3B, especially if that means we can upgrade at LF and 2B.  Lets spend Arte's money wisely.  Freese is not a wise spending of money. 

[Troll Daddy]

Perez struggled offensively from Jun - Aug ... batting below the Mendoza line during those months. To me this a cause for concern. No way I start the season with Perez/Bandy as our catchers. If one of them goes on the DL then we are really screwed.

[tdawg87]

Yeah, and what did he hit in September/Oct when he got the most consistent catching time?