The more I look at our salary situation, the harder Eppler's job is beginning to look

[gotbeer]

I'm looking hard at the projections I have.  You can use Ettins numbers, or Cots or do your own research.  

 

But looking at my sheet.  Let's look at our financial options.  

 

Moreno says he will go over the CBT.  Let's say he does.  How much will he go over?  Some are saying up to $200 million.  So if we go there.  Our CBT for next season currently sits at $169 million.  So that's $31 million to spend this offseason.  And our glaring holes are LF, 2B, 3B, and you can even go to C, not to mention an ace and bullpen help.  

 

Now if you want to look further than one year.  In 2017, no matter how much people say we are subtracting salary and we look good, our CBT is very roughly $125 million.  So whatever we add this year, add to next year.  $31 million would put it at over $156 million.   So $44 million to spend next offseason/season assuming the CBT goes to $200 million.  If the cap gets raised that high.  

 

So say you want to hedge and spend $10 million of the 2017 money.  While $34 million sounds like a lot, arbitration and small signings can eat away at that quick. And if the CBT doesn't get raised much tax wise, it can be very problematic. To the point you have no money to sign any high end FA's.  

 

So you have $31-41 million to spend this offseason.  So how would you fill it?

[UndertheHalo]

Throw all the money at Upton or Heyward.  Use whats left to shore up the bullpen. 

[gotbeer]

From a budget of $31-41 million.  This would be my shot at it.  Yes, I said I liked other people more or less than other people.  But looking at the budget constraints.

 

C - Perez $0 move

3B - Cowart - $0 move

 

not popular, but you have to think budget and it's sink or swim time for these two.

 

CJ Wilson - Trade $10 million/eat $10 million - CBT a net of I believe CBT $7.5 million

 

So now $38.5-$48.5 million.  Still not a lot.

 

Murphy - excercise option.  +6.5 million.

 

So back down to $32-42 million.  

 

2B - Zobrist  say $15 million.  Hopefully a little less.  Benefits of him, will probably be a 2-3 year contract.  So long term very CBT friendly.  

 

$17-$27 million

 

LF - I'd love Fowler, or Heyward, or Cespedes.  But I just don't think we have the money.  I think you have to wait the market out, and hope someone gets squeezed out, since there are so many OF'ers available.  But I say $10-12 million would be our budget on an OFer.  

 

SP - Again, we have to go budget.  Haven't really researched SP'ers so not sure.  But $10 million is probably where we are looking to spend.

 

That should leave around $5 million for relievers.  And $5 is usually good enough to get a quality pen arm.  

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

I'd definitely go after Zobrist, he's a proven AL player. I think if we are going to miss out on Upton, Cespedes, and Hayward; Fowler would be a nice consolation prize. Slot him in at Leadoff and Zobrist in the 2nd spot..

 

Fowler (LF)

Zobrist (2B)

Trout (CF)

Pujols (1B-DH)

Calhoun (RF)

Cron (1B-DH)

Aybar (SS)

Perez ©

Cowart/Kubiza (3B)

 

Seems pretty realistic, no? Is Fowler +Zobrist out of our budget?

[Guest]

I'd definitely go after Zobrist, he's a proven AL player. I think if we are going to miss out on Upton, Cespedes, and Hayward; Fowler would be a nice consolation prize. Slot him in at Leadoff and Zobrist in the 2nd spot..

 

Fowler (LF)

Zobrist (2B)

Trout (CF)

Pujols (1B-DH)

Calhoun (RF)

Cron (1B-DH)

Aybar (SS)

Perez ©

Cowart/Kubiza (3B)

 

Seems pretty realistic, no? Is Fowler +Zobrist out of our budget?

 

I think this is the best way to go provided they sign a top SP free agent as well. 

[greginpsca]

If he is completely healthy, Span would be cheaper than Fowler for close to the same production. And maybe sign Sean Rodriguez for a utility role. Then go after pitching, sp and rp. Hopefully thru trades that will give us some more payroll flexability.

Edited October 21, 2015 by greginpsca

[Jay]

#1 starting pitcher

[19HALO71]

Go with:

Giavotella at 2nd

Kubitza/Cowart at 3rd

Perez at C

 

Go after Cespedes in LF, a top of the rotation arm and re-sign Murphy as the 4OF and DH.

If anything remains start with a possible replacement at 3rd.

 

Go Halos!!!

[Angel Oracle]

Latest thought is to sign Zobrist (no draft pick lost) and a solid guy for the backend of the pen (assuming no draft pick lost), and then trade for a solid LF who defends well, runs well, and hits the ball to the gaps. 

We have enough MOTO power with Calhoun, Trout, and Pujols.

We need better defense, speed, and OBP; and a solid back end of the pen guy. 

We need to continue to cultivate the starting pitching depth.

We need to hope that Richards will be back to ace form in 2016. 

[gotbeer]

and a solid guy for the backend of the pen (assuming no draft pick lost), 

 

I think it's safe to say that we will not lose a draft pick no matter who we sign for the pen.  Even elite closers may not get to the qualifying offer threshhold.  

[gotbeer]

Pen arm.  How about the Korean dude?  Should come under budget, and top end he competes for the closer, if not, setup or get oout of inning after a pitcher meltdown stopper.

[gotbeer]

I'd definitely go after Zobrist, he's a proven AL player. I think if we are going to miss out on Upton, Cespedes, and Hayward; Fowler would be a nice consolation prize. Slot him in at Leadoff and Zobrist in the 2nd spot..

 

Fowler (LF)

Zobrist (2B)

Trout (CF)

Pujols (1B-DH)

Calhoun (RF)

Cron (1B-DH)

Aybar (SS)

Perez ©

Cowart/Kubiza (3B)

 

Seems pretty realistic, no? Is Fowler +Zobrist out of our budget?

 

Zobrist Fowler would be nice.  It would cut it a bit close to budget, but it's probably doable.  As someone pointed out, Span could be a good alternative also.  

[seenoevil]

Needs bp depth with our 5 to 6 inning sp

[Chuck]

Arte said he's willing to go over the luxury tax. 

[Homebrewer]

Lets get Arte to bankroll us at the Breeders Cup.

Money problems solved.

[halosfan1970]

How can we possibly make informed decisions on these players without knowing their opinions on the homosexual lifestyle, interracial marriage, and women's suffrage? 

[Homebrewer]

And lasagna..there is always lasagna to consider.

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

Did someone mention Sean Rodriguez? Keep that gay pirate away from our Gatorade coolers please.

[Hollyw00d]

Its not my money!!!!!

[ten ocho recon scout]

Its not my money!!!!!

moreno definitely seems gunshy after the hamilton deal. Then again, when you look at the slew of horrible money weve spent, its actually been because of the money.

If i were a betting man id say hes got a boner for cespedes. Id personally like to add him...just dont think its the right move.

I want upton, but dont think hes on the radar. Heyward doesnt seem like our type, though if dipoto was still around id believe more.

[Ohtaniland]

Arte said he's willing to go over the luxury tax.

I think that Arte is stuck paying the Hamilton tax which was originally suppose to be a luxury. With the Anaheim deal dead in the water coupled with the much needed stadium repairs I doubt that Arte will go over the threshold. Remember that Arte can clearly see that other teams are doing just fine with less payroll.

[ettin]

Arte said he's willing to go over the luxury tax.

I have a lot to say about this later in the Primer Series but it seems very likely that Arte will not only breach the Luxury Tax he'll blow through it.

When you look at Average Annual Value over the next four years it becomes clear that the team can spend a significant amount of money (give or take $50MM-60MM) and only be over the tax this year and possibly next year (and in that year the Angels will only be over by only about $5MM max making the 30% tax a small number).

It wouldn't surprise me to see one big ticket signing, a mid-tier signing, and 1-2 lower tier signings this offseason. It also will not be surprising to see one or more arbitration buyout contracts given too.

If Arte was willing to eat Hamilton's contract paying out for the 2016 Luxury Tax should be a walk in the park. More to come on my thoughts on that as I don't want to rewrite everything I already wrote here.

Gotbeer has a point if Arte gets stingy and doesn't authorize too much. I hope he does the smart thing and spends big here to improve the team and show that we can compete as a big market team. I generally don't like spending on free agents but the Angels are in a situation where they can build a team for the immediate future with marginally sufficient depth for 2016 and then use the 2017-2020 drafts to rebuild the farm.

Doing this will maximize our World Series chances with Trout in the fold.

Edited October 21, 2015 by ettin

[Ohtaniland]

I have a lot to say about this later in the Primer Series but it seems very likely that Arte will not only breach the Luxury Tax he'll blow through it.

When you look at Average Annual Value over the next four years it becomes clear that the team can spend a significant amount of money (give or take $50MM-60MM) and only be over the tax this year and possibly next year (and in that year the Angels will only be over by only about $5MM max making the 30% tax a small number).

It wouldn't surprise me to see one big ticket signing, a mid-tier signing, and 1-2 lower tier signings this offseason. It also will not be surprising to see one or more arbitration buyout contracts given too.

If Arte was willing to eat Hamilton's contract paying out for the 2016 Luxury Tax should be a walk in the park. More to come on my thoughts on that as I don't want to rewrite everything I already wrote here.

Gotbeer has a point if Arte gets stingy and doesn't authorize too much. I hope he does the smart thing and spends big here to improve the team and show that we can compete as a big market team. I generally don't like spending on free agents but the Angels are in a situation where they can build a team for the immediate future with marginally sufficient depth for 2016 and then use the 2017-2020 drafts to rebuild the farm.

Doing this will maximize our World Series chances with Trout in the fold.

Arte had Trout, a couple of decent years with Pujols and Weaver but refused to go over the threshold. Now he has two years of Hamilton to pay out while getting nothing in return. I think Eppler will put the train back on the track but I doubt that he will mortgage the future to Win now. This team needs to rebuild the whole infield and LF. Going over the luxury tax won't do that unless he's planning a one and done year.

[ettin]

Arte had Trout, a couple of decent years with Pujols and Weaver but refused to go over the threshold. Now he has two years of Hamilton to pay out while getting nothing in return. I think Eppler will put the train back on the track but I doubt that he will mortgage the future to Win now. This team needs to rebuild the whole infield and LF. Going over the luxury tax won't do that unless he's planning a one and done year.

 

In about 2-3 weeks I'll have a section of the Primer coming out regarding the Luxury Tax that I think you'll hopefully find interesting. I will caveat everything by simply stating that all of this falls on Arte's shoulders to pull the trigger but if the Angels are willing to pay approximately $15MM total towards the Luxury Tax in the next TWO years then there is no reason they can't spend big this offseason and fill in almost all of those holes in free agency and trade in my humble opinion.

 

To put it a different way I see at least one scenario where the Angels sign four different free agents (one big ticket, one mid-tier, and two lower-tier) for just under $60MM and make a couple of trades that would set the roster at every position around the infield and add a front line starter for the next 4 years. Also in that scenario a good bullpen piece is added for three years. Although some may disagree (and I'm sure there will be those people) I feel it is fully achievable if Arte fronts the money which he should do without hesitation.

 

Oh and the reason he didn't go over the threshold then was because he didn't really want to go into the 30% tax territory. This year is different as he can authorize a lot of money expenditures and still be back under the threshold next year (or as I hinted the year after). Just remember too that so much money comes off the books next year (and the year after) that if we stay a 2nd year under the tax we will very likely only be a couple of million over and when you tax 30% of $2MM-3MM it isn't that much to fork out.

Edited October 21, 2015 by ettin

[nikkachez]

I'd trade Santiago AND Wilson, could save around $15-$17 million that way. Those two should get 2-3 players that can help now (get an infielder, outfielder, and maybe even some relief help, but make sure they're young players/prospects on the brink of contributing). Trade Cron for a new starting pitcher to stash in AAA and maybe even another major league ready reliever. Sign John Lackey or Mike Leake to anchor the rotation, I've been on the Fowler hype train for a while (although he might cost a draft pick), make a splash in the international market (I know there are several Korean and Japanese players this team could use (Jae-Gyun Hwang has my attention for third).

Get creative. I want to see quality depth (in the lineup and pen particularly), youth, athleticism, and strong defensive players added in bulk like Eppler's shopping at Costo with Arte's credit card. Oh, and non-tender or trade Salas to save a couple million

Edited October 21, 2015 by nikkachez