Grienke Officially Opts Out

[Angelsjunky]

There's three or four big free agent starters on the market right now, with two top tier aces in Greinke and Price, and two lesser aces in Cueto and Zimmermann. Price will probably get the most because he's 30 and just as good as Greinke. Zimmermann will probably get the least.

 

Consider also that Max Scherzer just got 7/$210MM for ages 30-36 and Jon Lester got 7/$155M for ages 31-36. Those are probably the best comps for prediction.

 

Scherzer is similarly as good as Price and Greinke, and Lester is probably a tad better (or more consistent) than Cueto and Zimmermann, although a year older. My guesses would be:

 

Price: 7/$200MM

Greinke: 6/$180MM

Cueto: 7/$150MM

Zimmermann: 7/$140MM

 

Or something like that.

[Jay]

You're really good at this.

 

I think seenoevil is Mrs. Dipoto

[laagamer]

Stay the **** away. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

He'll dtay in LA

But...i agree the skanks might make a move. I could also see the cubs or stros ttying. Houston was willing to take on hamels contract...kc moght try and bring him back too

Its funny, seems like just yesterday we couldnt afford him...his contract doesnt seem as bigs now to be honest. Especially considering what we got from hamilton, and what were still paying him...

[Jay]

Its funny, seems like just yesterday we couldnt afford him...his contract doesnt seem as bigs now to be honest. Especially considering what we got from hamilton, and what were still paying him...

 

thanks Jerry

[Blarg]

No wonder Jerry was fired.

[Homebrewer]

The guy is going to get what he wants, and he is going to get it from the wealthiest team in this universe, the Dodgers.

I hope lots of teams spread rumors of huge offers, so the Dodgers really get it stuck to them.

[Guest]

Haha what a greedy dude. Good for him though, he's a great pitcher

[Blarg]

The guy is going to get what he wants, and he is going to get it from the wealthiest team in this universe, the Dodgers.

I hope lots of teams spread rumors of huge offers, so the Dodgers really get it stuck to them.

 

Or the Dodgers could tap into Price and let Greinke play somewhere else.

[Homebrewer]

Giving huge money to 30+ YO pitchers is just stupid in this day and age.

Grienke, Price, whoever. There are Arrietas out there, but it takes great scouting to find them, and great coaching to bring out the Ace Inside. 

Let stupid teams pay them stupid money.

If the Angels do it, it won't surprise me, because the Angels owner has proven time and again that he doesn't get how things work in the brave new world of baseball.

But I can always hope that someone can wake his ass up.

[floplag]

the opt out was assumed and expected, but leaving Dodgers isnt... its a money move nothing more, for a guy in this 30s with a lot of mental weaknesses that needs to be coddled.  Dodgers can have him, he wont duplicate last season again.  

[Second Base]

I agree with AJ, Greinke will be good probably for another 4-5 years. He's worth a pretty considerable investment....for other teams though.  While the Angels lack an ace, they have a great deal of pitching depth, and their needs more reside in a top of the order and middle of the order hitter. 

[Troll Daddy]

Mental weakness ... really?  Dodgers aren't necessarily going to sign Greinke with many free agents to choose from in free agency. They will get their pick of the litter and might sign two pitchers. Angels need to get one of those pitchers unless they can pull off a trade for  #1 starter somehow.

[Jay]

I don't have as much faith in the Angels pitching depth as some here.

 

Agree that Greinke isn't the answer though.

[Angelsfirst]

I do think that Greinke is the kind of pitcher that holds up well into his thirties. I think 125 mil for 5 years is actually reasonable considering the market, but I think there will be a few teams willing to exceed that.

I don't think the Dodgers will get outbid by anybody but you never know. Cashman might do something crazy and give him a CC type contract. Either way, not likely we'll see him in an Angels uniform.

[gotbeer]

Greinke will be offered around the 5/$125 by the Dogs.  If he doesn't take it then there is always plan B for them.

 

[Stradling]

yep, the Dodgers will sign either Greinke or Price, if not both.

[Brent Maguire]

No surprise here. Greinke is very likely to just re-sign and stay in LA. 

[Second Base]

All I know, is that if the Dodgers roll out a 2016 rotation of Kershaw, Greinke and Price with their top three, I'll just be thankful we don't have to reside in the same division. 

 

As for our Angels.  I think we've seen the best and worst of Richards already.  Now comes the part where he shows who he really is.  Not the potential Cy Young candidate, but also not the inconsistent #2/3 starter from this year.  He'll be the fringe ace/#2 starter.  200 IP and a 3.25ish ERA per year with a handful of strikeouts.  I think Heaney's lack of upside, but polish, left handedness and youth should indicate he is what he will be going forward.  A solid #3 starter.  A couple hundred innings, 3.50 ERA great BB/9 and decent K/9.  Not too flashy but quite good.  Shoemaker's probably is the same boat as Richards, certainly not the #2 starter he was in 2014 but likely not the fringe #5 he was in 2015.  I think he'll settle into a #4/5 starter. Maybe 180 innings or so with an era around 4.  I think you can pencil in Wilson in for about the same as Shoemaker.  Skaggs should probably be about the same.    

 

The real kicker here though is that I think Santiago's toast, the league's figured something out about him, and I also think Weav's done.  

 

So normally I'd say we'd need one or two starters in 2016, and another in 2017, but in comes Newcomb, Ellis and Smith.  Nuke should be a left-handed version of Richards.  Great stuff, but he needs to refine his command before we see success.  He'll come up later in 2016 but will be a co-ace in 2017 which will go a LONG way in helping.  Ellis has the stuff to pitch alongside Heaney or Skaggs, he just needs time to develop, putting him on pace for 2017.  Smith pitch with Shoemaker, with each having generally the same fastball, and each having a good off-speed pitch. 

 

This all serves to simply say, the Angels future pitching should be good-not-great.  Richards, Newcomb, Heaney, Ellis and Skaggs is a 1.5, 1.5, 3, 3.5 and a 4. This all comes out to 13.5.  If we assume your average rotation has a 1,2,3,4 and 5, which is 15. 

[m0nkey]

I don't see how this makes him greedy

[ettin]

Ok, what would you be willing to pay him to come to the Angels and what do you think he will get? I would be willing to offer him the same deal they thought he would agree to three years ago, 5 years $125 million. What do I think he will get, probably 6 years $162 million, right around $27 million a year. He will probably stay in the NL since he likes to hit and would probably have to be blown away in order to come back to the AL, that is when you see the 7th or even 8th year added to his deal.

I found it interesting to learn recently that he has a real interest in a front office position after his playing days are done and that he loves analyzing young players. This Grienke is a different guy than the one that started his career and had social anxiety issues and almost failed because of it. In a weird way I am almost "proud" (not really the right word) of his growth as a person the last several years, good for him. Not sure they are allowed to tack on a personal services type of contract on his players contract to give him a front office gig, but if you can, that might be the way to sign him and give you an edge over the competition.

 

Both Price and Greinke are shooting for $30MM per year and they will both get it in all likelihood. There is a flood of cash out there and several teams have salary space so the Dodgers need to be careful here if they think they will get both Price and Greinke. I suspect they want Price more than Greinke.

 

AJ said 6/180 and that is probably where he'll end up.

 

As GotBeer said personal service contracts were eliminated after Pujols signed as MLB saw it as a loophole to the Competitive Balance Tax calculations (personal service contracts don't count towards AAV).

 

For the Angels either Greinke or Price would be a needed front-end starter. We'll have to pay Price 7/210 or 8/240 and Greinke 5/150 or 6/180.

 

[Jay]

I don't see how this makes him greedy

 

I don't either especially when you consider Arte Moreno has made about $1 billion since he bought the team.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I don't either especially when you consider Arte Moreno has made about $1 billion since he bought the team.

exactly. And that goes for every owner.

The players make more money that aNy of us will ever fathom. But theyre making someone else (owners, media companies, a slew of companies via endorsement) even richer.

[Tyler]

I think $30 mill a year will be the theme this offseason. I don't see length being the main factor for signing anymore.

[Tyler]

Both Price and Greinke are shooting for $30MM per year and they will both get it in all likelihood. There is a flood of cash out there and several teams have salary space so the Dodgers need to be careful here if they think they will get both Price and Greinke. I suspect they want Price more than Greinke.

 

AJ said 6/180 and that is probably where he'll end up.

 

As GotBeer said personal service contracts were eliminated after Pujols signed as MLB saw it as a loophole to the Competitive Balance Tax calculations (personal service contracts don't count towards AAV).

 

For the Angels either Greinke or Price would be a needed front-end starter. We'll have to pay Price 7/210 or 8/240 and Greinke 5/150 or 6/180.

 

Didn't see this till now, but I think you're spot on.