Angels expected to look for a big bat

[gotbeer]

Ok so then add in the 3 million tickets sold and you have another $80-100 million. That is before selling any food or concessions.

 

Food is actually a very small amount that the Angels get.  This was shown in the leaked financial statements.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

Personally, I think Heyward would thrive hitting in the #2 spot in the line-up with Trout hitting behind him; however his price is just going to be way too damn high.  

 

Heyward may cost 25 million a year, so why not get Fowley who will cost 15 million a year and he would give the Angels a great lead-off hitter.  It will also give the Angels the money to get other free agents as well.

 

Fowler may be the way to go, but the way I see the Hayward situation is this. He's so young that he is going to want an opt out claus in his contract. Pay the man his money, give him an opt out claus after year 4. He has the motivation to go out there every day to earn than next big pay day at 30 years old, and the Angels end up off the hook in terms of long term money into his 30's and high risk at the back end of the deal. 

 

This seems like win win.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Okay, so yes it is rare that a 26 year old is a free agent but he just isn't that spectacular of a free agent. He's a good player but far from superstar status. You are citing WAR as if its the end all in determining FA value, which I disagree with, especially if you are trying to extrapolate that to a decade from now. I don't think either Gordon or Heyward are worth what you have proposed, though I could envision some dumb teams giving them that average value, but 10 years for Heyward? I don't see that happening. I sure as **** don't think he gets 10 years and $250 million. And sure, bookmark away!

 

Have you watched Heyward play? I'm no joke serious when I say I'm not sure I've ever seen a better defensive corner outfielder.

 

No matter what the Angels do this off season they will have a mediocre pitching staff next season, and they will still be playing in a big park with a big outfield. Sure we can sign a David Price who will be great 1 out of every 5 days, or we can bring in some guys who bolster the defense and save runs no matter who is on the mound. 

[Mark68]

 

He's definitely big.

 

And left-handed.

 

And a third baseman.

[AngelsLakersFan]

If I were an astros fan, I wouldn't mind a 10 year deal to heyward. They could take the risk without it hurting their franchise.

 

If he turned out to be a bust for the angels, there would be no recovering from that...

 

Look at it this way. The Angels have no farm. They have very few young cost controlled talents or tradeable assets. They have the best player in baseball on a wonderfully team friendly deal. They have 3 huge contracts coming off the books soon. If they aren't going to spend some money this offseason then the team should trade Trout to an organization interested in fielding a decent team.

[tdawg87]

I hope the Angels can trade Cowgill and Featherston for Harper, and then trade Santiago and a lower level prospect for Nolan Arenado. Once they've done that, they can trade Tropeano straight up to the Cubbies for Arrieta. Sign Darren O'Day for 2 years/50 dollars and call it an offseason.

[Stradling]

I hope the Angels can trade Cowgill and Featherston for Harper, and then trade Santiago and a lower level prospect for Nolan Arenado. Once they've done that, they can trade Tropeano straight up to the Cubbies for Arrieta. Sign Darren O'Day for 2 years/50 dollars and call it an offseason.

I only want those guys if they agree to contract extensions.

[tdawg87]

But then they'll cost too much and will decline. Harper has Crawford written all over him.

[Stradling]

But then they'll cost too much and will decline. Harper has Crawford written all over him.

He had a bad September, decline.

[HeavenlyHalos]

What the difference between giving Heyward 10 years and Cespedes 6 years?

 

Come on now... 4 additional years is a lot riskier, especially at the high average annual salary Heyward would command. Perhaps his biggest value is his defense which is hard to effectively measure, and will likely deteriorate in the last 5 years of the deal. His offensive numbers are good, but he's a career 114 OPS+ and people think he is getting 10 years and $250 million. I just don't see it. For sanity reasons, I hope that he doesn't get it either.

[NrM]

Look at it this way. The Angels have no farm. They have very few young cost controlled talents or tradeable assets. They have the best player in baseball on a wonderfully team friendly deal. They have 3 huge contracts coming off the books soon. If they aren't going to spend some money this offseason then the team should trade Trout to an organization interested in fielding a decent team.

 

 

Which only means they will have to spend even more money to fill out the roster because they don't have the talent on the way.

Blowing your entire load on one player when you'll still need to find talent outside of the org for 75% of your roster would be a disaster,.

As you said, they have a lot of players coming off the books within the next few years, with no talent to replace them.

 

And I think you, stradling and others are over estimating how much money they will have freed up.

Richards and Calhoun will be making 15-20 million a year when Hamilton's contract expires.

 

Edit: There's also the fact that Trout(34 Million) and Pujols(27 million) will be making a combined 61 million in 2018. Add in Heyward(25-30 million). That comes out to around 90 million a year committed to 3 players.

 

90 ****ing million committed to 3 players.... That just sounds batshit crazy to me.

 

Meanwhile, the Astros entire roster is currently under 70 million.

Edited October 14, 2015 by Poozy

[HeavenlyHalos]

Have you watched Heyward play? I'm no joke serious when I say I'm not sure I've ever seen a better defensive corner outfielder.

 

No matter what the Angels do this off season they will have a mediocre pitching staff next season, and they will still be playing in a big park with a big outfield. Sure we can sign a David Price who will be great 1 out of every 5 days, or we can bring in some guys who bolster the defense and save runs no matter who is on the mound. 

 

Yes I have. And yes, he is very good, albeit as a corner outfielder which has less value than a CFer would bring. That skill, as I mentioned above, will deteriorate in the latter part of that 10 year deal. A deal I hope the Angels don't think about making. I'm not saying I wouldn't want him or anything, I just don't think he's worth anywhere near 10 years and $250 million. Not that I think he will get that, which was the whole reason I joined this topic.

[stormngt]

I maybe mistaken but isn't a better deal than Trout?

I think Hayward gets 7 years $230m, opt out after year 4 ($35m per year for the first 4). Maybe stretch the opt out to year 5 and decrease the salary proportionally.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I maybe mistaken but isn't a better deal than Trout?

 

 

Ya but you can't compare the two. Trout's was a contract extension when he was making $500k per year. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

Which only means they will have to spend even more money to fill out the roster because they don't have the talent on the way.

Blowing your entire load on one player when you'll still need to find talent outside of the org for 75% of your roster would be a disaster,.

As you said, they have a lot of players coming off the books within the next few years, with no talent to replace them.

 

And I think you, stradling and others are over estimating how much money they will have freed up.

Richards and Calhoun will be making 15-20 million a year when Hamilton's contract expires.

 

Edit: There's also the fact that Trout(34 Million) and Pujols(27 million) will be making a combined 61 million in 2018. Add in Heyward(25-30 million). That comes out to around 90 million committed to 3 players a year.

 

90 ****ing million committed to 3 players.... That just sounds batshit crazy to me.

 

Meanwhile, the Astros entire roster is currently under 70 million.

 

These are all very fair points. The way I see it though, a lot can change in just a few years.  This team absolutely should be rebuilding right now, but we have a window with the best player in the game and we are going to go for it. We are not taking a long term view here, the long term view tells us to sell everything off and start over.

 

We are in a tough spot for the reasons you stated, but we are going for it, and we have to go for it 100%. We can't hedge our bets against failure and expect to succeed. If we are to compete we need talents like Hayward to get us there. Your Astros payroll example shows this all the more to be true. When they decide to start spending money 87 wins isn't going to be good enough anymore. The one thing we have is money, so they need to either spend it, or rebuild.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Yes I have. And yes, he is very good, albeit as a corner outfielder which has less value than a CFer would bring. That skill, as I mentioned above, will deteriorate in the latter part of that 10 year deal. A deal I hope the Angels don't think about making. I'm not saying I wouldn't want him or anything, I just don't think he's worth anywhere near 10 years and $250 million. Not that I think he will get that, which was the whole reason I joined this topic.

 

I agree, but I don't think the Angels would have to commit to a 10 year deal, and if they do, that decline has to be built in. Instead I'm pretty sure you'll see Hayward get an opt out after year 4 or 5, with a very high salary in those seasons. In the end he'll get the security of the long term deal, but in practice it is probably going to be an expensive 4 or 5 year deal that runs right through the prime years of one of the best players in the game - regardless of where his value comes from.

Edited October 14, 2015 by AngelsLakersFan

[AngelsFanSince86]

Just one thing I would like to point out that a lot of people seem to be missing.  Everyone is comparing Fowler, Cespedes, and Heyward based on their career numbers.  While that is mostly valid for Fowler and Cespedes, Heyward is just entering his prime.  The chances are that we have not seen his best years and so acting like what we see is what we get is misleading.  It is not that farfetched to think he will be 120-130 OPS+ guy from here on out.  As he gets older he will likely gain more power and lose a bit of speed.  

 

Also, as a side note, Heyward is as good at getting on base as Fowler, hits for better average, steals more bases, has more power, and plays superior defense.  

 

Edit:  Essentially Heyward is almost a 5 tool player.  He plays elite defense, has an elite arm, hits for average, steals bases and has some power (which like I said is likely to improve through time).  He could very well develop into a legit 5 tool player. These types of players don't come around very often and it is ever more rare that one hit free agency before what will likely be the best years of his career.  I definitely understand the concern about not being able to fill other holes because of the salary this will take up.  I think Arte just needs to bite the bullet.  He has a real opportunity to surround Trout with top tier talent for years to come.  I would hope this contract wouldn't make him feel tied down.  He either has to be all in or not.  If not then I agree they shouldn't sign Heyward because there are too many other holes. 

Edited October 14, 2015 by AngelsFanSince86

[gotbeer]

Jason Heyward calls his fit with the Cardinals an “ideal situation”

 

I'm just getting flashbacks of the Pujols signing.  And that's not a good thing.

[ABC]

Which only means they will have to spend even more money to fill out the roster because they don't have the talent on the way.

Blowing your entire load on one player when you'll still need to find talent outside of the org for 75% of your roster would be a disaster,.

As you said, they have a lot of players coming off the books within the next few years, with no talent to replace them.

 

And I think you, stradling and others are over estimating how much money they will have freed up.

Richards and Calhoun will be making 15-20 million a year when Hamilton's contract expires.

 

Edit: There's also the fact that Trout(34 Million) and Pujols(27 million) will be making a combined 61 million in 2018. Add in Heyward(25-30 million). That comes out to around 90 million a year committed to 3 players.

 

90 ****ing million committed to 3 players.... That just sounds batshit crazy to me.

 

Meanwhile, the Astros entire roster is currently under 70 million.

 

Let's see the roster salary when they have to pay for FA years. And then add FAs because they already paid for the homegrown FA years and have holes to fill.

[VariousCrap]

Just one thing I would like to point out that a lot of people seem to be missing.  Everyone is comparing Fowler, Cespedes, and Heyward based on their career numbers.  While that is mostly valid for Fowler and Cespedes, Heyward is just entering his prime.  The chances are that we have not seen his best years and so acting like what we see is what we get is misleading.  It is not that farfetched to think he will be 120-130 OPS+ guy from here on out.  As he gets older he will likely gain more power and lose a bit of speed.  

 

Also, as a side note, Heyward is as good at getting on base as Fowler, hits for better average, steals more bases, has more power, and plays superior defense.  

 

Edit:  Essentially Heyward is almost a 5 tool player.  He plays elite defense, has an elite arm, hits for average, steals bases and has some power (which like I said is likely to improve through time).  He could very well develop into a legit 5 tool player. These types of players don't come around very often and it is ever more rare that one hit free agency before what will likely be the best years of his career.  I definitely understand the concern about not being able to fill other holes because of the salary this will take up.  I think Arte just needs to bite the bullet.  He has a real opportunity to surround Trout with top tier talent for years to come.  I would hope this contract wouldn't make him feel tied down.  He either has to be all in or not.  If not then I agree they shouldn't sign Heyward because there are too many other holes. 

 

 

 

I think most people agree that Heyward is better than Fowler, but he is also going to cost a ton more money.  The Angels have a lot of holes to fill and if they sign Heyward, there is less of a chance they can fill those holes.  Heyward may cost 25 million a year and Fowler at the most would cost 15 million a year.  Signing Fowler would mean being able to to sign Zobrist/Murphy for 2B too.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Another thing about heyward (and others like him) im not sure hes "just hitting his prime". Sure, the normal peak years are 27-32...but thats because most guys hit mlb from about 22-24/5. So basically late 20s, youre still in young guy shape, with a few years experience now. A guy like heyward has already been around the block because he came up so young, and probably isnt getting into better shape.

Im not saying he cant, but i dont think its likely (not just with him). A change of parks/leagues i can see having an effect, but i dont think his skill will suddenly kick in in his 6th or so year in the league. I dont think at 28 he (or anyone else) will suddenly become a more powerful hitter, a more patient hitter, faster, better arm etc. Again, its just the common age guys peak because they usually are entering their 4th year or so, know the pitchers and parks better, etc

[Angel Oracle]

And he won't hit for increased power with the ridiculously high RCF/RF wall.

He'll hit more doubles.

[Homebrewer]

Adam wrote:
<Heyward and Zobrist hitting 1-2 would definitely balance out the line-up>

^^^^Scioscia is already thinking of ways he can mess this up.^^^^^

[Angel Oracle]

People talk about Heyward's youth, but Cespedes has probably not played that many more games than Heyward (between Cuba and MLB).

Isn't the Cuban league season a significantly shorter one than MLB's season?

 

Get Cespedes AND an OBP guy for 2B or 3B, and the lineup will be that much better in 2016.

Assuming the Ghostly one can actually hit MLB pitching with RISP, like he USED to do.

[AngelsFanSince86]

Another thing about heyward (and others like him) im not sure hes "just hitting his prime". Sure, the normal peak years are 27-32...but thats because most guys hit mlb from about 22-24/5. So basically late 20s, youre still in young guy shape, with a few years experience now. A guy like heyward has already been around the block because he came up so young, and probably isnt getting into better shape.

Im not saying he cant, but i dont think its likely (not just with him). A change of parks/leagues i can see having an effect, but i dont think his skill will suddenly kick in in his 6th or so year in the league. I dont think at 28 he (or anyone else) will suddenly become a more powerful hitter, a more patient hitter, faster, better arm etc. Again, its just the common age guys peak because they usually are entering their 4th year or so, know the pitchers and parks better, etc

 

Players OPS+ through age 26 season (I'll call that "before") and then since:

 

Cano before: 111 

and since: 138 

 

Torii before: 98 

since: 113

 

McCutchen before: 139

since: 155

 

Colby Rasmus: 103

since: 110

 

Fowler: 101

since: 110

 

Miggy: 141

since: 172

 

Alex Gordon:  95

since: 121

 

Cain: 100

Since: 107

 

Pujols last few years have made his stats since age 27 worse, but his best and most powerful years were age 28-30 despite being in the league from a very young age.

 

I just typed in a bunch of OFers I could think of plus a couple other random players I know have been around since they were very young.  Its harder to do for retired players because the back end of their careers, but what you find is that most players take a jump in their late 20's or early 30's (or both) in terms of OPS+.  He isn't "suddenly" getting more powerful.  He is getting bigger as he gets older and is reaching his physical prime.  A players prime isn't just about how long they have been playing.  Its about a human beings body typically being at its physical best at a certain age, typically from 27-32.  This has been documented over and over and over and players that do not follow this trend are the exception, not the rule. This isn't like a pitcher who has logged a certain amount of innings.  Batters indeed can become more disciplined and more powerful at the plate over time.  

 

Its kind of ridiculous.  Everyone hates paying for players past achievements, but as soon as a player comes around where we could actually pay for future achievements then he is somehow already past his prime at age 26...

 

Edit:  Meant to say that some of the guys posted a modest increase (such as Rasmus and Fowler who have only had 2 and 3 seasons, respectively, since their age 26 season), but even a 7% increase puts Heyward at 121.  That falls within the 120-130 OPS+ range I placed him in. 

Edited October 14, 2015 by AngelsFanSince86