Angels expected to look for a big bat

[HeavenlyHalos]

I think you can pencil Heyward in for .280/.370 35 DB 15 HR 15 SB and gold glove level defense for the next 7 years. He'll require 10 years 250 million. It's an overpay, but for the majority of the contract, you have a guaranteed good-not-great player.

 

Hahahaha. No he won't. And if he does, than to that I say fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucccccccckkkkkk nooooooooooooo.

[Docwaukee]

I think heyward is gonna get 10 yrs plus an opt out.  But not aav of 25 mil.  

 

I am thinking 10/180.  maybe 10/200

 

Cespedes is gonna get around 6/130.  

[HeavenlyHalos]

If a player with a career 114 OPS+ gets a 10 year deal than deity of choice help us all.

[ettin]

I think heyward is gonna get 10 yrs plus an opt out.  But not aav of 25 mil.  

 

I am thinking 10/180.  maybe 10/200

 

Cespedes is gonna get around 6/130.  

 

Doc you're right about the Opt Out but he will get 10/$250 or very close to it. I speak about it in my Primer series (late in the series) of which the first part should be posted tomorrow.

[Sciosciapath]

What do you enjoy more, stradling

 

eating or arguing

[HeavenlyHalos]

So on this page alone, Scotty, Doc, and Ettin all believe that Heyward gets a 10 year deal. Where the hell is this coming from? He is a good player to be sure, but I have no idea why any team would give him that lengthy of a contract. His 162 game average is 19 homers, .268/.353/.431/.784. He has been fairly consistent and a good player, but unspectacular offensively. Are you basing this all of his WAR numbers (which are heavily influenced on dWar) and his age? If some team is dumb enough to give him ten years at $250 million, as Scotty and ettin seem to believe, I hope it's not the Angels. I also doubt that any team gives him that many years or dollars, let alone both.

[Stradling]

What do you enjoy more, stradling

eating or arguing

Eating

[Stradling]

So on this page alone, Scotty, Doc, and Ettin all believe that Heyward gets a 10 year deal. Where the hell is this coming from? He is a good player to be sure, but I have no idea why any team would give him that lengthy of a contract. His 162 game average is 19 homers, .268/.353/.431/.784. He has been fairly consistent and a good player, but unspectacular offensively. Are you basing this all of his WAR numbers (which are heavily influenced on dWar) and his age? If some team is dumb enough to give him ten years at $250 million, as Scotty and ettin seem to believe, I hope it's not the Angels. I also doubt that any team gives him that many years or dollars, let alone both.

I'm not agreeing with the years or dollars but I'm sure it's based on the fact that he's only 26 years old and he's been a consistently good player. I'm sure he will get no less than 8 years. I'm also sure he will get close to $20 million a year. How many 26 year old free agents are there? That would mean you came up at 20 years old and never signed an extension. If I had my choice I would take Heyward over either of the other two.

[Second Base]

Keep in mind folks, I didn't say I wanted to pay Heyward 250 million across 10 years, just that he'll get that.

[bloodbrother]

Just wanted to say that while I think it would be a good idea for the Angels to shop/trade Santiago in the offseason for a bat....that bat better not be Brett Gardner. All that does is make the Angels older and adds on more payroll.

 

They need to deal him for a bat that's under team control for another couple seasons. Santiago is Arg elig for the next 2 years and is a FA in 2018.

[Troll Daddy]

Will the Dodgers consider trading Puig this off season. He's owed just under $20M through 2018. If so ... would this be a target for consideration?

[Angel Oracle]

I can see it now.

Yet another .300 OBP player is added, and Scioscia touts him as an important player.

Scioscia must think this is the 1910s, when control pitchers were the norm.

[VariousCrap]

Doc you're right about the Opt Out but he will get 10/$250 or very close to it. I speak about it in my Primer series (late in the series) of which the first part should be posted tomorrow.

 

 

 

MLBTradeRumors predicts his contract will be 8 years with an opt out after 4 years.  I think Doc is 100% correct with is 8 year prediction.

Edited October 13, 2015 by VariousCrap

[VariousCrap]

Will the Dodgers consider trading Puig this off season. He's owed just under $20M through 2018. If so ... would this be a target for consideration?

 

 

 

Nope.  He is a clubhouse cancer.

[VariousCrap]

Eating

 

 

 

How about eating while arguing?  

[AngelsLakersFan]

I think heyward is gonna get 10 yrs plus an opt out.  But not aav of 25 mil.  

 

I am thinking 10/180.  maybe 10/200

 

Cespedes is gonna get around 6/130.  

 

I think Hayward gets 7 years $230m, opt out after year 4 ($35m per year for the first 4). Maybe stretch the opt out to year 5 and decrease the salary proportionally.

[gotbeer]

MLBTradeRumors predicts his contract will be 8 years with an opt out after 4 years.  I think Doc is 100% correct with is 8 year prediction.

 

MLBTradeRumors is a must read right now for those that like the offseason.  It's their time to shine.  

 

Here are 3 recent articles worth taking note.

 

Qualifying Offer Value Set At $15.8MM

Title is self explanatory.  If you want to get someone with a qualifying offer, it'll be $15.8 million.  

 

Poll: Should Daniel Murphy Receive A Qualifying Offer?

They are listing the pros and cons.  And looks like the pros have it.  At about 80%, including the sign and trade options.  

 

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

 

Why the White Sox?  Well, first they are one of the few that MLBTR has looked at.  But it seems that the White Sox have the same needs as the Angels.  

 

 

The White Sox should be in the market for at least one regular corner outfielder, as well as another player who can help out.  The free agent market features four excellent options in Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, andAlex Gordon.  All of them are projected to earn $100MM+ and more than $20MM per season.  There are ways to fit such a signing into the team’s payroll, though it would require most of their available resources.  There is a tier of outfielders below this group in the $8-15MM salary range, such as Dexter Fowler, Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, Austin Jackson, Steve Pearce, andColby Rasmus.  The trade market could include Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, Marcell Ozuna, and Yasiel Puig.  Ozuna would be particularly interesting for Chicago, as he’s yet to reach arbitration and will be earning less than $600K.  He’ll be appealing to many teams, however.

 

 

Third Base.

 

Third base is another question mark for the White Sox.  Saladino, Mike Olt, andMatt Davidson are in-house options.  Juan Uribe could be a fun pickup on the free agent market, and David Freese will be out there as well.  Trade options include Todd Frazier, Martin Prado, Daniel Murphy, Trevor Plouffe, andLuis Valbuena.  One sleeper could be Korean third baseman Jae-gyun Hwang, who might be posted by the Lotte Giants.

 

 

and second base.

 

 

 

This year, second base was handled mainly by Carlos Sanchez and Micah Johnson.  It’s yet another potential area of upgrade, with Daniel Murphy andHowie Kendrick profiling as the top free agents and Brandon Phillips andNeil Walker looking like trade candidates.  One free agent we haven’t mentioned yet is Ben Zobrist, who MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk pegged as a potential White Sox target given their multitude of needs and the veteran’s versatility.  However, the 34-year-old Zobrist could seek the Victor Martinez contract (four years, $68MM), which the White Sox were wise to avoid last winter.  Murphy is a younger player who should cost less than Zobrist and can at least handle both second and third base, though he’d likely cost the White Sox their second round draft pick.

 

[Angel Oracle]

If Heyward gets even 8 years/$225 million, MLB is not long for survival as a major sports entity. 

[ettin]

So on this page alone, Scotty, Doc, and Ettin all believe that Heyward gets a 10 year deal. Where the hell is this coming from? He is a good player to be sure, but I have no idea why any team would give him that lengthy of a contract. His 162 game average is 19 homers, .268/.353/.431/.784. He has been fairly consistent and a good player, but unspectacular offensively. Are you basing this all of his WAR numbers (which are heavily influenced on dWar) and his age? If some team is dumb enough to give him ten years and $250 million, as Scotty and ettin seem to believe, I hope it's not the Angels. I also doubt that any team gives him that many years or dollars, let alone both.

So first of all a 26 year old hitting the free agent market is pretty rare nowadays. The fact that he is a young, athletic corner OF who can produce offensively and defensively (especially defensively) and can play all 3 OF positions combined with the very young age makes him a very attractive target to teams.

Because of that he will get paid and he will get a very long contract length. He will probably very well get an opt out clause that will allow him to opt out of the contract at the 4 or 5 year mark. He will get all of this in spite of the fact that it will cost a 1st round draft pick.

Every year the market surprises people and they underestimate what the free agent market will pay. This year it might even be more surprising.

Heyward has averaged 5 WAR over the last 4 seasons. Assuming he averages another 5 WAR over the next 4 years and then starts to degrade by the standard .5 WAR per season that is 39.5 WAR over 10 years.

The free agent price per WAR will be about $7.7MM/WAR according to my calculations (and I'm probably off a bit but most would agree it is over $7MM). Assuming another 10% WAR increase year over year, Heyward, based on his total projected WAR is worth over $400MM!

So Heavenly if defensive WAR is BS (and I would even agree that it probably doesn't accurately measure a player's contribution) let's hack off 40% of his projected worth.... $400MM-$160MM = $240MM.

If you think this Heyward estimate is bad I've read rumors that David Price will get $30MM per year (on a 7 or 8 year contract)!?!?!

We live in an environment of run prevention these days and teams are paying for it simply because it has been mis-valued in the past. Elite defenders save runs so I don't think anyone here would argue that it does have SOME value. How much is certainly open to argument but what can't be argued is that Heyward is a premium defender. He'll get paid for that too.

The other thing to consider too is that there are several teams out there that have a lot of cash to spend this offseason. Teams like the Red Sox and Cubs are flush with cash. The Dodgers and Yankees are the Yankees (pond scum). Giants and Nationals have cash flow too. Even small market teams like the Royals and Twins have payroll space. More cash = more teams ready to spend = prices going up.

I read an article yesterday saying Alex Gordon will get $20MM per season! Do you think that Alex Gordon, a specific, niche left fielder (and a good one to be sure) is worth, value-wise, more than a $25MM Heyward?

So yeah Heyward will get a 10 year contract and it will be pretty darn close to $250MM. Bookmark the page Heavenly and I'll eat crow if it makes you happy.

[Angelsfirst]

If Heyward gets even 8 years/$225 million, MLB is not long for survival as a major sports entity.

Seriously! Even 8 years for Heyward is ridiculous. We've seen future Hall of Famers not live up to their contracts, much less slightly above average outfielders.

[ettin]

Seriously! Even 8 years for Heyward is ridiculous. We've seen future Hall of Famers not live up to their contracts, much less slightly above average outfielders.

My question is why do people think that free agency is supposed to give you value? Our former GM recently emphatically stated that free agency should not be a resource that should be visited often because you aren't getting value out of it most of the time.

Let me put it a different way do you think a team should pay $150MM-200MM for Chris Davis or trade some of their 2-3 players/prospects (giving up say $40MM in current prospect value) for Mitch Moreland?

I'd have to think the Moreland play is a lot better value wise right?

Bottom line is logic doesn't have a place in free agency. It is completely market driven paying for mostly past performance and current and near-term performance. That is why Heyward will get paid so much because he is actually at an age where he will continue to give you more of that "past"performance than current or future, lesser, performance.

[Chimi]

Heyward is young enough where he can sign a 5 year deal and still sin an 8-10 year deal later on. I don't see the love for him though.

[gotbeer]

Looking at MLBTR's article on the White Sox.  I looked up the outfielders.

 

Dexter Fowler looks like a solid second choice if you aren't going for a power bat.  

 

.750-.770 OPS his entire career including a .774 OPS in Houston.  So there is at least a baseline for if he will be able to do it in the AL.

OBP, .363 in his MLB career.  I usually don't like this stat for power hitters. But...

Almost all his starts have been #1.  So he's a pure leadoff hitter.

He steals some bases, but not much.  Then again, that's the angle the Angels have gone to anyways.

He'll be 30.   So probably a 4-5 year contract?  And as the article pointed out, $8-15 million a year.  

 

This guy IMO for price, length, need, and risk is a much better option then Heyward.  

[Glen]

My question is why do people think that free agency is supposed to give you value? Our former GM recently emphatically stated that free agency should not be a resource that should be visited often because you aren't getting value out of it most of the time.

Let me put it a different way do you think a team should pay $150MM-200MM for Chris Davis or trade some of their 2-3 players/prospects (giving up say $40MM in current prospect value) for Mitch Moreland?

I'd have to think the Moreland play is a lot better value wise right?

Bottom line is logic doesn't have a place in free agency. It is completely market driven paying for mostly past performance and current and near-term performance. That is why Heyward will get paid so much because he is actually at an age where he will continue to give you more of that "past"performance than current or future, lesser, performance.

Excellent post.

[Angelsfirst]

My question is why do people think that free agency is supposed to give you value? Our former GM recently emphatically stated that free agency should not be a resource that should be visited often because you aren't getting value out of it most of the time.

Let me put it a different way do you think a team should pay $150MM-200MM for Chris Davis or trade some of their 2-3 players/prospects (giving up say $40MM in current prospect value) for Mitch Moreland?

I'd have to think the Moreland play is a lot better value wise right?

Bottom line is logic doesn't have a place in free agency. It is completely market driven paying for mostly past performance and current and near-term performance. That is why Heyward will get paid so much because he is actually at an age where he will continue to give you more of that "past"performance than current or future, lesser, performance.

"Bottom line is logic doesn't have a place in free agency. It is completely market driven paying for mostly past performance and current and near-term performance."

This is exactly why I think the Angels front office should look elsewhere to try and bolster our offense. As you said, most of the time you don't get value out of these contracts. So why would we put ourselves in that position again?

I could see risking signing a player who is an elite slugger or even a top tier lead off guy. Even that is a risk. But to invest in a guy who really hasn't put up anywhere near the numbers that would justify giving him the kind of contract that people are speculating? Doesn't seem worth it to me.

And just because he is young, doesn't make his career numbers so far look any better. I guess my point is that even if his numbers diminish a little bit, which is very possible due to the switching of leagues and big contract pressure, he will be a bust just based on the fact that his numbers weren't a game changer to begin with.