Spin Forum Dumping Bin

[Taylor]

#draintheswamp

[nate]

As was obvious from the beginning... https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/09/northrop-grumman-reportedly-at-fault-for-loss-of-zuma-satellite.html

Paging @Thomas

[Thomas]

10 minutes ago, nate said:

Paging @Thomas

Yes?

[nate]

11 hours ago, Thomas said:

Yes?

I recall you defending NG when the whole thing happened.

As I said back then.  No way the FAA and NASA would allow SpaceX to keep flying if there were any indications that they were at fault.

[gotbeer]

https://nypost.com/2018/04/10/the-largest-black-lives-matter-page-on-facebook-has-been-exposed-as-a-fraud/

 

Time to bring sanctions against Australia and kick out it's diplomats.

[Thomas]

46 minutes ago, nate said:

I recall you defending NG when the whole thing happened.

As I said back then.  No way the FAA and NASA would allow SpaceX to keep flying if there were any indications that they were at fault.

Your memory is shakier than a Trump alibi. I stated the need to allow the reported  investigation to proceed due to insane complexity of satellite development and construction and space payload delivery. Especially assuming this is a new product. Also assuming the payload wasn’t actually delivered exactly as promised which isn’t that unlikely considering the alleged mission type. I’m still  not sure how that’s considered the unwise path.  So much testing goes into these satellites which is directly overseen by the customer. So when something goes wrong it’s gets very complicated and the blame becomes a web.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/lockheed-s-latest-delays-on-satellites-may-open-door-to-boeing

On a mildly related note I did get to go up and see these guys last week. Annoyingly the In n Out deployment in Denver has also been wrought with delay and anguish.

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/gps.html

[nate]

22 minutes ago, Thomas said:

Your memory is shakier than a Trump alibi. I stated the need to allow the reported  investigation to proceed due to insane complexity of satellite development and construction and space payload delivery. Especially assuming this is a new product. Also assuming the payload wasn’t actually delivered exactly as promised which isn’t that unlikely considering the alleged mission type. I’m still  not sure how that’s considered the unwise path.  So much testing goes into these satellites which is directly overseen by the customer. So when something goes wrong it’s gets very complicated and the blame becomes a web.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/lockheed-s-latest-delays-on-satellites-may-open-door-to-boeing

On a mildly related note I did get to go up and see these guys last week. Annoyingly the In n Out deployment in Denver has also been wrought with delay and anguish.

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/gps.html

If SpaceX was even the least bit at fault, NASA would never have allowed them to proceed to launch CRS missions.  FAA would have grounded their fleet until the investigation finished.  As happened with previous anomalies.

And as it was reported from the beginning, it was so classified that NG developed the payload adapter as well as the satellite.

Reading the report is even more brutal than expected, they didn't even realize that the payload was still attached until too late.  NG also just took a huge beating because JWST is delayed another two years and even more over budget.

[Thomas]

21 minutes ago, nate said:

If SpaceX was even the least bit at fault, NASA would never have allowed them to proceed to launch CRS missions.  FAA would have grounded their fleet until the investigation finished.  As happened with previous anomalies.

And as it was reported from the beginning, it was so classified that NG developed the payload adapter as well as the satellite.

Reading the report is even more brutal than expected, they didn't even realize that the payload was still attached until too late.  NG also just took a huge beating because JWST is delayed another two years and even more over budget.

The FAA probably still doesn't have NTK about the details of the flight and probably never will. However even if that wasn’t the case unlike manned missions these agencies aren’t going to stop because of an incident unless there was an glaring concern. And perhaps not even then unless at the potential cost of human life. And even then... The space cargo queue is simply too long. And NG certainly isn’t in that bad of shape when compared to there peers. LM isn’t exactly on the good graces of the industry either having their extremely lucrative GPS prime contract go for rebid which NG funny enough is in contention for. And NG gets paid if the assumed lost cargo is rebuilt. It’s good to be king. It’s better to be a defense contractor. However you keep skipping over the actual argument of making assumptions after the event instead of waiting for the investigation. After these months do you remotely have an argument for this? Or you preprogrammed to go off early like @Glen at his prom?

[nate]

3 minutes ago, Thomas said:

The FAA probably still doesn't have NTK about the details of the flight and probably never will. However even if that wasn’t the case unlike manned missions these agencies aren’t going to stop because of an incident unless there was an glaring concern. And perhaps not even then unless at the potential cost of human life. And even then... The space cargo queue is simply too long. And NG certainly isn’t in that bad of shape when compared to there peers. LM isn’t exactly on the good graces of the industry either having their extremely lucrative GPS prime contract go for rebid which NG funny enough is in contention for. And NG gets paid if the assumed lost cargo is rebuilt. It’s good to be king. It’s better to be a defense contractor. However you keep skipping over the actual argument of making assumptions after the event instead of waiting for the investigation. After these months do you remotely have an argument for this? Or you preprogrammed to go off early like @Glen at his prom?

The FAA has grounded SpaceX twice and Orbital ATK once in the last four years because of anomalies.

They absolutely would ground them, manned or unmanned.

[Thomas]

23 minutes ago, Thomas said:

However you keep skipping over the actual argument of making assumptions after the event instead of waiting for the investigation. After these months do you remotely have an argument for this? Or you preprogrammed to go off early like @Glen at his prom?

 

18 minutes ago, nate said:

<crickets>

Minuteman missle it is.

19 minutes ago, nate said:

The FAA has grounded SpaceX twice and Orbital ATK once in the last four years because of anomalies.

They absolutely would ground them, manned or unmanned.

I think those groundings would be most assuredly in the glaring category.

[nate]

Yes, back to it again, if there was any doubt, the FAA would not issue a launch license if the vehicle could suffer an anomaly.

Additionally, NASA certainly would not allow CRS missions to continue either.  They are incredibly conservative.

And finally, the insurance companies that insure the launch payloads that cost hundreds of millions of dollars, would not issue the policy if they were worried about the launch vehicle.

[Thomas]

4 minutes ago, nate said:

Yes, back to it again, if there was any doubt, the FAA would not issue a launch license if the vehicle could suffer an anomaly.

Additionally, NASA certainly would not allow CRS missions to continue either.  They are incredibly conservative.

And finally, the insurance companies that insure the launch payloads that cost hundreds of millions of dollars, would not issue the policy if they were worried about the launch vehicle.

There is always doubt in space travel. They sent people into space on the shuttle estimating there was a 1/100 chance of catastrophic failure. And the actual rate was worse.  Space cargo unsurprisingly is worse. 5% failure rate is considered acceptable.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-spacex-rocket-reliability-1472754973-htmlstory.html

[nate]

Yep, and that is only when the launch vehicle is in a stable configuration, if there was a doubt about the configuration they would not allow it to launch.

I follow this all very closely... I know all about the risks.

BTW the space shuttle was something like 1 in 70.  The requirements for the new commercial crew contract are something like 1:275.

There should be crew launches on Atlas V and Falcon 9 by early next year which is really great for US space flight since we pay the Russians for seats on the Soyuz right now.

Edited April 10, 2018 by nate

[Thomas]

13 minutes ago, nate said:

BTW the space shuttle was something like 1 in 70.  The requirements for the new commercial crew contract are something like 1:275.

The number varied, especially after an accident. 1:70 was pretty much what actually occurred with two accidents in 135 or so missions. But of course that opinion wasn’t always consistent.

1:100 NASA Engineers

1:100,000 NASA Management 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2011/07/30-years-of-manned-space-flight-the-last-flight-of-the-space-shuttle/

And that estimated 1:9 failure rate on the early missions. Sphincter puckering much? Engineers are conservative. Management generally aren’t as much. Especially when faced with limited technical knowledge, budgets and pressure to “perform the mission”.

 

[Thomas]

That 1:275 goal is probably a pipe dream for the foreseeable future unless something dramatically changes in launch methods.

[nate]

14 minutes ago, Thomas said:

That 1:275 goal is probably a pipe dream for the foreseeable future unless something dramatically changes in launch methods.

Yep, it has already caused delays, especially because NASA took forever to even define what that means.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/17/16900880/nasa-commercial-crew-program-spacex-boeing-astronauts-space-station-delays-safety

[Thomas]

3 minutes ago, nate said:

Yep, it has already caused delays, especially because NASA took forever to even define what that means.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/17/16900880/nasa-commercial-crew-program-spacex-boeing-astronauts-space-station-delays-safety

It’s CYA for NASA. “We wanted and demanded this safety but it was everyone else’s fault when it didn’t actually happen.” Never mind that at this point in our embryonic space history we aren’t capable of it.

[nate]

Fuck face's trade war will hit WI pretty hard.  These people will still vote for him though, because they are ignorant as hell.

 

[mtangelsfan]

Won't help us out here either.

 

[Lou]

22 minutes ago, nate said:

Fuck face's trade war will hit WI pretty hard.  These people will still vote for him though, because they are ignorant as hell.

You only have yourself to blame.  You should have voted for Hillary. 

[Make Angels Great Again]

Dave Rubin talks to Thomas Sowell at the young age of 87. Got excited when I saw this, I thought he retired from any public appearances.

Fun fact, Thomas Sowell was a far leftist when he was young before becoming a brilliant conservative. So him and I have something in common. @red321

 

[Make Angels Great Again]

Watching the interview, I found the discussion about over representation of latino baseball stars vs Japanese pretty funny.

[red321]

29 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

Dave Rubin talks to Thomas Sowell at the young age of 87. Got excited when I saw this, I thought he retired from any public appearances.

Fun fact, Thomas Sowell was a far leftist when he was young before becoming a brilliant conservative. So him and I have something in common. @red321

 

you're both black?

[Make Angels Great Again]

How dare you assume my race.

[Tank]

i can waste time with the best of them, but i'm not watching a 46 minute video.