Andrew Heaney will be a 5th starter at best.

[Chuck]

Interesting group of guys taken before Mike Trout in the draft. 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2009/268323.html

[ELEVEN]

One of my favorite scouting assessments gone wrong is this one from 2003 by John Sickels, who I really like:

 

"Joe Mauer is universally regarded as the best catching prospect in baseball. But Angels farmhand Jeff Mathis isn't far behind."

 

Ouch. Everyone has their mistakes. I thought Mike Colangelo would be a .300-hitting player for the Angels and that Casey Kotchman would regularly hit .300+ with 25 HR. Ouch.

Mike Colangelo became a HOF Ninja Turtle, so there's that.

[Guest]

He really didn't look that great. It's too quick to make a judgement though. 

[Troll Daddy]

Looks like Santiago will be our fifth starter.

[ELEVEN]

Wow, one bad outing in ST and Heaney is a bust now?

[eligrba]

As long as CJ Wilson is a starter, Heaney will not be the #5.

[Stradling]

As long as CJ Wilson is a starter, Heaney will not be the #5.

That being said, CJ has pitched like a major leaguer in spring unlike Heaney. Heaney will be fine, but he certainly isn't blowing away the competition.

[Troll Daddy]

As long as CJ Wilson is a starter, Heaney will not be the #5.

CJ Wilson >>> Heaney

[SoWhat]

So you've never seen Heaney pitch, but already writing him off as a bust? lol you guys are hilarious.

[eligrba]

CJ Wilson >>> Heaney

 

[Hollyw00d]

For the other history revisionists out there, the only reason weaver fell to us in the 04 draft was because of signability issues

[tdawg87]

I saw Brandon Wood play in the minors and thought he'd be an all-star. Harper was supposed to be Trout by now. Weaver was never supposed to be a dominant pitcher. Calhoun wasn't ever going to be a regular player on any roster. Mathis was supposed to be Joe Mauer. Matsuzaka was supposed to be Yu Darvish.

It doesn't matter how good someone is in the minors, it's a crap shoot in 100% of cases. Seeing someone play in the minors or ST doesn't give you a better idea of whether they will make it or not, it's unpredictable in every case. That's my point.

Heaney could end up being great.

 

It's actually literally the only way for scouts to see whether a player "will make it or not".  Many things are unpredictable like you said, but how in the hell else are you going to find out if a guy is ready to make the big league roster?

 

I think you're confusing the highly touted top prospect scouting reports with the entirety of minor league scouting as a whole. While those could realistically be considered a "crap shoot", saying that the entire concept of the minors is a crap shoot 100% of the time is just....wow. I mean, why even have the minor leagues then? Just fill your roster with players who look like they could be good major league players regardless of whether you've seen them play or not and just go from there.

 

BTW Matsuzaka was signed from Japan. He was never a minor league prospect.

Edited March 21, 2015 by tdawg87

[ten ocho recon scout]

Mike Colangelo became a HOF Ninja Turtle, so there's that.

bravo, that was good

[tdawg87]

I never said it wasn't the only way. Pretty much all I'm saying is there is no way to know how good or bad someone will be in MLB until they get there. Even guesses are usually wrong.

 

And I know where Matsuzaka signed from.

 

Well, they don't get there until being scouted extensively in the minors. And yeah, sometimes they fall well short of expectations. But sometimes they meet and even exceed the high expectations. For every Brandon Wood or Jeff Mathis, the Angels have an Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick, or Mike Trout.

 

The point is, 99.9% of all players in the majors today that were drafted and sent to the minors, got their chance because of how they looked in the minors. Do you think Trout would have been the starting center fielder for the Angels in 2012 if he looked like crap at AA the year before? Do you think someone like Kaleb Cowart could win the starting 3B job tomorrow and be an all-star while Kubitza could get called up and look even worse than Brandon Wood?

 

It's not nearly as much of a crapshoot as you make it out to be.

[disarcina]

not sure where Heaney winds up in the Angel plans for the start of 2015 -- but he has NOT been very impressive in his ST outings so far.

 

perhaps he should start the season in the SLC rotation and work on some things........

 

just because he hasn't had a very good spring this year and may not make the team does not mean he won't play a role for the Halos in 2015 (even as a member of the rotation before the season is over) and beyond.

 

I can think of a kid from my hometown who was fighting for a rotation spot with KC last Spring (2014) and had a terrible spring, lost the spot to the rookie hurler Ventura and was sent to AAA.......ended up being called up in May, stuck around had, a turnaround season and now a solid number 2/3 guy in the KC rotation.......a year can make a huge difference.

[tdawg87]

I know. I think my point is being misunderstood. 

 

I think we can both agree that Heaney has the potential to be a crucial part of this team's rotation for years to come.

 

Absolutely. I don't think Kendrick was traded lightly.

[Docwaukee]

I saw Brandon Wood play in the minors and thought he'd be an all-star. Harper was supposed to be Trout by now. Weaver was never supposed to be a dominant pitcher. Calhoun wasn't ever going to be a regular player on any roster. Mathis was supposed to be Joe Mauer. Matsuzaka was supposed to be Yu Darvish.

It doesn't matter how good someone is in the minors, it's a crap shoot in 100% of cases. Seeing someone play in the minors or ST doesn't give you a better idea of whether they will make it or not, it's unpredictable in every case. That's my point.

Heaney could end up being great.

hmmm.  most of this is very difficult to agree with. 

 

I think the individual teams know way more about any of these players, both on their own team as well as others, than any of the national publications that get paid to broadcast their opinion.  All teams aren't going to agree, but they get paid to keep their opinion a secret.  So there will always be potential for major discrepancy between what the media sees and what the teams know or think they know.  

 

I'll give you a very good example:  Jeff Mathis

 

The pundits had him as 1b relative to Mauer.  1st round pick and a top 100 from 2003 to 2006

The guy has some very good minor league seasons up until his AA year where he struggled.  But then in 2005, he did very well in AAA.

So the following year, you lose your starting C to free agency, and even though Mathis makes the team out of spring, he gets a brief look and then gets sent down to stay and the job is given to a different guy who can hit but doesn't play very good D.

Mathis has another very solid year in AAA after being sent down and the following year he doesn't even make the team out of spring.  hmmmmm.  

 

I am not saying that the halos didn't think Mathis bat would develop a bit more.  Clearly they did or they would have moved him a long time prior to showing he couldn't hit at the major league level. 

 

But they knew damn well that his bat wasn't close to Mauers.  When you think someone is going to improve with more at bats, you give them more at bats.  

 

Bottom line is that teams know what they have and the generally know what other teams have.  There is a reason why guys who scout for national publications don't scout for a major league team.  

[dimitrig]

What's wrong with a #5 starter? Do we wanna go back to our #5 starter being "bullpen" or Joe Blanton?

[UndertheHalo]

If he's a consistent #4 or 5 for us in our rotation for some years its a success isn't it ? Maybe he will be as awesome as some of nicer reports say. Or maybe he'll be typical of prospects and a failure.  If he sticks at all thats a win imo.  From what ive seen (and im no scout) his stuff is not as good as Skaggs. He's not as good as Skaggs period in fact, based on what I have seen.  Ive seen him in person in Arizona last week and ive seen him on TV.  I'm yet to watch him and be super impressed.  Still hoping for the best, but like I said, lets not be 2 bummed about a 4th or 5th starter that sticks.  Would be pretty good actually.

[eaterfan]

hmmm.  most of this is very difficult to agree with. 

 

I think the individual teams know way more about any of these players, both on their own team as well as others, than any of the national publications that get paid to broadcast their opinion.  All teams aren't going to agree, but they get paid to keep their opinion a secret.  So there will always be potential for major discrepancy between what the media sees and what the teams know or think they know.  

 

I'll give you a very good example:  Jeff Mathis

 

The pundits had him as 1b relative to Mauer.  1st round pick and a top 100 from 2003 to 2006

The guy has some very good minor league seasons up until his AA year where he struggled.  But then in 2005, he did very well in AAA.

So the following year, you lose your starting C to free agency, and even though Mathis makes the team out of spring, he gets a brief look and then gets sent down to stay and the job is given to a different guy who can hit but doesn't play very good D.

Mathis has another very solid year in AAA after being sent down and the following year he doesn't even make the team out of spring.  hmmmmm.  

 

I am not saying that the halos didn't think Mathis bat would develop a bit more.  Clearly they did or they would have moved him a long time prior to showing he couldn't hit at the major league level. 

 

But they knew damn well that his bat wasn't close to Mauers.  When you think someone is going to improve with more at bats, you give them more at bats.  

 

Bottom line is that teams know what they have and the generally know what other teams have.  There is a reason why guys who scout for national publications don't scout for a major league team.  

 

The Angels let Troy Glaus and Bengie Molina leave in FA so Dallas MacPherson and Jeff Mathis could take their positions. Obviously they knew way more than the pundits.

[ScottT]

The Angels let Troy Glaus and Bengie Molina leave in FA so Dallas MacPherson and Jeff Mathis could take their positions. Obviously they knew way more than the pundits.

 

"The Angels" also let Nolan Ryan walk.  Don't think Dipoto and his front office should be held accountable for that.  

[eaterfan]

"The Angels" also let Nolan Ryan walk. Don't think Dipoto and his front office should be held accountable for that.

Who said anything about DiPoto? The point was made that front offices know more about all the prospects than the pundits. The fact that Mathis was sent down quickly in his first season was used as evidence that the Angels getting office wasn't as high on him as the pundits were. It showed front offices know more than pundits.

My counter to that was the Angels were high enough on the two prospects I mentioned to let good established players leave so it's not as though the front office wasn't high on them too.

If you would prefer we can talk about the A's letting Tejada walk to make room for Crosby and to keep Chavez.

My point is front offices make mistakes too. Scouts, GMs, managers no one is perfect. The pundits do too. A lot. The system isn't perfect but they all do a pretty good job scouting and evaluating trends of thousands of high school, college, and international kids every year. Then add in evaluating the thousands of minor leaguers too and it's more impressive.

[Ohtaniland]

Wow he might not even be a good 5th starter. He's been awful.

[ItzTacosYerrp]

None of our lefties throw strikes

[disarcina]

OK - we can solve all these problems now (based on the posts above).

 

place the following guys on the 25 man roster and let's correct from past wrongs and go get 'em:

 

Nolan Ryan

Troy Glaus

Jeff Mathis

Bengie Molina

 

OK it's all fixed now........

 

Was it Bavasi who said of Nolan Ryan when he traded him away from the Angels -- 'well he was 14-12 last year, I can replace him with two 7-6 pitchers..."  Of course, Bavasi shouldn't take all the blame despite the silly comment -- the plain fact was -- Gene Autry -- a great American and great icon -- was really cheap and didn't want to spend what it would have taken to sign Ryan.  Bavasi was just covering for the Cowboy.......