Yep, Weaver is done...

[Angelsjunky]

http://www.angelswin-forum.com/forums/topic/6909-weaver-is-not-an-ace-anymore/

 

He isn't, if you define "ace" as a Cy Young or near-CY caliber pitcher.

 

Im kidding.  I think its funny because we had a thread like this last year about Weavers velocity falling off and how he was a number 3 starter. 

 

A number 3 is about right.

 

I love how every time Weaver has a really good game we get threads like this, as if the really good game is his norm.

 

He's still a good pitcher, just not the great one he was a few years ago.

Edited March 17, 2015 by Angelsjunky

[ukyah]

i'm just gonna let weaver be weaver, he's earned it.

[ELEVEN]

#freejeredweaver

[Second Base]

Weaver is done.  He's washed up.  

 

He pitched his five innings, exited the field and took a shower. 

[ELEVEN]

One thing I love about Weaver is when the other team scores on him, more often than not I feel like they got themselves a fight now.

[NrM]

dude is still nails at home. They should maximize the amount of starts he gets at home vs the road.

 

2014:

Home: 2.68 ERA

Road: 4.70 ERA

 

2013:

Home: 2.59 ERA

Road: 4.00 ERA

Edited March 17, 2015 by Poozy

[Vegas Halo Fan]

#whythehorseface

 

Fixed.

[Sherlock31]

dude is still nails at home. They should maximize the amount of starts he gets at home vs the road.

 

2014:

Home: 2.68 ERA

Road: 4.70 ERA

 

2013:

Home: 2.59 ERA

Road: 4.00 ERA

 

dude is still nails at home. They should maximize the amount of starts he gets at home vs the road.

 

2014:

Home: 2.68 ERA

Road: 4.70 ERA

 

2013:

Home: 2.59 ERA

Road: 4.00 ERA

So he's an ace at home, a #4 on the road, therefore he's a half ace.

Edited March 17, 2015 by Sherlock31

[Ohtaniland]

Weaver is done. He's been done for about 5 years.

Jeff Weaver

[CaliAngel]

all this thread deserves is a LOL

[bloodbrother]

ST results mean a lot

[QuinlansMinion]

He isn't, if you define "ace" as a Cy Young or near-CY caliber pitcher.

 

 

A number 3 is about right.

 

I love how every time Weaver has a really good game we get threads like this, as if the really good game is his norm.

 

He's still a good pitcher, just not the great one he was a few years ago.

I dont think hes a number 3.  Hes a number 2 at worst.

[Angelsjunky]

I dont think hes a number 3.  Hes a number 2 at worst.

 

I'd say he's a #2 at best. So you're saying he's a #1-2 and I'm saying he's a #2-3. I can live with that, even though the numbers don't support your view.

[Angelsjunky]

Here are some actual numbers. Here is where Weaver ranks among all major leaguers over the last four years, from what was probably his best year in 2011 through 2014. The numbers I'm including are ERA, WAR, and RA9-WAR (from Fangraphs). The difference between the last two is that WAR is heavily based upon peripherals and "Fielding Independent Pitching" - that is, based upon league average fielding and context. RA9-WAR is basically ERA-based WAR. Both have their uses.

 

Year (average fastball velocity): ERA, WAR, RA9-WAR

2011 (89.1): 5, 7, 2

2012 (87.8): 7, 37, 12

2013 (86.5): 27, 53, 40

2014 (86.3): 50, 70, 34

 

Those ranks are out of 80-90ish pitchers that qualified for the ERA title. Technically Weaver didn't qualify in 2013, but I ranked him as if he did.

 

As you can see, in 2011 Weaver was among the best pitchers in baseball - a true staff ace by any definition. In 2012 he was still very good, but his peripherals were slipping as exhibited by having a rather average WAR. This was presumably largely because of the rather large (1.3) drop in his fastball. In 2012 he dropped another big step and became more of a "good" pitcher, with another 1.3 drop in his fastball. 2013 was worse again.

 

So yeah, I'm worried. He isn't done but clearly he isn't the pitcher he was in 2011 (true #1) or even 2012 (a classic #2). Unless the numbers from the last two years are lying, he's a #3 pitcher. I think at this point the best we can reasonably hope for is that he stabilizes at his current level for another two or three years and remains a "big game pitcher" and veteran presence on the staff. But regardless of what he says, if that velocity slips some more it won't be pretty.

Edited March 17, 2015 by Angelsjunky

[nando714]

I put a ton of stock in ST games

[Mark68]

Actually right about Hamilton

Jury's still out on Wilson.

[yk9001]

Discuss...

 

Am I a bad fan to consider putting a link to a box score or something, so I know where this is on the sarcasm meter?

 

I can't be the only one who isn't tracking March 16 games by inning.

 

Or maybe I am.

[Mark68]

[stevestevens]

The first time he has a reaction like this during the year we will all go full on homo all over the Weave.  

 

[Angelsjunky]

"Going homo" over Jered and looking at his performance in an objective manner are not mutually exclusive. I would have happily seen Tim Salmon stay on another few years as a bench player and clubhouse player but boy am I glad he made room for Vlad.

[ELEVEN]

Am I a bad fan to consider putting a link to a box score or something, so I know where this is on the sarcasm meter?

I can't be the only one who isn't tracking March 16 games by inning.

Or maybe I am.

Yep, Sarcasm is done...

[AngelsLakersFan]

Weaver will be topping out at 60 in 12 years.

 

So was Moyer. lawl

[Oz27]

I don't really see Weaver as someone to worry about too much. There's no reasonable way of arguing he isn't in the midst of a serious decline. But he was still a 3 WAR pitcher last year - even if he's in the 2 to 2.5 range this year that's still perfectly acceptable from a fourth starter which is around where he probably is now. He has two years left on his deal and is still good enough to be a solid piece of a starting rotation, just not the leader we thought he once was. Is he going to be worth $37 mil over the next two years? No. But we're not talking about a Hamilton/Wells/GMJ style disaster here - Weaver can still contribute to this team and I'm confident he will for the life of his contract, just not to the extent we'd hoped. Thankfully our rotation looks strong and deep enough that we can still be a very good team, even if Weaver declines a bit further this year.

[NrM]

Still an Ace at Home though 

 

More splits....

2011-2014 Home/ Road ERA s

 

2011: 1.84 / 2.93 

2012: 2.44 / 3.21 

2013: 2.59 / 4.00

2014: 2.68/ 4.70

 

All the advanced metrics show the same trends. If his velocity is still in decline, I think the gap will increase even more. 

Edited March 18, 2015 by Poozy

[dimitrig]

Angel players who have been deemed "done"...

 

Pujols

Hamilton

Freese

Weaver

Wilson

 

Did I miss anyone?

 

Vernon Wells