Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

What is everyone's, or I should say @Homebrewer and @Adam's opinion on the maiden.  Just my thoughts.  But you know a big number is going to come up in the exotics.  Looking at the Arkansas derby, Sonnetteer was absolutely flying in the stretch.  With another furlong, he could have been a lot better than 4th.  Just IMO but with the derby, that style so fits the race.  Let the horses beat each other up in the front end.  Then some horse comes out of the blue in the stretch to nab some money.  It just seems to happen every year.  And probably at 50+ to 1 odds, him showing up would be making it rain.

Or do you guys think he has no shot?

[gotbeer]

Only thing I can find on Sonnetteer.

http://tracksideview.net/2017/04/14/arkansas-derby-notes-classic-empire-sonneteer/

This is before the Arkansas Derby.

Quote

But Keith told me that the horse was going to run very well and would enjoy the distance, that the farther we go, the better off he’ll be. Kind of like Real Quiet. He didn’t show that talent until he was able to run them into the ground in the distance races.”

 

[gotbeer]

Derby Notes, May 1: Always Dreaming Learns Valuable Lessons During Monday Training Hours

[Tank]

6 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

Can't see lookin at lee in the money, but Gormley could absolutely be right there with a decent post.

If I had to bet today my top 4 would be

McCraken

Gormely

Classic Empire

and Thunder Snow

 

i see you've chosen to ignore my advice on who's going to win.

to each his own . . . and enjoy your impending financial loss.

[Homebrewer]

36 minutes ago, Tank said:

i see you've chosen to ignore my advice on who's going to win.

to each his own . . . and enjoy your impending financial loss.

With just a decent post and a fair trip....McCraken wins this one. I have followed every race this entire year, and have been a fairly serious racing fan since the mid 80's. I have followed this 3YO class more closely than I have followed any in my years of being a race fan.

Can I be wrong? Can shit happen? Can the horse fall on his face out of the gate and finish last?

I have never felt as strongly about a KD starter. I will be betting this horse seriously in many ways, and I have never been as confident doing so in the KD ever.

ever

Take it for what it is, It's just my opinion based on 30 years of watching horses.

I'll be putting serious money behind my opinion. 

[Homebrewer]

If my horse draws a bad post then everything I have watched and all I believe are for nothing...but if he has a decent spot in the gate, I'll be putting money where my mouth and heart are.

[Adam]

13 hours ago, gotbeer said:

What is everyone's, or I should say @Homebrewer and @Adam's opinion on the maiden.  Just my thoughts.  But you know a big number is going to come up in the exotics.  Looking at the Arkansas derby, Sonnetteer was absolutely flying in the stretch.  With another furlong, he could have been a lot better than 4th.  Just IMO but with the derby, that style so fits the race.  Let the horses beat each other up in the front end.  Then some horse comes out of the blue in the stretch to nab some money.  It just seems to happen every year.  And probably at 50+ to 1 odds, him showing up would be making it rain.

Or do you guys think he has no shot?

I've warmed to him. He keeps getting better and better and the distance is only going to help. If he can trip out he can get a Suddenbreakingnews type run. SBN lost 3rd in a 3-horse photo last year. 

[Tank]

10 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

With just a decent post and a fair trip....McCraken wins this one. I have followed every race this entire year, and have been a fairly serious racing fan since the mid 80's. I have followed this 3YO class more closely than I have followed any in my years of being a race fan.

Can I be wrong? Can shit happen? Can the horse fall on his face out of the gate and finish last?

I have never felt as strongly about a KD starter. I will be betting this horse seriously in many ways, and I have never been as confident doing so in the KD ever.

ever

Take it for what it is, It's just my opinion based on 30 years of watching horses.

I'll be putting serious money behind my opinion. 

amigo, my attempt at humor seems to have not gone over very well. my apologies.

all i know about horse racing can be summed up in this sentiment: i know more about underwater basket-weaving than i do about horse racing.

you have studied thoroughly and have probably forgotten more about horse racing than i will ever learn, so please don't take my advice seriously. it's not intended that way. 

i hope you win a ton on saturday.

[Homebrewer]

33 minutes ago, Tank said:

amigo, my attempt at humor seems to have not gone over very well. my apologies.

all i know about horse racing can be summed up in this sentiment: i know more about underwater basket-weaving than i do about horse racing.

you have studied thoroughly and have probably forgotten more about horse racing than i will ever learn, so please don't take my advice seriously. it's not intended that way. 

i hope you win a ton on saturday.

No....yer cool, it's my bad...I know I shouldn't post after my 3rd (20 oz) IPA.

[Homebrewer]

14 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Derby Notes, May 1: Always Dreaming Learns Valuable Lessons During Monday Training Hours

Still need a defection to get Royal Mo in there. Sounds like most of the horses are doing fine, though. The only exception seems to be Girvin with the quarter crack.

Love this picture of  Always Dreaming..

[gotbeer]

Chances are high that it will be an off track for the derby.

[Adam]

Helps my horse

[Homebrewer]

56 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Chances are high that it will be an off track for the derby.

 

5 minutes ago, Adam said:

Helps my horse

Damn. 20 horses can throw a lot of mud....never know how a horse will react to getting pounded with slop, and it makes a jocks job a lot harder. I guess it would favor a horse like McCraken who is used to swinging out and around the pack, still, this race is open enough without throwing wet and sloppy into the mix.

[Tank]

1 hour ago, gotbeer said:

Chances are high that it will be an off track for the derby.

irish war cry loves the mud. 

[gotbeer]

Derby Notes, May 2: Thunder Snow, Irish War Cry And Gormley Make First Appearances

[Adam]

14 hours ago, Tank said:

irish war cry loves the mud. 

His dad sure did. Not sure about his mudda 

[gotbeer]

 

Kentucky Derby Starting Gate

#	Horse	Odds
1	Lookin At Lee	20-1	Bet Now
2	Thunder Snow (IRE)	20-1	Bet Now
3	Fast and Accurate	50-1	Bet Now
4	Untrapped	30-1	Bet Now
5	Always Dreaming	5-1	Bet Now
6	State of Honor	30-1	Bet Now
7	Girvin	15-1	Bet Now
8	Hence	15-1	Bet Now
9	Irap	20-1	Bet Now
10	Gunnevera	15-1	Bet Now
11	Battle of Midway	30-1	Bet Now
12	Sonneteer	50-1	Bet Now
13	J Boys Echo	20-1	Bet Now
14	Classic Empire	4-1	Bet Now
15	McCraken	5-1	Bet Now
16	Tapwrit	20-1	Bet Now
17	Irish War Cry	6-1	Bet Now
18	Gormley	15-1	Bet Now
19	Practical Joke	20-1	Bet Now
20	Patch	30-1	Bet Now

 

[gotbeer]

Just looking at the gate looks.  Always Dreaming got a brutal draw.  He's surrounded by speed.  And the real speed is to the outside of him.  Thunder Snow is also a toss.  Classic Empire might get a dream trip.  Gate 14.  Speed at 11, 9 and 8.  Slow breakers at 12 and 13. 

[Adam]

Patch, Gormley, Always Dreaming and Thunder Snow kinda got screwed. Everyone else is totally fine

[gotbeer]

So did how I think the race will unfold.  Was surprised at the results.

Top

• 8 Hence
• 14 Classic Empire

Second Group

• 10 Gunneverra
• 12 Sonnetteer
• 5 Always Dreaming
• 1 Looking at Lee

Third Group

• 11 Battle of Midway
• 7 Girvin
• 19 Practical Joke

Fourth Group

• 17 Irish War Cry
• 18 Gormley

My Tri might be 8, 14 with 8, 14, 10, 12, 5 with 8, 14, 10, 12, 5, 1, 11, 7  $48  Dropping Looking at Lee and Practical Joke a spot because of their post positions.

 

[Adam]

Barring bad news, this will be my key Trifecta on the Derby. 

15 / 1,2,10,12,14 / 1,2,8,9,10,12,14,16,19

[Homebrewer]

2-10-14-15 tri box

got a feeling Gunnavera will run on late

[gotbeer]

the more I think about it.  I think I'll just stick with Classic Empire as a single.

Exacta $10 $8

• 14 with 10, 12, 5, 1, 8 $5 14 with 10, 12, 5, 8
• 10, 12, 5, 1, 8 with 14 $5 10, 12, 5, 8 with 14

Trifecta $40 $48

• 14 with 10, 12, 5, 1, 8 $20 14 with 10, 12, 5, 8 with 10, 12, 5, 8, 1, 11, 7 $24
• 10, 12, 5, 1, 8 with 14 with 10, 12, 5, 1, 8 $20 10, 12, 5, 8 with 14 with 10, 12, 5, 8, 1, 11, 7 $24

That'll give me coverage and a lesser ticket to play a Classic/McCraken combo

Exacta $12 $10

• 14/15 box $2
• 15 with 10, 12, 5, 1, 8 $5 15 with 10, 12, 5, 8 $4
• 10, 12, 5, 1, 8 with 15 $5 10, 12, 5, 8 with 15 $4

Trifecta $30 $36

• 14/15 with 14/15 with 10, 12, 5, 1, 8 $10 14/15 with 14/15 with 10, 12, 5, 8, 1, 11, 7 $14
• 14/15 with 10, 12, 5, 1, 8 with 14/15 $10 14/15 with 10, 12, 5, 8, 1, 11, 7 with 14/15 $14
• 10, 12, 5, 8 with 14/15 with 14/15 $ 8
• 10, 12, 5, 1, 8 with 14/15 with 14/15 $10

Edited May 4, 2017 by gotbeer

[Homebrewer]

Last year the 1 2 3 4 betting choices finished 1 2 3 4 exactly

[gotbeer]

Hopping To It: Kangaroo Causes Chaos Midway Through Aussie Race