Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

Derby Notes, April 29: Workouts, Arrivals And Departures

[Homebrewer]

2 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Derby Notes, April 29: Workouts, Arrivals And Departures

Now, THAT is a comprehensive and thorough report..thanks for posting.You almost never find all of that information in one place, it's usually spread out in 20 different articles in 10 different places. 

I hope Sherriff's other horse, Royal Mo gets in too. Would be great to get Stevens a mount, and I would be including him underneath after what I saw at Santa Anita...and with GS aboard. 

I'm still of the opinion that McCraken gets some speed to run at and a nice trip using his own tactical speed and versatility, and swings mid track at the 8th pole to run them all down in the lane. Classic Empire is going to be the favorite and they will be gunning to box him and slow him up in as much as possible, and that might help Craken to sneak away.

Now it's all down to finalizing the field and holding the PP draw (8 am Wednesday)

[Tank]

[gotbeer]

5 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

Now, THAT is a comprehensive and thorough report..thanks for posting.You almost never find all of that information in one place, it's usually spread out in 20 different articles in 10 different places. 

I hope Sherriff's other horse, Royal Mo gets in too. Would be great to get Stevens a mount, and I would be including him underneath after what I saw at Santa Anita...and with GS aboard. 

I'm still of the opinion that McCraken gets some speed to run at and a nice trip using his own tactical speed and versatility, and swings mid track at the 8th pole to run them all down in the lane. Classic Empire is going to be the favorite and they will be gunning to box him and slow him up in as much as possible, and that might help Craken to sneak away.

Now it's all down to finalizing the field and holding the PP draw (8 am Wednesday)

Paulick Report is awesome.  He has a lot of good on his site.

[gotbeer]

 

‘Happy’ McCraken, ‘Beautiful’ Irish War Cry Post Final Breezes For Kentucky Derby

 

 

[gotbeer]

Final Jockey Assignments Confirmed In 2017 Run For The Roses

Quote

• Always Dreaming (John Velazquez)
• Battle of Midway (Flavien Prat)
• Classic Empire (Julien Leparoux)
• Fast and Accurate (Channing Hill)
• Girvin (Mike Smith)
• Gormley (Victor Espinoza)
• Gunnevera (Javier Castellano)
• Hence (Florent Geroux)
• Irap (Mario Gutierrez)
• Irish War Cry (Rajiv Maragh)
• J Boys Echo (Luis Saez)
• Lookin At Lee (Corey Lanerie)
• McCraken (Brian Hernandez Jr.)
• Patch (Tyler Gaffalione)
• Practical Joke (Joel Rosario)
• Sonneteer (Kent Desormeaux)
• State of Honor (Jose Lezcano)
• Tapwrit (Jose Ortiz)
• Thunder Snow (Ire) (Christophe Soumillon)
• Untrapped (Ricardo Santana Jr.).

 

[gotbeer]

Derby Notes, April 30: Battle Of Midway, Sonneteer, Irap Get First Tours Of Churchill

 

[gotbeer]

And BTW.  I do not like that Thunder Snow came week of the race.  And has to spend 2 days in quaranteen.  So that means he might not see the track till Tuesday for the first time.  For me, that's a lot to ask of a horse.

[Homebrewer]

58 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

And BTW.  I do not like that Thunder Snow came week of the race.  And has to spend 2 days in quaranteen.  So that means he might not see the track till Tuesday for the first time.  For me, that's a lot to ask of a horse.

He's a frequent flier all of his young life..All around Europe and then to the Middle East, and  now the US. That big day at Meydan is a huge spectacle, so the crowds and all the hoopla will be nothing new. I'll be interested to hear what he looks like during his work and schooling, and how he's eating...but if he's looking "right" I think this Euro is a real threat, and at a nice price. If there are no contrary reports he'll be part of my 4 horse trifecta box. 

[Adam]

I'm on a strong lean toward McCracken for my top pick.

[Homebrewer]

3 hours ago, Adam said:

I'm on a strong lean toward McCracken for my top pick.

All he needs now is a decent post position. Ideal would be 4 thru 10. I've already been adding it into my bedtime prayers..PP8 and 10-1

 

[gotbeer]

Ok, so here is a question regarding KD post positions.  Say on Wednesday the 20 horses are drawn.  Then say on Thursday morning, one of the horses withdraws.  Of course the alternate gets in the field.  But where does he go?  Does he get the same spot that that horse was drawn out at?  Does he get one of the ends?  Say the horse that withdraws has spot 8 or one of the prime spots.  Is it really fair that an alternate gets that prime spot?  I'm just curious on how that works.

[gotbeer]

NYRA Bets Presents Derby Countdown: Pre-Race Inspections, Fractionally Speaking

First part of the article is all about drugs, so not of real interest.

Second part though.  Gives some race stats, and puts them in perspective of the Derby.  And if true, is not a good sign for McCracken.  But, considering McCracken didn't switch leads on his last run, maybe there is some hope he gets overlooked?

Edited May 1, 2017 by gotbeer

[Adam]

22 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Ok, so here is a question regarding KD post positions.  Say on Wednesday the 20 horses are drawn.  Then say on Thursday morning, one of the horses withdraws.  Of course the alternate gets in the field.  But where does he go?  Does he get the same spot that that horse was drawn out at?  Does he get one of the ends?  Say the horse that withdraws has spot 8 or one of the prime spots.  Is it really fair that an alternate gets that prime spot?  I'm just curious on how that works.

Nope he's #21 and gets the 20 stall. All others move in 1

[gotbeer]

Just now, Adam said:

Nope he's #21 and gets the 20 stall. All others move in 1

Good.  Then it won't affect my weird incorrect handicapping at all then.  lol

[Adam]

I really hope one of Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry and Classic Empire draws the rail. 

[gotbeer]

1 minute ago, Adam said:

I really hope one of Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry and Classic Empire draws the rail. 

Can't we hope for Always Dreaming to get the rail and Irish War Cry to get the 20 spot?  I have money on Classic Empire, so he needs a mid position.

[Adam]

For the first time ummm ever both of my futures are alive. 

Gormley / McCracken exacta paying $313

Lookin At Lee / Classic Empire exacta paying $238

I'd probably get better on Saturday but at least I'm alive and don't have to play those combos

[gotbeer]

31 minutes ago, Adam said:

For the first time ummm ever both of my futures are alive. 

Gormley / McCracken exacta paying $313

Lookin At Lee / Classic Empire exacta paying $238

I'd probably get better on Saturday but at least I'm alive and don't have to play those combos

 

My only future bets that are alive $80 total.

• $5 Practical Joke 60/1
• $5 Gormley 19/1
• $5 Practical Joke 34/1
• $5 Classic Empire 8/1
• $5 McCraken 40/1

To defend the Classic Empire bet though, I'm halvsies with a friend.  He said something to the tune of if Classic wins, he'd win over a G.  I think he got in when Classic was 60/1. 

[Adam]

So you're really on team Practical Joke

[gotbeer]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

So you're really on team Practical Joke

I like Practical Joke to win.  I at least think he has a shot.  But if Classic, McCraken, or Practical wins.  I'll be good with.  If they don't win, then the stewards were idiots and my horses were fouled.

[Adam]

Why do you think Practical Joke can win? He's hung in every two turn race and couldn't pass a maiden on the wrong lead in the Blue Grass?

[gotbeer]

59 minutes ago, Adam said:

Why do you think Practical Joke can win? He's hung in every two turn race and couldn't pass a maiden on the wrong lead in the Blue Grass?

Just one of those feelings.  He's hung in there the last two races showing a no quit attitude.  Last race showed he could go the extra furlong.  Rosario rode him on his G1 win, BC 3rd, and the last race.  He just seems like one of those horses that will pick up the pieces if they all fall apart.  A lot has to go his way.  But I think he will have the lead in the stretch.  Although I do think a closer will gun him down.  It just seems like that kind of race for me. 

[Adam]

I'm using him in 2nd and 3rd in my tris. I don't think he can win but I think he's one of the ones for place. 

[Homebrewer]

5 hours ago, Adam said:

For the first time ummm ever both of my futures are alive. 

Gormley / McCracken exacta paying $313

Lookin At Lee / Classic Empire exacta paying $238

I'd probably get better on Saturday but at least I'm alive and don't have to play those combos

Can't see lookin at lee in the money, but Gormley could absolutely be right there with a decent post.

If I had to bet today my top 4 would be

McCraken

Gormely

Classic Empire

and Thunder Snow