Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

If I was Biff, I would have bet on this race.  Damn Japanese degenerates.

Race 3

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
11	Aromaticus (JPN)	Takakura R	$421.70	$127.40	$86.50
5	Cor Anglais (JPN)	Iwata Y	-	$12.20	$5.10
16	Lily Montreux (JPN)	Matsuyama K	-	-	$18.50
1	Miracle Ship (JPN)	Mori Y	-	-	-

 

Winning Trainer: Sachio Yukubo – Owner: Kenji Yamamoto

$1 Trifecta Box Paid $1,978.30

$2 Exacta (11-5) Paid $4,466.30

$2 Trifecta (11-5-ALL) Paid $3,956.60

$0.20 Superfecta (11-5-ALL-ALL) Paid $709.39

$2 Pick-3 (16/15/ALL) Paid $23.60 (3OF3)

$2 Pick-3 (16/ALL/11) Paid $23.60 (3OF3)

$2 Pick-3 (ALL/15/11) Paid $23.60 (3OF3)

[Homebrewer]

A $400 winner and the tri only paid $1900?

Robbery.

[gotbeer]

Notice how nobody hit the pick 3.  That's just scary how big that would have been.

[gotbeer]

11 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

A $400 winner and the tri only paid $1900?

Robbery.

Actually, more of an exacta.  Notice how the 3rd leg is an all.  Heck, same with the super.  Only the first two legs, last two are alls. 

[Adam]

Holy slow MF'n preps 

[Homebrewer]

28 minutes ago, Adam said:

Holy slow MF'n preps 

I wonder how much that has to do with the weather this past week all around the country...it's been wet everywhere and the ground looked heavy, especially at Keenland. 

[gotbeer]

1 hour ago, Homebrewer said:

I wonder how much that has to do with the weather this past week all around the country...it's been wet everywhere and the ground looked heavy, especially at Keenland. 

Yeah, it did look like they were treading water at Keenland.  Isn't that the graveyard of champions? 

Does Practical Joke have a chance?  Fountain of Youth and Bluegrass, he was really game for second.  Or is he a second place horse? 

[Homebrewer]

10 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Yeah, it did look like they were treading water at Keenland.  Isn't that the graveyard of champions? 

Does Practical Joke have a chance?  Fountain of Youth and Bluegrass, he was really game for second.  Or is he a second place horse? 

There and Saratoga..

I think he's got a chance, yeah. All these horses are still maturing and you can never tell when one will jump up and turn the tables.

[gotbeer]

2 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

There and Saratoga..

I think he's got a chance, yeah. All these horses are still maturing and you can never tell when one will jump up and turn the tables.

I guess it will really come down to who likes the Churchill surface.  I guess that is one thing that is really intriguing about Churchill.  Almost none of these 3 year olds have run there.  So it's like a mystery bag with a 20 horse field.  Especially one with no absolute clear standout.

[Homebrewer]

McCraken has run there 3 times and has never lost.

[Adam]

Here's my Derby Top 5 as of today.

5. Irish War Cry - I don't know what to think of this horse. I don't buy the speed figs from NYRA. 101 seems incredibly generous considering what the race looked like visually. Also, his two impressive wins he had perfect trips. Those are a lot harder to come by in the Derby. 

4. Gunnevera - Hasn't done anything wrong. Really hope JJ stays aboard, but I doubt it. He'll give a great effort and will be closing in the lane.

3. Classic Empire - He could be elevated from here or dropped completely depending on how he runs on Saturday. 

2. Always Dreaming - Visually the best prep to date. Pretty fast too from a final time standpoint. 

1. McKracken - Needed his last race big time. I thought he had a funky trip on a funky track and should get a lot out of it. Lots of success at Churchill. Should be a fair price. 

 

[Homebrewer]

I'm wondering if Royal Mo might be a BTL horse...ran pretty well from the 13 hole in the SAD, big rangey horse..

If he gets in, and Stevens stays aboard...I mean you never know. "Remember the Giacomo" (finished 4th in the SAD) This isn't a real strong 3YO contingent, might be a year for an overlooked horse at a big price.  

 Gary had a lot of praise for the horse.

 

 

“It was an excellent race for him,” Shirreffs said of Royal Mo. “He was wide from a bad post position. I thought he ran super.”

Jockey Gary Stevens, who piloted Royal Mo from the far outside post 13 in the Santa Anita Derby, was full of praise for his mount as well.

“It was a tremendous effort,” Stevens said. “I usually don’t pay much attention to Trakus, but I think it said 64 feet (wide) or something, and we were going in the gate and I’m thinking, ‘My God, I’m a long ways out here.’ I was right on the crest of the crown on the track, and I’m thinking if there were 14 horses they’d be standing lopsided.

“I was just hoping I got away good and I did. If we’d have drawn down inside, I still would have had to send him, but not like I did to clear. I got over to the three path by the time we hit the (first) turn, and it takes a hell of an athlete to be able to do that.

“He’s got an unbelievable high cruising speed. We didn’t come home that fast (the last eighth in :13.61) but nobody else did, either.”

Stevens is no stranger to the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle – scoring in 1988 on the filly Winning Colors, in 1994 with Tabasco Cat and 1997 aboard Silver Charm – and compared Royal Mo with one of his past Derby winners.

“Royal Mo reminded me a lot of Silver Charm. He’s got fight. He didn’t act like he was going to run by (Jerry) Hollendorfer’s horse (Battle of Midway). He seemed like he was pretty content. When Victor (Espinoza on Gormley) went by me, he knocked the whip out of my hand and I thought, ‘God, I need this thing,’ but my horse re-engaged with Gormley and I thought I was going to run second.

“Corey (Nakatani on Battle of Midway) came out and Victor came in ever so slightly, so I got crowded pretty good the last 50 yards and it might have cost me second, and it would have been great if I finished second, because we’d automatically be in (the Kentucky Derby) now with those points (40).

“I really like what I felt, a lot like I did with Silver Charm. I lost a battle yesterday but I might have won the war, because he put in a hell of an effort, got a lot of fitness, and a lot of schooling out of it.”

[Tank]

I like the name of Irish War Cry. You should bet on him to win.

[Adam]

12 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

I'm wondering if Royal Mo might be a BTL horse...ran pretty well from the 13 hole in the SAD, big rangey horse..

If he gets in, and Stevens stays aboard...I mean you never know. "Remember the Giacomo" (finished 4th in the SAD) This isn't a real strong 3YO contingent, might be a year for an overlooked horse at a big price.  

 Gary had a lot of praise for the horse.

 

 

“It was an excellent race for him,” Shirreffs said of Royal Mo. “He was wide from a bad post position. I thought he ran super.”

Jockey Gary Stevens, who piloted Royal Mo from the far outside post 13 in the Santa Anita Derby, was full of praise for his mount as well.

“It was a tremendous effort,” Stevens said. “I usually don’t pay much attention to Trakus, but I think it said 64 feet (wide) or something, and we were going in the gate and I’m thinking, ‘My God, I’m a long ways out here.’ I was right on the crest of the crown on the track, and I’m thinking if there were 14 horses they’d be standing lopsided.

“I was just hoping I got away good and I did. If we’d have drawn down inside, I still would have had to send him, but not like I did to clear. I got over to the three path by the time we hit the (first) turn, and it takes a hell of an athlete to be able to do that.

“He’s got an unbelievable high cruising speed. We didn’t come home that fast (the last eighth in :13.61) but nobody else did, either.”

Stevens is no stranger to the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle – scoring in 1988 on the filly Winning Colors, in 1994 with Tabasco Cat and 1997 aboard Silver Charm – and compared Royal Mo with one of his past Derby winners.

“Royal Mo reminded me a lot of Silver Charm. He’s got fight. He didn’t act like he was going to run by (Jerry) Hollendorfer’s horse (Battle of Midway). He seemed like he was pretty content. When Victor (Espinoza on Gormley) went by me, he knocked the whip out of my hand and I thought, ‘God, I need this thing,’ but my horse re-engaged with Gormley and I thought I was going to run second.

“Corey (Nakatani on Battle of Midway) came out and Victor came in ever so slightly, so I got crowded pretty good the last 50 yards and it might have cost me second, and it would have been great if I finished second, because we’d automatically be in (the Kentucky Derby) now with those points (40).

“I really like what I felt, a lot like I did with Silver Charm. I lost a battle yesterday but I might have won the war, because he put in a hell of an effort, got a lot of fitness, and a lot of schooling out of it.”

He got clobbered by shit in Arkansas though. Man this is a strange year. lol

 

BTW - I forgot Girvin in my top 5. He's gotta be in there. From a final time standpoint his race wasn't as slow as the others and he's not made any mistakes. Plus he has Mike Smith for the Derby.

[Homebrewer]

8 minutes ago, Adam said:

Man this is a strange year. lol

 

That it is...that it is. We're running out of time, too. In order to really cash in on the derby,  with so many runners involved, I really need to make a decision on one winner, two at the most.. and build trifectas around them. There are going to be many "underneath" horses to weed through.

[gotbeer]

1 hour ago, Homebrewer said:

That it is...that it is. We're running out of time, too. In order to really cash in on the derby,  with so many runners involved, I really need to make a decision on one winner, two at the most.. and build trifectas around them. There are going to be many "underneath" horses to weed through.

Right now, I'm leaning towards one of my future bet horse that I'm going to build tickets with will be Practical Joke.  He's been grinding out top 3's.  And looked good in the Bluegrass.  He might be overlooked since he hasn't been winning, which means good odds.  Might do the $36 bet, with 4 other horses, and Practical Joke singled in the 1, 2, 3 position. 

[Homebrewer]

1 minute ago, gotbeer said:

Right now, I'm leaning towards one of my future bet horse that I'm going to build tickets with will be Practical Joke.  He's been grinding out top 3's.  And looked good in the Bluegrass.  He might be overlooked since he hasn't been winning, which means good odds.  Might do the $36 bet, with 4 other horses, and Practical Joke singled in the 1, 2, 3 position. 

At this point it would be hard to criticize or disagree with anyone's choice of a winner. Looks like even the "favorites" could be 6-1 or better, so the tote is going to be no help, and a very minor factor. 

[Adam]

I think I'll have 3 key horses pending what happens this Sat. Girvin, McKracken and Always Dreaming. Practical Joke seems like a 7F horse to me. 

[gotbeer]

I also always ignore my own advice.  But this year, after watching all of the horses in the preps.  I really do not think any horse can overcome 1-3 or 15+ in the post position.  They might show up for the exotics.  But on top, I'm almost inclined to already right those horses off.

[Adam]

Interesting. Might be right! I really hope I have a strong opinion in the Woodford because I'll be using at least 8 horses in the derby. 

[gotbeer]

Race 11 Arkansas Derby (Grade I) POST Time - 6:18 PM

P#	PP	Horse	Virtual Stable	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1	Rockin Rudy (IA)		3/C	L	M Gutierrez	118	D F O'Neill	12/1
2	2	Classic Empire (KY)		3/C	L	J R Leparoux	122	M E Casse	8/5
3	3	Silver Dust (KY)		3/C	L	C J Lanerie	118	R L Morse	20/1
4	4	Petrov (KY)		3/C	L	R Santana, Jr.	118	R Moquett	12/1
5	5	Grandpa's Dream (KY)		3/C	L	A L Canchari	118	C A Hartman	30/1
6	6	Lookin At Lee (KY)		3/C	L	L Contreras	122	S M Asmussen	15/1
7	7	Sonneteer (KY)		3/C	L	K J Desormeaux	118	J K Desormeaux	15/1
8	8	Rowdy the Warrior (OK)		3/C	L	L S Quinonez	118	D K Von Hemel	30/1
9	9	Untrapped (KY)		3/C	L	M E Smith	118	S M Asmussen	6/1
10	10	One Dreamy Dude (FL)		3/C	L	G Franco	118	J C Van Berg	50/1
11	11	Conquest Mo Money (NY)		3/C	L	J Carreno	122	M L Hernandez	15/1
12	12	Malagacy (KY)		3/C	L	J Castellano	122	T A Pletcher	2/1

 

Larger field than I thought it would be.

[Adam]

Classic Empire easily, OR complete and utter chaos!

[gotbeer]

10 minutes ago, Adam said:

Classic Empire easily, OR complete and utter chaos!

Ponder this.  If Classic Empire finishes outside of 4th, he will not qualify for the Derby.  Utter chaos will rule, hopefully to the sound of our bank accounts growing.

[Adam]

Yeah but he's got 32 points I think. He'll get in with scratches and what not, but why would they want to run him. Anything less than a very well run 2nd and you gotta put this dude on the shelf. 

[gotbeer]

looking at the points.

• 1 Rockin Rudy NR 0 points
• 2 Classic Empire 23 32 points
• 3 Silver Dust 71 1 point
• 4 Petrov 34 13 points
• 5 Grandpa's Dream NR 0 points
• 6 Looking at Lee 36 12 points
• 7 Sonneteer 27 20 points
• 8 Rowdy the Warrior 61 2 points
• 9 Untrapped 22 34 points
• 10 One Dreamy Dude NR 0 points
• 11 Conquest Mo Money 27 20 points
• 12 Malagacy 13 50 points

Malagacy is already in.  Untrapped and Classic can get in with a 4th place showing.  But that's a lot of fringe that will be fighting for the top 2-3 spots.  Right now, 40 points is at 21 positions.  We already know there is 2 definite outs with injury, maybe 3 (Epicaris) that won't run right now.  This is a big weekend for these horses.  Right now, only one of them is guaranteed a spot.  And if a sub 10 pointer comes in first and second.  It'll throw everything out of wack.  Heck, there is enough 10+ pointers that could throw things out of wack.