Thoroughbred Racing

[Homebrewer]

4 hours ago, Adam said:

I think he's just a primadonna 

dehydration 

[gotbeer]

1 hour ago, Homebrewer said:

dehydration 

Well, they aren't giving him the de-oxidized water like he requested. 

[Homebrewer]

1 hour ago, gotbeer said:

Well, they aren't giving him the de-oxidized water like he requested. 

Great horses drink something even better.

Take Zenyatta  for instance..

 

[Homebrewer]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

My God...even her head was magnificent..She is birthin' babies and doin well in Kentucky.

[gotbeer]

Z and her bottle of Guiness every night.  Yeah, she was one of a kind.  Glad I was able to see her race live multiple times.

 

[gotbeer]

UAE Derby Features Japan's Kentucky Derby Qualifier

Might want to keep an eye out for Epicharis this weekend.  If he wins, that will be two very big fields, against some good international horses that he will have bested. 

[Adam]

He's my bet for the derby at the moment.

[gotbeer]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

He's my bet for the derby at the moment.

You can get 75-1 on him at Wynn right now.  Oddly, only 25-1 at William Hill.

[Adam]

That's pretty good. It looks 50/50 he even comes tho 

[gotbeer]

FYI.  Dubai starts at 4:45 AM Saturday morning.  The World Cup is at 11:45 AM.  Not sure when the 3 YO race is in between.

[Homebrewer]

1(1)

APOLLO KENTUCKY (USA) 5 yrs. Db/br H 19 (8-3-2)

Owner:Apollo Thoroughbred Club

Trainer:K Yamauchi

Jockey:Christophe Lemaire

Weight57.0 Kgs

Official Rating117

 

2(2)

LONG RIVER (USA) 7 yrs. Ch H 25 (5-4-2)

Owner:Sh Hamdan bin Mohd Al Maktoum

Trainer:S bin Ghadayer

Jockey:Mickael Barzalona

Weight57.0 Kgs

Official Rating115

 

3(3)

GOLD DREAM (JPN) 4 yrs. Bay C 9 (5-2-1)

Owner:Katsumi Yoshida

Trainer:O Hirata

Jockey:Joao Moreira

Weight57.0 Kgs

Official Rating116

 

4(4)

LANI (USA) 4 yrs. Gr/Ro C 13 (3-1-2)

Owner:Ms Yoko Maeda

Trainer:M Matsunaga

Jockey:Ryan Moore

Weight57.0 Kgs

Official Rating112

 

5(5)

GUN RUNNER (USA) 4 yrs. Ch C 13 (7-2-2)

Owner:Winchell Thoroughbreds & Three Chimneys Farm

Trainer:S Asmussen

Jockey:Florent Geroux

Weight57.0 Kgs

Official Rating118

 

6(6)

MOVE UP (GB) 4 yrs. Bay C 9 (5-0-2)

Owner:Godolphin

Trainer:S bin Suroor

Jockey:Adrie De Vries

Weight57.0 Kgs

Official Rating115

 

7(7)

AWARDEE (USA) 7 yrs. Bay H 34 (10-6-6)

Owner:Koji Maeda

Trainer:M Matsunaga

Jockey:Yutaka Take

Weight57.0 Kgs

Official Rating118

 

8(8)

FURIA CRUZADA (CHI) 5 yrs. Bay M 23 (7-4-5)

Owner:Avaz Ismoilov

Trainer:E Charpy

Jockey:Antonio Fresu

Weight55.0 Kgs

Official Rating108

 

9(9)

ARROGATE (USA) 4 yrs. Gr/Ro C 7 (6-0-1)

Owner:Juddmonte Farms, Inc

Trainer:B Baffert

Jockey:Mike Smith

Weight57.0 Kgs

Official Rating134

 

10(10)

KEEN ICE (USA) 5 yrs. Bay H 20 (2-2-5)

Owner:Donegal Racing & Calumet Farm

Trainer:T Pletcher

Jockey:Javier Castellano

Weight57.0 Kgs

Official Rating115

 

11(11)

NEOLITHIC (USA) 4 yrs. Db/br C 8 (2-3-1)

Owner:Qatar Racing & Starlight Racing

Trainer:T Pletcher

Jockey:John Velazquez

Weight57.0 Kgs

Official Rating114

 

12(12)

HOPPERTUNITY (USA) 6 yrs. Bay H 25 (7-6-4)

Owner:Michael Pegram, Karl Watson & Paul Weitman

Trainer:B Baffert

Jockey:Flavien Prat

Weight57.0 Kgs

Official Rating117

 

13(13)

SPECIAL FIGHTER (IRE) 6 yrs. Ch H 20 (6-3-0)

Owner:Sh Mansoor bin Mohd Al Maktoum

Trainer:M Ritchie

Jockey:Fernando Jara

Weight57.0 Kgs

Official Rating115

 

14(14)

MUBTAAHIJ (IRE) 5 yrs. Bay H 16 (4-4-1)

Owner:Sh Mohd bin Khalifa Al Maktoum

Trainer:M de Kock

Jockey:Christophe Soumillon

Weight57.0 Kgs

Official Rating117

 

 

 

 

 

[Adam]

Arrogate - Gun Runner - Hoppy Cold Tri

[gotbeer]

2 minutes ago, Adam said:

Arrogate - Gun Runner - Hoppy Cold Tri

You forget, that Dubai is where American horses go to die.  While I think Arrogate will do well, and probably win.  Remember that the American horses, since they don't race there, are in the visitors stalls, about a mile away from the track.  The Shieks horses have to be considered.  Also, #5 Move Up the GB horse, is trained by the winningist trainer in world cup who is also owned by the winningist owner in world cup. 

All that being said.  If anyone finds a form, post or email por favor.

[Adam]

1 minute ago, gotbeer said:

You forget, that Dubai is where American horses go to die.  While I think Arrogate will do well, and probably win.  Remember that the American horses, since they don't race there, are in the visitors stalls, about a mile away from the track.  The Shieks horses have to be considered.  Also, #5 Move Up the GB horse, is trained by the winningist trainer in world cup who is also owned by the winningist owner in world cup. 

All that being said.  If anyone finds a form, post or email por favor.

I have zero interest in Dubai. 

Hoppy finished third last year. I suppose there's a chance Gun Runner hates it.

$10 Arrogate-GunRunner-Hoppy

$1 Arrogate-ALL-Hoppy

[gotbeer]

Just pulled from some random betting site.  Probably not the current odds. 

Dubai World Cup Odds

Paddy Power £30 Free Be

 

Arrogate

1/3

Mubtaahij	8
Gun Runner	8
Hoppertunity	14
Neolithic	20
Special Fighter	33
Keen Ice	33
Gold Dream	33
Awardee	33
Apollo Kentucky	33
Long River	50
Move Up	66
Furia Cruzada	66
Lani	100

[Adam]

If speed is good, Neolithic and gun runner can run 1-2 around the track and finish 2-3

[Adam]

I guarantee Lani won't finish last.

5th or 6th

[gotbeer]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

I guarantee Lani won't finish last.

5th or 6th

Remember, Lani's road to the Kentucky Derby went through Dubai.  I could see that horse doing well.

[gotbeer]

Sent you guys the Brisnet PP for Dubai on Sat.

[Homebrewer]

1 hour ago, gotbeer said:

Remember, Lani's road to the Kentucky Derby went through Dubai.  I could see that horse doing well.

That horse will be somewhere on whatever ticket I come up with. Traveled everywhere in the world, twice or three times so that's no concern...just a gut feeling that it's way due to be a factor.

I'll probably play one of my 4 horse tri boxes...and I won't be leaving Lani out of it.

[Adam]

So Epicharis is 5-1 in UAE Derby.

He beat a horse by 3/4 length in their last race. That horse is 50-1

[gotbeer]

23 minutes ago, Adam said:

So Epicharis is 5-1 in UAE Derby.

He beat a horse by 3/4 length in their last race. That horse is 50-1

Yeah, looking at a replay of it.  It wasn't a dominate putting away.  Although looked like the horse was ridden out.  So the extra 3/16 might not be that big of a deal.

[gotbeer]

here is who I have for Dubai.  Just so you know who not to bet.  Not doing all of them, since I'm not waking up at no 4 am.

Race 4

• 10 Epicharis 4-0, So can't really go against him
• 11 He Runs Away moving down from G1 company.  Won 2 of the last 3 G1 races
• 14 nomorerichblondes.  Come on, one of the greatest horse racing names ever.  But won last out in Dubai in a G3. 
  • Bet Win 10, 11, Exacta 10/11,14 $6

Race 5

• 11 Limato Did not do well at SA last out.  But it was for a mile, when he was stretching out.  Throwing out the miles, he has finished first or second in, winning some grade 1's. 
• 6 Ertijaal Won 6 of the last 7.  With the one loss, a close second in G1 company.  Other than that, he has faced much lower class with a G3 being his highest.
• 1 Amazing Kids Always seems close.  His last 2 recent wins have been at 5 f.  6 seems a bit far for him. 
  • Bet Win 11, Exacta 11/6, Trifecta 11/6/1 $4

Race 6

• 1 Stallwalkin' Dude top 3 in last 8.  Might not be enough to win
• 5 Cool Cowboy Close second in last, and won 2 out.  Both at Meydan.  G3 company, so moving up in class, and might not be enough to win
• 6 Muarrab moving up in class.  Won in grade 1 company.  But last 4, was within a length in the last 3, and was outkicked and finished second in the other.  Probably not enough to win.
• 11 St Joe Bay  Won last 3, each win moving up in class from OC to G3 to G2.  his best races have been with Desourmoux as the pilot, and he did not make the trip for a $2 million race. 
• 14 Mind your Biscuits  Won a G1 at SA, and has been second or third in the last 4.  Except for the 5th out, finished in top 3. 
  • Bet wide open.  I think this is a pass race for me.  I just can't figure out who to bet.

Race 7

• 10 Debt Collector Won 8 of last 9 including 3 G1's. 
• 4 Decorated Knight Won last in a G1 at this distance at Meydan.  Won 4 of the last 5, losing one by a head.
  • Bet Win 10/4, Exacta 10/4 Box $6

Race 8

• 7 Postponed Lost by a neck last out.  Finished 5, quite a bit out in last, but it was the Arc.  Won 6 in a row before that, including a G1 and G2 at Meydan. 
• 2 Jack Hobbs finished top 3 in 8 of last 9, with 1 race a non finisher.  Just not sold on him in the top
• 3 Highland Reel 5 of 6 in top 3.  Won the BC Turf at SA.  What I don't like is the one time he ran at meydan, he finished a distant 4th.
• 6 Seventh Heaven Won 2 G1's in last 4, but the last 2 haven't been within par
  • Bet Win 7  $2.  Just too small of a field to risk much.

 

Race 9

• 9 Arrogate Just his race to lose
  • Exacta 9/5, 7, 13 $3, Tri 9/5, 7, 13/5, 7, 13, 14, 8 $12, super 9/5, 7, 13/5, 7, 13, 14, 8  $3.60 Just my guesses. 

Edited March 24, 2017 by gotbeer

[Homebrewer]

34 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Race 9

• 9 Arrogate Just his race to lose
  • Exacta 9/??, Tri 9/??/??, super 9/??/??/??  Just don't know yet.  Will look this race over on Friday before making a decision.

Agree..the challenge to capping and betting this race is figuring out who might step up and beat him..I don't see it happening but that horse will probably finish second...pick 2 other horses that have a chance, and its a 4 horse tri box.

Lani is my hunch horse. I think he'll get in the tri...no reason for it other than a feeling. Nothing on paper points that way.

[Adam]

I'm going to do a very quick handicap job of the Dubai card. I'll post my thoughts and any plays.

FYI - Sprial Stakes PPs 

http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=TP&country=USA&raceDate=20170325&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=10#past-performance-race/10