Thoroughbred Racing

[Homebrewer]

3 minutes ago, Adam said:

I'm not giving up on Gormley. He already has enough points. He'll be in the gate if they want him to run. But, he needs to sit off the pace some. He wore down a short American Anthem but he can't press the pace and win. I'm sure we'll see him in the SA Derby sit off the pace.

Even Irish War Cry can't be as bad as he looked this weekend.

[Adam]

Weird year.

 

OT / The BC is already basically sold out at Del Mar. The prices and fees are ridiculous this year. We got infield passes. $50

[Homebrewer]

43 minutes ago, Adam said:

Weird year.

 

OT / The BC is already basically sold out at Del Mar. The prices and fees are ridiculous this year. We got infield passes. $50

whoa

[gotbeer]

10 hours ago, Adam said:

I'm not giving up on Gormley. He already has enough points. He'll be in the gate if they want him to run. But, he needs to sit off the pace some. He wore down a short American Anthem but he can't press the pace and win. I'm sure we'll see him in the SA Derby sit off the pace.

I don't think 25 gets in this year.

Really only 17 spots open this year.  You got 1 spot to the Japanese horse.  2 for the Dubai horses that get 100 and 40 points.  I think it's going to be 30-35 points that gets in. 

[gotbeer]

2 hours ago, Adam said:

Weird year.

 

OT / The BC is already basically sold out at Del Mar. The prices and fees are ridiculous this year. We got infield passes. $50

Doesn't surprise me that it's almost sold out.  It's a much smaller grandstand/infield than Santa Anita.  Which is probably why they are charging more.  Last year, Santa Anita got a reported 72k.  They are capping attendance at 37k for Del Mar. 

[Adam]

1 hour ago, gotbeer said:

I don't think 25 gets in this year.

Really only 17 spots open this year.  You got 1 spot to the Japanese horse.  2 for the Dubai horses that get 100 and 40 points.  I think it's going to be 30-35 points that gets in. 

I'm including assumed defections and injuries. Already a 50 point horse is out.

[Adam]

I wouldn't be too bullish on American Anthem this weekend...

 

Finishers of the Sham....

Gormley - punked in the San Felipe
Term of Art - distanced in the San Felipe
Colonel Samsen - dissed in the Cal Derby, then massacred in the El Camino
Blabimir - pulled up in the San Vincinte
Bird is the Word - WON!!...on the turf...in a MSW

American Anthem???? I'll pass at what is sure to be 2-1 or worse. 

[gotbeer]

11 hours ago, Adam said:

I'm including assumed defections and injuries. Already a 50 point horse is out.

It'll depend on the amount.  Last year, 32 points got you in, with little getting knocked out.  The year before that, it was 40 points, but after the injuries, it ended up being 22. 

But the way this year has been so wide open with longshots winning the 50 point races, I can really see it on the higher end.  I mean, with one race to go,  McCraken only has 20 points.  If he throws a clunker in his next race.  He could be out. 

It'll be interesting to see how the 100 point races sorts itself out.  You would think the talent will spread itself out, and head to different tracks instead of just the Florida and CA tracks.

[Adam]

I can't imagine not using the All Button in the Derby on at least one ticket. 

[gotbeer]

The favorite is probably going to be 3 or 4-1 for the derby.  It's so wide open.  Heck if McCracken does get knocked out.  I could see 5 or 6 to 1 for the favorite.  Exacta might be an IRS signer.

[Adam]

FWIW I mildly like a few longish shots today at Santa Anita

 

#2 Lirica Heat in R3 (12-1)

#1 Upper Classmen R5 (12-1) 

#5 Anita Partner R7 (8-1)

[nando714]

My uncle would love this thread

[Homebrewer]

42 minutes ago, nando714 said:

My uncle would love this thread

All degenerates are welcome.

[Adam]

So the stewards just robbed me of a nice double. 

[Homebrewer]

26 minutes ago, Adam said:

So the stewards just robbed me of a nice double. 

I imagine somewhere, sometime, the stewards did something that actually helped me, but I'll be damned if I can remember it.

Probably on a "no change" decision or two...but I can't remember a horse being taken down ever helping me win. 

[gotbeer]

44 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

I imagine somewhere, sometime, the stewards did something that actually helped me, but I'll be damned if I can remember it.

Probably on a "no change" decision or two...but I can't remember a horse being taken down ever helping me win. 

yup.  I can remember horses taken down screwing me.  I can even remember horses fouling my horse, and well it was a Baffert, so no foul. 

I wonder if the California rules for stewards is posted somewhere.  Their rules are probably as vague as a MLB umpire 3 inches off the plate though.

[gotbeer]

TimeformUS Kentucky Derby prep analysis: Fast pace in Rebel could elevate longshot Silver Dust

[gotbeer]

Another week.  And wow.  Another new shooter, with the knowns throwing clunkers.  Jockey is now interesting, because Catellano has two shooters I believe in the derby. 

 

[gotbeer]

Wow, looking closer.  Gunnevera, who looks good.  Trained by Antonio Sano.  Malagacy, trained by Todd Pletcher.  Javier Castellano has one heck of a decision to make now.  Because can you really say no to Pletcher? 

[gotbeer]

Hindsight.  Doh.

TimeformUS Kentucky Derby prep analysis: Fast pace in Rebel could elevate longshot Silver Dust

Quote

#6, MALAGACY (4-1): It's tempting to draw parallels between this colt and the Southwest winner, One Liner. Like that stablemate, Malagacy is coming off two impressive wins sprinting and is making his first start around two turns in his stakes debut. While the hurdles are significant, Todd Pletcher actually has great numbers with this move. According to DRF Formulator, he is 6 for 16 (38 percent) with an ROI of $7.16 when stretching out 3-year-olds for the first time in graded stakes on dirt. Despite that strong statistic, I'm skeptical that lightning will strike twice for the Pletcher barn. Malagacy's pedigree is strongly geared toward sprinting on the dam's side, and he really hasn't beaten a foe of actual quality. Furthermore, given his speedy nature and the projected pace scenario, it's hard to see him working out the right trip. I'm against him at a short price.

 

[Homebrewer]

So much going on yesterday I didn't see the race till this morning. Not big on betting horses stretching out from sprints to routes in stakes races..I gotta see something first. Especially when a horse is stepping up against known commodities for big money. 

Not quite sure what to make of that race. Malagacy got the perfect trip, and a 112-1 maiden ran 2nd.

[Adam]

Man that was a slow race. Those horses are shit. 91 BSF. That second place horse couldn't beat garbage in CA.

At least Malagacy can claim it was his first going two turns. But, he's going to have to run a helluva lot faster to compete at the derby and his pedigree makes 10F questionable.

For a few years people have avoided the CA preps but you have to think that shipping in for the SA derby looks attractive right now.

[Adam]

http://www.drf.com/news/classic-empire-again-refuses-work

 

I really hope they get off the trail with this horse. He's unbettable because he won't run if he doesn't want to. If he wants to he can win. 

[gotbeer]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

http://www.drf.com/news/classic-empire-again-refuses-work

 

I really hope they get off the trail with this horse. He's unbettable because he won't run if he doesn't want to. If he wants to he can win. 

After having back problems.  They should take him off the trail.  If they race him with these issues, it would be irresponsible.  Hasn't reached that point yet, but they are getting close.

[Adam]

I think he's just a primadonna