Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

just prelim stuff.  Mainly eliminating horses.

• race 1 4 Classic Ruler, 6 St Reno.  throw out the last on classic ruler on the slop.  He's been interested his madiens.  6 st reno is always there, but just can't win at the higher levels.  too small of a field for money.
• race 2 maiden downhill.  Tough all around.  1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 10, 11 made the initial cut. 
• race 3 I'm really looking at 2 Above Board.  But 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 made the cut.
• race 4 maiden.  1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 made the cut.  3 is an interesting horse though.  It's one of the Shaw's that was moved from Baffert to Sherman.  At 12/1, might be worth a longshot play
• race 5 the big 3 year old race.  3, 4, 5, 6 made the cut.  might be leaning more to the 4/6 exacta
• race 6 4 caught my eye initially.  last 3 have been good runs.  finished a close 2nd at this level.  1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13 made the cut.
• race 7 maiden with a majority of no stats.  will have to look at the workout reports. 
• race 8 think all but the 7 have a shot.  Not sure at all on this race.
• race 9 to me, looks like it comes down to 4 dortmund and 5 ring weekend.  I think I'm leaning to ring weekend.
• race 10 In with a shot.  1, 3, 4, 5, 8.  Songbird should have run in this race.  1, 5, 8 lean towards the track bias.  I think the 1 may try and wire it.  And due to the bias, I don't know if the 3 will have enough.  So I think that really opens it up for the 4 or 5. 
• race 11 made the cut 1, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 13  This is a typical last race where a bomber might come in.

[Adam]

Saturday - Tampa & Santa Anita - Top Picks

TAMPA

Race 8 - The Challenger

#2 Stanford is clearly going to take a lot of money and could be odds on. I do think he's the most likely winner in this field, but he's not going to be my pick as I think there are some pace dynamics in this race that could surface which may make life tough for him. Also, Pletcher adds blinkers for the first time on this horse. That is an odd move to me and something I see as a negative. I also find it strange that he's running for $100K. Seems like there should be a better spot for him. There are enough question marks for me to make a case against him.

#5 Adirondack King won this race last year and also performed well in his last. He will be forwardly placed behind the leaders and likely get first jump on the closers. Big chance in here. My pick!

For exotics purposes I like both #3 Hereditary and #7 Ami's Flatter, preferring the former. Both of these horses will be coming from off the pace. In the case of Hereditary, he clearly likes Tampa and gets Jose Ortiz aboard.

5-2-3-7

Race 9 - Florida Oaks

This is a pretty nice little race. #5 La Coronel figures to be favored in here and for good reason. The Casses are known for their turf fillies and it looks like they've got another good one here. Bad, wide trip in the BC yet ran on well in the end.

#4 Daddy's Lil Darling tries turf for the first time. On dirt she was a dead closer. I'll expect her to come from off the pace as well. Trainer has a very good ROI in these spots, with some other attractive options in here I think this one is going to drift up from the ML and present the best value.

#7 Tamit is another Casse and with Julien on, figures to be much lower than the 6-1 morning line.

#9 Compelled and # 6 Fifty Five come out of the same race as Tamit, beating her at Gulfstream.

I'd play Daddy's Lil Darling at 7-1 or more, otherwise this is a pass race for me. I'd use all 5 in multis.

4-5-7-6-9

Race 10 - Hillsborough

I'm not sure what price we'll ultimately get in here, but I like #9 My Impression, who sits at 8-1 on the ML. She makes her 4 YO debut after winning a couple of stakes last fall. She's 1-1 at Tampa and really it isn't like there are a bunch of world beaters in here. A little improvement and she fits right in with this group.

After that, it is kind of  a free for all. I'm against #6 Isabella Sings, who has never won at this distance. Granted, there's no Tepin in here to catch her late, and while I think you have to use lone speed, she's going to be too short and crawling the final 16th.

#3 Dickinson and #5 Elsyea's World make a lot of since as well.

TOP PLAY - $20 Win #9, $2 Exacta Box 3,5,9

Race 11 - Tampa Bay Derby

To me this is a 3 horse race, and a pretty garbage field. Kind of a shame that the winner will make the gate in Saturday. But, who knows? Maybe someone steps up and blows our socks off.

#9 Wild Shot is my top pick. I know he's shown speed and I know his post isn't ideal, but I believe he can rate. I also believe that he needed his last race and will fire his best shot in this one. I think there could be some value here and I don't think the ML of 5-1 is far off.

#5 Tapwrit is going to be the favorite after his closing second to McKracken, but I don't know what to make of that race. He's going to get bet heavily and I'm just not sold that he's a legit contender.

#6 Beasley tries stakes company for the first time and looks like the most likely horse in the field to make a big stride forward.

9-5-6

SANTA ANITA 

 

Race 5 - San Felipe

I am way against Iliad. I think he's a sprinter. Baffert didn't try him two turns and we never heard word one about this horse before he was sent to O'Neill. That leads me to believe he's a sprinter and I don't think he's going to stay two turns.

That said this is a two horse race. I am a huge Gormley fan, but he will not be emptied in this race. He's already got Derby points and really just needs to hit the board. Shirreffs is a big picture guy and he's getting this horse ready for May. With that, I think Mastery is pretty close to a lock in this race as  a heavy favorite. He has zero points and he appears to be Baffert's 1A for the derby. He'll leave it all out there.

4-5-6-3

Race 6 - 1 Mile Turf Allowance

This is an incredibly tough race and one I wouldn't get too crazy with. I like #6 Ceeme Run Wild who is 5-1 on the ML. She gets Castellano and Hollendorfer is 8-20 stretching horses out after 2 sprints. The connections will likely get bet pretty heavy.

#2 Award it is super interesting to me. Out of Tapit and hasn't raced in 10 months. I'm going to treat this one like a first time starter. I have to imagine if the horse was no good, she'd be in for a claiming price. 15-1 on the ML. Finished 2nd to Mokat (a pretty good one) as a Maiden. Would not leave off my tickets.

Others I'm interested in - #11 Ava Forty Seven, #7 Mangita, #3 Jeremy's Legacy, #4 Shehastheritestuff

6-2-11-7

Race 7 - MSW 6 Furlongs

If you have a strong opinion in this race, you're a liar. Good freaking luck! #4 Saburo runs for a trainer who seems to own the horse as well. Has no record at Santa Anita but gets Gary Stevens to ride. Was a $600K purchase and man oh man, has some really nice works. Might go overlooked at the windows.  #12 Cascade Kid for Hollendorfer gets Castellano on board. Interesting, but will take some money. #11 American Pastime has some super fast worst and for a trainer that does all right first out.

My top pick is a total shot in the dark, but  there is logic behind it - #7 Malibu Music. Trainer only wins 4% with first time starters. But, Mike Smith rides! Why is that important? Hollendorfer has two in this race and Baffert has another. Surely Smith had the option of riding one of them. Light up the board! 20-1 ML

Race 8 - Triple Bend

As much as I dislike #5 Masochistic, he sure looks to have everything his own way in this one as lone speed. He's 3-3 at the distance and has beaten most of these before. #3 Kobe's Back hasn't raced in a long time and he doesn't figure to get a set up here, but on class he could get a piece. #4 Silent Bird has been running fast against allowance company. He cuts back and should get a nice trip. #1 Denman's Call is classy and tries stakes company again.

5-3-4-1

Race 9 - Kilroe Mile

I think this is a two horse race and I think there will be some value as the public should spread the money around. #6 Conquest Enforcer suffered a quarter crack last out and still ran a decent third. Word on the street is, this one is 100% and is going to sit right behind What A View and romp in the stretch. Send it in!

 

#3 Bolo LOVES Santa Anita with 4 wins and a 2nd in 5 tries. He'll finish second in this one. #5 Ring Weekend and #7 What A View will battle it out for 3rd.

6-3-7-5

Race 10 - Big Cap

I love #1 Midnight Storm and used him heavily to hit the tri in the BC Mile. But, 10F is out of his reach IMO. #3 Shaman Ghost ships in after running an AMAZING race in the Pegasus. I mean, he was awesome - so much better than everyone but Arrogate. #9 Imperative is a stayer! I'll look for him to be in the money. #7 Twentytwentyvision is never off the board on dirt. Could spice things up at a nice price.

3-9-7-1

Race 11 - China Doll

I like two in the finale - #5 Sircat Sally has only faced Cal Breds but is 3 for 3 and sports the best figs in the field. Strong connections. #10 Beau Recall tries stakes for the first time in America after a pretty impressive closing win in her debut.

5-10

 

 

 

 

 

[Adam]

Tampa Race 8 Pick 3 Tickets

5 / 4,5,6,7,9 / 3,5,9

2,5 / 4,5,6,7,9 / 9

SA Race 5 Pick 3 Tickets

4 / 2,3,4,6,7,11 / 4,7

4,5 / 2,3,6 / 7,11,12

SA Race 8 Pick 4

$5 Ticket 5 / 6 / 3 / 5,10

$.50 Ticket 4,5 / ALL / 3 / 5,10

[Homebrewer]

Late P4 SA..

Unless he falls down, nobody beats Masochistic in the 8th, and even though he might be less that even money, Ill spread later. If I'm not out after leg 1 I'll be feeling pretty good about the rest, and the pool should be fairly hefty on a big day like today.

All the rest have been discussed already, except for maybe #2 Go On Mary in the last. Stretching out on the turf, steady race and work tabs. Hoping she drifts up from the 10-1 ML. Castalleno gets on her for some reason other than fun..so I'm suspicious she might step up and steal this with the right trip..overall a tough race and if I get to this point I'll be glad I spread but still nervous. I'm feeling confident enough to bet this again for another .50...$48  total.

$1 P4 5

$1 P4 3, 5, 6, 7

$1 P4 1, 3

$1 P4 1, 2, 5, 10

Conditional Wager

MTP —0123456789101112131415

You have exceeded the maximum amount of bet permutations. Please reduce the number of runners

Wager Total $32.00

[Homebrewer]

they are hammering the shit out of Stanford..1-9 right now

1-5 going into the gate

1/2 final odds wins and breaks McCraken's track record.

[Homebrewer]

That doesn't look good..Mastery pulled up after the race,

What's the report from our man at the track @gotbeer ?

Gormely (4th) and Mastery both out of the Derby Trail?

[Homebrewer]

Got the exacta in race 7, just killing time. 11 ran away impressively down the stretch, should pay alright too.

Nice...34.20 for $1 x5= 140 profit...covers my P4 bets and gives me almost 100 winner guarantee..now here come the races I'm here for.

Guess Mastery walked into the van...but's that's all I've heard.

[Homebrewer]

well shit...waited all day for that?

[Homebrewer]

Now I don't feel so bad...

#1???

The DD paid 314!

[Homebrewer]

Well, degenerates...

Here goes my "guaranteed profit" plus a few bucks...but I have to get one race right today, other than the one I played from the tote.

I wouldn't do it if the probables board didn't look like it does..looking at 9 or 10 dollars either way so here goes..gulp

 

 

$50 EBX1, 3

Wager Total $100.00

[Homebrewer]

Well that was easy...should double my $100 investment and feel a little better about the day.

Can even play the last race and still come out ahead.

edit..paid $11 (5.50 for $1) more than I expected. Made $175.

so...

$2 TBX1, 2, 5, 10

Wager Total $48.00

 

$50 SHW2

Wager Total $50.00

[Homebrewer]

Castellano got squeezed out on the 2 there, but I did get the tri for 2 bucks so not a bad day overall..

depending on what it pays...

70 back on the 98 spent...so still a decent day...nothing special but made a few dollars on a day when the P6 carries, so that's something anyhow.

[Adam]

Tball and birthday party today.

 

I played a Conquest enforcer - shaman ghost double pretty aggressively.

the good news is I backed it up with a $2 pick 3 to end the day All / 3 / 5.

plus a huge exacta in the GP finale. +162. Some bullets for the rebel card

[Homebrewer]

3 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

Well, degenerates...

Here goes my "guaranteed profit" plus a few bucks...but I have to get one race right today, other than the one I played from the tote.

I wouldn't do it if the probables board didn't look like it does..looking at 9 or 10 dollars either way so here goes..gulp

 

 

$50 EBX1, 3

Wager Total $100.00

I learned, well re-learned, something about trusting my instincts/abilities...which can be hard to trust when a day is going sideways.

[Homebrewer]

Shaman Ghost was drifting out so much down the stretch that if I had bet everything 3-1,  I might have died of a heart attack before they hit the wire...and the money would have done me no good.

He must have drifted 10 wide at least. Thought he was eyeing GB's salad up there in the restaurant.  

[gotbeer]

Update.  Mastery.  Fracture.  Out indefinitely.

sucks, he ran great, but was pulled up quick.  Knew it was bad on the track, because it took forever to load him in the van.  It was green screen type bad.  Glad it didn't get to that point.  But front leg and few screws doesn't sound promising.

[gotbeer]

2 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

Shaman Ghost was drifting out so much down the stretch that if I had bet everything 3-1,  I might have died of a heart attack before they hit the wire...and the money would have done me no good.

He must have drifted 10 wide at least. Thought he was eyeing GB's salad up there in the restaurant.  

He was eying my beer.  I pulled out my shank and he straightened out.

OH, and BTW.  Salad?  I am not @Tank

[Tank]

what, one can't enjoy a nice kale and brussel sprouts salad with cranberries and almonds while watching the ponies? 

bunch a friggin' barbarians, all of you.

[Homebrewer]

So how was the crowd yesterday @gotbeer? They really didn't show much on the track feeds..

 

[gotbeer]

7 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

So how was the crowd yesterday @gotbeer? They really didn't show much on the track feeds..

 

It was kind of on the small side for big cap day.  Man was real drunk last night.  Almost slept through my wakeup for golf today.  You know you are in trouble, when your drink combination for the day is beer, then tequilla, then Jameson, then more beer, then sake.

[Homebrewer]

1 hour ago, gotbeer said:

It was kind of on the small side for big cap day.  Man was real drunk last night.  Almost slept through my wakeup for golf today.  You know you are in trouble, when your drink combination for the day is beer, then tequilla, then Jameson, then more beer, then sake.

Ouch dude..not that I haven't done that (and nearly in that order) but it's been awhile. 

[Adam]

Lordy, try coming up with a Derby top 5 right now... 

We may finally end the streak of favorites romping. 

Here's my top 5 most likely winners as of today.

1. Tapwrit - I can guarantee you that I won't be betting a Todd Pletcher horse in the Derby, but he's in the gate and you know he's not slow

2. Classic Empire - If he gets in the field and he's sound and he doesn't go full retard he's got as much talent as anyone.

3. McCracken - Same note as Classic Empire

4. Gunnevera - He's in the gate and distance won't be a problem. Will need pace meltdown and a clean trip

5. American Anthem - Have to have a California horse on the list and right now he seems most logical based on what we've seen.

 

 

[Homebrewer]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

Lordy, try coming up with a Derby top 5 right now... 

We may finally end the streak of favorites romping. 

Here's my top 5 most likely winners as of today.

1. Tapwrit - I can guarantee you that I won't be betting a Todd Pletcher horse in the Derby, but he's in the gate and you know he's not slow

2. Classic Empire - If he gets in the field and he's sound and he doesn't go full retard he's got as much talent as anyone.

3. McCracken - Same note as Classic Empire

4. Gunnevera - He's in the gate and distance won't be a problem. Will need pace meltdown and a clean trip

5. American Anthem - Have to have a California horse on the list and right now he seems most logical based on what we've seen.

 

 

Yeah...it's a muddy picture right now. I would think this might open things up for one of the highly thought of horses who have looked not so good on the track, to rebound, figure things out, and rejoin the race. 

[Homebrewer]

Maybe the other Sherreffs horse can add to the California entourage?

2017 Rebel Stakes (G2)

3/18/2017, Oaklawn Park

1 1/16 m (Dirt)

 

 

3 M

 

164		Royal Mo Uncle Mo	7.48	J. Shirreffs	1st, 2017 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)	Probable
257		Untrapped Trappe Shot	7.44	S. Asmussen	2nd, 2017 Risen Star (G2)	Probable
313		Uncontested Tiz Wonderful	7.07	W. Catalano	6th, 2017 Southwest Stakes (G3)	Probable
		Lookin At Lee Lookin At Lucky	6.65	S. Asmussen	3rd, 2017 Southwest Stakes (G3)	Probable
		American Anthem Bodemeister	6.56	B. Baffert	2nd, 2017 Sham Stakes (G3)	Probable
		Silver Dust Tapit	6.09	R. Morse	4th, 2017 Southwest Stakes (G3)	Probable
		Petrov Flatter	5.45	R. Moquett	2nd, 2017 Southwest Stakes (G3)	Probable
		Malagacy Shackleford	5.27	T. Pletcher	1st, GP AlwOC (2/12/2017-R4)	Probable
		Silver Bullion Pioneerof the Nile	5.12	D. Lukas

 

Note:

Royal Mo -- It looks like the hulking son of Uncle Mo will be the best chance for a Derby return for popular trainer, John Shirreffs. American Anthem should be tough in the Rebel, but futher improvement makes this one a very interesting commodity.

[Adam]

46 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Maybe the other Sherreffs horse can add to the California entourage?

2017 Rebel Stakes (G2)

3/18/2017, Oaklawn Park

1 1/16 m (Dirt)

 

 

3 M

 

164		Royal Mo Uncle Mo	7.48	J. Shirreffs	1st, 2017 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)	Probable
257		Untrapped Trappe Shot	7.44	S. Asmussen	2nd, 2017 Risen Star (G2)	Probable
313		Uncontested Tiz Wonderful	7.07	W. Catalano	6th, 2017 Southwest Stakes (G3)	Probable
		Lookin At Lee Lookin At Lucky	6.65	S. Asmussen	3rd, 2017 Southwest Stakes (G3)	Probable
		American Anthem Bodemeister	6.56	B. Baffert	2nd, 2017 Sham Stakes (G3)	Probable
		Silver Dust Tapit	6.09	R. Morse	4th, 2017 Southwest Stakes (G3)	Probable
		Petrov Flatter	5.45	R. Moquett	2nd, 2017 Southwest Stakes (G3)	Probable
		Malagacy Shackleford	5.27	T. Pletcher	1st, GP AlwOC (2/12/2017-R4)	Probable
		Silver Bullion Pioneerof the Nile	5.12	D. Lukas

 

Note:

Royal Mo -- It looks like the hulking son of Uncle Mo will be the best chance for a Derby return for popular trainer, John Shirreffs. American Anthem should be tough in the Rebel, but futher improvement makes this one a very interesting commodity.

I'm not giving up on Gormley. He already has enough points. He'll be in the gate if they want him to run. But, he needs to sit off the pace some. He wore down a short American Anthem but he can't press the pace and win. I'm sure we'll see him in the SA Derby sit off the pace.