Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

crazy.  Pick 5 carryover at Santa Anita tomorrow.  And there might be rain. 

[Homebrewer]

Pretty much a boat race for me today +or- 10 bucks or so..had to do some things this morn that kept me from getting involved as much as I wanted to, but all in all a fun day.

[Homebrewer]

The derby trail gets curioser and curioser with Irish War Cry and El Areeb running poorly.

[gotbeer]

3 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Pretty much a boat race for me today +or- 10 bucks or so..had to do some things this morn that kept me from getting involved as much as I wanted to, but all in all a fun day.

Tomorrow may be crazy at Santa Anita.  $300k pick 5 carryover.  Rain.  It could be a crazy payout.

[Homebrewer]

6 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Tomorrow may be crazy at Santa Anita.  $300k pick 5 carryover.  Rain.  It could be a crazy payout.

I'll take a look at that...thanks for the heads up.

[gotbeer]

2 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

The derby trail gets curioser and curioser with Irish War Cry running poorly.

Yeah, and the Gotham was nuts. El Areeb finished 3rd. 

[Homebrewer]

5 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Yeah, and the Gotham was nuts. El Areeb finished 3rd. 

I edited my post earlier

 

9 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

The derby trail gets curioser and curioser with Irish War Cry and El Areeb running poorly.

to reflect that...

McCracken is going to be an even money favorite unless something happens to stop him...which is just my luck...it's probably the earliest I have ever seen and picked a horse I knew was going to be there, and there will be no money to be made on him now.

sigh

[Adam]

Man I got crushed late. +$80 on day with the late double left at SA 

 

5,11/2,4

[Adam]

20 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

I edited my post earlier

 

to reflect that...

McCracken is going to be an even money favorite unless something happens to stop him...which is just my luck...it's probably the earliest I have ever seen and picked a horse I knew was going to be there, and there will be no money to be made on him now.

sigh

Nah. He hasn't run fast enough yet despite visually impressive wins. Unless he puts up a 105 beyer in his last prep, even if he's favored it will be in the 3-1 range.

Still a lot that can happen. The San felipe is going to be a fast race. Unless something silly happens the winner of that race is going to jump to the top of the board. 

Im still on gormley. Sheriffs knows how to get a horse ready for a big race. He will be peaking in May. Hopefully he's good enough. I want him to run a couple of 2nds in his next two races.

It will be interesting to see how American Anthem and Mastery do in their next preps. 

[Homebrewer]

23 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Tomorrow may be crazy at Santa Anita.  $300k pick 5 carryover.  Rain.  It could be a crazy payout.

$0.50 Pick-5 (6/2/4/2/3) Paid $11,880.30 (5OF5)

Wasn't particularly tough sequence either..highest odds winner was 6 or 7-1.

[gotbeer]

32 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

$0.50 Pick-5 (6/2/4/2/3) Paid $11,880.30 (5OF5)

Wasn't particularly tough sequence either..highest odds winner was 6 or 7-1.

If you went all

5 x 10 x 5 x 6 x 6 = 9000 / $0.50 = $4500 ticket.  LOL

[Homebrewer]

wow

[gotbeer]

UPI Horse Racing Roundup: Irish War Cry, El Areeb upset on Derby trail

Pretty thorough breakdown of all the racing around the world this weekend.

[Adam]

El Areeb is slow. Irish War Cry looks like he needs the lead.

 

I will say though, if you listen to Steve Byk yesterday, and you should, they talked a lot about the Gulfstream surface. Because of the high winds the track as very sandy. They couldn't keep water on it. Gunnevera may have actually run faster. I don't think I've ever seen a horse come from as far back as he did at that place. On the East Coast, he's the only one I want right now. I'm gonna need to see it again from J Boy...

[Adam]

SA Saturday.pdf

[gotbeer]

I'll be at the track.  Since I'm a degenerate. 

It's sweet though.  Santa Anita finally got with the times.  And you can make advanced reservations at Frontrunner through opentable.  And they even give you club tickets, so admission if free.  No more speed dialing on the phone only to have them say sold out.

[Homebrewer]

32 minutes ago, Adam said:

SA Saturday.pdf

That's a nice card all around, even the minor races are Allowances and MSW.

Only 7 in the Felipe...but still going to be a tough race to cap.

[Adam]

My buddy sent me Tampa too

Tampa Saturday.pdf

[Homebrewer]

Can Midnight Storm get the trip?...lone speed...could wire them all if he can.

GB, has there been any bias toward speed on the main? Should be warm and hard there.

[gotbeer]

16 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Can Midnight Storm get the trip?...lone speed...could wire them all if he can.

GB, has there been any bias toward speed on the main? Should be warm and hard there.

I really haven't been paying too much attention this season so far.  I know last season there was a definite bias towards speed.  Thats one thing Brisnet does well, is break down the bias'.  Maybe I'll just get it for the select information. 

[gotbeer]

if you want the brisnet form for SA, send me your email info via AW mail.  Won't let me post it on here since it's too large.

[gotbeer]

race 1 6 f speed (E) 41%, speed pace (EP) 39% - last week E 50%, EP/(closer S) 25%

race 2 6 1/2 downhill no bias - LW Late (P) 40%/S 25%

race 3 1 1/4 E 45, EP 29 - LW E 43, EP 29

race 4 5 1/2 E 33, EP 39% - LW E 33, S 67

race 5 1 1/16 no bias - LW E/P/S 33%

race 6 1 T no bias - LW EP 50%

race 7 6 f E 41%, EP 39%, LW E 50, EP/S 25

race 8 7f e 29, EP 50, LW EP 50, S 50

race 9 1 T no bias, LW EP 50

race 10 1 1/4 E 45, EP 29, LW E 43, EP 29

race 11 1 T no bias, LW EP 50

 

Overall, I would say no bias on the turf.  But on the dirt.  Frontrunners are doing well.

[Homebrewer]

17 hours ago, gotbeer said:

race 1 6 f speed (E) 41%, speed pace (EP) 39% - last week E 50%, EP/(closer S) 25%

race 2 6 1/2 downhill no bias - LW Late (P) 40%/S 25%

race 3 1 1/4 E 45, EP 29 - LW E 43, EP 29

race 4 5 1/2 E 33, EP 39% - LW E 33, S 67

race 5 1 1/16 no bias - LW E/P/S 33%

race 6 1 T no bias - LW EP 50%

race 7 6 f E 41%, EP 39%, LW E 50, EP/S 25

race 8 7f e 29, EP 50, LW EP 50, S 50

race 9 1 T no bias, LW EP 50

race 10 1 1/4 E 45, EP 29, LW E 43, EP 29

race 11 1 T no bias, LW EP 50

 

Overall, I would say no bias on the turf.  But on the dirt.  Frontrunners are doing well.

Inside frontrunners seem to be the ticket...and Midnight Storm fits that bill.

Looks like an easy exacta with Shaman Ghost.

Midnight Storm and Shaman Ghost...some sort of paranormal ju-ju goin on there..

[gotbeer]

Hmm.  Race 2, downhill turf.  #10 Dr. Troutman. 

[Adam]

I would bet homebrewer's pension on Shaman Ghost tomorrow