Thoroughbred Racing

[Homebrewer]

I can relate. Maybe Adam can recommend a better bed for him or some exercises.

[Adam]

Gulfstream Saturday - In Reverse Order

Race 13 - FOY Stakes

 

#8 Irish War Cry is going to be close to even money. He's a must use, but I'm against him from a value standpoint. There's more speed in this race than he saw in The Holy Bull. He's drawn a little further outside than is ideal and I think there's a chance he gets hung wide and a less than ideal trip. If he's forced to close, I think there are better off the pace types in here. #2 Gunnevera had a horrible trip in the Holy Bull around the far turn and in the stretch and finished strongly. He's drawn inside and should save ground under JJ. I'll be pulling for #7 Three Rules to earn some points. Love State breds outrunning their pedigree. He'll have to clear or be tactical because there is going to be a lot of pace on the front end.

 

2 - 8 - 7 - 6

 

Multis - 2,8

 

Race 12 - 11F Turf

 

This is a very competitive race and certainly one I'm going to go deep in. I landed on #7 Bigger Picture who beat some of these at Aqueduct last year at this distance. He should be forwardly placed and get a great trip. We'll see if he's good enough. #6 Mr. Maybe, who should be a fair price after a poor effort when most of these horses faced off last time. He lacked room in the stretch. He's run well 2nd off the layoff before and he gets that chance here. #4 Wake Forest should be the shorter Brown horse and he's not without a chance in here. He doesn't like to win though. JJ chooses him over Mr. Maybe. #1 Danish Dynaformer was my pick in his last and didn't fire. His works have been really fast and like others, he may have needed the last. He's got a win at the distance and could get a dream trip on the rail. #5 Charming Kitten also has a race under his belt and fits well with this group.

 

7-6-4-1-5

 

Multis - 1,4,5,6,7

 

Race 11 - 8F Turf

 

#3 Heart To Heart is going to be extremely tough in here. He should get an easy lead, which he needs. He should run better than he did last out as he's another who may have needed one. I imagine he'll win this race rather easily, albeit at an incredibly short price. Rounding out the exotics in here is tough. #6 Giant Run may go overlooked at the windows, but he's got a good record, a lot of earnings and can sit in a stalking position. If I were going to include another in my multis, I'd probably look at #2 Projected for Chad Brown. 1st time in the States. Not sure what you're going to get, but he doesn't have to be too good to compete with this group. I don't think this field will be too spread out at the wire. #4 Bondurant makes some sense at the bottom of exotics.

 

3-6-2-4

 

Multis - 3

 

Race 10 - Davona Dale

 

Where's the Todd Pletcher Filly coming off of a MSW win? This race is tough! The fillies seem to be far behind the boys at this stage in the game and you can expect a number of them in this field to take a step or two or three forward. But which ones? The logicals include: #7 Miss Sky Warrior, #9 Eloquent Riddle and #12 Pretty City Dancer. I prefer the latter, as she ran well off the layoff, only beaten a length going 7. The extra furlong should be no problem. Casse barn has been cold though, particularly on dirt. 9-2 or better and she'll get my money. #14 Champagne Problems showed a lot of talent as a 2YO in KY and you can draw a line through her 3YO debut. Definitely worth considering at probably 50-1! I'm leary of Chad Brown on dirt and wonder how good Eloquent Riddle really is. Miss Sky Warrior may come up a bit short off the layoff. I anticipate #13 Brahm's Cat being a nice price and she finished just behind my top choice last out. Worth a look at least underneath.

12-14--9-13-7

Multis - 9,12,14

Race 9 - The Palm Beach 8.5 F Turf

At first glance this looks like a piece of cake. Take the inside and the outside and move on. But, looking deeper, Javier Castellano chooses to ride #7 Pagliacci over #9 Ticonderoga. Or, it would seem. Casse has a Woodbine shipper in #2 Sailing Home. Of course, #1 Cowboy Culture comes in with  nice inside post, the highest speed fig and a perfect 3-3 record. Also, look he beat in his last... I'll lean on #1 and #7 and use #2 and #9 sparingly.

1-7-9-2

Multis - 1,7

Race 8 - MSW 7F Dirt

Loaded with 1st time starters. I'm leaning on connections, pedigree and trainer stats. #1 Caviar Czar...Pletcher and Velasquez. #8 Texican and #11 Timeline, both for Chad Brown. I'm going to limit it to these three and hope I can survive. #4 Valdocco has experience and could get into the trifecta.

1-11-8-4

Multis - 1,8,11

Race 7 - The Very One 9.5F Turf

There's no reason why #3 Suffused shouldn't find herself in the winner's circle again if there's any pace at all. If anything she should improve 2nd off the layoff and run even better than last time. #1 Olorda looks logical for the exacta, and could steal this one if she's not challenged on the front end. Lightly raced, improving. 1-1 at GP. #5 Try Your Luck always gives a good effort and should run her race. If there's a pace collapse #6 Paige could be dangerous at a big number.

3-1-5-6

Multis - 1,3

Race 6 - 8F Turf

You can't hit longshots, if you never bet them. The two ML favorites in here are very formidable, but not without question marks. #5 Catch A Glimpse beat any and everything to start her career but really faltered late in 2016. She makes her 4 YO debut but I don't know that I want to put my money on a heavily bet question mark. I prefer #8 Celestine, who goes to the Mott barn. She's the classiest of this bunch, and the fastest historically. While Mott does well off the layoff there's always a chance a horse like this will need one. #1 Ice Palace is 20-1 on the ML and has a best beyer, which is 19 points lower than Celestine, but she got good late last year, winning her final two starts, including a Grade III. I like the inside, and this horse will be forwardly placed. She may also need one, but I'm excited to use her at what I think will be 25 or 30-1. Turf races almost always come down to trip and #9 My Sweet Girl should get a good one under Ortiz.

1-8-9-5

Multi's - 1,8,9

Race 5 - 8F Dirt

This is a really cool field loaded with some former Triple Crown hopefuls. Competitive as well! #3 Realm finished 3rd in the Cigar Mile behind Connect and Divining Rod - a better performance than I can see in this race. He'll get my top choice at what figures to be a good price. #4 Bird Song ran a very good 2nd to Tommy Macho in the Hal's Hope. #8 Greenpointcrusader is the wild card in here. We don't really know how good he is. He got a prep in and he's 2nd out for Pletcher. Must use IMO. #7 War Story is finally at the right level.

3-4-8-7

Multi's - 3,4,8

Race 4 - 8.5F Turf

Please hand me a dart and point me to the dart board. There are a couple of classy horses in this field, including a BC runner up. #4 Coasted finished 2nd in November. But, this trainer is 0-17 off the layoff and 0-17 in Graded Stakes since the beginning of last year. Go for it, gamblers. I'll pass. If ever there were a race to buy, it would be this one. That being the case I'll make my top selection what figures to be a decent price. #5 Happy Mesa finished last year off form. She obviously has talent though and I'll hope that she shows a lot of improvement in her first 3 YO start - not an uncommon occurrence.

5-1-4-6

Multis - ALL

Race 3 - MSW 8.5F Dirt

#4 Prince Tito has already routed twice. Positive jock switch. #7 Super Buddy. Velasquez opts off of the Pletcher for this one. Positive sign. #8 Eastport will need to show more speed but ran a good second last out. Don't like the post though. #1 Blind Ambition burned money in his debut, including mine.

4-7-8-1

Multis - 4,7

Race 2 - MSW 7.5F Turf

#9 Master Merion figures to take a lot of money but should be on or near the lead and just have to have enough finish to get it done. Ward does very well in these spots. #6 Inheritthewind is a 1st timer for Casse/Leparoux in a pretty pedestrian field. #2 Wannabeplayer comes in off a couple nice board-hitting efforts. Should be a nice price. #7 Compagno for a small piece.

9-6-2-7

Multis - 6,9

Race 1 - 9F Dirt

#1 Always Dreaming looks like an absolute LOCK in this spot...figures to be odds on. #6 Gamble's Citizen looks live in here. Generally these small time Woodbine trainers don't ship away from synth unless they've got a real runner. Just those two for me.

1-6

Multis - 1

[Homebrewer]

Nice analysis..Champagne Problems and Greenpointcrusader were already solidly on my radar as sneaky plays. Gut feeling and my money says Crusader shows us just how good he is. 

Blind Ambition might make up from his disappointing debut with the rail spot, and at much better odds.

Suffused is so classy and professional and the most obvious single of the day IMO.

[Adam]

Heard Caton Bradar on Steve Byk today. She says greenpointcrusader's works have been pretty shitty. I'll use him but mostly defensively. 

[Homebrewer]

3 hours ago, Adam said:

Heard Caton Bradar on Steve Byk today. She says greenpointcrusader's works have been pretty shitty. I'll use him but mostly defensively. 

Good...that's exactly what I want to hear. Means the connections are pooling up the cash and I might need to dig down for another 20.

[Adam]

Bird song has a pretty big pace advantage.... I like realm tho. He should be 6-1 or so.

[gotbeer]

TimeformUS Kentucky Derby prep analysis: Gunnevera should get a more favorable setup in the Fountain of Youth

[gotbeer]

My buddy says that the 1 in race 1 and 9 in race 2 are singles.  So I guess I'll put some money down on the double.  Looking at the probable payouts, the double will pay $10. 

[Adam]

Yikes in that 9. Should've used the 6 dude.

 

woukd love the 6 in race 3. Alive to 1,6,8

[Adam]

I crushed that 5th race

super twice

tri

double

pick 3

[Homebrewer]

Had to do a bunch of running around this morn but I see I'm alive in this P4 although it's with 2 favorites..(thank you Suffused)

5-8-11 here...need a price.

[Homebrewer]

Crusader didn't even hit the board...I will be watching some replays after this race.

[Homebrewer]

Thought I might get a little bit of a price there...but the wire kept moving away from them.

This P4 wont pay anything..but I'm alive to 1-4-6-9

4 and 6 will pay OK..80.00. More than I expected.

Went ahead and played a 1-4-6-9 tri box

[Adam]

That sucked

[Homebrewer]

5-9-12-14 here...bombs away.. 

[Homebrewer]

sheesh..

[Homebrewer]

Race 11

Back to square 1

$0.50 TRI1, 3, 6

$0.50 TRI1, 3, 6

$0.50 TRI1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

Wager Total $18.00

[Homebrewer]

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
1	J Boys Echo	Albarado R	$14.80	$7.30	$2.70
9	Cloud Computing	Franco M	-	$6.50	$3.30
4	El Areeb	McCarthy T	-	-	$2.10
10	Action Everyday	Maragh R	-	-	-

Replay

Scratched: Miggsy (3), Glennrichment (5), Apartfromthecrowd (7)

Winning Trainer: Dale L Romans – Owner: Albaugh Family Stable

$2 Exacta (1-9) Paid $114.50

$0.50 Trifecta (1-9-4) Paid $54.50

$0.10 Superfecta (1-9-4-10) Paid $55.85

$2 Double (1/1) Paid $22.40

$2 GSL (3,4,5,6/2,3,5,7/1,5/1) Paid $30.00 (4OF4)

$2 Pick-3 (3/1/1) Paid $62.50 (3OF3)

Damn..now I wish I had played this one.

[Homebrewer]

3 rules getting NO respect at 19-1

tri box 2-6-7-8

[gotbeer]

If 3 rules can get a clean 2nd/3rd around the turn, and not get ridden like an ass like I believe in the last race.  He has a shot.

[Homebrewer]

I also spent another 12 bucks with a 2-6-8-9

[gotbeer]

Best case scenario for me is if Three Rules wins, and Practical Joke comes in second.  Then I'd have two shooters in the Derby.

[gotbeer]

A win by Made you Look would also be good for me.  I have 175-1 on him for the Derby.

[gotbeer]

Can't fault Three Rules there.  He gave it his best.  Practical Joke I just don't know.  He seems to like second.  he looked like he was going to run on by Three Rules.  But Three Rules battled back.  I guess he still has an outside shot at making the Derby.  I think Practical Joke though may have enough points now so that's a good thing.

[Homebrewer]

Rules was not embarrassed there by any means..she was no match for Gunavera's strong stretch move. That was impressive.

The tri should put me ahead for the day