Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

Good read. Important info for handicapping two-turn races on any surface and all turf races

 

http://www.drf.com/news/andrew-beyer-run-distances-add-nothing-distortion

[gotbeer]

50 minutes ago, Adam said:

Good read. Important info for handicapping two-turn races on any surface and all turf races

 

http://www.drf.com/news/andrew-beyer-run-distances-add-nothing-distortion

That is interesting.  I always wondered that at Santa Anita.  Not on the turf, but on the dirt.  Occassionally with some mile + races, they seem to start at a different spot.  It's not a huge change.  Just not a precise one.  At least with the turf, there is only one place to start, since there is only one opening for the gate.  And at least they will tell you the rail distance, since 1 mile with no rail is different than 1 mile with a 20 foot rail. 

One solution could be them having marker poles on the outside rail. 

[Homebrewer]

On 2/13/2017 at 10:59 AM, Adam said:

Good read. Important info for handicapping two-turn races on any surface and all turf races

 

http://www.drf.com/news/andrew-beyer-run-distances-add-nothing-distortion

excellent information...I was vaguely aware of run-ups but unaware that different tracks use such largely different distances..and I always assumed they were MUCH shorter. Over a football field in length makes zero sense to me. I've never really understood the rail settings, although it is always mentioned in the conditions...so these are two variables with which I obviously need to acquaint and educate myself.  . Learn something new all the time in this game.

Thanks for posting..

[Homebrewer]

Royal Mo Picking Up Momentum on Kentucky Derby Trail

                             AND

 Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

 

 

https://www.americasbestracing.net/the-sport/2017-royal-mo-picking-momentum-kentucky-derby-trail

[Tank]

am i the only one who read Royal Mo as Rallymo?

[Homebrewer]

no. I was trying to remember who the Uncle Mo horse was, and rallymo was what I first came up with.

[gotbeer]

El Camino Real at Golden Gate this weekend.  It's a points race, but not too thrilled about it.

PP	Horse	Virtual Stable	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	Zakaroff (KY)		3/G	L	K Frey	122	S Specht	20/1
2	More Power to Him (CA)		3/C	L	A Gomez	122	F Taylor	6/1
3	Ann Arbor Eddie (CA)		3/G	L	M Gutierrez	122	D F O'Neill	2/1
4	Tribal Storm (CA)		3/R	L	A Cedillo	122	E Moger, Jr.	8/1
5	Sheer Flattery (KY)		3/C	L	F T Alvarado	122	J Hollendorfer	7/5
6	Colonel Samsen (KY)		3/G	L	R Gonzalez	122	E G Harty	10/1
7	Kona Dreams (KY)		3/G	L	I Ocampo	122	G Papaprodromou	8/1

[Adam]

Just bet O'Neill 

[Homebrewer]

O'Neil also has Iliad, and some others sneaking onto the trail...the rainey winter (Thanks AO) has set back some of the west coast horses this year.

So Conflated, in whom we went into in great detail last week and could be a real sleeper in the upcoming Santa Anita stakes, breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 at the Arcadia track. Could he be the first Golden Gate/Tapeta horse to make an impact on the Derby? Or maybe it will be stablemate Ann Arbor Eddie, who will have the services of Mario Gutierrez in Saturday’s El Camino Real Derby.

https://www.americasbestracing.net/races/2017-el-camino-real-derby

[Adam]

It will be interesting in the San Felipe and/or Santa Anita derby...

Gormley, American Anthem, Royal Mo and Iliad all like to go fast early. Gormley has showed he could sit off in the Sham.

Mastery or American Anthem will probably go to Arkansas. Wouldn't surprise me if Sherriffs split his up too. 

I think this is the most interesting prep season in a few years. Also looks like we will get some good prices on California horses in The Derby

[Homebrewer]

13 hours ago, Adam said:

It will be interesting in the San Felipe and/or Santa Anita derby...

Gormley, American Anthem, Royal Mo and Iliad all like to go fast early. Gormley has showed he could sit off in the Sham.

Mastery or American Anthem will probably go to Arkansas. Wouldn't surprise me if Sherriffs split his up too. 

I think this is the most interesting prep season in a few years. Also looks like we will get some good prices on California horses in The Derby

Most interesting indeed...

[gotbeer]

Santa Anita canceled Fridays card.  And like idiots they have 3 turf races scheduled for Saturday.

[gotbeer]

White Turf Races: The horse race with an alpine edge

So which of you high rollers are going to take me to Switzerland to watch this race and enjoy some truffles and caviar?

[gotbeer]

Saturday night/Sunday Japan time, is the second leg of the Japan road to the Kentucky Derby. 

Tokyo Racecourse
Cattleya Sho	11/26/2016	1 Mile	2	TOKYO	JPN	(40) Mont Saint Legame	(16) Caucus	(8) Blanc Eclat	(4) Lavapies
Hyacinth	TBD	1 Mile	3	TOKYO	JPN	(50)	(20)	(10)	(5)

Race 9 in tokyo

		Adirato(JPN)	C3	56.0	Rulership Narita Blue Star	Manhattan Cafe Storm Tigresse	Yutaka Take Naosuke Sugai	Koji Yasuhara Tagami Farm
		Bullbear Baboon(JPN)	C3	56.0	Precise End Silk Versailles	Special Week Silk Flare	Norihiro Yokoyama Norio Fujisawa	Bull and Bear Co. Ltd. Koki Abe
		Captain King(JPN)	C3	56.0	Fasliyev Strawberry Parfait	Brian's Time Waltz Dancer	Yutaro Nonaka Kazuhiro Kato	Toshio Hiramoto Shizunai Fujikawa Bokujo
		Caucus(JPN)	C3	56.0	Street Sense Talk Show	Diktat High Hawk	Keita Tosaki Hideaki Fujiwara	HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Darley Japan K.K
		Copano Mizaru(JPN)	C3	56.0	Matsurida Gogh Some Time Later	End Sweep Ein Tochter	Ryuji Tatsushiro Chiaki Hori	Yusuke Kobayashi Kazuo Nishimura
		Epicharis(JPN)	C3	57.0	Gold Allure Stapes Mitsuko	Carnegie Martin Miyuki	Christophe Lemaire Kiyoshi Hagiwara	U.Carrot Farm Masatsugu Kamada
		Foggy Night(JPN)	C3	56.0	Tapit Champagne d'Oro	Medaglia d'Oro Champagne Glow	Ryan Moore Noriyuki Hori	Kaneko Makoto Holdings Co. Ltd. Shadai Farm
		Goodhumour(JPN)	C3	56.0	Lohengrin Venera	Forty Niner Darkest Star	Masaki Katsuura Yutaka Takahashi	Dearest Club Co. Ltd. Takeda Bokujo
		Hypernova(JPN)	C3	56.0	I'll Have Another Special Queen	Special Week Social Queen	Hideaki Miyuki Hiroyuki Oneda	Junzo Miyakawa Junzo Miyakawa
		Liverdy(JPN)	C3	56.0	Smart Falcon Haute Cuisine	French Deputy Meyadini	Ryuji Wada Tadashige Nakagawa	Sato Farm Co. Ltd. Sugata Bokujo
		Matera Sky(USA)	C3	56.0	Speightstown Mostaqeleh	Rahy Istiqlal	Masayoshi Ebina Hideyuki Mori	Tsuyoshi Ono Lynch Bages LTD
		Mont Saint Legame(JPN)	C3	56.0	Came Home Julia Biko	Jade Robbery Scarlet Rose	Takuya Kowata Koji Maki	Shinichi Yamashita Kawashima Bokujo
		Shigeru Bengaltora(JPN)	C3	56.0	Precise End Rose Halo	King Halo Tsujino Rose	Yasunari Iwata Toshiyuki Hattori	S.Morinaka Ishida Bokujo
		Shigeru Kong(JPN)	C3	57.0	Sinister Minister Do Honour	Dance in the Dark Honour the Mint	Hiroyuki Uchida Yasutoshi Matsunaga	S.Morinaka Yoshitaka Masumoto
		Stapes Maria(JPN)	F3	54.0	Pyro Win Blossom	Special Week Katydid	Yukito Ishikawa Mamoru Ishibashi	Wakako kono Kinya Murakami

[Adam]

Came Home was my favorite horse for a long time. Glad to see he's still making babies.

 

I'll take the Tapit though. 

[Homebrewer]

@Adam...how bout a DRF free PP race today?

[Adam]

Freaking forumlator isn't formatted for iPhone and I left my computer at work. Lemme see if I can find a brisnet pp

[Adam]

Alright here's a two turn stakes at laurel 

 

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=LRL&race=8&param1=1476&param2=1312&param3=1226336

[gotbeer]

@AdamGetting an error trying to download it. 

[Adam]

I quick capped it. I think there's a good chance that the 2nd and 3rd choices are a bit short off the layoff. I'm going to key Page McKenney on top as he's the most likely winner.

I think there are a couple of nice priced horses coming into the race in good form. #1 Cosmic Destiny and #7 Charitable Annuity both have every reason to run big.

$40 Exacta 6 / 1,7

$5 Trifecta 1,7 / 6 / 4,5

[Adam]

http://trks2day.com/saturday.html

 

scroll down to laurel and click race 8

[Homebrewer]

I have a hunch on 8 Bodisatva, claimed 3 back and has improved every race since. Finished behind Page last time out, and best closer of the group. Price is right too.

4 and 5 are classier horses than this bunch but both come back from long layoffs. Both could also defeat this group and have top trainers, so can't be ignored.

6 makes the most sense on the front end.

7 and 9 both interest me at a price.

This is a race I'd probably want to be paddock watching to see the horses before I put any money on the line..it's tough.

Looked em over on TV

4 tri box 5-6-7-8

$96

[Homebrewer]

I'm gonna fill buckets guys...23-1!

I bet it for .50.

[Adam]

Nice!

[Homebrewer]

318.90 x4 in play $96 worth of play money.

or in real money

for 12.00 I got back

159.45