Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

40 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Hanging his head in shame I hope. I've been responsible for many a horse's decline lately...mostly it's just been stumbling out of the gate and losing all chance at the start, but this one made it most of the way down the backstretch in the lead.. before throwing in the towel.

I've been the same way.  I'll like a "live" longshot.  And 20 yards into the race, he has no shot.

[Adam]

Race of The Day! http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=SA&country=USA&raceDate=20170210&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=1#past-performance-race/1

 

This is my favorite race in North American racing - big allowance field going down the hill at SA. I'm gonna get down on this one so I'm gonna take a little extra time. 

[gotbeer]

Supposed to start raining starting at noon.  My guess is, they will take it off.  With probably lot's of defections.

So I'm going to handicap based on it taken off.

Edited February 10, 2017 by gotbeer

[Adam]

Ahh shit you're right

[gotbeer]

Looking at the radar for Arcadia.  There is a chance they get this race in before the rain.  But it looks close.

[Adam]

I'm not wasting my time with it. 

 

Skye Diamond looks good. Crushed in the slop last time. 

[gotbeer]

• 1 horse runs on turf or dirt.  He's won stakes races, but his last win has been at a lower level.  Pedroza stays on this horse, instead of the 2.  He also hasn't raced since November. 
• 2 another horse that runs turf or dirt.  Pedroza jumps off, Desourmoux jumps on.  The last WF race he ran, he didn't do very well at all. 
• 3 an invader from the east.  Two negatives I don't like, layoff since may, and a change in trainer.  He's taking a huge drop in class.  And overall hasn't done too poorly.  Has never run on grass, and he's won a G1 in the slop. 
• 4 A turf specialist.  He ran in the slop last out, and didn't do well at all.  Won at Del Mar on the turf, at a shorter distance, and lower stakes.  Overall, I think this is a pass horse.
• 5  Another turf specialist.  Won on the downhill in her maiden.  Hasn't raced since July, and is coming down in class.  While I don't like the layoff, this looks like a good fit.  Bendejo stays on this one.
• 6  Hasn't raced since November.  Outside of the first, ran on the turf.  Cutting back in distance.  Level seems about right.  Nakatani won twice on her.  Should be in the exotics.
• 7  A dirt runner.  Ran in the slop last time and didn't do much.  Bendejo jumps off this and goes to the 5. This looks like a horse that needs easier.
• 8  a turf runner, that did nothing on his only dirt run.  is moving down slightly in class.  He showed progress in the last 2 races.  But is moving up in distance.  Pass.
• 9 mainly a dirt runner.  Won last time on the slop at a lower level.   Moving up in class.  He seems to do better at the lower levels.  But struggles outside of the 40k range.  exotics.
• 10 Runs on dirt or turf.  Is cutting back in distance.  hasn't done well at this level at all.  Only win was the maiden breaker.  pass.

 

Overall, I think I'm with Adam.  This race will change in a dime based on dirt/turf and how many defections.  My guess is off the turf and ends up with 6 horses.  Will look at it again after lunch and the future is much clearer.

[gotbeer]

@Adam You might be in luck Adam.  Looks like the rain got pushed back till about 2 o'clock at SA.

[Adam]

Ooooh

[Adam]

There may be some scratches from trainers hoping it would be taken off. Lots of dirt form in the PPs

[gotbeer]

6 1/2 F downhill, that stays on the downhill.

• 1 layoff since november.  Pedroza stays on, and takes this instead of the 2.  Looks to be more of a dirt runner than turf.  Ran the downhill once, and finished off the board a long long time ago.  on 3 tries on turf, tried to be frontrunner, but tired at 1 mile.  The 6 1/2 downhill is more like a mile race than a sprint race, so I'll pass.
• 2  Desourmoux jumps on, Pedroza goes to the 1.  Has experience in the downhill, and likes to close.  Tries to go frontrunner at a mile on the turf.  From his recent turf races, he is dropping down in class.  Dangerous.
• 3  East coast invader.  Dirt runner, with a change in Trainer, and a layoff since May.  Moving down in class.  This might be dead money.  too many question marks, pass.
• 4  a turf runner.  Foreign horse, so always dangerous.  seems to like shorter, and faded at 1m.  exotics?
• 5 Layoff since July.  Bendejo stays on this one.  Broke his maiden on the downhill.  Has been running 1m+ and at a higher class level.  Dangerous.
• 6  Corey jumps back on him.  Layoff since November.  Has been running at a mile.  has not been doing well at this level, but stays at it.  second off a claim.  exotics tri/super.
• 7  never ran on the turf or downhill.  has run at this level last 2.  had some luck at sprint stakes.  Bendejo jumps off of this one.  exotics tri/super
• 8  has run in shorter sprint turf races.  is dropping down in class.  hasn't raced since december.  didn't show much in the last 2.  pass.
• 9  dirt runner.  ran once on the turf at a mile and didn't show much.  has come in first or second last four, but at a lower level.  Looks to be more of a 40k horse than a 62k horse.  pass
• 10  hasn't run since october.  broke his maiden on the 1m turf.  hasn't done much lately, but won at a 40k turf race.  prefer the 9 over the 10.  pass

 

So, depending on who runs.  Leaning towards

$10 exacta 2/5 box $20

$5 exacta 2,5/2,5,6,7 $30

$1 tri 2,5/2,5,6,7 $12

$0.50 super 2,5/2,5,6,7 $6

$0.10 super 2,5,6,7 box $2.40

$14 win 2/5

Edited February 10, 2017 by gotbeer

[gotbeer]

2 hours out.  shows still on the turf.  And no scratches. 

[Adam]

Looks like it will stay.

 

I really like 5 if the odds are 9-2 or better. Solid numbers for trainer off layoff. There are a number of horses in here I think can run well. I kinda like the 10 horse, with a lot of turf experience, cutting back. Talamo used to own the downhill. 6 has a shot too. Trainer kills it off the claim. 2 and 8 look like they can hit the board at a price. I'm going to lean on the ones with turf experience. 

$1 SPR 5,6,10 / 5,6,10 / 2,5,6,8,10 / 2,5,6,8,10 - $36

$10 WPS  #5 & #10 - $60

$4 Trifecta 6-5-10

[Adam]

#10 is 30-1.

 

Good Lord. Way too long. Love it

[gotbeer]

9 got scratched.

[gotbeer]

Ok, so umm.  Guess I just didn't see that one at all.

[Adam]

Yeah that one was impossible to come up with

[gotbeer]

2 hours ago, Adam said:

Yeah that one was impossible to come up with

The only thing I saw was that Pedroza stayed on him.  I guess those short guys know what they are doing.

[Adam]

Trainer is shitty off the layoff and dirt to turf. Rail is a nightmare post down the hill. Figs were lacking. Nothing to like. 

[Homebrewer]

Sam F Davis about to be run at Tampa..McCraken is in. (3-5)

[Homebrewer]

They tried everything to trap and box McCraken in, but he just laid back and circled the field...breaking the track record while doing it (held by Destin) 1:42.45

That should open some eyes.

Sharp Azteca running at Gulfstream in the next race there.

 

[gotbeer]

McCraken's running style would really look good in a 20 horse field.  Let all the crap sort itself out up front.  Wide turn with momentum, and clean up.

[Homebrewer]

33 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

McCraken's running style would really look good in a 20 horse field.  Let all the crap sort itself out up front.  Wide turn with momentum, and clean up.

That style reminds me of a girl named Zenny..

[Adam]

No one closes at Tampa. That was impressive. The acceleration on the turn was something else. He flatlined in the stretch then changed leads like a pro. Looks like the clear favorite at this point.

[Adam]

Picked up a nice chunk on derbywars yesterday!