Thoroughbred Racing

[Homebrewer]

14 hours ago, Adam said:

I just missed an 11K super in Australia by a nose on Sat. Had the first 3 and 5th horse

Good racing there...especially this time of year. Almost every town has a track that they use a couple of weeks a year. It's sort of like our fair circuit here except on a grander scale, with nicer tracks, an "event" atmosphere,  and better quality horses.

And of course there's the Melbourne Cup where the entire country shuts down, they pack into the pubs, and its a national event. Almost 2 miles takes something like 3 1/2 minutes to run.  

[Adam]

Handicap this race. $100 mythical bankroll. How would you play it?

 

http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=SA&country=USA&raceDate=20170203&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=7#past-performance-race/7

[Adam]

1. Maybe 3rd or 4th

2. Wild Card. 1st American start. Adds lasix. Trainer pretty average.

3. 1st time turf. May be the speed. Has some class. Decent turf pedigree. Beware.

4. Classy. Looks to be overbet. Trainer 0-13 2nd off long layoffs. Avg. turf #s. Has a better option in here. 

5. Lot to like. Debut was good. Cuts back. 2nd time lasix. positive jock switch. W/P contender.

6. Logical show horse. Runs consistent. Likely not a win contestant. 3rd/4th key.

7. Might want to run a bit longer. Should be favored. Will have to close.

8. Scratched

9. Up in class. Stretching out. Should be part of the pace. Looks like a toss.

 

 

 

TOP Win Contenders 5,7

L/S Win Contender 3

Exotic keys - 1,6

$3.00 Superfecta - $36.00

5,7 / 5,7 / 1,3,4 / 1,3,4

$8 Trifecta Box - 3,5,7 - $48.00

$0.10 Superfectas - $12.00

5,7 / ALL / 1 / ALL

3 / 5,7 / 1,2,4 / ALL

[gotbeer]

1 desourmoux gets back on him.  the two desourmoux rides should put him there.  But when I see they are shipped to GG, and doesn't win.  Just tells me he is a future GG horse.

2 foreign horse.  Off a layoff, and lengthening in distance.  He did win 3 in a row.  But unsure on how that will transfer.

3 moves up in class, won last out on the slop.  lengthening, outside of last out. 

4 moving down in class.  won at the 80k level.  worth considering.

5  Bendejo getting on.  did ok last out at this level and distance.  won at this distance.  If I say yes, he will lose, if I say no, he will win.  That is the Bendejo curse.

6.  Talamo jumps on.  Desourmoux jumps off, and Bendejo also rode him previously and jumps on a different horse.  Those are two warning signs for me.  He does well at the 20k and 40k races.  Not sure he can stay up with the 60k's though.

7  moves down in class.  smith does not ride back on him.  He has done well on past races that were tougher than this.  Something just doesn't look right on this class drop.  Especially with Smith ejecting. 

9  moves up in class.  has done ok against weaker.  Probably tail end of the exotics.

 

I'd go 4, 5 on top.  maybe cover with the 7, but it just looks like a weird move.  4, 5 with 4, 5, 7 with 4, 5, 7, 2 with 4, 5, 7, 2, 9

 

[Homebrewer]

Like the 5 both from an odds standpoint and the fact that Bejarano opts to ride her over the 9.

7 is an obvious contender and I like the breeding (Unusual Heat and a local socal circuit horse, Sandy Cheeks) 

Would like the 2 a little more if it wasn't T Baze aboard, but the horse knows how to win, and first time on a harder (firmer) turf course is always intriguing. GB races are hard to read because they only list 2 calls, but the horse looks game in the PPs. Has had a steady string of works in the past month and a half at SA (all these have been working at SA)

2 has a shot to upset and might be overlooked at the windows.

4 and 6 round out the trifecta/super.

Odds at 5 mins to post, and eyeing the horses would really determine how I bet this race, but if I had to bet it sight unseen...

$10 exacta box 2/5/7 $60.00

2 tri part whl

2/5/7

2/5/7

2/4/5/6 /3/7

$36.00

Of course this would all change if the turf is not hard and fast...so this is qualified by assuming the turf is hard and fast.

[Adam]

6 scratched. Ugh. Was my money horse

[Adam]

I revised my bets

[Adam]

I'll post the DRF Free Race everyday when I remember. We can tally up at the end of February and see how we all did. 

[Homebrewer]

It looks like the 1st at SA is off the turf?

Is it wet down there?

[Homebrewer]

If it comes off the turf, 3 could be gone from the gate and wire them.

Radar down there looks like it's showery along the 210.

If it stays on the grass I would just change my 6 in the tri to 3.

[gotbeer]

24 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

It looks like the 1st at SA is off the turf?

Is it wet down there?

It's been raining all day.  In Los Angeles, at least, it's wet, but not saturated.  Santa Anita is more in the foothills, so they may have gotten much more rain.

[Homebrewer]

The 1st was on the downhill so I can understand them not wanting to run it down the hill on wet grass. 

Soft going would probably favor the 2  and  5  which were my main picks anyhow.

[Adam]

Here' Saturday's race of the day  - The San Antonio

 

http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=SA&country=USA&raceDate=20170204&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=8#past-performance-race/8

[Homebrewer]

Next at SA..the 4th, is on the downhill turf course, 6.5F Cal Bred (or sired) 4YO Maidens.

5 of the 10 starters are sired by Unusual Heat.

[Adam]

San Antonio Stakes

 

I think the distance is the most important thing to consider in this race. 8.5F is, IMO too short for Hopportunity and Hard Aces. I will toss those two from the top two spots. This is a sneaky good betting race IMP because I think the "big names" are going to take a lot of action, while the pace looks to benefit some of the longer priced horses. Dalmore and El Huerfano should battle for the lead. If Dalmore can get the lead he could be dangerous. That said, Accelerate is a sneaky good horse, finishing 3rd at huge odds in the BC Dirt Mile. Mor Spirit is interesting 2nd off the layoff with Mike Smith, but unless he can find more than one gear as a 4 YO I see a lot more clunk ups in his future.

 

Dalmore is the more lightly races of the prices, so I'll lean on him more than El Huerfano in my bets. Accelerate should win.

 

$8 Superfecta:  7 / 5,6 / 1,5,6 / 1,4,5,6     $64

 

$20 Exacta 7 / 5                 $20

 

$4 Trifecta 5 / 6,7 / 1,6,7                $16.00

[Adam]

5 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Next at SA..the 4th, is on the downhill turf course, 6.5F Cal Bred (or sired) 4YO Maidens.

5 of the 10 starters are sired by Unusual Heat.

Bummer he retired. Square Eddie is probably the best Cal Sire now

[Homebrewer]

3 minutes ago, Adam said:

San Antonio Stakes

 

 

 

I think the distance is the most important thing to consider in this race. 8.5F is, IMO too short for Hopportunity and Hard Aces. I will toss those two from the top two spots. This is a sneaky good betting race IMP because I think the "big names" are going to take a lot of action, while the pace looks to benefit some of the longer priced horses. Dalmore and El Huerfano should battle for the lead. If Dalmore can get the lead he could be dangerous. That said, Accelerate is a sneaky good horse, finishing 3rd at huge odds in the BC Dirt Mile. Mor Spirit is interesting 2nd off the layoff with Mike Smith, but unless he can find more than one gear as a 4 YO I see a lot more clunk ups in his future.

 

 

 

Dalmore is the more lightly races of the prices, so I'll lean on him more than El Huerfano in my bets. Accelerate should win.

 

 

 

$8 Superfecta:  7 / 5,6 / 1,5,6 / 1,4,5,6     $64

 

 

 

$20 Exacta 7 / 5                 $20

 

 

 

$4 Trifecta 5 / 6,7 / 1,6,7                $16.00

We see this somewhat the same way...Hoppertunity after a 2 month freshening? I hope he eats a lot of money on the tote.

I see it as a 4 horse race 4-5-6-7 with favor going to the 6-7

$2 tri box 4/5/6/7    $48.00

$6 tri 6-7/6-7/1-4-5-9   $48.00

 

[Adam]

I just think the 4 will back up. He's a good allowance type. But if he outbreaks Dalmore... you never know.

[Homebrewer]

12 minutes ago, Adam said:

I just think the 4 will back up. He's a good allowance type. But if he outbreaks Dalmore... you never know.

I just went with form on that one....he's too good right now to not give a chance to, considering the connections.

I'd kick myself if he won it at 12-1, and playing with funny money always makes me brave as hell (lol) 

[Homebrewer]

Race 7 is up in 30 mins...it's moist but not soaked or muddy, and the race down the hill looked plenty firm, so I'll probably stick by my choices.

[Adam]

Me too. I put a real ticket in. Just a couple bucks. 

 

5-7-1,3

5-3-7-1,2,4

[Adam]

If I were at the track with a full day's bankroll I'd normally play 3 across the board at the current odds. He could finish last but these first time turfers, stretching out after showing speed sprinting on dirt, steal quite a few races. 

[Homebrewer]

I always like to look at "Will Pays" to see how the multi bettors saw the race on paper..

the P3 "will pays" favor the 5 over the 7 by 12.00 

[Adam]

At 6-1 I'd pass on the 3. 

[Homebrewer]

2 fell out of the gate...what a shock